Tim Lazenby

Dynasty Dilemmas: Allen Lazard

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Dynasty Dilemmas: Allen Lazard

By Tim Lazenby

 

The days of the Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams connection is a thing of the past and it leaves Packers and fantasy football fans scrambling to find the answer moving forward.  And while losing who some consider the best wide receiver in the league is a massive blow, the four time MVP is still there running the show.  So someone or a combination of players are sure to continue to feast in 2022 and beyond.  Predicting the WR1 in Green Bay is no easy task, but it’s our job as competent fantasy football managers to do just that.  In the beginning of the off season, it was Allen Lazard SZN, but now pundits are less than sure.  So, what do you do with Allen Lazard moving forward in dynasty?

 

The situation is eerie in many ways in Green Bay.  Losing Davante Adams was one of the single biggest losses to any team this offseason.  And while it’d be straight up assinine to suggest any one player could fill his shoes, the show must go on.  But even the most iron willed and uber Cheese Headed faithful have to admit there are massive question marks surrounding Allen Lazard.  It can be completely rational just to wash your hands of him as a fantasy manager, especially in dynasty.

 

His Value as the “WR1” When Being Sold

Even if you’re into Allen Lazard as the true top dog for A-Rod, you have to admit the value in offloading the WR1 in Green Bay.  For years, Aaron Rodgers has made the top receiving option for his team nearly matchup proof.  Week in and week out, you can depend on top numbers to lead your team to a victory.  Yes, I am fully aware that no one replaces Davante, but this is  Aaron freakin’ Rodgers we’re talkin’ ‘bout here!  The man makes magic happen; plain and simple.  The defense is still elite too, so you know that offense will continue to be on the field serving up points on a silver platter.  Someone is sure to pay up for it in one of your leagues.

Listen, I know not everyone is a believer in Allen Lazard as the answer moving forward, and if you feel that way, you’re not alone.  But make no mistake; there are others who feel differently.  It doesn’t matter who Aaron Rodgers has.  He will dominate and his WR1 will too.  Strike while the coals are hot and get value for Lazard while you can.  As the second option, Lazard did very well in 2021.  So you can only imagine how he’d be as the first option.  Just use your “used car salesman” vibes here.

New Dogs in the Fight and Devastating Backfield

Everyone loves shiny new toys.  And for the first time in his career that I can remember, it seems as though Aaron Rodgers does too.  I can’t recall a time where he was anything close to buddy-buddy with rookie receivers, but he seems to like Romeo Doubs.  Let’s also not forget the value of 34th overall pick, Christian Watson.  Watson is on the mend currently, but he won’t be forever.  In redraft the additions of these two is not as devastating to Lazard, but it dynasty this is quite troubling to the value of his stock.  New dogs are nipping at the heels and Lazard’s spot at the top is in jeopardy.

Let’s not forget that the Packers also have one of the best running back tandems in the entire league.  With no Davante Adams, the changing of the guard isn’t so simple.  It’s easy to assume that a receiver will just take the targets, but perhaps Rodgers will spread it around to two of the better receiving backs in the league.  Even with Davante, Jones still topped 60 receptions in each of the past three seasons.  And although he only amassed 37 targets in his first full season, AJ Dillon caught all but 3.  He certainly makes it harder for Rodgers to throw elsewhere when he’s on the field.

 

It’s completely normal to have doubts about Allen Lazard, but the flip side of the coin is equally as compelling.  For all the doubters and haters, this provides an excellent opportunity for the believers and the gamblers.  Aaron Rodgers’ top option has never been cheaper, so the appeal on Lazard is definitely there.  Right now in drafts, Allen Lazard is going at 118.8 in dynasty ADP on Sleeper.  As the 51st WR off the board, he’s going well behind injured teammate, Christian Watson, who hasn’t even played a snap.  And even if you are in a league that has already drafted, this should tell you all you need to know about his value in dynasty.  The price is worth the gamble.

 

Underrated in 2021

It’s easy to get lost with names like Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon on offense if you play for the Packers.  But, in case you didn’t know, Allen Lazard performed quite admirably in many categories despite having to share the ball so much on this high powered offense.  And as a WR2, there aren’t many players who performed nearly as well while maintaining the lack of love from the dynasty community as Allen Lazard did in 2021.

