Tommy Harvey

Stock Watch: Devy – Week 2

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Stock Watch: Devy - Week 2

By Tommy Harvey

Stock Up

Raheim Sanders

I have been reserving my opinion about Raheim Sanders until I was able to see him in a full time role. My gosh, he is impressive! I really like what I have seen from him and I can't wait to see more. There is very little doubt in my mind that he will be a top RB in the '24 NFL Draft.

Mohamed Ibrahim

After tearing his achilles last season, Mohamed Ibrahim decided to return to Minnesota for his 6th year of eligibility. Before last season, Ibrahim would have probably been one of the highest drafted RBs if he had entered the NFL Draft. Now. He is trying to prove he still has NFL ability. At 24 years old, Ibrahim is already approaching old age. So now is the time for him to prove he can still play, and so far he is.

Jordan Addison

WR1? Jordan Addison is definitely making his case for it. He was already a great WR, but he seems to be getting better. Addison is explosive and electric with the ball in his hands. He could be on his way to his 2nd consecutive Biletnikoff Award.

Jalen McMillan

Kalen DeBoer has taken his high power offense to Washington this season, and Jalen McMillan is reaping the benefits! QB Michael Penix is living up to what he was expected to do while at Indiana, and McMillan is his numero uno. I expect him to climb up draft boards, whenever he decides to enter his name.

Others on the Rise

Will Levis

Jase McClellan

EJ Smith

Rashee Rice

Dane Key

Stock Down

Anthony Richardson

Poor vision. Poor decision making. Poor Execution. A week after looking like a potential franchise QB, Anthony Richardson fell back to Earth. He looked confused and mostly incapable against Kentucky on Saturday. That type of inconsistency doesn't warrant 1st round hype.

Phil Jurkovec

Not a fan. Never been a fan. He doesn't do anything special and seems like more of a liability to me than anything.

Lew Nichols

I have always been a little torn on Lew Nichols. He gets the ball a ton and has been a very good producer. However, he has not been very good so far to start the season. Is this a case of defenses keying in on him after last season's monster year? If so, how will he be able to respond? That's worth monitoring.

Jermaine Burton

If he can't produce at Alabama, where can he produce? Jermaine Burton was supposed to be the next great WR after transferring in from Georgia, but he has yet to live up to any of the hype. The measurables may be there, but I haven't seen that translate to production on the field.

Others on the Decline

Tyler Buchner

Brennan Armstrong

Tanner McKee

Stock Watch: Devy Week 1

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Stock Watch: Devy Week 1

By Tommy Harvey

Stock Up

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Maye won the QB job during fall camp and has come out ON FIRE! Through two games so far, he has lit up Florida A&M and Appalachian St for 646 yards and 9 TDs. The former 4* prospect has shown elite ability to open the season and his stock is pointed straight up.  After putting eyes on him over the past two weeks, Maye will be moving up in my rankings.  Drake Maye TO THE MOON!!!

Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn

Admittedly, I have never been very high on Tank as an upper echelon draft prospect, but I am beginning to come around on him.  He looks like a completely different RB to me this season.  He has good burst and agility for his size and exhibited very good vision…albeit against inferior competition.  He is still my RB5 in the ‘23 draft class, but he is much closer to RB4 than he is RB6.

Omarrion Hampton/George Pettaway, RB, North Carolina

The two true freshmen at North Carolina have taken over the UNC backfield since British Brooks was lost for the season.  They were both highly recruited, but neither was expected to have an overly-huge role this season.  That all changed in fall camp and they both look like the real deal.

Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona

For those of you who have been slow to jump on the Jacob Cowing hype train…there is still time.  He was great while at UTEP, and he is showing how great he is going to be at Arizona.  The Wildcats are going to be a surprise team in the PAC12, and Cowing is a big reason why.

Dane Key, WR, Kentucky

The true freshman that was supposed to be the guy at UK was Barion Brown.  While Brown is impressive, I’m more keyed in on Dane Key.  Key started alongside Brown and Tayvion Robinson this week and looks like the future in Lexington to me.  Will Levis has tons of weapons to work with.  If he doesn’t succeed, that’s on him.  

George Takacs, TE, Boston College

I’ll tell you…George Takacs snuck up on me a little bit.  I was aware of him while he was at Notre Dame and his subsequent transfer to Boston College.  However, I was not fully aware of his talent.  Obviously, any TE at Notre Dame should be taken seriously (watch out for Eli Raridon and Holden Staes), but Takacs got lost in the shuffle a little bit.  

Others on the Rise

Hunter Dekkers, QB, Iowa St

Tyler Van Dyke, QB, Miami

Raheim Sanders, RB, Arkansas

Kenny McIntosh, RB, Georgia

Chase Brown, RB, Illinois

Quinshon Judkins, RB, Mississippi

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio St

Kobe Prentice, WR, Alabama

Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

Stock Down

Devin Leary, QB, North Carolina St

Potentially a 1st round draft pick in the ‘23 NFL Draft, Leary was very…meh…this week against East Carolina.  I’ve never been sold on him as a high end prospect, and week 1 did nothing to change my mind.  If anything, he moved down my board.

Jaxson Dart, QB, Mississippi

After transferring from USC to Ole Miss, Dart was expected to be the next big thing under Lane Kiffin.  However, during camp, he barely held off Luke Altmyer for the QB1 job and did not look good in week 1.  He still has plenty of time, but he has a lot to prove.

Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M

Already fairly low on my board (RB30), Devon Achane did nothing against Sam Houston St  to improve his stock in my opinion.  Being a small-ish RB does not bode well for Achane when it comes to being an NFL RB…no matter how fast he is.  Putting mediocre play on film doesn’t do him any favors either.

Ja'Corey Brooks, WR, Alabama

Many speculated Ja’Corey Brooks would take over the WR room in Tuscaloosa this season.  Even with the arrivals of Jermaine Burton and Tyler Harrell, Brooks was expected to take the next step and become the next dominant WR for the Crimson Tide.  That seems to have been overstated, as Brooks was overtaken by Traeshon Holden on the depth chart.  With an overload of talent at Alabama, Brooks may get lost in the crowd.

Julian Fleming, WR, Ohio St

Listed as a starter heading into the season, Fleming did not play against Notre Dame due to injury.  In the meantime…he may have lost his spot to emerging superstar Emeka Egbuka.  Without the opportunity to be on the field, Fleming won’t have much on tape to have substantial enough draft capital to be relevant.  

Others on the Decline

Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

Cade McNamara, QB, Michigan

Harrison Bailey, QB, UNLV

Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M

Logan Diggs, RB, Notre Dame

Gary Bryant Jr., WR, USC

Christian Leary, WR, Alabama

 

The Devy Minute: Cameron Ward

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The Devy Minute: Cameron Ward

By Tommy Harvey

Cameron Ward

QB

Washington State

6’2 220 pounds

Cameron Ward threw for 6,908 yards and 71 TDs in two seasons at the FCS level at Incarnate Word.  In his freshman season, Ward won the Jerry Rice Award, which is given to the top freshman in FCS.  In his sophomore season, he was named 2nd Team All-America and was a finalist for the Walter Payton Award, which is given to the top overall player in FCS.  Ward then transferred up to Washington St in the offseason, where big things are expected for him.  

There is some division amongst people in regards to Cameron Ward.  There are those who think Ward is not a legitimate NFL prospect due to the scheme he played in at Incarnate Word and the lack of competition he played against.  Some may also point to the fact that he may have developed some bad habits due to having to overcompensate for a lackluster offensive line. 

I am of the opinion that Ward is a superstar in the making.  With his jump up to FBS this season after transferring to Washington State, he will now be able to showcase his skills to a much broader audience.  His big arm combined with his creative ability make you think of Patrick Mahomes…not saying he will be Patrick Mahomes, but he reminds me of him.  If he can clean up his understanding of pre-snap conditions and improve his footwork, Ward can shoot up draft boards this season.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Baker Mayfield

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Dynasty Dilemma: Baker Mayfield

By Tommy Harvey

 

Baker has been freed!!!

Cleveland did Baker Mayfield dirty and you won't be able to convince me otherwise.  After telling him they weren't involved with Deshaun Watson, they then went and traded for Watson and gave him a MASSIVE contract.  Mayfield requested a trade and had not budged on that, even with the uncertainty around Watson's future.  After months of wondering what the Browns were going to do with Baker, they have finally dealt him to Carolina.

Baker stans rejoice!!!

 

Prior to 2021, Baker Mayfield was a good QB on a good team.  How many times has anybody ever been able to say that about the Cleveland Browns or one of their QBs? Now, Mayfield is coming off a pretty awful season, due to a shoulder injury to his non-throwing shoulder.  The torn labrum has since been repaired, but you will always worry if he will re-injure it at some point.  Can he make it back to his 2020 playing form?

