Tim Lazenby

Give Some Love to Brandin Cooks

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Give Some Love to Brandin Cooks

by Tim Lazenby

 

If there’s one thing you can say about sports fans in general, it’s that everyone’s got an opinion.  This is further extrapolated when it comes to fantasy sports.  And if we dive deeper into the realm of dynasty football, I don’t know if there are heavier opinions to be had.  Everyone seems to love or hate any number of players based on any number of reasons, but there are some players who are fated unkindly.  For those chosen few, they seem to be hindered by an opinion that just doesn’t make any sense.  One of these unfortunate few is none other than Houston Texans wide receiver, Brandin Cooks.

 

For whatever reason, Brandin Cooks is not a name that brings excitement and fevered discussions among the dynasty manager’s table.  But I’m here to tell you that we’re being deceived into thinking Cooks isn’t a marquee name.  Fortunately for you, I’m going to let you in on a couple secrets about the former first round selection from Stockton, California.

 

Houston, we have a problem?

Part of this deception may be playing for the basement dwelling Houston Texans, but that’s not as bad as it seems.  Looking into our crystal ball for 2022, this is a team that is quite improved.  Featuring one of the oldest running back rooms in the history of the game last season, the addition of Marlon Mack and newly drafted Damion Pierce should allow Brandin Cooks to sneak in some new routes, as he won’t be the sole offensive piece anymore.  We also can’t overlook Kenyon Green’s ability to give Davis Mills time to make the best throw possible.

 

The arrival of John Metchie is also stirring doubts into the confidence of Brandin Cooks for some, but you should know that Brandin Cooks excels at sharing the field with other talent.  Whether it’s Marques Colston, Willie Snead, Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods or Will Fuller, to name a few, Brandin Cooks has proven time and time again that he doesn’t need to be the sole alpha and will still succeed.

 

And lastly, if you aren’t more confident in the Texans with the newest additions on defense, namely Derek Stingley Jr, you should take another look.  I have no doubt that the Houston offense will not only be on the field more, but with better situations playing out.  If anything, it can’t get much worse.  Last season, the Texans ranked 2nd last against the run and yards allowed.  They also ranked 6th worst in points allowed in 2021.  I’m sure that defense will improve and that’s good for Brandin Cooks’ ability to be on the field doing his thing.

 

A history lesson.  Shall we?

It’s important to know just how consistent Brandin Cooks has been in the NFL.  At only 28 years old, Brandin Cooks has already played for four teams and six starting quarterbacks.  And while receiving from legends Drew Brees and Tom Brady is enough to get anyone excited, it can’t be easy starting over again and again.  I’m sure it’s also frustrating trying to build chemistry with new offensive linemen, coaches, offensive coordinators, and you get the picture.  Despite all that, he’s been fantastic.

 

Here are his fantasy finishes each season in the NFL:

2014 - 24th with 139.3 ppr points (13.9 ppg)

2015 - 13th with 253.6 ppr points (15.8 ppg)

2016 - 10th with 246.3 ppr points (15.4 ppg)

2017 - 15th with 221.2 ppr points (13.8 ppg)

2018 - 13th with 243.2 ppr points (15.2 ppg)

2019 - 62nd with 117.5 ppr points (8.4 ppg)

2020 - 17th with 232.0 ppr points (15.5 ppg)

2021 - 20th with 231.8 ppr points (14.5 ppg)

 

 

Importantly, in 2014 he was a rookie and only played ten games.  We also have to note the terrible 2019 season; and while I don’t have a good excuse for this aberration, everyone has a bad season, so I can excuse this.  If you do the math, like I have, even with that terrible season, he still averages out to 14.06 ppr points per game in his career.  Brandin Cooks has been one of the most consistent wide receivers year in and year out.  

