Tim Lazenby

Waiver Wire: Week 2

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Waiver Wire: Week 2

By Tim Lazenby

 

With Week 1 in the books, we now look to keep our team at the top or claw our way back to contention. One of the best ways to keep your team from falling behind is grabbing up the best available talent on the waiver wire. Whether you are working with priority, FAAB or straight up first come first serve, here are some key names to look out for. Before we begin, I’m ignoring obvious handcuffs and replacements for players injured before the season began. I’m also not noting rookies with high fantasy draft capital. And while some of these players will be taken, I’ve intentionally listed players with lower ownerships, making it more likely for them to be available.

 

New Injuries to Take Note Of

 

Keenan Allen - Doubtful with hamstring

It seems unlikely Allen will play Thursday in the thriller versus Kansas City. The long term is unknown, but in the meantime, try to acquire Josh Palmer. If he’s taken, which he should be in dynasty, Jalen Guyton or DeAndre Carter should be available in most leagues. You need a piece of this offense moving forward.

Chris Godwin - Doubtful with hamstring

Drafting or acquiring Chris Godwin was dicey considering the massive injury he’d just come off of, and it saddens me to see him go down. He will most likely be out for Week 2, but Tampa Bay doesn’t seem worried about the long term. I’ve cautioned against Julio Jones, but with the injury, it makes him worthy for the time being. I’d ignore the rest of the receiving core depth in Tampa Bay.

Tee Higgins - Questionable with concussion

It remains possible that Higgins misses no time with the concussion as this isn’t a recurring issue, but if you’re worried, the always underrated Tyler Boyd is a great solution. If he’s gone, you can take a chance on the other Mike Thomas, but I’d only do it as a last resort.

Najee Harris - Questionable with foot

The injury doesn’t seem troubling to Pittsburgh, but it goes without saying that someone in your league probably already has the handcuff in Jaylen Warren. If he’s there, however, go and get him. It’s important to know that no other Steelers’ running back is usable in fantasy this season even if Najee is out long term.

Alvin Kamara - Questionable with ribs

I doubt there will be much of an issue here, but it’s worth noting. Mark Ingram is definitely worth an add, but he may not be available. Don’t go adding Tony Jones unless you are in an extremely deep dynasty league.

Eli Mitchell - Out with knee - MCL

We all should have seen this coming. Mitchell just can’t stay healthy. That being said, I, for one, am avoiding Shanahan’s backfield as usual. But, if you aren’t like me, I’d suggest ignoring Jeff Wilson Jr because people will blow up their FAAB for him. Make the sneaky play and try to get Jordan Mason for basically free.

Dak Prescott - Out with thumb

Dallas is in big trouble. And if you are a Prescott manager, he’s likely your top option. I’d find it doubtful that Cooper Rush will be successful, but if you are just on a priority system, I’d take a chance. If you are on a FAAB system, I’d spend my FAAB elsewhere on other options I’ll go over later.

 

Running Backs

 

Rex Burkhead - Houston Texans

It’s not the prettiest of moves, but Rex Burkhead earns my top spot for non-injury related running back adds this week. Unlike many, I didn’t think Dameon Pierce was going to come screaming out of the gate, but I was also surprised by how valued Burkhead was to Lovey Smith in Week 1. And if you are in a PPR league, the move is fantastic as it looks like Davis Mills is ready to throw even more in his second year.

Tyler Allgeier - Atlanta Falcons

Weird advice, eh? Listen, I know he didn’t even play in Week 1, but with Damien Williams now at least temporarily out of the picture, there’s an opportunity for Allgeier. Atlanta simply can’t lean on Cordarelle Patterson for almost 30 touches each game. You’ll have to wait for these dividends, but by the time he’s useful, I fear he’ll be gone.

Khalil Herbert - Chicago Bears

Admittedly, I don’t love the move here; but it’s a necessary evil. I don’t think Herbert is taking work away from David Montgomery, despite his poor performance this week. But I do think that they will rush the ball more until Justin Fields stops running for his life. The lack of receiving weapons also makes using Herbert more necessary.

Other Running Back Options

Eno Benjamin - Arizona Cardinals
Kenyan Drake - Baltimore Ravens
Zack Moss - Buffalo Bills

Wide Receivers

 

Zay Jones - Jacksonville Jaguars

Let’s start with an underwhelming name. I remember being ecstatic about Zay Jones when he was drafted years ago with the Buffalo Bills and that’s about the last time I could say that. But, I gotta say, Zay Jones performed very well in Week 1. As the clear number 2 option, and with the financial investment from the Jaguars organization, he’s a great addition to your bench.

