Tim Lazenby

Dynasty Deep Stash – Kristian Wilkerson

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Dynasty Deep Stash - Kristian Wilkerson

By Tim Lazenby

After far too long without football, we can all sing praises to our favorite football players and teams as we can finally see them in action.  After months of speculation, analysis and flat out dreaming, the preseason is here!  While we can’t take too much stock in the preseason as most of the starters are resting, it’s still football.  And for that we can all be thankful.  As the preseason continues on, it’s a great time for fans, but it’s an even greater time for dynasty fantasy football managers.  Many of the young unknowns are taking the field, trying to prove their worth and we need to take advantage.

Today, let’s turn our attention to New England Patriots wide receiver, Kristian Wilkerson.  Wilkerson made some waves late last season in the last game of the year where he torched the Jacksonville Jaguars for two touchdowns.  It’s important to settle our excitement as the lowly Jags were well out of it by this point and it was only one game, but it certainly was worth noting.

Getting back to the present, in New England’s only action so far this preseason, Wilkerson certainly wasn’t forgotten.  While he missed out on a touchdown, he was targeted a team high 12 times; catching 8 balls for 99 yards.  This included a fantastic 33 yard catch, which was quite beautiful.  Open early and often, Wilkerson continued to send a message to Belichek that he should be on this roster and featured.  I, for one, believe in Kristian Wilkerson moving forward and here’s why.

The Story So Far

Wilkerson wasn’t a stud straight out of the gate in college but by his third year, he was showing the NCAA what he could do.  Even more impressively, his senior year he opened more eyes with his skill and poise.  In his senior year, he caught 71 passes for 1,350 yards, while adding 10 touchdowns.  It’s important to note that that next closest receiver had virtually half the yards and less than half the touchdowns.  All in all, during his tenure at Southeast Missouri State, he compiled 219 receptions for 3,540 yards and 33 touchdowns.  It helps to know that these are all school records.

Given the opportunity, Wilkerson, receiving from a quarterback who wasn’t a big name by the way, dominated opposing defenders.  But despite all his pizzazz, he was left undrafted.  Although Tennessee took a chance on the UDFA, it was short lived.  Without the draft investment, it was easy for the Titans to not feature him and ultimately cut him loose.  He’s been with the Patriots since 2020, just waiting for his chance.  Is it only a matter of time until the front office sees what they have?

What Competition?

If we’re being honest, the New England Patriots aren’t boasting the most dominant receiving room in the league this year.  Not only that, but the depth is not much to write home about.  While New England does have Jakobi Meyers, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne as starters, those names are not ones that are setting the NFL on fire.  Sure, there is money invested, but the chance to make a name for yourself in New England is one of the better places in the league for wide receivers.

The Patriots also invested fairly heavily in Tyquan Thornton in the draft this year, using a second round pick, but after that, the depth is full of question marks.  So, why not take a chance on Kristian WIlkerson?  He’s shown in limited capacity that he can score and dominate in the NFL, so hedging a bet on him squeezing his way into the starting lineup isn’t that far off.  The depth isn’t there and the starters aren’t immovable, so this all equals a golden opportunity for Wilkerson if he can just get his chance.

Final Thoughts

In dynasty, we need to take advantage of finding deep sleepers while others are simply sleeping on them.  The National Football League is truly a league of, “What have you done for me lately?”, meaning that the rosters are forever fluid.  It’s not a stretch to imagine DeVante Parker being on a short leash, despite the monetary investment.  Same goes for Nelson Agholor, who was admirable but not amazing last year.  And while I doubt Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne don’t run the show at receiver this season for the Patriots, there is plenty of room for more as Mac Jones isn’t a runner and will throw often.