Despite Davante Adams on the team, Allen Lazard finished 10th in the entire league in touchdowns inside the ten at wide receiver.  Aaron Rodgers also had a 132.8 passer rating when targeting Allen Lazard.  Lazard also cut his drops down by four from 2020 despite having his targets rise by over 30%.  With Devante Adams leaving, along with a couple others, there are over 240 targets up for grabs and Lazard is sure to get a ton of them coming his way.

 

The History of Aaron Rodgers’ Top Receivers

Since Aaron Rodgers took over the helm for the Packers in 2008, he has been a man possessed.  But it’s important to note that his four top receiver’s success was not instantaneous.  While it’s true he was a beast for years, it took until Jordy Nelson’s fourth season to break out as the alpha.  And although Randall Cobb’s second season was fantastic, he regressed quickly the next season.  In truth, it took until year four for Cobb to be fully trusted by A-Rod.  James Jones’ rookie season went very well, but he wasn’t an actual starter until season six.  And even though Davante Adams was dominant from day one, he wasn’t in the best of the league echelon discussions until arguably year three or more likely year four.

While it remains to be seen if Lazard, or anyone on the current roster will hit the numbers these men did, there will be fantasy success in 2022 and beyond for the Packers at wide receiver.  The good and bad news, depending on your perspective, is that in dynasty it sometimes takes time to reap the benefits of a blossoming talent.  If you’re going to gamble on a player, there are a few viable options, but the one to give the most instant success is statistically most likely to be Allen Lazard.  Aaron Rodgers is also not one to have a receiver flourish only to be replaced quickly.  So, once you’re at the top with A-Rod, you’ve got a good chance of staying there.

 

Let’s face it.  No receiver in that room is truly proven, but of the bunch, Lazard is the best bet.  It’s not the prettiest of choices, but the price you’ll have to pay alone makes this an easy one for me.  Pair to that his rapport that is already established, if you’re going for a piece of that receiving room, it makes the most sense to go for Allen Lazard.  While it’s true that I like the talent of Christian Watson more, he’s also very cheap right now due to the injury, so if I have room, why not get both on my squad?

Are you really going to be the guy who passed on Aaron Rodgers’ cheapest top receiver in dynasty?  Can you look yourself in the face every morning when you know that Billy, the guy you just can’t stand in your league, has Allen Lazard on his team at a cheaper than reasonable price.  Can you let Billy, with his smug little face, have that win in his back pocket while you cry into your cereal in 2022?  Don’t make that mistake.  Make Billy pay.  Get Allen Lazard on the right team: your team.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Dilemma: Antonio Gibson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Antonio Gibson

By Tim Lazenby

 

There’s a lot of smack talk going on right now about Antonio Gibson. At the same time, there’s a lot of praise being sung for rookie, Brian Robinson. While Robinson is quite an intriguing player, it says a lot when people are suggesting to throw away Gibson, who this time last season, was one to hold on to for dynasty success. It’s always hard to know which way to go with certain players in fantasy football, especially in dynasty, and Antonio Gibson certainly isn’t making things easy. I find it very pressing to talk about the dynamic running back from Washington once again and decide what to do with him.

Should I stay or do I go now with Antonio Gibson?

 

Coach Ron Rivera once heralded Gibson as a player like Christian McCaffrey by saying, “He's a little bit bigger than Christian, but he's got a skill-set like Christian”. How things have changed. Needless to say, if we believed half of what’s being said online, Gibson is now less valuable than the waterboy. Cutting through the gibberish of beat reporters and coach speak can be taxing, but at some point we have to see the storm coming. Perhaps it’s time to get something for Gibson while we can.

 

Other Backs in the Room

The storm watch was alerted when J.D. McKissic was brought back in on a two year deal. Not only that, but it was for more money than some realize. If you didn’t know, McKissic is the 19th highest paid running back this year and that’s no small amount of change for a backup. And while it’s essential to have a good backup, the semi pricey deal, combined with his solidified role leaves many managers worrying about the role that Gibson will actually play in this offense moving forward.

It also doesn’t help Gibson’s case that Washington used their third pick to select the sixth running back off the board in this past draft in Brian Robinson. The Commanders certainly had many needs and using such a high pick on what many thought was one of the stronger parts of Washington’s roster can be a cause for concern for Gibson shareholders. It is true that Brian Robinson can’t do all the things Gibson can, but when you pair him with J.D. McKissic, does it leave Gibson expendable?