 

In fact, just for fun, here are the players he finished right before or after in each of his years, excluding his rookie year and the dreaded 2019 season:

 

2015:  11th - Demaryius Thomas

12th - Calvin Johnson

13th - Brandin Cooks

14th - Eric Decker

15th - Jeremy Maclin

 

2016:  8th - Doug Baldwin

9th - Davante Adams

10th - Brandin Cooks

11th - Larry Fitzgerald

12 - Michael Crabtree

 

2017:  13th - Golden Tate

14th - Davante Adams

15th - Brandin Cooks

16th - Demaryius Thomas

17th - Mike Evans

 

2018:  11th - Robert Woods

12th - Keenan Allen

13th - Brandin Cooks

14th - TY Hilton

15th - Odell Beckham Jr

 

2020:  15th - Amari Cooper

16th - JuJu Smith-Schuster

17th - Brandin Cooks

18th - Marvin Jones

19th - Robbie Anderson

 

2021:  18th - DJ Moore

19th - CeeDee Lamb

20th - Brandin Cooks

21st - Amon-Ra St. Brown

22nd - Marquise Brown

 

You have him ranked where?

When you look at the stats and see who he is finishing better than or just below, it’s shocking to see how many experts have Brandin Cooks ranked in dynasty.  Here are a few ranks, without showing which sites they are from:

 

Site #1 - 42nd WR

Site #2 - 39th WR

Site #3 - 29th WR

Site #4 - 46th WR

Site #5 - 40th WR

Site #6 - 43rd WR

Site #7 - 31st WR

Site #8 - 35th WR

If we’re honest with ourselves here, it seems unwise to rank Brandin Cooks in the 40s.  The man is only 28 years old and, with the exception of one season, has always been a beast.  Truthfully, I was just as insane once, but I’ve come to see the light.  If I’m being honest, it’s sad that only two sites have him around 30.  If we open our minds a bit, we should come to the conclusion that Brandin Cooks is worth your time and he’s got tons left in the tank.

 

In a world where the dynasty community sees Cooks as nothing more than a WR4, be the savvy manager and give him a better home where he will be appreciated.  Take advantage and bring your dynasty team one step closer to championship gold.

Dynasty Dilemma: Jarvis Landry 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Jarvis Landry 

By Tim Lazenby

 

One of the biggest free agent wide receivers in this off season went unsigned for way too long.  Finally, Jarvis Landry can call the New Orleans Saints his team.  It’s a new day for Landry.  The kid from Louisiana who also played for LSU is coming full circle now and will be donning the black and gold.  But, what can we make of this signing?  Let’s dive a little deeper into discussing the former second round pick that we know as “Juice”.

 

While any situation has to be better than the one he’d been in for four years, you have to wonder if it’s enough to kick start his game back to his Miami days.  And while he’s still got lots of football left, Landry is staring 30 in the face.  Elite wide receivers in their 30s are rare indeed.  And above all, are we really expecting Jameis Winston to revitalize Landry’s game?  Only time will tell, but it’s hard to see the light.

 

Worst Season to Date

While the injury played a giant part in the regression of Landry’s game last season, we can’t simply ignore the poor play that he displayed.  While we can excuse his career lows in things like targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns, there are other problems that are more unsettling.  In 2021, we saw Landry’s lowest receptions per game in his career and with the exception of Mayfield’s rookie year, Jarvis had never had a worse catch percentage.  We can excuse the lack of production with injury, but the lack of efficiency has to be at least somewhat concerning.

 

Not Game Breaking

If there’s one thing that’s missing from Jarvis Landry’s arsenal of talent, it is the lack of game breaking ability.  While you can normally count on Landry to get you something, he’s not one to win you your week.  And while I tend to be the guy who prefers floor to ceiling, I still need some game breakers on my team.  I’m not suggesting he’s lost his game completely, but after such a poor performance last year, it’s hard to overlook the inability to explode on any given week.  Now this is not new to Jarvis Landry, as he’s never been one to put a fantasy team on his back, but it certainly doesn’t help his case moving forward.

 

 

I’d be pretty deceptive to paint such a bleak picture of Jarvis Landry.  Sure, last season wasn’t great.  But, with the exception of Nick Chubb, there weren’t any offensive Browns players that excited any of us in 2021.  As we look forward, it’s important to know that Jarvis Landry is actually quite underrated.  And for any fantasy managers who are sour about drinking the Juice from now on, let me tell you why you should buy.