The best news is that Kristian Wilkerson is pretty much free in most leagues.  In the multiple leagues I play in, he was sitting in free agency.  And if someone in your league has him, there’s a good chance he can be treated as a “throw in” player in a deal that you can easily make.  In redraft, I’m not preaching the Wilkerson gospel yet, but in dynasty the time is now.  Make sure Kristian Wilkerson is on your roster moving forward.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Deep Stash – Makai Polk

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Dynasty Deep Stash – Makai Polk

By Tim Lazenby

In dynasty fantasy football every player in the league is in the discussion to bring about success.  While there are certainties like the top players at the position, there are also breakout players and sleepers to keep an eye on.  Well, below them there are an assortment of deep stash players to cross your fingers and just hope they succeed.  As many of these players are essentially “free” in drafts or can be thrown in as part of trades with relative ease, finding these deep stashes can be very lucrative if you know where to look.  One such player is Makai Polk of the Baltimore Ravens.  

Heading into the 2022 NFL Entry Draft, many players were holding draft parties knowing full well their names would be called.  There were other players wondering how far past day one they would have to wait to don their new colors with their new NFL teams.  And despite all the talent, drive and determination, some players simply wouldn’t be drafted at all.  Being left alone after the draft would have them entering the uncertain land of the UDFA.  

I’ll admit I was somewhat surprised that Makai Polk was left as an undrafted free agent after the draft.  While he wasn’t the only surprise for me and I knew there was a chance no one would take a shot on him, it was still shocking to see 262 players chosen before Polk.  I am fully aware that there wasn’t a lot of hype behind the Mississippi State product, but I still believed.  Before I delve any further, let’s go over the numbers.

Tale of the Tape

Makai Polk 

6’3” 195 lbs

Hands – 9.48”

Arm – 32.2”

Wing – 77.7”

40 time – 4.59 

Vertical – 31.0

Shuttle – 4.36

Let’s face it: Makai Polk had a bad combine if you look at the numbers for the drills.  Of 32 wide receivers who ran the 40 yard dash, he finished 26th.  Among the 34 wide receivers who attempted the vertical jump, Makai finished 32nd.  Finally, among the 13 wide receivers who attempted the shuttle, Makai finished 7th.  The combine truthers came out of the woodworks against Polk and any other player who performed poorly in these circumstances.

And while these numbers look appalling, especially the 40 time that everyone and their mom cares so much about, I’m here to tell you it’s not everything.  Did you know that Antonio Brown (4.56), for example, ran at a very similar time?  Legends Larry Fitzgerald (4.63), Anquan Boldin (4.71) and arguably the greatest of all time, Jerry Rice (4.71) were all way slower at the 40 than Makai Polk.  While I don’t think Polk is a surefire bet to meet their numbers, it’s still important to know.  I’m not saying that the 40 yard dash and other spectacles are useless, but they should be treated more like evidence than proof of a player’s skill on the football field.

I’ve preached for years now that I don’t care that much about combine numbers.  I watch it as often as I can, but it’s more for entertainment.  I care far more about watching how players do in football situations like actually running routes and catching balls. On the positive side, Polk measured well when it comes to size.  We all know that smaller players can succeed for sure, but it’s certainly not hurting a player’s chances if they are larger.  Makai Polk measured among the bigger players in all his physical aspects, notably being in the top ten in wingspan.  I just love a receiver with reach.

College Years

Long before the draft, Makai Polk began his college career at California.  And although he wasn’t bad, he certainly didn’t stand out.  After playing only 12 games in two seasons, it was clear that a change of pace was in order.  Despite the Pac-12 being a typically easier division, Polk’s time in California did not show what he was capable of.  In a large twist, going to a tougher SEC division, he actually excelled at Mississippi State.  Here are his final numbers in college.

13 games, 105 receptions, 1046 yards, 9 touchdowns

And in case you don’t know how good that is, he broke his school’s single season records in receptions and yards.  His receptions were also the best in the entire SEC division, arguably the top division in all of college football.  What he accomplished is even more impressive considering the scheme he played in.  His coach had designed the plays to be short and sweet, so we never really got to see how good Polk could be if his quarterback would just uncork the ball and throw it up for Polk.