 

Ball Control Issues

Last season, Antonio Gibson had a lot of difficulty keeping the ball in his hands. And when I say he had trouble, it may be an understatement. Of all non-quarterbacks, Gibson led the entire league in fumbles last season and of all that he fumbled, he only recovered two of them. And while fumbles can be forgiven to some extent at times, there is a limit of leniency in this regard. The Commanders ranked in the bottom half of the league in touchdowns in 2021, and in rushing touchdowns, it was even worse. With a hard enough time hitting paydirt as it is, can the Commanders really trust Gibson to hold on to the football moving forward?

While fumbling is bad enough, there’s a larger picture on display here. Antonio Gibson had a hard time while the ball was in the air too. While it’s true he had two more games played and more targets thrown his way last year than he did as a rookie, it is quite troublesome that his drop rate went up to a staggering 11.5%. He also dropped three times as many passes last season as he did in 2020. If these issues were to arise for a veteran, you could chalk it up to any number of reasons, but in only his second season, the ice is thin indeed for Antonio Gibson.

 

 

I’ve painted a pretty bleak picture for poor Antonio Gibson here, but there are always two sides to the story. After only two seasons in the NFL, there’s still a lot of tread left on those tires. Shouldn’t we kick them again before we just scrap them? And while he’s had his issues, which I’ve already gone over, no one can deny the talent that the man possesses. Many will lead you to believe it’s all over, but here’s some food for thought to make you wonder if the rocky waters are not so rocky after all.

 

Ron Rivera

Ron Rivera is one of the more stoic coaches in the league, but players and fans should know what he’s about. It may seem to many that Gibson’s days are numbered, but Rivera’s coaching history should prove otherwise. As a head coach, he’s only twice yielded less than 50% of his running backs’ total rushing attempts to his lead back. Once was when Jonathan Stewart was coming back from injury and once was in Gibson’s rookie season. And half the time, he gives his lead back 60% or more of the rushing opportunities. Rivera is not one to showcase a room of backs; instead, he focuses on one as the main guy. And while that can be scary if he’s moved on from Gibson, don’t fool yourself into thinking Robinson is ready to shoulder that kind of load.

Underrated Talent

The list of running backs with the ability and talent of Antonio Gibson is not a lengthy one. Last season, despite the drama, Gibson ranked fourth in rush attempts and second in rush attempts on first down. He also ranked 11th among starting running backs in targets, despite McKissic taking many of those opportunities away. He also ranked 5th in receiving touchdowns among running backs last year.

But as impressive as he is among other running backs in the league, he is one of the most valuable players to his own team. He had the second most receiving touchdowns on his team, with only two less than Terry McLaurin. In fact, he accounted for almost one third of his team’s entire touchdown total in 2021. He also accounted for 74% of the Commanders’ running backs' red zone attempts. There aren’t many that can boast that level of importance in the red zone.

 

It’s pretty easy to fall victim to the narrative of “What have you done for me lately”, when it comes to the National Football League. Each year new superstars emerge to take the place of those who you thought had their position cemented for years to come. The situation in Washington is tense, make no mistake, but that doesn’t mean every doom and gloom report comes to fruition.

Bottom line, we don’t know for sure how this running back situation will pan out in Washington, but he is still the starter. I want to share some recent real life straight up trades that I’ve seen for Antonio Gibson just today that would have been instantly rejected this time last season:

Antonio Gibson for Kadarius Toney
Antonio Gibson for Kareem Hunt
Antonio Gibson for Chase Edmonds

And while there are hundreds more and even more complicated ones, this tells me one thing: Now’s the time to move on Antonio Gibson. The value for him right now is fantastic. In case you didn’t know, Gibson has only been playing the position since partway through his last year in college. We had to expect some growing pains, so I am completely fine with some struggles here and then in his first two years on a bad team.

But the best reason to buy Antonio Gibson right now is the best reason to buy anything. FOMO. “Fear of missing out” strikes the heart of even the most iron willed manager, and it’s the job of a savvy one to take advantage. Look for those who are nervous about the unknown for Antonio Gibson and make sure he’s on your squad. And in the off chance he fails, which I don’t believe he will, the price you pay now is a forgivable loss. In one of the easiest verdicts yet:

Dynasty Deep Stash – Kristian Wilkerson

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Dynasty Deep Stash - Kristian Wilkerson

By Tim Lazenby

After far too long without football, we can all sing praises to our favorite football players and teams as we can finally see them in action.  After months of speculation, analysis and flat out dreaming, the preseason is here!  While we can’t take too much stock in the preseason as most of the starters are resting, it’s still football.  And for that we can all be thankful.  As the preseason continues on, it’s a great time for fans, but it’s an even greater time for dynasty fantasy football managers.  Many of the young unknowns are taking the field, trying to prove their worth and we need to take advantage.