DJ Chark - Detroit Lions

I am so thrilled to be right about DJ Chark. While it’s true that rookie phenom Jameson Williams hasn’t played yet due to injuries, the trio of Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift and TJ Hockenson were in full force. Despite the crowded room, Chark still took advantage. He is the field stretcher in Detroit and I have a feeling Goff will air it out like never before to show that he’s still the quarterback of that franchise.

Kyle Phillips - Tennessee Titans

Many fantasy football managers won’t know the name, Kyle Phillips, but people certainly know it now. While the Titans start fresh away from AJ Brown and as Derrick Henry gets older, it only makes sense that there will be new weapons. I do, however, feel that when he’s up to speed Treylon Burks is still the guy to own. But, in the meantime, snatch up Phillips now before everyone notices him.

Robbie Anderson - Carolina Panthers

It pains me to know I’m back on board with Robbie Anderson again. Had he not had a stellar Week 1, I obviously wouldn’t be. But with how anti-Baker Mayfield he was, it was shocking to see the success so quickly. Nab him up while he’s cheap. He’s worth the gamble at his current price point.

Chase Claypool - Pittsburgh Steelers

I’m still a bigger believer in Chase Claypool than most, but others should follow suit this time. Especially while Najee is in flux, Claypool’s gadget ability makes him more valuable than most give him credit for. After all, he had over a quarter of the team’s rushing attempts, even with Najee playing.

Other Wide Receiver Options

Devin Duvernay - Baltimore Ravens
Jarvis Landry - New Orleans Saints
Sterling Shepard - New York Giants
Donovan Peoples-Jones - Cleveland Browns
Greg Dortch - Arizona Cardinals
Curtis Samuel - Washington Commanders

 

Tight Ends

 

Gerald Everett - LA Chargers

This is kind of cheating here. Aside from Gerald Everett having stand alone value as the Chargers’ top tight end, it doesn’t hurt his case when he’ll be getting extra potential targets if Keenan Allen misses time. Everett is my biggest add this week at any position on the waiver wire.

Hayden Hurst - Cincinnati Bengals

Much like Everett, Hayden Hurst is good in his own rite, but if Tee Higgins misses time, it’ll only get better for Hurst owners. Let’s not forget that the Ravens drafted Hurst ahead of Mark Andrews, so his talents should not be surprising. Above all else, if CJ Uzomah was fantasy relevant with Joe Burrow, Hayden Hurst should be too.

Other Tight End Options

OJ Howard - Houston Texans
Will Dissly - Seattle Seahawks

Quarterbacks

 

Carson Wentz - Washington Commanders

It’s quite possible that Carson Wentz is not available in your league, but he is in an overwhelming number of leagues. While many people are thinking about how bad he was last year, take advantage and scoop him up as he’s revitalized by his new team. He’s got a real shot at being a QB1 this season with his current weapons.

Marcus Mariota - Atlanta Falcons

I need to apologize to a lot of people. I was certain Marcus Mariota was washed up but he actually looks good. He made pretty good decisions, and seemed to have good vision. He’s not good enough to win you a week yet, but with his rushing upside alone, he’s well worth an add if you need a quarterback; that’s for sure.

Other Quarterback Options

Mitch Trubisky - Pittsburgh Steelers
Jared Goff - Detroit Lions

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

What Have We Learned? Week 1

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What Have We Learned? Week 1

By Tim Lazenby

 

As we close the books on a thrilling Week 1, there is a lot to decompress here. Filled with shocking moments, disappointments, thrillers and straight up football euphoria, Week 1 certainly did not disappoint. Moving forward, as fantasy football managers, there is a lot to unpack in order to keep your team as tip top as it can be. Here are some thoughts about the NFL’s Week 1 in 2022.

 

The Bills are Legit

There were many unphased as Josh Allen and company straight up steam rolled the defending Super Bowl Champs in the Rams, but even I was left jaw agape. The Thursday night game was an old fashioned mollywhoppin’ for the Rams and I, for one, was surprised. Truth be told, I thought the Bills would take it, but not like that. But, despite all the success for the Bills and devastation for the Rams, here are my thoughts in fantasy.

Moving forward, I’d be selling Gabriel Davis and buying Allen Robinson. Davis is amazing, don’t get me wrong, but he only had one more target than Jamison Crowder and 1 less target than backup, Zack Moss. Only sell him if there is a truther in the wings who is willing to overpay. And don’t be misled by Robinson’s poor performance. People will panic that A-Rob is repeating last season, but Matthew Stafford did not play well overall. Take advantage of the panicked Robinson owner before they come to their senses.