Final Thoughts

There’s much to be said about the fact that I am not a professional scout, coach or manager as much as I like to believe I am.  While I often have to just accept what grade the big boys give to players, there are circumstances where my football “spidey-sense” just has to override it all.  I simply cannot see a world in which Makai Polk doesn’t eventually land his opportunity with all the size and talent that he has.  A bad combine derailed his chances at being drafted, but let’s not forget what has happened after the draft.

Polk now heads to Baltimore where the situation is just about as good as it can get.  While it’s true that the Ravens are among the league’s top rushing offenses, the Ravens’ quarterbacks still threw the ball 611 times last season.  With Marquise Brown now gone, his 146 targets are up for grabs.  Add to that the fact that Baltimore has one of the most inexperienced receiving corps in the league, it’s all looking up for Makai as long as he can work his way into the lineup.  With Rashod Bateman as the top option at wide receiver, I can’t think of a better landing spot.

I’m not telling you to spend a top pick on Polk or trade your elite talent to acquire him.  I am saying, however, that there isn’t a better player who costs you pretty much nothing.  In dynasty, where you have deeper benches to fill and time to wait, do the right thing for your team and get Makai Polk on your roster.  

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Super Bowl 2022 Prediction

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Super Bowl 2022 Prediction

By Tim Lazenby

What a thrill the 2022 NFL playoffs predictions have been so far.  We’ve predicted some landslides, some tightly fought matches, some favorites moving on and some underdogs fighting their way to the top.  With all the excitement, it’s time to bring it to a close, but before we do, here’s a recap of how each team will do in the standings according to my predictions.

 

NFC

North                                                    East                                                         South                                                        West

Green Bay Packers 10-7-0              Dallas Cowboys 8-9-0                          Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-6-0            Los Angeles Rams 12-5-0

Minnesota Vikings 8-9-0                   Philadelphia Eagles 8-9-0                     Carolina Panthers 6-11-0                        Arizona Cardinals 11-6-0

Chicago Bears 7-10-0                        New York Giants 6-11-0                         New Orleans Saints 4-13                        San Francisco 49ers 7-10-0

Detroit Lions 7-10-0                           Washington Commanders 4-12-1        Atlanta Falcons 3-13-1                            Seattle Seahawks 3-14-0

AFC

North                                                    East                                                          South                                                         West

Cincinnati Bengals 12-5-0                Buffalo Bills 13-4-0                               Indianapolis Colts 12-5-0                       Los Angeles Chargers 14-3-0

Pittsburgh Steelers 11-6-0                 Miami Dolphins 10-7-0                          Tennessee Titans 9-8-0                           Kansas City Chiefs 10-7-0

Baltimore Ravens 9-8-0                      New York Jets 9-8-0                               Jacksonville Jaguars 8-9-0                     Denver Broncos 9-8-0

Cleveland Browns 8-9-0                     New England Patriots 8-9-0                   Houston Texans 3-14-0                           Las Vegas Raiders 8-9-0

With all of that out of the way, I bring to you your Super Bowl contestants for 2022-23.  In a battle for the city of Los Angeles, the Rams and the Chargers will headline Super Bowl LVII a year too late from playing at Inglewood.  Hold onto your seats as this battle of LA will be one for the ages.  Let’s see how this unfolds.

 

Super Bowl 2022

Los Angeles Rams 12-5-0 (1) vs Los Angeles Chargers 14-3-0 (1)

Last Game: Chargers 23 @ Rams 35 (09-23-2018)

Rams lead all time series 7-5-0

In 1976, the NFL adopted the system that places the seeds in the playoffs and it has been a rarity for number one seeds to face off in the Super Bowl.  Two number one seeds meeting in the Super Bowl has only happened 13 times, with the most recent meeting happening in 2017-18.  Well, in 2022-23, it’s going to mark the 14th time in this battle of Los Angeles.