Today, let’s turn our attention to New England Patriots wide receiver, Kristian Wilkerson.  Wilkerson made some waves late last season in the last game of the year where he torched the Jacksonville Jaguars for two touchdowns.  It’s important to settle our excitement as the lowly Jags were well out of it by this point and it was only one game, but it certainly was worth noting.

Getting back to the present, in New England’s only action so far this preseason, Wilkerson certainly wasn’t forgotten.  While he missed out on a touchdown, he was targeted a team high 12 times; catching 8 balls for 99 yards.  This included a fantastic 33 yard catch, which was quite beautiful.  Open early and often, Wilkerson continued to send a message to Belichek that he should be on this roster and featured.  I, for one, believe in Kristian Wilkerson moving forward and here’s why.

The Story So Far

Wilkerson wasn’t a stud straight out of the gate in college but by his third year, he was showing the NCAA what he could do.  Even more impressively, his senior year he opened more eyes with his skill and poise.  In his senior year, he caught 71 passes for 1,350 yards, while adding 10 touchdowns.  It’s important to note that that next closest receiver had virtually half the yards and less than half the touchdowns.  All in all, during his tenure at Southeast Missouri State, he compiled 219 receptions for 3,540 yards and 33 touchdowns.  It helps to know that these are all school records.

Given the opportunity, Wilkerson, receiving from a quarterback who wasn’t a big name by the way, dominated opposing defenders.  But despite all his pizzazz, he was left undrafted.  Although Tennessee took a chance on the UDFA, it was short lived.  Without the draft investment, it was easy for the Titans to not feature him and ultimately cut him loose.  He’s been with the Patriots since 2020, just waiting for his chance.  Is it only a matter of time until the front office sees what they have?

What Competition?

If we’re being honest, the New England Patriots aren’t boasting the most dominant receiving room in the league this year.  Not only that, but the depth is not much to write home about.  While New England does have Jakobi Meyers, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne as starters, those names are not ones that are setting the NFL on fire.  Sure, there is money invested, but the chance to make a name for yourself in New England is one of the better places in the league for wide receivers.

The Patriots also invested fairly heavily in Tyquan Thornton in the draft this year, using a second round pick, but after that, the depth is full of question marks.  So, why not take a chance on Kristian WIlkerson?  He’s shown in limited capacity that he can score and dominate in the NFL, so hedging a bet on him squeezing his way into the starting lineup isn’t that far off.  The depth isn’t there and the starters aren’t immovable, so this all equals a golden opportunity for Wilkerson if he can just get his chance.

Final Thoughts

In dynasty, we need to take advantage of finding deep sleepers while others are simply sleeping on them.  The National Football League is truly a league of, “What have you done for me lately?”, meaning that the rosters are forever fluid.  It’s not a stretch to imagine DeVante Parker being on a short leash, despite the monetary investment.  Same goes for Nelson Agholor, who was admirable but not amazing last year.  And while I doubt Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne don’t run the show at receiver this season for the Patriots, there is plenty of room for more as Mac Jones isn’t a runner and will throw often.

The best news is that Kristian Wilkerson is pretty much free in most leagues.  In the multiple leagues I play in, he was sitting in free agency.  And if someone in your league has him, there’s a good chance he can be treated as a “throw in” player in a deal that you can easily make.  In redraft, I’m not preaching the Wilkerson gospel yet, but in dynasty the time is now.  Make sure Kristian Wilkerson is on your roster moving forward.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Deep Stash – Makai Polk

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Dynasty Deep Stash – Makai Polk

By Tim Lazenby

In dynasty fantasy football every player in the league is in the discussion to bring about success.  While there are certainties like the top players at the position, there are also breakout players and sleepers to keep an eye on.  Well, below them there are an assortment of deep stash players to cross your fingers and just hope they succeed.  As many of these players are essentially “free” in drafts or can be thrown in as part of trades with relative ease, finding these deep stashes can be very lucrative if you know where to look.  One such player is Makai Polk of the Baltimore Ravens.  