 

The AFC West is Stacked

This should have surprised no one. Every AFC West team was popping in Week 1. The Las Vegas Raiders had the misfortune of losing to their division rival in the LA Chargers, but they still looked really good. Speaking of the Chargers, we all know how good the offense was last season, but that defense made Derek Carr look foolish so many times. Patrick Mahomes is also reminding people that he has a stake in the best in the business title, so virtually every Chiefs player is skyrocketing. And even though the Denver Broncos lost the revenge game for Russell Wilson, I’d expect more wins moving forward.

I would sell Clyde Edwards-Helaire after his two touchdown performance. His ten total touches don’t inspire trust as a manager. Hold tight on Hunter Renfrow. His usage wasn’t inspiring, but you had to expect a love-fest from Carr to Adams right away. I’d also be planning on putting in a bid for Gerald Everett if he’s still out there and DeAndre Carter. While I don’t think Carter’s value is sustainable, with Keenan Allen out, I’d take a chance on any weapon being used by Justin Herbert.

 

The Underdogs Were At It in Week 1

So many teams were winning at one point that shouldn’t have. And many of them surprised at the end by stopping the other team from getting that W. The Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants all showed that they belong in the same league as the other teams that many thought would stomp them.

I’m making an attempt at DJ Chark if I can and even Jared Goff is good enough for a bench spot. I’m also not giving up on Kyle Pitts, Trey Lance or Cole Kmet. I’m sure it’ll be a quick rebound to dominance in Week 2. That being said, I am very worried about Justin Fields. While you can blame it on the rain, like Milli Vanilli and even his terrible offensive line, I do worry about him running for his life all season long.

 

The AFC North is No Joke

Win, lose or draw, the AFC North, in my opinion, is the second most thrilling division in football. You never really know what’s going to happen. And while most have the Bengals or Ravens pegged as the favourites to take the division, the Pittsburgh Steelers defense was nothing short of dominant against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens also smacked around the NY Jets, but that’s a bigger task than it used to be with the draft the Jets just had. And let’s not forget the Cleveland Browns shutting Baker Mayfield’s mouth when Cade York took the lead back after the Panthers were certain they had it in the bag.

I’ve been preaching it since last season, but if you didn’t know, the Steelers player to own is Diontae Johnson. The fantasy points weren’t stellar but he owned 134% more targets than the rest of the Steelers’ wide receivers combined. I’d also be looking at picking up injury replacements for Najee Harris, Tee Higgins and JK Dobbins if they’re out there. And if there is anyone freaking out about Joe Burrow’s horrid performance, go and take advantage by acquiring the talented quarterback.

 

The Washington Commanders Are Way Better Than I Thought

(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

I know they barely beat the Jacksonville Jaguars, but like the NY Jets, the Jags aren’t terrible any more. With all the new additions, when you play the Jags, it’s not a gimme moving forward. I had full faith, despite all the smack talk, in Antonio Gibson, but Carson Wentz, Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson all looked way better than I thought they would. I had the Commanders pegged as losing their division, but one game into the season, we’ll see if I was insane or not. Regardless, I want Commanders’ players on my roster.

I’m obviously making moves for Antonio Gibson moving forward, but I’d also recommend going for Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas; both of whom I was sure were not worth the gamble. Hopefully in your league they are cheap, if not free. And, even though it was only one game, I’d recommend making a move for Carson Wentz. Most people probably took him as their second quarterback, so he’ll probably come at a reasonable price. I’m not suggesting he’s a top option, but definitely one I want as my backup, with a chance at fantasy gold here and there.

 

Should We Be Worried About Green Bay?

The potential of a loss to Minnesota wasn’t out of the question, but the way in which they lost speaks volumes. The Green Bay Packers didn’t just lose after all; they were demolished. In nearly every aspect of the game, the Vikings made the Packers look foolish. This hurts all the more when you consider the division rival-ness of it all. Let’s take a moment to breathe before we panic. The Vikings are a much better team than many think. After all, Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook and a good defense is scary. And also remember the Packers do not have their full roster yet.

If I can buy virtually any piece of the Packers roster, I’m going to. Aaron Rodgers’ performance in Week 1 this year was virtually identical in Week 1 last year. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are still only one game into their careers and Allen Lazard will be impactful upon return. Some people may be panicking on Aaron Jones as well, with AJ Dillon seeing twice the rushes and more targets, but do them a favour and take Jones off their hands. Aaron Jones isn’t the same as he once was, but he’s still an RB1 so he’s a steal if you can get him.