There have also never been two teams from the same city that have matched up against each other in the Super Bowl before.  In fact, only twice has there been a Super Bowl featuring two teams from the same state, so history will be made next year before the whistle is even blown to start the Rams versus Charger game.  But just matching up against each other isn’t what fans will be speaking of when all is said and done.

In the Rams, you have a proven winner.  Although McVay brings a stellar 55-26-0 record to the Rams in the regular season, his postseason success is even better at 7-3-0.  With two Super Bowl appearances and one win, the Rams are a team hell bent on success and there aren’t many teams that can compete on all cylinders like the Rams can.  This team is complete from top to bottom.

The Chargers, on the other hand, haven’t seen anything near the success that the Rams have.  After all, it’s been over a decade since they even won their own division, let alone had success in the playoffs.  With only two postseason appearances in their last twelve, the Chargers in many ways remind me of the Bengals: a team brimming with youth and potential, just waiting for their turn at the top.

On offense, both teams are near the top of the league.  Sporting talent at every position, it’s either team’s spot to lose, but I give the slight edge to the Chargers.  The quartet of Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams is rivaled by few in this league.  It’s not to say that the Rams aren’t elite in their own rite, but if I have to pick, I’m giving the edge to the Chargers.

When it comes to defense, I’m also giving the edge to the Chargers here.  It seems disrespectful to not choose the team with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but they don’t quite match up against the likes of Derwin James, Joey Bosa, JC Jackson and Khalil Mack.  The depth also goes to the Chargers.  Though the Rams are no slouch here, the edge is quite evident.

All that being said, despite the edge on offense and defense, this game will be tight.  The Chargers will still need to overcome their lack of playoff experience to have a chance against the completely seasoned Rams.  And with Matthew Stafford as the best comeback quarterback in the league, this battle should be one that will not be easily decided.  I can see the Super Bowl extending past regulation for only the second time in the National Football League’s rich history.

With everything on the line, this match will not disappoint.  Multiple lead changes and excitement on all fronts, the battle of LA will be one of the best matches in Super Bowl history.  Yet despite not wanting to name a loser, there can be only one winner.  The Rams will put up the fight of the ages, even being on top at times, but in the end, it will be the other LA team raising the trophy past 60 minutes.  And for the first time since Super Bowl 50, I see a defensive player taking the Super Bowl MVP in 2022-23.

Chargers win Super Bowl LVII 23-17

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Conference Championship Predictions 2022

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Conference Championship Predictions 2022

By Tim Lazenby

As we come another step closer to predicting who will raise the Lombardi trophy in the NFL in 2022, let’s discuss the Conference Championship.  Three playoff contenders return from last season and one new one enters.  This round will shine like the rest, so let’s see who continues on.

NFC Conference Championship 

Arizona Cardinals 11-6-0 (5) vs Los Angeles Rams 12-5-0 (1)

Last Game: Arizona Cardinals 11 @ Los Angeles 34 (01-17-22)

Los Angeles leads all time series 47-39-2

The Cardinals versus the Rams brings excitement and intrigue in many different facets, and I look forward to seeing them in full display in this highly anticipated rematch of last year’s divisional playoffs.  It was a straight up mollywhopping last time around, but will it be the same this time around?  Will the Rams have their way again or will Kyler Murray and his team show they aren’t going to be pushed around any more?

To me, the edge on defense goes to the Rams.  Featuring a cast rivaled by few, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey alone are enough to terrorize but they aren’t alone.  Other players like Leonard Floyd are vastly underrated and Bobby Wagner’s presence is still one to behold.  You have to remember, though, that the Cardinals defense is also fantastic.  The Cardinals defense is still one to be taken seriously; make no mistake.