 

His Resume

While he lacks the Super Bowls, MVPs and WR1 seasons, when I say there aren’t many more reliable options than Landry, I’m not kidding.  In case you didn’t know, Landry’s resume speaks volumes.  Excluding last season, in his career he’s only missed one game.  Also, ignoring 2021 and his rookie season, he’s only missed the pro bowl one time.  In fact, there are only 25 wide receivers in the history of the NFL that have more pro bowls than Landry.  Here are a handful of wide receivers with only one more career pro bowl than Jarvis: Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, to name a few.  Simply put, Landry has been and  will be on the field, making noise.

 

Fort Knox Floor

I think I’ve made it clear that Landry isn’t a game breaker, but when it comes to a floor, he’s one of the best.  Last season was the first in his NFL career where Landry had less than 100 targets.  And in his career he’s netting just shy of six receptions per game.  And if that doesn’t speak volumes, he is heading to play with Jameis Winston.  While some may not love Jameis, you have to appreciate that the man loves to throw the ball.  Unlike Tannehill, Mayfield or the slew of backups that Landry’s had to endure, he’s never had a quarterback who just loves to sling it.  And before everyone chimes in about Michael Thomas and Chris Olave, Thomas hasn’t played in forever and Olave’s never played in the NFL.  Are we really that concerned?

 

Admittedly, I’ve been a bit biased over the years with Jarvis Landry.  When he burst on the scene for Miami back in 2014, he instantly won me over.  I traded him straight up for OBJ; and back then, that was a big deal.  It didn’t hurt that he, as a rookie, landed me a championship that year either.  But, I’ve also been biased on the other side.  Making sure to prioritize Landry each year, it left me wanting as I had valued him too highly.  Always expecting him to soar higher and higher to greatness, it was more of the same or even less each year.

As a real life player, there aren’t too many more respected by teammates, but this is fantasy football we’re talking about.  I, however, truly believe that he will rise to greatness early on in New Orleans.  It’s going to take Michael Thomas time to get back to dominance, if he even can.  We’ve only seen Thomas with the legend, Drew Brees, so one can only guess what we’re going to get with Jameis.  I also feel that Chris Olave will do well right away, but not sensationally.  He needs to get his feet wet at the professional level first.  And with the Saints finally having a deeper receiving core, there will be more opportunities in the passing game, rather than having Kamara run the show exclusively.  Take advantage of early success, while others may be worried about the “muddled” situation.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Death Match: Etienne vs Akers

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Dynasty Death Match: Etienne vs Akers

By Tim Lazenby

In fantasy football, tough choices are part of the job of an everyday manager.  Oftentimes, we struggle with whom to draft, trade or even drop completely.  This is magnified when two players are so close in value.  Choosing between two players like that can ravage the brain and perhaps make or break your season.  In dynasty, it’s even worse than standard because choosing the wrong guy means you are stuck with the mistake for years and potentially losing out on the talent of the better man to win you multiple championships.

Today, let’s dive into a discussion about two young running backs who missed the chance to play for your squad last season.  In a head to head matchup for dynasty glory, only one can survive.  Will it be Los Angeles running back, Cam Akers or Jacksonville Jaguars running back, Travis Etienne?  As they both missed time and Etienne hasn’t had the chance to show what he can do at the professional level, we’re going to look at the college numbers.

Rushing and Receiving Numbers Comparison

Cam Akers Rushing and Receiving

Year G Att Yrds Avg TDs FumL Rec Yrds Avg TDs
2017 13 194 1025 5.3 7 1 16 116 7.3 1
2018 12 161 706 4.4 6 3 23 145 6.3 2
2019 11 231 1144 5.0 14 3 30 225 75 4

Travis Etienne Rushing and Receiving

Year G Att Yrds Avg TDs FumL Rec Yrds Avg TDs
2017 13 107 766 7.2 13 1 5 57 11.4 0
2018 15 204 1658 8.1 24 1 12 78 6.5 2
2019 15 207 1614 7.8 19 2 37 432 11.7 4
2020 12 168 914 5.4 14 4 48 588 12.3 2

Now, we have to take these numbers with a grain of salt.  The statistics in college will not necessarily transition at the professional level, but they also can’t be ignored completely.  It’s important to note that Etienne had one extra year at the college level, so that could be an advantage or disadvantage according to how you view that.