 

Week 2 Predictions

As I leave you, I figured I’d share that before the season began, I tried to predict every game as the schedule was released; before I even knew about injuries or anything like that. Week 1, I was 10-6. Here are my predictions for Week 2:

LA Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs - LA Chargers win
Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants - Carolina Panthers win
New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Pittsburgh Steelers win
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints - Tampa Bay Buccaneers win
NY Jets @ Cleveland Browns - NY Jets win
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens - Miami Dolphins win
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions - Detroit Lions win
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Indianapolis Colts win
Atlanta Falcons @ LA Rams - LA Rams win
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers - San Francisco 49ers win
Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos - Denver Broncos win
Arizona Cardinals @ LV Raiders - Arizona Cardinals win
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys - Cincinnati Bengals win
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers - Green Bay Packers win
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills - Buffalo Bills win
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles - Philadelphia Eagles win

Waiver Wire Adds: Week 1

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Waiver Wire Adds: Week 1

By Tim Lazenby

 

The 2022-23 Season is officially upon us tomorrow and although waiver wire adds aren't really necessary at this point, it can't hurt to have some names in mind.  Keep in mind, most of these players should be available except for deeper leagues.  Some of these players can pay immediate dividends, while others are only an injury away from greatness.  If you're looking to stay ahead of the game, keep these names in your back pocket.

 

Wide Receivers

 

Devin Duvernay - Baltimore Ravens @ NY Jets

(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

For many, the Ravens receiving room is still wide open.  We all know that Rashod Bateman is the receiver to have in Baltimore, but you're kidding yourself if you think Lamar Jackson will only be throwing to Bateman and Mark Andrews.  There's also the possibility that they spread the ball more as Bateman is untested.  The team, and the league for that matter, loves Duvenay for what he does on special teams and I think he's ready to turn heads on the offense.

 

Jarvis Landry - New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta

The last couple seasons haven't been spectacular for Landry, but it's hard to place the entire blame on him.  Moving into a situation with a rejuvenated and healthy quarterback, paired with a fantastic opportunity, many are sleeping on Juice.  It may take Michael Thomas time to take the reigns, if he even can.  And Chris Olave, although talented, may take time to gain trust.  This leaves Landry with an excellent landing spot and super cheap for you.  It doesn't hurt that his next game is at Detroit either.

 

Jalen Guyton - Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas

Oh so many weapons for Justin Herbert!  The name that is often lost is Guyton.  Last season, he served very admirably as the number three, but with the emergence of dynasty darling, Josh Palmer, many are leaving Guyton at the draft table.  Make no mistake, there is plenty to go around at the table for the Chargers and you can have a great piece in Guyton for free in many cases.

 

Jamison Crowder - Buffalo Bills @ LA Rams

The Buffalo Bills are in need of a slot receiver with Emmanuel Sanders no longer employed by the team.  And while the fantasy accolades at wide receiver usually go to Stefon Diggs, Sanders did quite well in his own rite for Josh Allen.  The dynasty community may have already crowned a different winner, but Crowder already has the experience and has shown he can succeed in the slot with less than great quarterback play.

 

Running Backs

 

Ameer Abdullah - Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Chargers

Abdullah, like many running backs for the list will have a difficult time succeeding immediately, but with the release of Josh Jacobs' old handcuff that we'll talk about shortly, the door is wide open for Abdullah.  Sure, there is rookie competition, but with the team making massive improvements and Abdullah costing next to nothing, it makes a lot of sense to snatch him up while you can.

 

Kenyan Drake - Baltimore Ravens @ NY Jets

Drake is an anomaly.  He never gets to stay in one place very long, but when given the opportunity, he can make the most of it.  We all want JK Dobbins to succeed, but in the off chance he doesn't, there aren't too many backups that can make the most of it like Drake can.  And Baltimore is a running back's dream come true.  Just ask Devonta Freeman managers how they enjoyed his time there.

 

D'Ernest Johnson - Cleveland Browns @ Carolina

In his limited starting capacity last season, Johnson was stellar.  And with Kareem Hunt asking for a trade officially, this opens the door to the possibility of handcuff anxiety in Cleveland.  We all also know that as much as we want Nick Chubb to get the entire backfield to himself, he actually thrives on sharing and getting the golden touches.  When Hunt moves Johnson will be unobtainable, so get him while you can.

 

Sony Michel - Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas

So far Michel has been somewhat of a fantasy flop thus far.  And since leaving the Patriots, it's been a whirlwind of movement but now he lands with the Chargers.  Most leagues have already prepared themselves with Joshua Kelley as Austin Ekeler's handcuff, but he hasn't made the best of his opportunities thus far in his career.  And while Michel hasn't been stellar either, I wouldn't mind a piece of this offense that is free in some leagues.