As far as offense is concerned, despite all the weapons the Rams boast, I give the edge to the Cardinals.  And while the Rams may have the better talent on an individual basis, as a collective unit, I’m going with Arizona.  DeAndre Hopkins will be thriving come this time of the year and James Conner continues to be forgotten when he should be focused on.  The depth for the Cardinals also gets the edge on my end.

In a battle between the better offense versus the better defense, it’s sure to be a close one.  In my heart of hearts, I want to choose the Cardinals here as they will be hungrier and want to prove themselves to be the team on top.  That being said, it’s hard to ignore recent history.  Even though I see the Cardinals as the better team, I’m going with the Rams this time around.  Come this time in 2023, it’ll be a different story.

Los Angeles Rams advance, winning 27-23

AFC Conference Championship 

Buffalo Bills 13-4-0 (2) vs Los Angeles Chargers 14-3-0 (1)

Last Game: Los Angeles 17 @ Buffalo 27 (11-29-2020)

Los Angeles leads all time series 25-13-2

From a fantasy football perspective, this matchup is truly insane.  Featuring, in my mind, the two best quarterbacks in the game, this matchup won’t even come close to disappointing.  In real life, it’s almost just as exciting.  Of all of the games so far in this series, this is the one I’m wanting to see more than anything.  If we get lucky enough to watch it on full display, let’s discuss what the outcome will be.

If we’re talking defense here, I think it will be the two best defenses in the league.  Although I want to give the edge to the Chargers with all of their newly acquired talent, I’m going to give it to the Bills this time.  It takes time for talent to really meld, and the Bills are already there.  That being said, it’s the slightest of margins.  The Chargers played worse than they should have on defense last year, and with players like Khalil Mack and JC Jackson being added, they’ll be second best in 2022.

On offense, although the Bills will be fantastic, it won’t be at the same level as the Chargers.  Although the Chargers won’t be the best offense in the entire league, they’re near the top.  Despite all of the rage of Josh Allen as the best quarterback, I am certain Justin Herbert has the edge and Austin Ekeler will prove his worth once again.  There is no facet of Buffalo’s offense that is better than Los Angeles’.

So, much like in the NFC, it's a battle between the better offense versus the better defense.  And, like I said before, even though one is better than the other, it’s awfully close.  I see this going very similarly to the Buffalo versus Kansas City game in the playoffs last season.  The difference is that the offense won’t be able to run as wild as these defenses will hold the other side more accountable.  What a thriller it will be.

Los Angeles Chargers advance, winning 30-21

There’s one more round to go in 2022.  Two teams but only one can win it all.  The anticipation is killing me.  Check later for the exciting conclusion.

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Veterans and Dynasty Value

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Veterans and Dynasty Value

By Tim Lazenby

It’s impossible to overlook the effect of Father Time in fantasy football when it comes to dynasty format.  But just because a player isn’t as young as he once was, it doesn’t mean his value is nil.  I’m going to give you three players at each skilled position to target knowing full well my projected shelf life of elite play.  Let’s begin with the tight ends.

Tight Ends

The fall off age for a player depends on position and at tight end, the magical age is 28.  Although there are rarities, statistics show that after the age of 27, you see less tight ends dominating and the drop off in contribution beginning.  Let me give you one veteran to target for this year, one who will be good for a couple seasons and one who will be good for three or more.

Very Relevant for Next Year

Gerald Everett (28) is a good target for this category.  While he’s not in the upper echelon of tight ends, his value should go way up now that he’s with Justin Herbert and Co.  I do fear that he’s a temporary fix, but when he is priced at TE21 (166 overall), the price doesn’t get much better.  If we’ve learned anything from this team, it’s that they love to throw.  And this should be exploited even more as this will be the best offensive tight end he’s played with.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Zach Ertz (31) is a great target if you’re looking for a guy with a couple years of solid fantasy play.  It may surprise some to know that after the trade to Arizona, Zach Ertz was the TE6 on the season.  And while Marquise Brown hurts his value, I don’t think Ertz will subside greatly.  It’s also going to take a couple seasons for Trey McBride to claw his way to the top of the depth chart, but even when he does, Ertz has shown he can share a field with a partner.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

