Tim Lazenby

Dynasty Dilemma: Josh Jacobs 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Josh Jacobs 

by Tim Lazenby

 

In 2019, the then Oakland Raiders used their first round pick to select running back Josh Jacobs, out of Alabama.  When it comes to elite talent at the position in college, there aren’t too many programs better.  After pumping out names like Mark Ingram and King Derrick Henry, many had hoped Jacobs would follow their success.

 

The Reason to Sell

People seem torn on Josh Jacobs value.  In one sense, he’s been a pretty consistent running back.  In another, he’s yet to show that next level that fantasy owners are looking for.  The advanced metrics don’t show him to be a beast.  So are we getting someone we can trust on our squad or just a middling player at the coveted position?

 

Lack of Explosion

One could argue that Josh Jacobs is always one you can count on for something, but lacks the power or agility to blow up a game.  He never seems to be one to strap the team on his back and overpower the opposition.  At the position, consistency is nice, but we need someone who can be a true game changer.  In PPR settings, Jacobs only had two weeks in the top 10 at his position and he averaged out at the 18th best back in a weekly points finish metric.  These numbers aren’t eye popping to be certain.

 

Crowded Backfield

A total of six backs rushed for the Las Vegas Raiders last season.  Josh’s opportunities were stolen by highly paid, Kenyan Drake, and even the lowly fill in Peyton Barber at times.  Although Barber isn’t much of a threat next season, Drake carries a cap hit of over 8 million dollars next season, and most of it is guaranteed.  He’s certain to vulture a number of touches, including pass catches, where PPR gold is cherished.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

We have to understand the true value that Josh Jacobs brings to a team.  Not just in the points he will accrue, but in the job security, which is hard to come by as a running back.  There aren’t many cases of a first round running back not being featured.  Players like Ronald Jones and Rashaad Penny are exceptions, but even they showed value long after dynasty owners had written them off.  Long term value is the name of the game.

 

Continued Improvement

Although this statement sounds like a straight up lie, hear me out.  I can’t argue with the fact that his rushing numbers have gone down each year in the NFL.  What I can say is that his targets have gone up substantially each season, from 27 to 45 to 64 last season.  Also noteworthy is that his touchdown efficiency has also improved yearly.

 

Strong Finish

It may be surprising to know that in a twelve team league, Josh Jacobs finished as an RB1 last year.  Even more shocking is how successful he was despite such a slow start.  Through week 11, he only averaged 9.8 rushes per game, but from week 12 on through the playoffs, the numbers went up to 17.6.  In the playoffs, it was even higher; at a whopping 19.5 per game.  Past week 11, he also averaged over 4.5 targets a game.  

 

Verdict

Josh Jacobs get a lot of hate.  He’s rarely seen as an RB1, let alone a top end RB2.  He’s also seen as a committee back, but is that really true?  Barber only had one game as starter and one sharing, never to go above 6 rushes otherwise.  And Drake only had one game over 8 rushes.  It’s fact that despite the slow start, he still finished 10th in opportunity share, 11th in carries and 9th in targets among running backs.

 

Throughout his career, although it doesn’t seem like it, his numbers show him to be an RB1.  The strong finish to the season, combined with better coaching and a playoff entry make this team, Jacobs included, hungrier than ever.  It’s time to see Jacobs for what he really is:  just what you want to lead your team to a fantasy championship.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Cooper Kupp 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Cooper Kupp 

by Tim Lazenby

 

The 2021 National Football League season gave us plenty of intrigue, like any other year, but something magical happened.  We may have seen the best single season ever from a wide receiver.  If you asked who would do this, virtually no one would have predicted the player to be Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams.

 

The Reason to Sell

What a historic season.  191 targets; 145 receptions; 1947 yards; 16 touchdowns; and 114.5 yards per game.  It’s like something out of a video game.  Add to that an Offensive Player of the Year Award and Superbowl MVP.  Can he repeat anything close to this standard of excellence again?  The Cooper Kupp situation is truly perplexing.

 

Likelihood of Repeat

If I were to gamble on the likelihood of Cooper Kupp repeating anything close to what he did last season, I wouldn’t even bet a dollar.  As amazing as he is, he’s done something almost no one has and something he hasn’t even flirted with before in his career.  With the exception of this year, he has crossed 1000 yards and double digit touchdowns only once.  Before last season, his average yards per game sits at 66.5.