Heading into the 2022 NFL Entry Draft, many players were holding draft parties knowing full well their names would be called.  There were other players wondering how far past day one they would have to wait to don their new colors with their new NFL teams.  And despite all the talent, drive and determination, some players simply wouldn’t be drafted at all.  Being left alone after the draft would have them entering the uncertain land of the UDFA.  

I’ll admit I was somewhat surprised that Makai Polk was left as an undrafted free agent after the draft.  While he wasn’t the only surprise for me and I knew there was a chance no one would take a shot on him, it was still shocking to see 262 players chosen before Polk.  I am fully aware that there wasn’t a lot of hype behind the Mississippi State product, but I still believed.  Before I delve any further, let’s go over the numbers.

Tale of the Tape

Makai Polk 

6’3” 195 lbs

Hands – 9.48”

Arm – 32.2”

Wing – 77.7”

40 time – 4.59 

Vertical – 31.0

Shuttle – 4.36

Let’s face it: Makai Polk had a bad combine if you look at the numbers for the drills.  Of 32 wide receivers who ran the 40 yard dash, he finished 26th.  Among the 34 wide receivers who attempted the vertical jump, Makai finished 32nd.  Finally, among the 13 wide receivers who attempted the shuttle, Makai finished 7th.  The combine truthers came out of the woodworks against Polk and any other player who performed poorly in these circumstances.

And while these numbers look appalling, especially the 40 time that everyone and their mom cares so much about, I’m here to tell you it’s not everything.  Did you know that Antonio Brown (4.56), for example, ran at a very similar time?  Legends Larry Fitzgerald (4.63), Anquan Boldin (4.71) and arguably the greatest of all time, Jerry Rice (4.71) were all way slower at the 40 than Makai Polk.  While I don’t think Polk is a surefire bet to meet their numbers, it’s still important to know.  I’m not saying that the 40 yard dash and other spectacles are useless, but they should be treated more like evidence than proof of a player’s skill on the football field.

I’ve preached for years now that I don’t care that much about combine numbers.  I watch it as often as I can, but it’s more for entertainment.  I care far more about watching how players do in football situations like actually running routes and catching balls. On the positive side, Polk measured well when it comes to size.  We all know that smaller players can succeed for sure, but it’s certainly not hurting a player’s chances if they are larger.  Makai Polk measured among the bigger players in all his physical aspects, notably being in the top ten in wingspan.  I just love a receiver with reach.

College Years

Long before the draft, Makai Polk began his college career at California.  And although he wasn’t bad, he certainly didn’t stand out.  After playing only 12 games in two seasons, it was clear that a change of pace was in order.  Despite the Pac-12 being a typically easier division, Polk’s time in California did not show what he was capable of.  In a large twist, going to a tougher SEC division, he actually excelled at Mississippi State.  Here are his final numbers in college.

13 games, 105 receptions, 1046 yards, 9 touchdowns

And in case you don’t know how good that is, he broke his school’s single season records in receptions and yards.  His receptions were also the best in the entire SEC division, arguably the top division in all of college football.  What he accomplished is even more impressive considering the scheme he played in.  His coach had designed the plays to be short and sweet, so we never really got to see how good Polk could be if his quarterback would just uncork the ball and throw it up for Polk.

Final Thoughts

There’s much to be said about the fact that I am not a professional scout, coach or manager as much as I like to believe I am.  While I often have to just accept what grade the big boys give to players, there are circumstances where my football “spidey-sense” just has to override it all.  I simply cannot see a world in which Makai Polk doesn’t eventually land his opportunity with all the size and talent that he has.  A bad combine derailed his chances at being drafted, but let’s not forget what has happened after the draft.

Polk now heads to Baltimore where the situation is just about as good as it can get.  While it’s true that the Ravens are among the league’s top rushing offenses, the Ravens’ quarterbacks still threw the ball 611 times last season.  With Marquise Brown now gone, his 146 targets are up for grabs.  Add to that the fact that Baltimore has one of the most inexperienced receiving corps in the league, it’s all looking up for Makai as long as he can work his way into the lineup.  With Rashod Bateman as the top option at wide receiver, I can’t think of a better landing spot.

I’m not telling you to spend a top pick on Polk or trade your elite talent to acquire him.  I am saying, however, that there isn’t a better player who costs you pretty much nothing.  In dynasty, where you have deeper benches to fill and time to wait, do the right thing for your team and get Makai Polk on your roster.  