Call me crazy, but I think we still have tons of time left to appreciate the legend of Travis Kelce (32).  A unicorn in his own rite, Kelce has been nothing but dominant since day one.  With the receiving room having been overhauled in Kansas City, there is no doubt in my mind that Kelce will be targeted more now than ever.  Lastly, for those scared off by his age, legends Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten have both played over twice the amount of career games as Kelce.  While that may not be a guarantee of how long Kelce will play, he’s certainly got lots of time left.

Wide Receiver

For me, the magical age for fall off when it comes to wide receiver is 29.  There is a rapid decline once you cross over into the 30s, but that doesn’t mean that all players are dead in the water after their twenties.  Let’s throw three wide receivers, at least 29 years old, at you who are still elite in dynasty.

Very Relevant For Next Year

There’s a lot that makes fantasy managers nervous about Robert Woods (30) moving forward.  Just coming off injury and moving to a new system can be nerve wracking, but the price is right.  Despite competition in Treylon Burks, that’s where the list ends.  It also helps Woods’ case that stud Derrick Henry is coming off an injury himself, so they can’t pound the rock as hard as they want.  At WR38 (101 overall), his price has never been this good since his days in Buffalo.  Treylon will take over, make no mistake, but this season Robert Woods has a real shot at WR2 status.

He’s Got a Couple Years

With my second Charger in this article, we can’t overlook the glaring value of Keenan Allen (30).  Since 2018, Keenan Allen is the only wide receiver to get over 130 targets every season.  The early years with injuries haven’t been forgotten for some, so take advantage.  And make no mistake, this receiver room belongs to Keenan Allen, not Mike Williams.  He’s also being drafted in the 30s in some circumstances.  Go after a manager who only sees him as a one year player and take Allen all the way to the championship.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

Davante Adams (29) is the only 99 wide receiver on Madden.  And even though many people disagree with many ratings, most agree on this one.  That being said, some are concerned now that Davante is going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr.  I’m going to go on record and state that talent is talent.  Adams is special and he’ll shine no matter where he goes.  It also doesn’t hurt that I think Carr is underrated.  I can’t see a world in which Davante Adams isn’t elite for at least another 3-5 years and hopefully you can’t either.

Running Backs

Everyone knows that the shelf life is the shortest with the running back.  Being the most physical position in the league, it makes complete sense.  It’s also the hardest to find true value.  Once a running back hits 26 years old, I begin to get nervous.  Here is a list of three running backs, 27 or older, to consider under the previous noted criteria.

Very Relevant for Next Year

The list of running backs is more sparse than other positions.  Ezekiel Elliott (27) is a name this season, in dynasty, that many managers are treating like a ghost.  It makes sense as 2021 was his worst year to date, but let’s not forget the situation the man is in.  It is true that Tony Pollard is chomping at the bit, but the reality is that the Cowboys are far too financially invested in Zeke to not showcase him.  He still also plays behind arguably the best O-line in the league and the passing options have decreased from last year.  Zeke has never been cheaper.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Going back to back and featuring Titans, I’m going with Derrick Henry (28) here.  I can’t recall a more dominant runner in recent history than Henry.  A giant among mortals, Henry broke many hearts as he went down with injury last season.  And while I don’t think he’ll be up to speed immediately, it won’t take forever.  The cupboards are also not overflowing with running backs to take a stab at his crown.  In redraft, he’s still quite expensive, but in dynasty he’s ripe for the picking.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

I’d be lying if I thought any running back over 26 could be a surefire bet to fit this category, but if you’re forcing my hand, I’m going right back to the Chargers in Austin Ekeler (27).  I know I’m super pro-Chargers here, but there is good reason to be.  If the Chargers hadn’t drafted Isaiah Spiller, I’d be more nervous, but this gives shelf life to Ekeler.  Now he doesn’t have to be on the field all the time and he can be used in far less physical situations.  Much like Henry, in redraft the value is high, but in dynasty, you can still make a profit.