We also have to take into account the programs they played for.  I think it’s obvious that Etienne has the greater numbers by some margin, but he also played for a much better team.  Even without Trevor Lawrence, Etienne still enjoyed success splitting the backfield in his rookie season, going 10-3.  But once Trevor Lawrence came to Clemson, in the three seasons they played together, their record was 39-3.  This level of success certainly helped Etienne’s game.

Cam Akers, on the other hand, was not so fortunate in the school that he played for.  His rookie season was spent with a rookie quarterback and over the three years at Florida State, their record was 18-20.  This meant that Akers would have a much harder time establishing the run or even getting optimal play time on offense.  While we can’t lean on this logic completely when comparing the two, it is still important to look at.

Now that college is out of the way, it’s important to look at the teams they will play for in the NFL.  While Akers is going to someone he is familiar with in Sean McVay, Etienne is making use of Doug Pedeson in his second swing at NFL coaching.  It’s important to see how these two coaches have used their running backs at the professional level.  After all, both Pederson and McVay have coached five seasons in the NFL and both have only coached for one team.  Let’s discuss what that looked like.

Sean McVay’s NFL running back history

McVay came into the NFL extremely blessed with Todd Gurley at his disposal.  In his first season especially, Sean McVay used every ounce that Gurley could give.  His 279 rush attempts were better than the next closest running back at 63; the definition of a workhorse back.  He wasn’t done in the receiving game either, with Gurley leading the team’s running back in targets at 87 and the closest competition had 11.  In fact, Gurley was second on the entire team in targets.

The next two seasons with Gurley leading the way were more of the same, but as time progressed the usage, while still dominant, went down.  You have to question if Sean McVay is leery of using his star running back so heavily moving forward.  The next two seasons were led by none other than Cam Akers and Sony Michel.  It seems likely that Akers would have led last season if not for the injury.  But, unlike Gurley, the usage was not nearly as dominant.  McVay’s lead back almost split the rush attempts and the targets were not even first on the team in the running back room.  Can we expect more of the same moving forward?  Is Cam Akers a workhorse back or a 1A from now on?

Doug Pederson’s NFL running back history

Unlike McVay, Pederson has never shown faith in a typical workhorse back.  Although there is always a starting running back with him, he tends to use a split backfield.  It’s actually amazing that over his NFL tenure, he’s only had one running back as the starter in more than one season in Miles Sanders.  But, when your best option is Ryan Matthews, LaGarrett Blount and Josh Adams, you make do with what you have; no disrespect intended.

Now, can we blame Doug Pederson’s running back choices on his coaching alone or is it partial to the talent available?  Truthfully, moving forward, it will be interesting to see what he does in his fresh start with Jacksonville.  Unlike McVay also, even with a “starter” the rushing share was not great; and with the targets, it’s even worse.  It seemed as though he really liked the idea of a smasher and a receiving threat not being one and the same.

Conclusion

Lastly, we have to talk about the opportunity for each running back on the team for whom they are employed.  I don’t see much in the way of competition for Cam Akers, and now that James Robinson is on the shelf, Travis Etienne’s path to dominance is all but assured.  The teams they play for are also vastly different.  The Rams just won a Super Bowl and have no signs of giving up their championship moving forward.  The Jaguars, on the other hand, finished dead last yet again.  Will McVay ease Cam Akers because the team doesn’t need him as badly?  Will Pederson finally make use of a workhorse back because of the state of his team?

When considering the talent, it is too close to call.  With all the data and arguments, it comes down to the overall team value.  With Akers as a second round pick and the plethora of talent around him, the likelihood of usage is not as high as Etienne.  The Jaguars invested a first round pick in Etienne, making it harder not to showcase him.  Add to that the connection between him and Trevor Lawrence, the choice is easier.  While it has been documented that Trevor Lawrence wasn’t instrumental in bringing Travis Etienne to the Jaguars, now that he’s there I see the cornerstone quarterback wanting to make use of his college teammate as much as possible.