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Super Bowl 2022 Prediction

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Super Bowl 2022 Prediction

By Tim Lazenby

What a thrill the 2022 NFL playoffs predictions have been so far.  We’ve predicted some landslides, some tightly fought matches, some favorites moving on and some underdogs fighting their way to the top.  With all the excitement, it’s time to bring it to a close, but before we do, here’s a recap of how each team will do in the standings according to my predictions.

 

NFC

North                                                    East                                                         South                                                        West

Green Bay Packers 10-7-0              Dallas Cowboys 8-9-0                          Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-6-0            Los Angeles Rams 12-5-0

Minnesota Vikings 8-9-0                   Philadelphia Eagles 8-9-0                     Carolina Panthers 6-11-0                        Arizona Cardinals 11-6-0

Chicago Bears 7-10-0                        New York Giants 6-11-0                         New Orleans Saints 4-13                        San Francisco 49ers 7-10-0

Detroit Lions 7-10-0                           Washington Commanders 4-12-1        Atlanta Falcons 3-13-1                            Seattle Seahawks 3-14-0

AFC

North                                                    East                                                          South                                                         West

Cincinnati Bengals 12-5-0                Buffalo Bills 13-4-0                               Indianapolis Colts 12-5-0                       Los Angeles Chargers 14-3-0

Pittsburgh Steelers 11-6-0                 Miami Dolphins 10-7-0                          Tennessee Titans 9-8-0                           Kansas City Chiefs 10-7-0

Baltimore Ravens 9-8-0                      New York Jets 9-8-0                               Jacksonville Jaguars 8-9-0                     Denver Broncos 9-8-0

Cleveland Browns 8-9-0                     New England Patriots 8-9-0                   Houston Texans 3-14-0                           Las Vegas Raiders 8-9-0

With all of that out of the way, I bring to you your Super Bowl contestants for 2022-23.  In a battle for the city of Los Angeles, the Rams and the Chargers will headline Super Bowl LVII a year too late from playing at Inglewood.  Hold onto your seats as this battle of LA will be one for the ages.  Let’s see how this unfolds.

 

Super Bowl 2022

Los Angeles Rams 12-5-0 (1) vs Los Angeles Chargers 14-3-0 (1)

Last Game: Chargers 23 @ Rams 35 (09-23-2018)

Rams lead all time series 7-5-0

In 1976, the NFL adopted the system that places the seeds in the playoffs and it has been a rarity for number one seeds to face off in the Super Bowl.  Two number one seeds meeting in the Super Bowl has only happened 13 times, with the most recent meeting happening in 2017-18.  Well, in 2022-23, it’s going to mark the 14th time in this battle of Los Angeles.

There have also never been two teams from the same city that have matched up against each other in the Super Bowl before.  In fact, only twice has there been a Super Bowl featuring two teams from the same state, so history will be made next year before the whistle is even blown to start the Rams versus Charger game.  But just matching up against each other isn’t what fans will be speaking of when all is said and done.

In the Rams, you have a proven winner.  Although McVay brings a stellar 55-26-0 record to the Rams in the regular season, his postseason success is even better at 7-3-0.  With two Super Bowl appearances and one win, the Rams are a team hell bent on success and there aren’t many teams that can compete on all cylinders like the Rams can.  This team is complete from top to bottom.

The Chargers, on the other hand, haven’t seen anything near the success that the Rams have.  After all, it’s been over a decade since they even won their own division, let alone had success in the playoffs.  With only two postseason appearances in their last twelve, the Chargers in many ways remind me of the Bengals: a team brimming with youth and potential, just waiting for their turn at the top.

On offense, both teams are near the top of the league.  Sporting talent at every position, it’s either team’s spot to lose, but I give the slight edge to the Chargers.  The quartet of Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams is rivaled by few in this league.  It’s not to say that the Rams aren’t elite in their own rite, but if I have to pick, I’m giving the edge to the Chargers.

When it comes to defense, I’m also giving the edge to the Chargers here.  It seems disrespectful to not choose the team with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but they don’t quite match up against the likes of Derwin James, Joey Bosa, JC Jackson and Khalil Mack.  The depth also goes to the Chargers.  Though the Rams are no slouch here, the edge is quite evident.

All that being said, despite the edge on offense and defense, this game will be tight.  The Chargers will still need to overcome their lack of playoff experience to have a chance against the completely seasoned Rams.  And with Matthew Stafford as the best comeback quarterback in the league, this battle should be one that will not be easily decided.  I can see the Super Bowl extending past regulation for only the second time in the National Football League’s rich history.

