Zach Owen

Tools of the Trade

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Tools of the Trade

By Zach Owen

This week, I wanted to take a moment to talk about Cam Akers and a general trading strategy. First, the trade I found on Reddit was Cam Akers for a projected late 22 1st.

Obviously Cam Akers has been injured since the preseason and might not play at all this year. There are some rumblings that he might be back for the NFL playoffs but nothing certain yet. For the sake of fantasy though, it’s safe to assume he will not score you any points this year which is the key factor here.

Contending

So while I think Akers is definitely worth the 1st, that’s not a great use of your draft picks if you’re contending. Buying young players is okay and sometimes beneficial as a contending team. The important thing though is you want young players that you think will eventually go up in value during the season. If you’re trading for young players as a contender, you obviously want players that you think will eventually score points (think Justin Jefferson or Ceedee Lamb from last year). Even if they don’t end up being starters for you, as long as they go up in value, you should be able to trade them for better starters than what you would have originally gotten.

The problem here though is that you really can’t do that with Akers. He’s not going to go up in value between now and the trade deadline because he’s not playing. No amount of hype posts on Instagram are going to increase his value enough at this point in the year. You might get lucky and be able to time it right, but with trade deadlines coming up, you’re better off trading for the player you actually want now. 

Rebuilding

Now rebuilding is a different situation because you have something very important on your side: time. You don’t need to score points. Akers is the perfect type of player to buy with a late first right now. He’s in this weird situation where his value could go up specifically between the fantasy playoffs and the NFL playoffs. Normally picks are around their lowest value this time of year, so I recommend holding onto them. Normally, if I am trading picks for players, I do it around the NFL draft or right before/during my fantasy rookie draft. Akers is just a very unique case where I think his value will go up more than the value of the pick over the next couple months. Even if you don’t trust his health situation and think he’s going to flop when he comes back. Once he gets the greenlight to play, you should be able to sell him then for more than just a late 1st. Someone is bound to get mixed up in the hype.

 

 

Thanks for reading and I hope this helped. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @NeutralZoneFF if you have any Fantasy related questions.

Tools of the Trade

by

Tools of the Trade

By Zach Owen

This week, I found a trade poll on Twitter which made me want to highlight my thoughts on a  couple players. The trade (below) is James Conner + a 3rd for Jakobi Meyers + an early 2nd. The person didn’t say so I’m going to assume these are 2022 picks.


So obviously the two players I wanted to talk about are Conner and Meyers. First I’ll talk about Conner. Bottom line, this is as valuable as he will probably ever be again. He’s coming off a MASSIVE 3 TD game and should be the lead back in ARI for a few weeks with Edmonds gone. So if you are a rebuilder, sell Conner now. If you can get an early-mid 2nd or an underperforming young player (think Brandon Aiyuk) I’d do it. This is how you rebuild in Dynasty leagues. You have to try and sell players when the hype is there. 

 

Now for contenders, I would be hesitant to buy into the Conner hype. He’s been a TD machine this year, even without Kyler Murray, but it’s risky to bank on that type of production. Conner also hasn’t played a full year of football since he entered the league. Mad props to him and what all he went through with cancer and bouncing back from it, but from a football perspective you have to be careful. I’m just not convinced he can stay healthy being the lead back for multiple games. Then even if he can keep going, Chase Edmonds is only expected to be out a few weeks and I expect he’ll be back Week 13 after the Cardinals’ bye. Still, if you are contending and desperate for a starting RB, you could do worse than Conner. Just don’t go overboard buying him. 

 

Next, Jakobi Meyers. Opposite of Conner, Meyers is a buy low right now for me. His fantasy points aren’t great but he’s still getting tons of opportunities. He’s averaging 8 targets a game. Most players with that many targets are also averaging 15 or more fantasy points a game. It’s not like he’s bad and the Patriots are going to move on from him. It’s been 9 weeks. If they were going to move on from him they would have by now. The biggest thing Meyers is missing is TDs. He literally broke the NFL record for the most receiving yards without a TD this past week. I’m not saying he’s going to jump into WR1 scoring each week, but I like having guys that get targets and Meyers definitely does that.

 

I will toss out that you might want to wait a little bit before pulling the trigger though. As of writing this, Odell Beckham Jr. has been released from the Browns, cleared waivers, and has not chosen a new team. One of the rumored teams for OBJ is the Patriots which would throw a wrench into the “buy Meyers” advice. I don’t expect OBJ to go to the Patriots, based on OBJ wanting to go to a contending team with a veteran QB, so I wouldn’t panic if you have him. Just wait a day or two, once OBJ chooses a team, if you want to buy him. When you do, I would see if you can get him for a late 2nd/early 3rd or a middle of the road older player like Melvin Gordon. Especially coming off a down game, I’m guessing some managers are tired of Meyers not putting up points. Once Meyers gets that first TD, his value will rise back to where it should be (around an early-mid 2nd).

 

So with all that, back to the original trade. Given that I am in the “sell Conner” and “buy Meyers” camp, I went with the Meyers side. I’d take the early 2nd over Conner and Meyers over the 3rd so it was an easy choice for me. Now again, if you’re a contender and really need a RB, this isn’t a bad trade. I’d try to trade someone other than Meyers but you gotta do what you gotta do when you’re contending.

 

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Thanks for reading and I hope this helped. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @NeutralZoneFF if you have any Fantasy related questions.