If you are drafting or trading for either, both are good choices.  But in the deathmatch, there is only one winner:

Travis Etienne

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Shocking Statements – The Jets Can Make The Playoffs

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Shocking Statements - The Jets Can Make The Playoffs

By Tim Lazenby

“What??” “Are you a Jets fan?”, “Do you actually watch football?” “Are you seeking professional help?”  I’m sure there are tons of these types of questions upon reading the title of the article.  After all, there aren’t too many franchises who have been basement dwellers like the Jets have been as of late.  But before you scold me or flat out stop reading, I swear there are points in my favor to support such a bold claim.  I promise you there are reasons for optimism when cheering for the Gang Green.

Draft Day

It’s hard to name a team with a better 2022 draft than the New York Jets.  It doesn’t hurt, mind you, that they had three first round picks.  But even with such a good chance at success, Joe Douglas hit it out of the park even better than most could have imagined.

With the first pick, Sauce Gardiner fell to them at number four.  Derek Stingley, who was the first cornerback off the board is elite, make no mistake, but for me Gardiner is the better player.  In a bold statement, I’d be tempted to take him first overall in the 2022 draft.  His numbers are elite, but when you consider the man never allowed a touchdown in his entire college career, that’s someone to get excited about.

They also grabbed Garrett Wilson, who many considered the best wide receiver in a loaded wide receiver class.  I don’t need to tell you how good he is.  Even more crazy is edge rusher Jermaine falling to them at 26th overall.  Simply criminal.  And let’s not forget the Jets snatched up the best running back by a country mile in this year’s draft in Breece Hall.  While Michael Carter is a good option on the ground, Hall is a huge upgrade and should inspire fear in the opposition.  The rest of the draft was also very underrated.  

Notably, offensive lineman Max Mitchell, despite going in the fourth round, was one of the best tackles in the draft.  Addressing so many needs that the Jets have, this team is the strongest one we’ve seen in over a decade.  It’s great to have so many high picks, but even greater when they hit so well.

Shifts in the AFC

Logic is a funny thing.  The AFC got way better for so many teams.  For some, logic dictates that this should make things way harder for the Jets to succeed but I think that form of logic is flawed.  The NFL is a division based league, meaning you have to content among your own division above all for success.

So if you think about it, so many of the wins that the Chiefs got last season will not be repeated so easily.  Furthermore, the AFC West is now the most competitive division in the entire league.  This means that every game is truly up for grabs.  Each of the four teams can beat each other on any given night.  There will be less dominant teams for many divisions that are so much more competitive

Let’s not forget that many teams in the playoffs may not retain their level of success.  I see the Patriots, Steelers, Raiders and even Chiefs having a more difficult time playing past 17 games, so a shift is not out of the question.  A nine win Steelers team also made the playoffs last year, so it’s even more possible for the Jets to squeak in there.  

Continued development

After drafting Sam Darnold second overall, the Jets only gave him two years to succeed before shipping him off.  I don’t see them being as impatient with Zach Wilson.  A second overall investment is no easy thing to look past.  I truly believe that Joe Douglas is all in on Zach Wilson and this can be supported firstly by such a draft.

But notably, although Wilson’s lack of success was obvious, the reasons are also just as obvious.  The Jets employed five starting running backs last season, eight wide receivers and five tight ends.  Of those personnel, only Braxton Berrios and Ty Johnson played a full season.  Of the actual “starting” running back, wide receiver and tight end, many games were missed and not many were missed together.  Success is difficult without your best players on the field consistently.

It isn’t all doom and gloom though, at the end of the season, the offensive line was ranked 11th by PFF.  The Jets also had the youngest team in the entire NFL last season, so a year of bumps and bruises goes a long way into seasoning talent to what it will eventually be.  Moving forward, I just don’t see the level of failure repeating itself.

Conclusion

While it’s insane to think the Jets are contenders based off of one good draft, it’s not out of the question to consider the impact these studs will have on the team.  Sure, the Bills will win the division and Miami made its own moves to strengthen itself.  But it won’t be the Jets being taken apart like a dog on a three legged cat.  The same old Jets are simply not the same old Jets.  Of their losses last year, five of them were by a touchdown or less and the losses to Carolina, Atlanta should be wins this year.