 

Upcoming Changes

No better change happened last year for Cooper Kupp than inheriting Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff.  The bad news is that negative changes could unfold this off season as well.  Even with injuries and free agency, Andrew Whitworth, Aaron Donald and even Sean McVay have hinted at retirement.  Now, I don’t know how likely some of those may be, but it threatens the gold that Kupp puts out to fantasy owners.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

We all know the wide receiver position lasts the second longest in football, after only the quarterback.  At only 28, Kupp may be uncorking the best of what is yet to come for years.  Surrounded by a cast most of the league covets, last year’s WR1 is incredible.  Can we pass up on gaining this phenom and watching him succeed elsewhere?

 

His Target Share

No matter how involved McVay tries to get the rest of this offense, no one comes close to bringing it like Cooper Kupp.  Despite teammates dropping like flies, Kupp took the opportunities thrown to him better than anyone could predict. No one throws more to wide receivers in the league than the Rams and the Rams throw to no one more than Kupp.  The slot receiver is nothing short of magical and target share is everything.

 

Age Isn’t Everything

I think the biggest disservice we do to ourselves in the dynasty community is the travesty of ageism.  The common thread for owners is to always salivate at the newest young pup and abandon our aging studs.  Cooper Kupp may be 28, but at his position, that’s prime time.  Countless receivers have shone past that point.  Even the great Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison didn’t have their best seasons until 30.

 

Verdict

If we fool ourselves into thinking last season is repeatable, we’re not being fair to Cooper Kupp.  Honestly, I’ve loved him since he came into the league and I try desperately to get him in every draft I do, whether that be dynasty or not.  The talent is undeniable and he’s one that people overlook; seemingly not remembering or realizing just how good he is.  His name doesn’t ring like others at his level for whatever reason.

 

Here’s the problem: it’s not sustainable.  Even though I want him on every team I own, I just can’t afford it.  He was an absolute steal every year before he showed what he was capable of.  A discount since 2017, the world is now aware of how valuable the pass catcher from East Washington is.  And for that reason, it’s time to invest elsewhere.  It pains me to say it, and although I don’t want to, I have to take advantage of the profit.

Dynasty Dilemma: Travis Kelce 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Travis Kelce 

by Tim Lazenby

 

Legendary is not a word to be tossed around lightly.  It’s often overused with words like goat, hall of famer and simply the best.  All of these words have been attributed to Travis Kelce at one time or another.  Whether it be in real life or any fantasy format, if Travis Kelce is on your squad, his opponents are nervous.

 

 

The Reason to Sell

Despite all his success, Travis Kelce like many others simply cannot stay at the top forever.  That being said, despite his age and wear and tear, Kelce remains near the top of the perennial tight end ranks.  How long will he stay atop the tight end mountain?

 

Age

This problem plagues not just football players, but mankind alike.  Simply put, everyone ages and no one is impervious to Father Time.  Kelce has been a mainstay at the top of the tight end ranks for years, literally.  Since taking over the top spot from Gronkowski years ago, no one has even come close to threatening his crown.  This couldn’t last forever and we’d be foolish to not see the chance of a decline.

 

Challengers Arrived

In start up leagues, particularly non dynasty, the fall off isn’t as drastic, but in established dynasty leagues, it’s much more severe.  Ever since 2017, Kelce has been at the top or near the top in rankings, but this upcoming season, it’s different.  The mighty Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts are ahead on virtually everyone’s list and there are a couple more ahead on some.  He’s still great, but for how much longer?

 

 

The Reason to Buy

While it’s true that Kelce is aging, his regression has been incredibly slow.  Despite being 32, he doesn’t look like it.  No one can fault him for not repeating his historic season of 2020, but even last season was simply astonishing.  There are abnormalities and you have to wonder if people are selling him short just because he’s 32. 

 

Unparalleled Health

I can’t recall a single tight end that has reigned as tight end number one for so long.  Even more amazing is that he can be trusted to be on the field each and every game.  Since 2014, he has missed a grand total of three games.  This level of health is unheard of, especially in such a physical position.  Unbelievable in an understatement.

 

Established Numbers

Here are some numbers that are insane.  In the past six seasons, Travis Kelce has not finished under 1000 yards.  His entire career, he has never dipped below 12 yards per reception.  Since 2015, Kelce has never had less than 100 receptions in a season.  He’s also had more than 80 targets six times and double digit touchdowns more than once.  If there is a more consistent tight end in history, the list is virtually non existent.