Quarterbacks

Lastly, we move on to the most critical role in all of sports.  In fantasy, especially if you are playing 2 QB or superflex, hitting the right value on quarterbacks is essential.  The longevity of a quarterback is the best of the bunch, but that also makes it harder to take advantage of a good value.  Once a quarterback hits 33 years old, I get leery.  But, have no fear, as I am going to give you three quarterbacks to go for in dynasty who are 34 year old or more.

Very Relevant for Next Year

Well, this category was much easier than the others as there are only four starting quarterbacks that are 34 or older.  The answer to this first one is quite simple.  Although Tom Brady is one I’d take for sure for next year’s value, I’m going Aaron Rodgers (38) because I want a chance at more years.  Though Rodgers is signed for multiple years, I never quite trust him.  And for that reason, if you’re only focused on winning the championship, he’s a great target.   With many worried managers just wanting him off their plate and willing to sacrifice the value, the time is now to go for A-Rod in dynasty.

He’s Got a Couple Years

Although for many young fans, Matt Ryan (37) is all they’ve ever known of Atlanta, he’s getting a fresh start in Indianapolis.  And while he isn’t the MVP he once was, there’s still plenty left in the tank.  With no ready option for the Colts under center, Matt Ryan will have a few years to show off his skills.  And as the QB21 (151 overall) in drafts, there are plenty of managers not seeing his full value.  He’s one of the few late quarterbacks with the upside of a QB1.

Good to Go for 3-5 Years

It should come to no surprise that Matthew Stafford (34) will be the winner of this category.  Even if he wasn’t elite, which he is, his Super Bowl win will give him ample time to stick around in one of the league’s best offenses for years to come.  Like previous entries in this article, the value may not be there in redraft, but in dynasty, Matthew Stafford may have the biggest value and upside of any quarterback in the league.

Is It Evan Engram SZN Once Again?

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Is It Evan Engram SZN Once Again?

By Tim Lazenby

When it comes to players that I just unequivocally love in fantasy, there are a few on my list.  Whether it is because of a rookie performance I can’t forget; the fact that they won me a championship; the situation being fantastic; or any number of criteria; there are just some players that I preach their gospel for year in and year out.  Ironically, there was a player who finally fell out of my good graces last season, but with a couple changes, they are right back in the passenger seat as we ride off into fantasy football glory in 2022-23.

Evan Engram is quite polarizing in the fantasy community, and for good reason.  As a rookie, although he was highly anticipated, not many could have predicted just how successful he would be.  While the depth chart looked promising for Engram to have success, he still had to overcome the fact that Eli Manning wasn’t what he once was.  The 2017 New York Football Giants also didn’t have the strongest supporting cast in giving Manning his best shot at 36 years old.  Well, despite the odds, Engram was an absolute beast in his rookie season.

We’ve Seen What He Can Do

And when I say beast, I’m not over-exaggerating.  In case you’ve forgotten or didn’t

know, here’s how he did in his rookie season; even while missing two games:

Targets - 115 (2nd) Receptions - 64 (6th) Yards - 722 (5th) Touchdowns - 6 (7th) 

Fantasy Points - 109.6 (5th)

If you follow the game by position, you know that the tight end is the one that takes the longest to develop, so it’s especially fantastic that he had so much success as a rookie.  But if you really want a dose of reality, here is how he fared at the time among rookie tight ends in the history of the league.  Remember, he missed two games:

Targets - (2nd place) Receptions - (3rd place) Yards - (6th place) Touchdowns - (11th place) 

Fantasy Points - (1st place)

That’s right.  You read correctly.  Evan Engram had the most PPR fantasy points as a rookie in the history of the entire league; although that has since been surpassed by “best tight end prospect ever” Kyle Pitts, but only by 3 points.  All that being said, if you thought you knew how good he was as a rookie, I’ll bet most of you had forgotten just how good he actually was.