 

Quarterbacks

 

Jameis Winston - New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta

If you are playing superflex, virtually no starting quarterbacks will be available, but in one quarterback or smaller leagues, you may be lucky enough to have Winston available.  Last year he was a new man and now he has the best weapons he has arguably ever had.  With a weak week one, even if you don't intend to keep him, he could turn you a nice profit if he's able to dominate the game like he should.

 

Carson Wentz - Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville

Just like with Winston, in many leagues you won't be able to get Wentz, but I was surprised to see how low the ownership was on him.  Many consider this Wentz's last chance, but don't fool yourself into thinking he was terrible last season.  While there was bad games, he also had some great ones too.  He now has more to throw to in a less run heavy offense and Jacksonville should ease him into his new role.  Week 2 he plays Detroit too, so that doesn't hurt his chances of getting off on the right foot.

 

Tight Ends

 

David Njoku - Cleveland Browns @ Carolina

The situation for a receiver in Cleveland certainly isn't peachy for the first 11 weeks.  But Jacoby Brissett isn't as bas as people make him out to be.  With a massive new contract and a new receiver room, I'm certain that the Browns will lean heavily on Njoku like they haven't done before.  If you missed out on one of the top tight ends earlier, Njoku is a cheap option that will massively outperform his expectations from the community.  Also, week two gives him the chance to play the NY Jets, so that should help.

 

Evan Engram - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington

Engram has been truly maddening to fantasy managers in the past.  He took us on highs and lows, but since his rookie season, he's been less than consistent to understate the obvious.  The new change of scenery with a generational quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and lack of star power should be just what the doctor ordered to kickstart his career back into TE1 relevance.

Dynasty Dilemmas: Allen Lazard

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Dynasty Dilemmas: Allen Lazard

By Tim Lazenby

 

The days of the Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams connection is a thing of the past and it leaves Packers and fantasy football fans scrambling to find the answer moving forward.  And while losing who some consider the best wide receiver in the league is a massive blow, the four time MVP is still there running the show.  So someone or a combination of players are sure to continue to feast in 2022 and beyond.  Predicting the WR1 in Green Bay is no easy task, but it’s our job as competent fantasy football managers to do just that.  In the beginning of the off season, it was Allen Lazard SZN, but now pundits are less than sure.  So, what do you do with Allen Lazard moving forward in dynasty?

 

The situation is eerie in many ways in Green Bay.  Losing Davante Adams was one of the single biggest losses to any team this offseason.  And while it’d be straight up assinine to suggest any one player could fill his shoes, the show must go on.  But even the most iron willed and uber Cheese Headed faithful have to admit there are massive question marks surrounding Allen Lazard.  It can be completely rational just to wash your hands of him as a fantasy manager, especially in dynasty.

 

His Value as the “WR1” When Being Sold

Even if you’re into Allen Lazard as the true top dog for A-Rod, you have to admit the value in offloading the WR1 in Green Bay.  For years, Aaron Rodgers has made the top receiving option for his team nearly matchup proof.  Week in and week out, you can depend on top numbers to lead your team to a victory.  Yes, I am fully aware that no one replaces Davante, but this is  Aaron freakin’ Rodgers we’re talkin’ ‘bout here!  The man makes magic happen; plain and simple.  The defense is still elite too, so you know that offense will continue to be on the field serving up points on a silver platter.  Someone is sure to pay up for it in one of your leagues.

Listen, I know not everyone is a believer in Allen Lazard as the answer moving forward, and if you feel that way, you’re not alone.  But make no mistake; there are others who feel differently.  It doesn’t matter who Aaron Rodgers has.  He will dominate and his WR1 will too.  Strike while the coals are hot and get value for Lazard while you can.  As the second option, Lazard did very well in 2021.  So you can only imagine how he’d be as the first option.  Just use your “used car salesman” vibes here.

New Dogs in the Fight and Devastating Backfield

Everyone loves shiny new toys.  And for the first time in his career that I can remember, it seems as though Aaron Rodgers does too.  I can’t recall a time where he was anything close to buddy-buddy with rookie receivers, but he seems to like Romeo Doubs.  Let’s also not forget the value of 34th overall pick, Christian Watson.  Watson is on the mend currently, but he won’t be forever.  In redraft the additions of these two is not as devastating to Lazard, but it dynasty this is quite troubling to the value of his stock.  New dogs are nipping at the heels and Lazard’s spot at the top is in jeopardy.

Let’s not forget that the Packers also have one of the best running back tandems in the entire league.  With no Davante Adams, the changing of the guard isn’t so simple.  It’s easy to assume that a receiver will just take the targets, but perhaps Rodgers will spread it around to two of the better receiving backs in the league.  Even with Davante, Jones still topped 60 receptions in each of the past three seasons.  And although he only amassed 37 targets in his first full season, AJ Dillon caught all but 3.  He certainly makes it harder for Rodgers to throw elsewhere when he’s on the field.