I’m not crazy, believe me.  The Jets will not have an easy road to the playoffs, but 

it’s not as crazy as you may think that they could get there.  Crazier things have happened, right?

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Dilemma: Kyler Murray 

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Dynasty Dilemmas: Kyler Murray 

By Tim Lazenby

 

The NFL off season continues and so do dynasty managers in their quest to improve their teams to championship form.  With all the hype of the rookie draft, we can’t forget the established veterans that can be added or released from our squads if the price is right.  While there are many that cause questions of worth, today we’ll focus on Arizona Cardinals quarterback, Kyler Murray.

 

Since coming into the league, Kyler Murray has been a fantasy beast.  And while there are many aspects to his game that make him viable as your dynasty starter, not everything is sunshine and roses.  As we’ll discuss, recent uncertainty has rendered him as one to potentially be leery of.  The question of long term value has to be on the forefront when we are talking about dynasty fantasy football after all.

Murray vs Management

It’s no secret that the relationship between Kyler Murray and the management of the Arizona Cardinals hasn’t been ideal.  It’s not known how long it’s been sour, but ever since the Cardinals were ousted from the playoffs last season, it’s been rocky for sure.  Recently, more than one past Arizona player has voiced support for Murray, stating that the Cardinals do not place an emphasis on keeping their players happy.  You have to wonder if his value will remain if things get worse or the scenery changes.

Potential Ceiling

No one can deny the talent of Kyler Murray.  We all know he can rush and the game breaking ability that he has is a rarity among his position.  But have we seen the best that he can do?  If you look at his passing numbers, it’s surprising that he hasn’t improved much.  And the rushing numbers had to go down after his sophomore season.  We can blame the lack of depth in his rookie season, but the last two seasons, the weapons have been there.  If this is the best, should we sell at top value?

At only 24 years old, the former first overall pick has already had success that many deeply tenured veterans have not seen.  So far, even despite missing two games last season, he’s never finished outside the top ten among quarterbacks in fantasy.  With so much going for him, do you really want someone else to have him on their team?  It’s not often that a top fight option is available for a discount.

Elite Rushing

Among quarterbacks there aren’t many at Kyler Murray’s level with footwork.  In fact, since his rookie season, Kyler Murray ranks second among all quarterbacks in rush attempts, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.  It’s also amazing to know that just two years ago, he had the third most rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks of all time.  It also seems to me that he is becoming wiser in when to rush and when to throw.

Newest Additions

Make no mistake: the Cardinals did pretty well in the draft.  Although general manager Steve Keim didn’t break the headlines with his draft, he addressed weak points in the roster.  With his first pick, he grabbed the best tight end available, to support an aging Zach Ertz.  He also grabbed two defensive ends right after to keep Murray on the field, and two guards later to protect him.  And let’s not forget that he surprisingly snatched Marquise Brown out from under the Ravens.  I am a Christian Kirk truther, to be sure, but I have to admit that Marquise Brown is a big upgrade here.  Murray now has two field stretchers and two fantastic tight ends to choose from.

 

It’s been quite an off season for Kyler Murray.  His social media shenanigans have been unsettling for many, but we have to remember that this is a guy at the top of his game trying to claim what’s his.  Although I may not agree completely with his tactics, they aren’t unheard of and I have no real claim to an opinion as I’m just a schlub sitting here behind a computer.

The age is prime, the talent is unreal and the weapons are good.  If anyone in your league is opening the vault for Murray and asking for less than his asking price, now’s the time.  Opportunities like this don’t present themselves very often.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @NFLazenby

Dynasty Death Match : Allen vs Herbert

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Dynasty Death Match : Allen vs Herbert

By Tim Lazenby

 

The consensus among experts is that Josh Allen is the QB1 in dynasty.  This statement is definitely not unfounded, as we’ll discuss.  When looking at contenders for the crown of top quarterback in dynasty, there are a few.  Many would put Patrick Mahomes right at the top.  Other names like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and even Joe Burrow have popped up.  But, I think the biggest contender is none other than Justin Herbert.

Since Justin Herbert only has two seasons in the National Football League, let’s take a moment to break down the first two seasons for Justin Herbert and his top competition, Josh Allen, as passers.  