With everything on the line, this match will not disappoint.  Multiple lead changes and excitement on all fronts, the battle of LA will be one of the best matches in Super Bowl history.  Yet despite not wanting to name a loser, there can be only one winner.  The Rams will put up the fight of the ages, even being on top at times, but in the end, it will be the other LA team raising the trophy past 60 minutes.  And for the first time since Super Bowl 50, I see a defensive player taking the Super Bowl MVP in 2022-23.

Chargers win Super Bowl LVII 23-17

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Conference Championship Predictions 2022

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Conference Championship Predictions 2022

By Tim Lazenby

As we come another step closer to predicting who will raise the Lombardi trophy in the NFL in 2022, let’s discuss the Conference Championship.  Three playoff contenders return from last season and one new one enters.  This round will shine like the rest, so let’s see who continues on.

NFC Conference Championship 

Arizona Cardinals 11-6-0 (5) vs Los Angeles Rams 12-5-0 (1)

Last Game: Arizona Cardinals 11 @ Los Angeles 34 (01-17-22)

Los Angeles leads all time series 47-39-2

The Cardinals versus the Rams brings excitement and intrigue in many different facets, and I look forward to seeing them in full display in this highly anticipated rematch of last year’s divisional playoffs.  It was a straight up mollywhopping last time around, but will it be the same this time around?  Will the Rams have their way again or will Kyler Murray and his team show they aren’t going to be pushed around any more?

To me, the edge on defense goes to the Rams.  Featuring a cast rivaled by few, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey alone are enough to terrorize but they aren’t alone.  Other players like Leonard Floyd are vastly underrated and Bobby Wagner’s presence is still one to behold.  You have to remember, though, that the Cardinals defense is also fantastic.  The Cardinals defense is still one to be taken seriously; make no mistake.

As far as offense is concerned, despite all the weapons the Rams boast, I give the edge to the Cardinals.  And while the Rams may have the better talent on an individual basis, as a collective unit, I’m going with Arizona.  DeAndre Hopkins will be thriving come this time of the year and James Conner continues to be forgotten when he should be focused on.  The depth for the Cardinals also gets the edge on my end.

In a battle between the better offense versus the better defense, it’s sure to be a close one.  In my heart of hearts, I want to choose the Cardinals here as they will be hungrier and want to prove themselves to be the team on top.  That being said, it’s hard to ignore recent history.  Even though I see the Cardinals as the better team, I’m going with the Rams this time around.  Come this time in 2023, it’ll be a different story.

Los Angeles Rams advance, winning 27-23

AFC Conference Championship 

Buffalo Bills 13-4-0 (2) vs Los Angeles Chargers 14-3-0 (1)

Last Game: Los Angeles 17 @ Buffalo 27 (11-29-2020)

Los Angeles leads all time series 25-13-2

From a fantasy football perspective, this matchup is truly insane.  Featuring, in my mind, the two best quarterbacks in the game, this matchup won’t even come close to disappointing.  In real life, it’s almost just as exciting.  Of all of the games so far in this series, this is the one I’m wanting to see more than anything.  If we get lucky enough to watch it on full display, let’s discuss what the outcome will be.

If we’re talking defense here, I think it will be the two best defenses in the league.  Although I want to give the edge to the Chargers with all of their newly acquired talent, I’m going to give it to the Bills this time.  It takes time for talent to really meld, and the Bills are already there.  That being said, it’s the slightest of margins.  The Chargers played worse than they should have on defense last year, and with players like Khalil Mack and JC Jackson being added, they’ll be second best in 2022.

On offense, although the Bills will be fantastic, it won’t be at the same level as the Chargers.  Although the Chargers won’t be the best offense in the entire league, they’re near the top.  Despite all of the rage of Josh Allen as the best quarterback, I am certain Justin Herbert has the edge and Austin Ekeler will prove his worth once again.  There is no facet of Buffalo’s offense that is better than Los Angeles’.

So, much like in the NFC, it's a battle between the better offense versus the better defense.  And, like I said before, even though one is better than the other, it’s awfully close.  I see this going very similarly to the Buffalo versus Kansas City game in the playoffs last season.  The difference is that the offense won’t be able to run as wild as these defenses will hold the other side more accountable.  What a thriller it will be.

Los Angeles Chargers advance, winning 30-21

There’s one more round to go in 2022.  Two teams but only one can win it all.  The anticipation is killing me.  Check later for the exciting conclusion.

 

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