 

It’s completely normal to have doubts about Allen Lazard, but the flip side of the coin is equally as compelling.  For all the doubters and haters, this provides an excellent opportunity for the believers and the gamblers.  Aaron Rodgers’ top option has never been cheaper, so the appeal on Lazard is definitely there.  Right now in drafts, Allen Lazard is going at 118.8 in dynasty ADP on Sleeper.  As the 51st WR off the board, he’s going well behind injured teammate, Christian Watson, who hasn’t even played a snap.  And even if you are in a league that has already drafted, this should tell you all you need to know about his value in dynasty.  The price is worth the gamble.

 

Underrated in 2021

It’s easy to get lost with names like Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon on offense if you play for the Packers.  But, in case you didn’t know, Allen Lazard performed quite admirably in many categories despite having to share the ball so much on this high powered offense.  And as a WR2, there aren’t many players who performed nearly as well while maintaining the lack of love from the dynasty community as Allen Lazard did in 2021.

Despite Davante Adams on the team, Allen Lazard finished 10th in the entire league in touchdowns inside the ten at wide receiver.  Aaron Rodgers also had a 132.8 passer rating when targeting Allen Lazard.  Lazard also cut his drops down by four from 2020 despite having his targets rise by over 30%.  With Devante Adams leaving, along with a couple others, there are over 240 targets up for grabs and Lazard is sure to get a ton of them coming his way.

 

The History of Aaron Rodgers’ Top Receivers

Since Aaron Rodgers took over the helm for the Packers in 2008, he has been a man possessed.  But it’s important to note that his four top receiver’s success was not instantaneous.  While it’s true he was a beast for years, it took until Jordy Nelson’s fourth season to break out as the alpha.  And although Randall Cobb’s second season was fantastic, he regressed quickly the next season.  In truth, it took until year four for Cobb to be fully trusted by A-Rod.  James Jones’ rookie season went very well, but he wasn’t an actual starter until season six.  And even though Davante Adams was dominant from day one, he wasn’t in the best of the league echelon discussions until arguably year three or more likely year four.

While it remains to be seen if Lazard, or anyone on the current roster will hit the numbers these men did, there will be fantasy success in 2022 and beyond for the Packers at wide receiver.  The good and bad news, depending on your perspective, is that in dynasty it sometimes takes time to reap the benefits of a blossoming talent.  If you’re going to gamble on a player, there are a few viable options, but the one to give the most instant success is statistically most likely to be Allen Lazard.  Aaron Rodgers is also not one to have a receiver flourish only to be replaced quickly.  So, once you’re at the top with A-Rod, you’ve got a good chance of staying there.

 

Let’s face it.  No receiver in that room is truly proven, but of the bunch, Lazard is the best bet.  It’s not the prettiest of choices, but the price you’ll have to pay alone makes this an easy one for me.  Pair to that his rapport that is already established, if you’re going for a piece of that receiving room, it makes the most sense to go for Allen Lazard.  While it’s true that I like the talent of Christian Watson more, he’s also very cheap right now due to the injury, so if I have room, why not get both on my squad?

Are you really going to be the guy who passed on Aaron Rodgers’ cheapest top receiver in dynasty?  Can you look yourself in the face every morning when you know that Billy, the guy you just can’t stand in your league, has Allen Lazard on his team at a cheaper than reasonable price.  Can you let Billy, with his smug little face, have that win in his back pocket while you cry into your cereal in 2022?  Don’t make that mistake.  Make Billy pay.  Get Allen Lazard on the right team: your team.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Dilemma: Antonio Gibson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Antonio Gibson

By Tim Lazenby

 

There’s a lot of smack talk going on right now about Antonio Gibson. At the same time, there’s a lot of praise being sung for rookie, Brian Robinson. While Robinson is quite an intriguing player, it says a lot when people are suggesting to throw away Gibson, who this time last season, was one to hold on to for dynasty success. It’s always hard to know which way to go with certain players in fantasy football, especially in dynasty, and Antonio Gibson certainly isn’t making things easy. I find it very pressing to talk about the dynamic running back from Washington once again and decide what to do with him.

Should I stay or do I go now with Antonio Gibson?

 

Coach Ron Rivera once heralded Gibson as a player like Christian McCaffrey by saying, “He's a little bit bigger than Christian, but he's got a skill-set like Christian”. How things have changed. Needless to say, if we believed half of what’s being said online, Gibson is now less valuable than the waterboy. Cutting through the gibberish of beat reporters and coach speak can be taxing, but at some point we have to see the storm coming. Perhaps it’s time to get something for Gibson while we can.