It Gets Rough Thereafter

But the problem comes after his rookie season.  In 2018, his targets would be cut nearly in half and his touchdowns would be literally halved.  The following season, the yards went down by over 100 from 2018, which was already terrible compared to his stellar rookie year.  Admittedly, I thought I was really smart in 2018 as I drafted him and OJ Howard back to back picks in my home league only to be stuck with regret for most of the season.  Last year, for the first time, I finally turned my back on my Evan Engram soapbox and focused elsewhere.

Truthfully, I didn’t really pay attention to the lovechild who had deceived me for all of 2020 until it was all over.  To my surprise, Evan Engram almost matched his rookie season in targets and was close in yards.  His one touchdown was quite appalling, but considering the Giants’ quarterbacks only had 12 on the season, it was forgivable.  So in 2021, although I didn’t jump back on the soapbox, which had been torched by the way, I was glad that I wasn’t completely deceived by Evan Engram.   

2021 drafts arrived, but I couldn’t pull the trigger on Engram.  The golden child burned me too often and I wasn’t about to drink the Kool-Aid again.  And thankfully, at least for me, Evan Engram did not repeat 2017 or 2020.  The numbers weren’t the worst in the league, but they weren’t befitting of tight end royalty or even close to TE1 status.

So as I’ve rambled on for far too long now about why he isn’t worth drafting, rostering or trading for, I can’t send him up the river anymore.  And despite having long burned down my Evan Engram soapbox, I’ve built a new one and once again stand proudly singing his praises.  In 2022, Evan Engram’s situation is given new life with the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Let’s talk about why now is the time to move for Evan Engram.

It’s a New Day...Yes it is!

No disrespect intended on the previous quarterback play that Engram has endured, but Trevor Lawrence far surpasses them all.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m not talking about Eli Manning’s entire career here.  I’m talking about just the years he played with Engram.  Moving forward, despite having a dismal season last year, Trevor Lawrence will bounce back in style.  The first generational quarterback prospect in years is certainly worth taking the gamble on rejuvenating Evan Engram somewhat closer to his fantasy prowess.

Doug Pederson also comes to Jacksonville to save the day at coach.  Not only have they gotten rid of the plague that is Urban Meyer, they also gained a Super Bowl winning coach who loves utilizing his tight end.  Even though he’s always been good, if you ask Zach Ertz which years were his most productive in the NFL, he’d have to tell you they were under Pederson.  Pederson has already shown he’s not dependent on one guy to win, all the while displaying his ability to make players shine.  He’s also a guy who loves his players and this will bode well for Engram who is eager for that.

Lastly, the surrounding cast is a big upgrade for Evan Engram now that he’s leaving the Giants for the Jaguars.  Aside from the fact that I’d rather have the Jags’ team overall than the Giants’ if I were playing, the Giants have made great improvements to their receiving weapons.  The Jaguars have also improved, don’t get me wrong, but they need Evan Engram far more than the Giants do.  The recipe is there for Engram to get more opportunities in the passing game where he is rather than where he was.

Final Thoughts

So the final verdict?  I’m not suggesting Evan Engram is going back to 2017, but I am saying he is a strong play to flirt with TE1 status.  He’ll have to overcome the hurdle of Dan Arnold, but I don’t think that’s as big of a mountain as others do.  But the best part is his cost.  

If you’re in redraft, he is basically free.  I’m seeing him go beyond round 15 and sometimes much lower.  And in dynasty, ironically enough, he’s cheaper in some circumstances.  The tight end position is a crap shoot every year once you get past the first tier or two.  So, it’s even harder to find that true gold over fool’s gold.

There is no better value at tight end in 2022 than Evan Engram.