 

Verdict

Travis Kelce is built different.  He’s already sixth in receiving yards in National Football League history.  The two guys at the top have played twice the amount of career games that Kelce has.  So to say he doesn’t have many years left is ignorant and downright disrespectful.  The same people were telling us to sell Brady six years ago.

 

The value that comes with the name Travis Kelce is unmatched at his position.  There is the new hotness in the form of names like Pitts and Andrews, but we have to wonder if it will last.  I must say, however, despite his greatness and continuing path to excellence, the fantasy community is becoming blind to his value.  Illogical perceptions have made some people lose sight of reality.  And due to this, he is way cheaper than he should be.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Chris Godwin 

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Dynasty Dilemmas - Chris Godwin 

By Tim Lazenby

 

A lot is changing for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading into the 2022 NFL Season.  None bigger than the retirement of legendary Tom Brady, but there are many impending free agents, such as Leonard Fournette and the focus today, Chris Godwin.

 

The Reason to Sell

No one can deny how good Chris Godwin is.  Despite being part of a three headed receiving monster for the Buccaneers, his numbers showed better.  And even with all his success, people are wondering what to do with this phenom from Penn State.

 

Impending free agency

There are many question marks surrounding Godwin and one of them is his status as a free agent.  The problem is wondering where he’ll play next season is big enough, but more than that, who’s throwing the ball?  Even if he resigns, the person under center in Tampa Bay is in flux.  Will it be Kyle Trask, Blaine Gabbert or one of the coveted names like Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson?  Only time will tell and that makes people nervous.  Uncertainty causes even the most iron willed to shudder.

 

The big injury

Science today is incredible.  The recovery time from massive injuries isn’t what it used to be, even ten years ago.  Players who wouldn’t play until the next season are sometimes back on the field part way through it.  But some are more severe than others.  Chris Godwin’s injury timetable puts him at six to nine months, but that’s only an estimate.  Do we really want to invest such a price on someone who may not be ready?

 

 

The Reason to Buy

I’m going to make a statement.  Chris Godwin may be the most underrated receiver in the NFL, when it comes to top talent.  He doesn’t receive the praise that many of his peers do who are at similar talent levels.  Here are some reasons to snag him.

 

Price point

If it weren’t for the question marks mentioned earlier, there is no doubt in my mind he wouldn’t be so cheap.  I’ve seen him go as low as the eighth round in start up dynasty drafts and next to no trades for him in established ones.  It’s simply baffling to see the value so low for what he can do.  And the lack of trade movement is equally shocking.

 

Established Talent

Consistency is the name of the game.  Although he’s probably not going to be the WR1 in any format, he is a solid choice for a WR2, flirting for top status.  With the exception of his rookie season, he averages out at 14 points per game in PPR formats.  Now that Antonio Brown is gone, you can only imagine how much more successful he’ll be.

 

Verdict

In case you aren’t aware of his value, last season, he finished as WR17 in PPR, despite missing four games.  On a points per game basis, that ties him with underrated Diontae Johnson.  Here is a list of key players that finished lower:  Stefon Diggs, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, Jaylen Waddle, AJ Brown and CeeDee Lamb.  All of whom are routinely above Godwin in dynasty rankings.

 

He’s only 25 years old, playing in a red hot offense, and now with less players to take his targets.  Proven consistency and a chance to head up to the next tier of greatness makes this a simple decision.  He’ll never be this cheap again and it’d be foolish to ignore the value.  Make the right decision and don’t look back.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Deshaun Watson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Deshaun Watson

by Tim Lazenby

 

Over the past two seasons, one of the biggest question marks in the National Football League was Deshaun Watson.  A rare blend of elite passing, rushing threat and vision, the Houston Texans quarterback has often been on the tip of everyone’s tongues.

 

The Reason to Sell

There’s only a handful of quarterbacks who can do what Deshaun Watson does.  Is he going to pass? Is he going to rush?  No matter what, he’s one of the few that is a constant worry for defenders to change a game script on the spot.  But is it enough?

 

Time away from the game

This issue is not even on the top of most people’s worries, and even forgotten for some, but time away from the game is no easy hurdle to overcome.  It’s a rarity to see a player absent from the game, only to come back and succeed instantly.  It takes time to work up to the professional level, let alone stand on the mountaintop at his position.