 

Passing Numbers Comparison

Josh Allen

Year Age GS W/L/T Att Comp Yrds TDs Int TD% Comp% 1D Long Y/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk
2018 22 11 5-6-0 320 169 2074 10 12 3.1 52.8 89 75 6.5 12.3 172.8 67.9 28
2019 23 16 10-6-0 461 271 3089 20 9 4.3 58.8 146 53 6.7 11.4 193.1 85.3 38

 

 

Justin Herbert

Year Age GS W/L/T Att Comp Yrds TDs Int TD% Comp% 1D Long Y/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk
2020 22 15 6-9-0 595 396 4336 31 10 5.2 66.6 216 72 7.3 10.9 289.1 98.3 32
2021 23 17 9-8-0 672 443 5014 38 15 5.7 65.9 256 72 7.5 11.3 294.9 97.7 31

 

When it comes to prowess in the passing game, although Allen has greatly improved, he wasn’t even close to the same level in his first two seasons as Justin Herbert was in his.  Even now, Allen’s passing game, whether it be from the system or his talent itself, doesn’t approach the numbers that Justin Herbert has put out.  I’d still take Josh Allen over the vast majority of the league as a passer, but he’s quite a distance away from Herbert, at least by the numbers.

Let’s not forget about the running game for both Allen and Herbert though.  We all know that a rushing quarterback is much more valuable in fantasy than in real life.  It’s a talent that can’t be ignored when considering dynasty QB1 status.  Here are the stats for each as a rookie and sophomore.

 

Rushing Numbers Comparison

Josh Allen

Year

 Age GS Rush Yrds TDs 1D Long Yrds/A Yrds/G Avg/G YAC Fumb Lost
2018 22 11 89 631 8 41 45 7.1 52.6 7.4 280 6
2019 23 16 109 510 9 42 36 4.7 319 6.8 243 10

Justin Herbert

Year Age GS Rush Yrds TDs 1D Long Yrds/A Yrds/G Avg/G YAC Fumb Lost
2020 22 15 55 234 5 20 31 4.3 15.6 3.7 57 5
2021 23 17 63 302 3 28 36 4.8 17.8 3.7 48 1

 

 

When it comes to the running game, it’s not even close.  Josh Allen is far superior in this regard.  While he’s not at the level of Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray or even Jalen Hurts, he rules supreme among the duo we’re talking about and is still a top option in the entire NFL in this regard.  It is important to note, however, that the rushing game of Justin Herbert is underrated and respectable: quite in the realm of what you look for in that elite quarterback when paired with their passing game.

Conclusion

It’s a tale of two very different entrances into the NFL.  Josh Allen’s beginning was very difficult.  With Kelvin Benjamin, as a journeyman at that point, and an aging LeSean McCoy as the best options, you can see why he struggled out of the gate.  The defense also ranked in the middle of the pack, often leaving Allen without his best shot at success.  His continued improvement is fantastic, and even though I’m only highlighting his first two seasons, I don’t need to tell you how good he’s become.  The current team surrounding him is also very good.  The Buffalo Bills don’t have many holes and they should win their division; clearing the way for another year of fantasy success for Josh Allen.  I’m sure we can expect similar production from Allen, but that’s the problem.  I don’t see things getting any better.

For the first time in 16 years, someone other than Philip Rivers was QB for the Chargers and Herbert was better than most predicted, even behind the league’s worst offensive line.  In his first two seasons, Herbert was sensational and he’s only gotten better.  He didn’t need a couple years to develop.  He’s simply always been amazing and he’s only getting better.  Coupled with the unbelievable off season that Tom Telesco has given to the Chargers, I can’t see Herbert’s stock doing anything else but skyrocket.  The offensive weapons have quietly improved, but the defense is the most helpful part to aid in Herbert’s continued success.  If the Chargers don’t finish as the league’s best defense it’d be surprising, but even if they don’t, they are light years better.  This will keep Herbert on the field more, hence scoring more fantasy points than ever before.

In today’s NFL, dual threat quarterbacks are all the rage, but some are just so good that they don’t need to rely on it.  Take the discount now and bank on Justin Herbert as dynasty’s QB1 moving forward.

 

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