The Buffalo Bills have one of the most potent offenses in the league. Last year they were 4th in points and second in yards per game and average points per game. They were running on average 65.1 offensive snaps per game. There is a lot to be excited about on this team and the hype around the running back position continues to be talked about despite all the drama surrounding Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen’s relationship. So what will the Bills' backfield be in 2023 and what does that mean for your fantasy team? Let's break it down below

What does the backfield split look like

Sean McDermot has been the head coach of the Buffalo Bills since 2017. In that time he has had offensive coordinators of Rick Dennison (17), Brian Daboll (18-21), and Ken Dorsey (22). While McDermott was previously a defensive coach he has had a hand in how the offense is run. Over that span only once has the Bills had a running back get over 50% of the team's total carries. That was back in McDermott's first season with LeSean McCoy as the lead back a year before they drafted quarterback Josh Allen. The system that the Bills have employed since then has been a two-running back system. If you average out the carries over the six-year span the running back on the offense averages 189 carried while the second running back averages 110.8. It's been a pretty even split. Outside of 2017 the highest carry share that a running back has had is 41%. So what will the split look like in 2023?

First, we need to look back at 2022. Backfield stalwart Devin Singletary led the way with rookie James Cook filling in. Cook had a rough start to his season fumbling on his first carry. He never managed to take over the backfield. The Bills did make a trade sending away Zach Moss in exchange for Nyhiem Hines but neither saw significant volume. Singletary finished the year with the most carries at 177 compared to Cook’s 125. That accounted for 41% and 29% of the team’s totals. Josh Allen accounted for 125 carries. You might think that it just took Cook some time to get acclimated to the NFL and the Bills system but when you look at the last 6 games of the season, Weeks 12-18, Singletary had 60 attempts and Cook and 45. Was Singletary really the better back on his carries? Volume would say yes but it could also be his knowledge of the system and the coaches' comfort with him. Digging into more advanced numbers it does look like Cook was the more effective rusher

Perhaps these snaps give us a glimpse into why the Bills didnt re-sign Singletary instead letting him come to terms with the Texans and instead signing former Patriot Damien Harris. 

Is Harris better than Singletary?

Before we look at Cook vs Harris for 2023 touches we need to know if Damien Harris is a better running back than Devin Singletary. Harris had a rough 2022 campaign. He only played 11 games, dealing with injuries that caused him to miss games in 3 different instances. It was a disappointing year for Harris who was coming off the 2021 season where he scored 15 touchdowns. Because of the injuries, he lost his starting role to Rhamondre Stevenson and never regained it. 

The two running backs have very similar numbers across the board. When it came to free agency Singletary got a 1-year $2.75M deal while Harris got 1 year $1.77M. Looking at other running backs D’onte Foreman received 1 year of $1.35M and Rashaad Penny got 1 year and could be the starter for the Bills. So is Harris better than the Singletary? The numbers put them pretty equal. The history of Harris having a season where he finished as a top-15 fantasy running back might sway people to say he is better but it's close to me. 

So where does that leave James Cook and Damien Harris for the 2023 season? 

The writing is on the wall that the Bills' backfield will be pretty close to a 50/50 split. It might lean more towards a 60/40 split but it certainly won’t be a bell cow situation. It's a question of who gets the larger share of the carries. Over the past 5 years, since they drafted Josh Allen, the Bills have averaged 447 total rushing attempts. Let's assume that Allen will have 100. That leaves 347 to split between Cook, Harris, Nyheim Hines, and the random player who gets a few. Splitting them equally would put both Harris and Cook at the 173 mark. I believe it probably leans more towards one of them getting 150, the other getting 120, and Hines getting 30. The other 47 go between Allen and the random other guys. It's a toss but I don't think it really matters. If I had to put money on it I would say Cook gets the larger side but Harris will still have value for fantasy football. Currently, Cook is being drafted as the RB16 as the 41st pick overall. Devin Singletary finished as the RB23 last season. That's a significant jump for Cook to make in his second year. Conversely, Damien Harris is being drafted as the RB40 at 112th overall. With Cook finishing as the Rb44 last season he has a great shot at matching if not even bettering that and will be a value at that draft price.

The hype for young players can often cloud our judgment. We all want the next Hall of Fame rusher and oftentimes overlook the reality of the situation and opportunity. Your fantasy team isn't always built with the top guys at each position. You need to have guys who have high floors to be able to win championships. Hype and ceiling only matter if they reach that which they rarely do. Dynasty you want to pick up Cook since Harris is on a 1-year prove-it deal and will be 27 looking for a longer deal next offseason. I wouldn't go out and bet the farm on Cook being the next big thing in the running back landscape and his price right now is probably too high. Cook is currently close to value to players like Roschon Johnson, A.J. Dillon and Cam Akers. I would take all of them except Dilon over Cook at this point.

Both Bills rushers will have value this year. Cook should be a solid flex play week in and week out while Harris could be a touchdown vulture putting his weekly numbers close to Cook. Hines should be the main pass-catching back and will have value in PPR leagues but probably not startable for fantasy. Its a great offense but the backfield isn't the focal point of it and will be shared to the point that they eat into each others volume and production.