 

Other Backs in the Room

The storm watch was alerted when J.D. McKissic was brought back in on a two year deal. Not only that, but it was for more money than some realize. If you didn’t know, McKissic is the 19th highest paid running back this year and that’s no small amount of change for a backup. And while it’s essential to have a good backup, the semi pricey deal, combined with his solidified role leaves many managers worrying about the role that Gibson will actually play in this offense moving forward.

It also doesn’t help Gibson’s case that Washington used their third pick to select the sixth running back off the board in this past draft in Brian Robinson. The Commanders certainly had many needs and using such a high pick on what many thought was one of the stronger parts of Washington’s roster can be a cause for concern for Gibson shareholders. It is true that Brian Robinson can’t do all the things Gibson can, but when you pair him with J.D. McKissic, does it leave Gibson expendable?

 

Ball Control Issues

Last season, Antonio Gibson had a lot of difficulty keeping the ball in his hands. And when I say he had trouble, it may be an understatement. Of all non-quarterbacks, Gibson led the entire league in fumbles last season and of all that he fumbled, he only recovered two of them. And while fumbles can be forgiven to some extent at times, there is a limit of leniency in this regard. The Commanders ranked in the bottom half of the league in touchdowns in 2021, and in rushing touchdowns, it was even worse. With a hard enough time hitting paydirt as it is, can the Commanders really trust Gibson to hold on to the football moving forward?

While fumbling is bad enough, there’s a larger picture on display here. Antonio Gibson had a hard time while the ball was in the air too. While it’s true he had two more games played and more targets thrown his way last year than he did as a rookie, it is quite troublesome that his drop rate went up to a staggering 11.5%. He also dropped three times as many passes last season as he did in 2020. If these issues were to arise for a veteran, you could chalk it up to any number of reasons, but in only his second season, the ice is thin indeed for Antonio Gibson.

 

 

I’ve painted a pretty bleak picture for poor Antonio Gibson here, but there are always two sides to the story. After only two seasons in the NFL, there’s still a lot of tread left on those tires. Shouldn’t we kick them again before we just scrap them? And while he’s had his issues, which I’ve already gone over, no one can deny the talent that the man possesses. Many will lead you to believe it’s all over, but here’s some food for thought to make you wonder if the rocky waters are not so rocky after all.

 

Ron Rivera

Ron Rivera is one of the more stoic coaches in the league, but players and fans should know what he’s about. It may seem to many that Gibson’s days are numbered, but Rivera’s coaching history should prove otherwise. As a head coach, he’s only twice yielded less than 50% of his running backs’ total rushing attempts to his lead back. Once was when Jonathan Stewart was coming back from injury and once was in Gibson’s rookie season. And half the time, he gives his lead back 60% or more of the rushing opportunities. Rivera is not one to showcase a room of backs; instead, he focuses on one as the main guy. And while that can be scary if he’s moved on from Gibson, don’t fool yourself into thinking Robinson is ready to shoulder that kind of load.

Underrated Talent

The list of running backs with the ability and talent of Antonio Gibson is not a lengthy one. Last season, despite the drama, Gibson ranked fourth in rush attempts and second in rush attempts on first down. He also ranked 11th among starting running backs in targets, despite McKissic taking many of those opportunities away. He also ranked 5th in receiving touchdowns among running backs last year.

But as impressive as he is among other running backs in the league, he is one of the most valuable players to his own team. He had the second most receiving touchdowns on his team, with only two less than Terry McLaurin. In fact, he accounted for almost one third of his team’s entire touchdown total in 2021. He also accounted for 74% of the Commanders’ running backs' red zone attempts. There aren’t many that can boast that level of importance in the red zone.

 

It’s pretty easy to fall victim to the narrative of “What have you done for me lately”, when it comes to the National Football League. Each year new superstars emerge to take the place of those who you thought had their position cemented for years to come. The situation in Washington is tense, make no mistake, but that doesn’t mean every doom and gloom report comes to fruition.

Bottom line, we don’t know for sure how this running back situation will pan out in Washington, but he is still the starter. I want to share some recent real life straight up trades that I’ve seen for Antonio Gibson just today that would have been instantly rejected this time last season:

Antonio Gibson for Kadarius Toney
Antonio Gibson for Kareem Hunt
Antonio Gibson for Chase Edmonds

And while there are hundreds more and even more complicated ones, this tells me one thing: Now’s the time to move on Antonio Gibson. The value for him right now is fantastic. In case you didn’t know, Gibson has only been playing the position since partway through his last year in college. We had to expect some growing pains, so I am completely fine with some struggles here and then in his first two years on a bad team.