 

Current Reality Today

Before all the allegations, which are obviously troublesome, he was clearly unhappy with his organization.  Nothing but turmoil and drama surrounded he and the Texans and demands of a trade were at the forefront.  Hard to trust such a situation with your dynasty cornerstone.  Add to that the legal battle, and the situation is murky indeed.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

Looking at the talent alone, can we really ignore the opportunity to snatch up this gun slinging, speedster from Clemson?  It’s simply impossible to ignore his abilities.  In dynasty, the quarterback is your foundation, and the competition is slim.

 

Dual Threat Ability

I can list on one hand the number of quarterbacks in the league who have the rushing upside that Deshaun does.  And to find one who isn’t injured, old or just a rusher becomes an even shorter list.  It doesn’t hurt that he’s never been cheaper either.  If you can name someone else like him at his current pricepoint, I’d call you a liar.

 

Team Investment

Despite all the drama, whether it be legal or trade demands, the Texans refused to ship him off for even a penny less than what he’s worth.  There are also a number of other teams chomping at the bit, just for a chance to dream about having Watson steer their ship.  Houston even had him sit all year rather than trade him for something and that says a lot more to me about his value in this league.

 

Verdict

Fun fact: In my home league, in Watson’s rookie year, I traded him straight up for Antonio Brown.  Brown went on to get 19 points per game in PPR formats, which would have landed him second last year behind only Cooper Kupp.  Watson got injured, and I was still happy to have the franchise QB.  This is how valuable Deshaun Watson is.

 

But, despite how valuable Watson is, at just 26 years old, there is simply too much murkiness to hold any longer.  An entire year of fantasy value was lost.  If I were able to get even close to what’s he’s worth, it’s a simple transaction.  Not knowing the substantial legal outcomes is scary enough, but we don’t even know where he’ll play.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Alvin Kamara

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Dynasty Dilemma: Alvin Kamara

by Tim Lazenby

 

Alvin Kamara is facing some legal issues this offseason.  How does that affect his standing with the Saints?  How does that affect his standing on your fantasy team?  New Orleans have a new HC, but their offense should look pretty similar to what it has in the past.  

 

The Reason to Sell:

Ever since he came to the league, he’s been dominant.  I’ll admit, I was wrong in his rookie season.  Sharing a backfield with legendary, Adrian Peterson and starter, Mark Ingram, I didn’t see room for him to shine, but he stole the show and hasn’t looked back. 

 

No supporting cast

I see your point.  Aside from the possibility of Michael Thomas returning to form, there isn’t alot of established help on this team.  The reality that Kamara can continue his worth when the entire focus on him is slim.  Being the entire offense can work for fantasy numbers, but how long can that be sustained without defenses figuring him out and longevity not being in question?

 

Current Reality Today

Before the Pro Bowl, there wasn’t much concern other than the first point for Alvin.  In fact, he’d never rushed more, and if you take away that monster six touchdown game last season, I’d argue he was even better this year in fantasy.  That being said, the legal uncertainty is real.  Not to mention he’s 26, which is older for his position.

 

 

The Reason to Buy

Is this time now to cash in on such a talent?  He rushed more than ever last season and it’s hard to list a more effective pass catcher in the National Football League. Here’s some food for thought, while you’re mulling things over:

 

No Supporting Cast

Ironically, the issue for selling can be looked at as a reason to buy.  Although the risk for injury or flat out being stopped is greater, Kamara ranked no lower than sixth in virtually every opportunity share metric in the league.  Ignoring last season, which was unsustainable, he only fell 0.3 points per game in PPR than 2019, while his yards per carry went up by a full yard per game.

 

His Usage

Yeah, he’s 26 already.  When it comes to running backs, in dynasty, this can become worrisome.  Typically, 26 is seen as that top of the mountain in fantasy value.  After, the Adrian Petersons of this world as insanely rare.  But, you have to remember those running backs used as heavy pass catchers last much longer in the league.  I would argue that we could expect another two or three years more of fantasy gold than we would of a pure runner.

 

Verdict

Like I said before, I was wrong about the man in his first season.  His rare blend of vision, elite pass catching and prototypical perfect size for his position are undeniable.  Look at the league and try to find one with all these categories, and you’ll be searching for a while.

 

We cannot, however, ignore his current real life circumstances.  I’m not a judge or lawyer, so I can’t pretend to even understand what will happen to him.  The urge is to sell before he’s unusable, but the talent is so good, it’s impossible to throw him away for less than he’s worth.

.. unless the price is right.