 

Baker Mayfield is a good QB that has that special "IT" factor you would typically want from a franchise QB.  He may be on the smaller side, but the league has been moving more towards QBs of his stature in recent years.  He is now moving on from a rather pathetic Cleveland Browns franchise to another that has plenty of weapons for him to get comfortable with.

Christian McCaffrey is making his way back from consecutive seasons with an ankle injury.  If healthy, he is the best RB in the league.  DJ Moore, Terrace Marshall, and Robby Anderson are formidable group of WRs...and let's be honest...it will probably be the best group of WRs he has played with in the NFL.

Getting the Cleveland Browns stench off him will do him wonders.  His personality and like-ability will endear him to Panthers fans.  He now has a real shot at being a franchise QB with Carolina.

 

The Devy Minute: Braelon Allen

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The Devy Minute: Braelon Allen

By Tommy Harvey

Braelon Allen

RB 

6’2 238lbs

Ron Dayne, Montee Ball, James White, Melvin Gordon, Jonathan Taylor, and now…Braelon Allen.  The Freshman RB had a breakout season for the Badgers in 2021, with over 1,200 yards and 12 TDs.  Initially expected to share carries with Chez Mellusi and Jalen Berger, Allen emerged as a dominant force after Mellusi was injured and Berger was dismissed from the team.  

Out of high school, Allen was a Safety and Runningback with many projections seeing him as a Linebacker.  He quickly showed he was suited for the offensive backfield. His 6.8 yards per carry finished tied for 3rd in the country among RBs with over 100 carries with TreVeyon Henderson out of Ohio State.  He also finished 3rd in the Big 10 with 1,268 yards rushing.

Headed into his Sophomore season, Allen is an early favorite for the Heisman Trophy.  Currently tied for 12th at +3300 (according to Bovada), the Badger RB is certainly expected to have another huge season.  Allen is my overall RB3 and is my RB2 for the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

Follow me on Twitter @DynastyProsTom

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Ezekiel Elliot

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Dynasty Dilemma: Ezekiel Elliot

By Tommy Harvey

 

Ezekiel Elliott was an immediate success for the Cowboys after being selected 4th overall in 2016 out of Ohio State. The former Buckeye made the Pro Bowl and was named an All-Pro in his rookie season. After serving a suspension in his 2nd season, he again made the Pro Bowl in his 3rd season. Since then, however, his production and health have declined. So we have to ask the question: What is Elliott's dynasty value moving forward?

 

The Reason to Sell

Zeke has had a litany of issues since he entered the league. A suspension in his 2nd season cost him 6 games, his volume has decreased every season, and he has become less durable over his career. 

 

Steady Regression

Elliott's yards per game production has declined every year since he entered the NFL. From a staggering 108.7 ypg in his rookie season to a career low 58.9 ypg last season, Zeke has regressed. Even though he played in all 17 games in 2021, Elliot barely squeaked over the 1,000 yard mark (1,002).

 

Capable Backup

In a lot of people's eyes, Elliott was outplayed by backup RB Tony Pollard last season. Pollard averaged 5.5 yards per carry compared to Zeke's 4.2 ypc. He also only averaged 11 ypg less than Elliot on less than 9 carries per game (Zeke averaged more than 4 carries more per game).

 

 

Reasons to Buy

It's not all bad for Ezekiel Elliot. He is the starting RB on one of the best offenses in the NFL. That means opportunities in the passing game and plenty of chances to score TDs. Both of which he has taken advantage of in his career.

 

PPR Production

Zeke was the overall RB6 in PPR leagues in 2021. There is nothing wrong with having a RB1 on your team. He secured 47 receptions on 65 targets and found the endzone a total of 12 combined times last season. 

 

Untradeable for the Cowboys

After signing a massive 6-year/$90 million deal prior to the 2019 season, Elliott's dead cap number ($30.08 million in 2022) makes it virtually impossible for Dallas to trade him. They would lose nearly $12 million against their cap if they were to trade or cut him. If they waited until next season to cut him, they would actually save close to $5 million. Thus, he should be remaining in Dallas in 2022. 

 

Verdict

Ezekiel Elliott has been a tremendous RB for the Cowboys since he entered the league. He has surpassed the 1,000 yard mark in 4 of his 6 seasons (he would have in his 2nd season if not for a 6 game suspension). He is a TD scorer, scoring 68 total TDs in his career. 

In my opinion, however, his best football is behind him. His ypg regression and volume decrease is highly alarming and the fact Dallas has another very capable and less expensive RB makes Zeke expendable in the future.