But the best reason to buy Antonio Gibson right now is the best reason to buy anything. FOMO. “Fear of missing out” strikes the heart of even the most iron willed manager, and it’s the job of a savvy one to take advantage. Look for those who are nervous about the unknown for Antonio Gibson and make sure he’s on your squad. And in the off chance he fails, which I don’t believe he will, the price you pay now is a forgivable loss. In one of the easiest verdicts yet:

Dynasty Deep Stash – Kristian Wilkerson

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Dynasty Deep Stash - Kristian Wilkerson

By Tim Lazenby

After far too long without football, we can all sing praises to our favorite football players and teams as we can finally see them in action.  After months of speculation, analysis and flat out dreaming, the preseason is here!  While we can’t take too much stock in the preseason as most of the starters are resting, it’s still football.  And for that we can all be thankful.  As the preseason continues on, it’s a great time for fans, but it’s an even greater time for dynasty fantasy football managers.  Many of the young unknowns are taking the field, trying to prove their worth and we need to take advantage.

Today, let’s turn our attention to New England Patriots wide receiver, Kristian Wilkerson.  Wilkerson made some waves late last season in the last game of the year where he torched the Jacksonville Jaguars for two touchdowns.  It’s important to settle our excitement as the lowly Jags were well out of it by this point and it was only one game, but it certainly was worth noting.

Getting back to the present, in New England’s only action so far this preseason, Wilkerson certainly wasn’t forgotten.  While he missed out on a touchdown, he was targeted a team high 12 times; catching 8 balls for 99 yards.  This included a fantastic 33 yard catch, which was quite beautiful.  Open early and often, Wilkerson continued to send a message to Belichek that he should be on this roster and featured.  I, for one, believe in Kristian Wilkerson moving forward and here’s why.

The Story So Far

Wilkerson wasn’t a stud straight out of the gate in college but by his third year, he was showing the NCAA what he could do.  Even more impressively, his senior year he opened more eyes with his skill and poise.  In his senior year, he caught 71 passes for 1,350 yards, while adding 10 touchdowns.  It’s important to note that that next closest receiver had virtually half the yards and less than half the touchdowns.  All in all, during his tenure at Southeast Missouri State, he compiled 219 receptions for 3,540 yards and 33 touchdowns.  It helps to know that these are all school records.

Given the opportunity, Wilkerson, receiving from a quarterback who wasn’t a big name by the way, dominated opposing defenders.  But despite all his pizzazz, he was left undrafted.  Although Tennessee took a chance on the UDFA, it was short lived.  Without the draft investment, it was easy for the Titans to not feature him and ultimately cut him loose.  He’s been with the Patriots since 2020, just waiting for his chance.  Is it only a matter of time until the front office sees what they have?

What Competition?

If we’re being honest, the New England Patriots aren’t boasting the most dominant receiving room in the league this year.  Not only that, but the depth is not much to write home about.  While New England does have Jakobi Meyers, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne as starters, those names are not ones that are setting the NFL on fire.  Sure, there is money invested, but the chance to make a name for yourself in New England is one of the better places in the league for wide receivers.

The Patriots also invested fairly heavily in Tyquan Thornton in the draft this year, using a second round pick, but after that, the depth is full of question marks.  So, why not take a chance on Kristian WIlkerson?  He’s shown in limited capacity that he can score and dominate in the NFL, so hedging a bet on him squeezing his way into the starting lineup isn’t that far off.  The depth isn’t there and the starters aren’t immovable, so this all equals a golden opportunity for Wilkerson if he can just get his chance.

Final Thoughts

In dynasty, we need to take advantage of finding deep sleepers while others are simply sleeping on them.  The National Football League is truly a league of, “What have you done for me lately?”, meaning that the rosters are forever fluid.  It’s not a stretch to imagine DeVante Parker being on a short leash, despite the monetary investment.  Same goes for Nelson Agholor, who was admirable but not amazing last year.  And while I doubt Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne don’t run the show at receiver this season for the Patriots, there is plenty of room for more as Mac Jones isn’t a runner and will throw often.

The best news is that Kristian Wilkerson is pretty much free in most leagues.  In the multiple leagues I play in, he was sitting in free agency.  And if someone in your league has him, there’s a good chance he can be treated as a “throw in” player in a deal that you can easily make.  In redraft, I’m not preaching the Wilkerson gospel yet, but in dynasty the time is now.  Make sure Kristian Wilkerson is on your roster moving forward.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby