Steve Uetz

Dynasty Dilemma: Jalen Hurts

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Dynasty Dilemma: Jalen Hurts

By Steve Uetz

Seeking out the Konami Code is a game-winning recipe but when will it be game over?

Welcome to the Jalen Hurts Dynasty Dilemma!

In the video game world, the Konami Code is a well-known series of button combinations that when pressed correctly will bring the player certain cheat codes to help them succeed in their game of choice. In the fantasy football world, a popular moniker involving the Konami Code idea applies to certain quarterbacks who separate themselves apart due to their rushing ability. It is a cheat code because all the quarterbacks hold a standard floor of passing statistics but the mobile QBs hold higher ceiling potential due to their rushing ability. The next great Konami Code QB is Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles. If you had the foresight to hedge on this being a possibility going into last season as I did, then you are sitting pretty in your dynasty leagues.

In the short term, Hurts is a phenomenal fantasy asset. However since dynasty is a unique balance of weighing short-term value with long-term value; will Hurts remain a strong option for the long haul? Before we dig into the 2022 season and expectations, let us first be reminded of how Jalen Hurts arrived at this moment in time.

Jalen Hurts’ career has been truly fascinating to this point. In college he was a dynamic QB for the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide: the physical traits were often on display, but decision-making was a noticeable flaw. A turning point in his college career was his benching in the National Championship game in which Tua Tagovailoa replaced him and eventually led the team to win the title.

The following season Hurts transferred to the University of Oklahoma and became the next great QB under Lincoln Riley’s supervision. He became the Heisman Trophy runner-up (to LSU’s Joe Burrow) as he achieved the Oklahoma single-season record for rushing yards and points scored by a QB.

In the 2020 NFL draft, he was drafted in the 2nd round (53rd overall) to back up and eventually replace the Philadelphia Eagles’ franchise quarterback, Carson Wentz. I voiced confusion and displeasure with the selection because I was a true Carson Wentz apologist at the time. I ultimately realized that with Wentz’s injury history becoming extensive, it was wise to have a dynamic QB waiting in the wings if anything were to happen to Wentz.

Hurts ended up replacing Wentz in the back end of the season and by season’s end their Head Coach, Doug Pederson was fired. Hurts would enter his second season as the starter with rookie Head Coach Nick Sirianni. Hurts finished the 2021 season with an 8-7 record; a team total of 9-8, while just barely making the playoffs.

Jalen Hurts demonstrated tremendous leadership and was statistically sound; he took positive steps in becoming the Eagles hopeful franchise quarterback. Despite an overall successful sophomore season campaign, he still struggled with deep passing accuracy. The question of if Hurts can become an improved deep ball passer will be a major factor for his further development as a professional and could certainly determine his prowess as a long-term dynasty asset.

Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability provided not only a tremendous ceiling for fantasy output but also a reliable floor week to week. In his 2nd season, Hurts finished first in the NFL for QBs in rushing attempts (139), yards (784), and TDs (10). He appeared in15 games and finished as the QB9 overall while ranking 6th in points per game.

Quick context check; before Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson went on IR to close out the season he was on pace to league the rushing attempts and yards. In 12 games; one of which he left early after only 2 rushing attempts for 5 yards, Jackson totaled 134 attempts for 767 yards.

The primary point remains that Hurts demonstrated that he was an elite rushing QB in 2021 and in the 4 games he started and one half of a game he started the 2nd half taking over for a struggling Carson Wentz. In 2020, once he took over the job; Hurts totaled 51 rushing attempts for 301 yards and 3 TDs.

Furthermore, the Eagles have an enormously improved offensive core. Hurts enters another season with Head Coach Sirianni who took several to get a substantial grip on the Eagles offense and what it is capable of. Another year with the athletic Tight End Dallas Goedert, sophomore weapons DeVonta Smith and Kenneth Gainwell, and now the cherry on top; wide receiver superstar A.J. Brown! A.J. Brown was acquired and immediately given a contract extension during the 2022 NFL draft in a trade with the Tennessee Titans for the 18th overall pick.

The importance of Brown’s presence in the Philadelphia offense simply cannot be understated. We know what Brown is and what he will bring; Brown will bring a big body that can be utilized in short, mid, deep, and red zone passing attempts. He will also make better defensive back matchups available for WR DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert. The improved passing attack trio of Brown, Smith, and Goedert will do wonders for a passing attack that recently relied on Quez Watkins and Jalen Reagor in a variety of ways. Brown will not only help Hurts passing efficiency but will give better quality deep ball passing attempts to Watkins and Reagor; who will be best utilized as ancillary weapons.

I can visualize a wide path in which Hurts is able to improve both as a passer but also as a decision maker beyond the typical ‘one read and run’ type of offense. Brown unlocks many possibilities for the Eagles and potential game plans. Hurts has now been officially surrounded by fantastic options; it is now all on him to take the Eagles offense to the next level.

If you are skeptical about Hurts' ability to be a franchise quarterback, improve in his passing ability or decision-making like some members of the fan base and Philadelphia sports media have been then right now in this moment is the ultimate sell-high opportunity. The allure of a young, rushing specialist QB, with wildly improved offensive weapons, will never be higher. Hurts is a hot commodity, right now at least.

I do find the skepticism to be fair to a certain degree. NFL teams should hold high standards to their franchise QBs and if substantial results don’t come quickly, then teams can move on. One of those teams could be the Philadelphia Eagles. For his career Hurts has a completion percentage of 59% with a 9-10 overall W/L record as a starter. His 61% completion percentage in 2021 was ranked 28th among qualifying QBs.

With or without Hurts, General Manager Howie Roseman has done a beautiful job adding draft capital, quality free agents, and draft selections on both sides of the ball in the last two seasons. The Eagles currently hold strong capital in the next two drafts; two first-round picks in 2023 and in 2024 in addition to the first-round pick they also hold two second-round picks.  Howie Roseman has shown to be one of the most aggressive draft day traders in the league; with the strong QB class in 2023, nothing would surprise me if the Eagles looked to make a splash if Hurts doesn’t play to expectation.

If Hurts struggles to develop as a well-rounded quarterback not only could the Eagles go in a different direction at the position but other potential suitors around the league could as well. This would be the total pessimistic perspective but would be a literal nightmare for your dynasty rosters.

There is no doubt about the fact that Hurts has enormous upside with his rushing ability and improved offensive arsenal. However, legitimate questions remain about his professional development and potential career longevity.

Overall, I find that I’m optimistic that the pros outweigh the cons as he has steadily improved with each phase of his ever-adjusting career, including leading the Eagles to the post-season in 2021. Furthermore, I think it is clear the Eagles have put a lot of trust into Hurts as they have put him in the best position to succeed as possible with the A.J. Brown acquisition; it gives me an astounding vote of confidence that the team has with him.

I believe Hurts takes another step forward in his development as he will soon seek a 2nd contract with the Eagles; which of course will give the Eagles tremendous flexibility and outstanding possibilities to build around Hurts using their upcoming draft capital. Jalen Hurts remains a premier Konami Code QB to buy or hold in your dynasty leagues! Get the cheat code and win!

 

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!

Dynasty Dilemma: Zach Ertz

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Dynasty Dilemma: Zach Ertz

By Steve Uetz

 

As you seek a Championship in your dynasty league, a question to ask is this:

Is the short-term success with an aging asset worth the potential temporary sacrifice of future talent?

Welcome to the Dynasty Dilemma of Zach Ertz

I find Tight Ends to be a notoriously scarce position group for fantasy football. Since talented youth is often the priority in dynasty leagues, I find myself questioning the proper course of action with 31-year-old TE Zach Ertz. With Ertz’s resurgence in Arizona, I have been asking myself these questions: Is Zach Ertz an exception to the rule of prioritizing youth? Is taking the chance on an older asset worth the potential price of acquisition?

Zach Ertz’s dynasty dilemma began in his final games as a Philadelphia Eagle. Leading into the 2021 season it was clear that he and Eagles were not on the same page regarding a potential contract extension. Philadelphia had expressed their appreciation of Ertz but continued to seek a team-friendly deal for his services.

After a very up and down first six games of the 2021 season, Ertz was surprisingly traded to the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals were seeking to fill the void left by TE Maxx Williams after he unfortunately suffered a season-ending knee injury. Ertz suddenly became fantasy relevant again. In the 11 games he played with the Cardinals, he averaged nearly 7.5 targets and 5 receptions per game totaling 56 catches for 574 yards and 3 TDs.

What is the proper course of action with Zach Ertz? Is he an asset to BUY, SELL, or HOLD?

 

 

The Dynasty Dilemma with Zach Ertz is very similar to that of RB James Conner due to the current state of the Arizona Cardinals organization. As stated in Conner’s dynasty dilemma: in the 2021 season, the Arizona Cardinals reached the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Due to the past seasons’ success and emergence of franchise QB Kyler Murray, Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury and General Manager Steve Keim were given contract extensions through the 2027 season. Ertz currently finds himself with a projected increased opportunity for targets.

RB Chase Edmonds and WR Christian Kirk are now out of town and AJ Green remains unsigned. The pass catching core of the Arizona Cardinals currently looks like this: DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, and Antoine Wesley.

Ertz’s revival in the desert earned him the type of contract that he was seeking in Philadelphia. Ertz was given a 3 year - $31 million deal with $14 million guaranteed. Ertz holds legitimate appeal for the 2022 season being a part of Arizona’s fantasy-friendly offense. He quickly became a reliable target for Kyler Murray on a team that hasn’t had a dependable TE option in a very long time. For the 2022 season he should be considered a back end TE1 due to the unique blend of increased projected opportunity and scarcity at the TE position.

 

 

It is true that fantasy value can be had with aging veterans like Ertz, but the priority in dynasty leagues should be youth. I believe there was a fair reason the Eagles were unwilling to pay Ertz anything more than a team-friendly contract. He simply did not look like the same player in his final season and a half in Philadelphia. While he still contributed to the offense, albeit inconsistently; he didn’t look near as quick or as explosive as he did in his early seasons and Pro Bowl awarded seasons (2017-2019), especially compared to fellow TE Dallas Goedert.

At this point of his career Ertz is most appealing to a very specific type of dynasty team. Strong TE-needy contending teams is where he needs to be rostered. There is appeal to sell since he is most useful to a smaller percentage of teams across your dynasty league. If you are a current Ertz holder and that above criteria doesn’t apply to you; then you should absolutely be willing and looking to sell him to a team that does fit that criteria. It is perfect; even if that strong contending team already has a decent TE, Ertz can still be dangled out for bait as a solid depth piece.

 

There is a case to be made where he is still a valuable hold initially for middling to borderline contending teams where TE depth is needed. This is a temporary hold situation to see where you stand across your league after the first few weeks. In this specific instance, let’s say your team is struggling to earn wins, Ertz should be moved to a contending hopeful. However, if your team is earning wins and you are appearing to be an outside contender after all; I’d find holding to be appropriate.

Ultimately, it would be optimal to trade Ertz away for whatever draft capital you can prior to your dynasty leagues’ rookie draft due to the reasons I laid out above. Or if you start the season with Ertz, it would be opportunistic to move him immediately if and after he pumps out a big game early in the season.

I think a reasonable return for Ertz would be a 3rd round rookie pick plus a young depth piece at a position of need. A strong contending team seeking a championship would benefit from Ertz’s opportunity in the fantasy-friendly Cardinals offense; giving up a 3rd round rookie and a young player would be worth it for both sides.

I do believe there is legitimate reason to be optimistic with Ertz in 2022, however I fear the optimism will be through a shorter-term lens rather than a longer-term lens. Looking through the longer-term lens is where I prefer to consider roster management action. Therefore, he ultimately is a SELL as the short-term value is more palpable compared to the long-term.

 

 

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!

Dynasty Dilemma: James Conner

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Dynasty Dilemma: James Conner

By Steve Uetz

 

James Conner may be one of the single easiest NFL players to root for. He is a truly inspiring individual who especially stands out due to his extraordinary personal journey fighting a cancer diagnosis through his college years while still being a very productive player in the NFL. James Conner is now the top RB in the fantasy-friendly Arizona Cardinals offense but does exhibit a unique Dynasty Dilemma despite churning out an impressive 2021 campaign.

 

In the 2021 season, the Arizona Cardinals reached the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Due to the past seasons’ success and emergence of franchise QB Kyler Murray, Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury and General Manager Steve Keim were given contract extensions through the 2027 season. Amid this wave of positivity and stability surging through the Cardinals organization, Conner now stands alone at the top of the RB depth chart as he severely out-performed his initial 1-year “prove it” deal.

In the 2021 season Conner did play in a mostly part-time role but re-emerged as a fantasy football darling. Conner had a tremendous return on investment in single season leagues as he finished as an RB1 on the season, totaling 1,127 yards from scrimmage. Where he struggled in rushing efficiency, he made up for it with TDs and receiving work. He totaled 752 rushing yards on 202 rushing attempts with 15 TDs and caught 37 of 39 targets for 375 receiving yards and 3 TDs. He totaled a sub 50% snap share in 8 of his 15 games played. In the weeks that Chase Edmonds spent on IR (weeks 9-15), Conner averaged 78.5% snap share and averaged nearly 23 fantasy points per game.

Conner originally was slotted in to replace veteran RB Kenyan Drake as he was figured to serve a part-time role in the offense mixing in with Chase Edmonds. Now former teammate, Chase Edmonds hit the free agency market after the 2021 season and signed with the Miami Dolphins on a two-year deal. Conner, who was also set to hit the free agent market after the 2021 season returned to the Cardinals on a three-year deal! Sitting at the top of the depth chart with very little competition behind him (pre-2022 NFL draft), Conner enters the 2022 season as a high end RB2 option.

 

(Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

 

The Dynasty Dilemma with James Conner boils down to two main factors for me. The primary hesitation I have with Conner from the dynasty perspective is his age which could create potential longevity concerns. The secondary hesitation is the reality of the Cardinals roster and lack of depth at the RB position.

Conner will enter the 2022 season at 27 years old, which doesn’t exactly worry me for the short-term and more specifically for this upcoming season. However, the worry comes from what his role in the NFL will look like 2-3 years from now. As I debate action regarding dynasty roster management, my decisions are ultimately made through the lens of a three-year time frame. It is important to weigh the cost-benefit of what is best for your roster over that time. This is especially important if you are rebuilding or are a middling team looking to gain an edge to compete.

Conner’s impressive 2021 season presents a great opportunity to sell high. Outside of the games where he “had the keys to the car” with Edmonds on IR, the swell of TDs made his weeks’, which was phenomenal but difficult to ultimately rely on. Congratulations if you rode the Conner TD wave, it certainly was gnarly.

Right now, a player like Conner is most appealing to a purely contending team. Not just because of his age, but also because of the reality of the Cardinals roster as they currently sit very thin at the running back position behind Conner. I would not be surprised if the Cardinals prioritize the RB position in the 2022 NFL draft (or especially in the 2023 draft). This of course is a big if but depending on which RB they draft and when said RB is drafted, Conner’s three-year window of success (for your dynasty roster) could diminish even sooner than I am already skeptical of. I hope I am wrong because as I stated before he is a guy I will perpetually be rooting for.

 

The potential acquisition of James Conner forces a fantasy GM to be self-aware and question the true quality of their roster. The original question to answer is “How to decipher the decision of prioritizing short-term vs long-term roster optimization?” Answer: James Conner is essentially an optimal short-term buy while being a risky long-term option.

Conner is absolutely a buy for strong contending rosters that are primarily aiming to win in the current season. The cost benefit could likely pay off for that solid contending team where it wouldn’t pay off for a middling team with potential to contend and especially not a rebuilding roster since I struggle to see legitimate long-term value.

Realistically across an average 12-team dynasty league, there may only be 3-4 legitimate strong contending teams which would leave 8-9 teams as middling contenders or rebuilding rosters. Therefore, he ultimately is a SELL as the long-term risk is too great to acquire without the intention of winning it all in 2022.

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!

Dynasty Dilemma: Christian Kirk

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Dynasty Dilemma: Christian Kirk

By Steve Uetz

 

Always the bridesmaid, never the bride: Welcome to Christian Kirk’s Dynasty Dilemma

Christian Kirk made a splash in free agency as he was signed to the Jacksonville Jaguars; the first of many eyebrow raising signings made by the Jaguars new General Manager Trent Baalke. Kirk was gifted with a four-year $72 million contract, with $37 million guaranteed. Kirk at 25 years old, is entering his 5th season after spending the first leg of his career with the Arizona Cardinals in a mostly ancillary role.

As a college prospect he profiled to be an NFL star but failed to live up to the expectations that his college career and 2nd round draft capitol suggested. The Cardinals mightily struggled in Kirk’s rookie season under short-tenured head coach Steve Wilks and QB bust Josh Rosen. His ability remained untapped as he never led the Cardinals in receptions, always playing in a supporting role to elite veteran teammates like Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins. It wasn’t until the 2021 season where his potential was finally consistently on display as the season came to its conclusion.

Christian Kirk’s dynasty dilemma is centered around the potential offensive role in his new environment. He was paid like a superstar as he is currently earning top-10 WR money, but for fantasy what should concern us the most is opportunities through touches/targets, and the quality of such opportunities. Big money does not always equal big opportunity; see Kenny Golladay from 2021. Will Trevor Lawrence and new head coach Doug Pederson bring out the best in Kirk? Or will Kirk continue to be the bridesmaid and never the bride.

 

 

National disgrace Urban Meyer was unceremoniously fired in the middle of the 2021 season, wasting Trevor Lawrence’s rookie year development. The Jaguars are at the start of a new and improved era already as they recently hired Super Bowl winning Head Coach Doug Pederson; a coach who I believe was the perfect hire to jumpstart the development of the young franchise QB.

Among the obvious offensive struggles in 2021 seasons, the Jaguars finished 12th in pass attempts. Being in a top half passing offense across the league is a positive feature for any pass-catching weapon such as Christian Kirk. The Jaguars will most likely once again be a defensively struggling team in 2022, giving the potential of inflated pass attempts and opportunities to Kirk and fellow pass-catchers.

With the departure of D.J. Chark, Kirk is expected to occupy at least the WR2 role for the projected pass-heavy offense. The quality of those opportunities for the pass-catchers are trending up as Doug Pederson has been mostly successful in getting the most of his quarterbacks throughout his coaching career. Bottomline, opportunity and quality of opportunities are on the rise.

 

 

 

With all the recent positive momentum channeling through the Jaguars organization, Kirk is holding unique cautious optimism for seasons to come. Considering the hopefulness of an improved Jaguars offense and how strongly Kirk ended the 2021 season, this presents an advantageous moment to sell.

Kirk finished his 2021 season with career bests in receptions (77), receiving yards (982), yards per target (9.53), and WR fantasy ranking (28th Standard and 26th PPR). Kirk took advantage of his opportunity down the stretch as veteran WR stud DeAndre Hopkins missed 7 total games, including the final four weeks when Kirk had his best four-game stretch. In the fantasy playoffs (weeks 15-17) Kirk was a viable flex play as he had three consecutive games with 9 or more targets. Despite the success, I think the biggest factor in this triumph was DeAndre Hopkins’ absence.

The 2021 season was a career first that Kirk finished as a WR3 and played a full season. Over his first three seasons his final WR rank was as a WR5 in 2018 (STD 57, PPR 58), WR4 in 2019 (STD 45, PPR 38), and WR5 in 2020 (STD 51, PPR 52) while never playing a full season; he averaged missing 3 games per season over that stretch.

 

Verdict

Ultimately, the solution of how to handle the dynasty dilemma of Christian Kirk would be to either sell or hold, with a preference to sell.

I do think holding is reasonable for all roster types since there is enough optimism to remain patient in anticipation of how the Doug Pederson era kicks off. Kirk, at 25 years old is in his prime and holds Flex appeal but would be best implemented as an injury or bye week replacement which is universally needed.

Rebuilding Sell: If you have Kirk rostered on a rebuilding team, I would be looking to sell with the allure of the unknowns of an Urban Meyer-less Jaguars offense. I would suggest offering Kirk to a WR needy contending team for future draft capitol.

Contending Sell: If you have Kirk rostered on a contending team, I would be primarily looking to sell to upgrade at the WR position. In an attempt to flip Kirk, I would suggest offering Christian Kirk with a 2nd round rookie pick for a WR like Chase Claypool or Allen Robinson with a 3rd round rookie pick.

My assessment of Kirk is that he holds WR4 value, has a WR3 ceiling, and with only an outlier’s narrow path could he leapfrog into WR2 territory. Overall, I consider Kirk to be an expendable asset among the excess of viable WRs options who hold and have demonstrated higher upside across the fantasy football landscape. Kirk remains the bridesmaid.

 

 

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!

Dynasty Dilemma: Amari Cooper

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Dynasty Dilemma: Amari Cooper

By Steve Uetz

 

Where does talent and opportunity intersect for the purpose of fantasy football success? This is a question I have recently been asking myself regarding a Wide Receiver I have admired for a long time: Amari Cooper.

Amari Cooper is now a Cleveland Brown; a bit jarring, isn’t it? At first, it certainly was. The news of the trade between Dallas and Cleveland caught the football world by surprise, but especially because of the compensation included in the deal. Dallas shipped Cooper away for Cleveland’s 5th round pick along with a 6th round pick swap between the teams.

This figured to be a purely financial decision since Cooper was due 20 million dollars on March 20; the Browns got an absolute steal in their acquisition of Cooper. The Browns were in desperate need of a big-time WR after they released Odell Beckham Jr. in the middle of the 2021 season.

Two days after the Browns traded for Cooper, something interesting happened. Cleveland released veteran WR Jarvis Landry, paving the way for Cooper to fall into a commanding opportunity for a promising target share in the Browns passing game.

Then six days after the Cooper trade, the BIG news came! The Cleveland Browns traded for Deshaun Watson, the most prestigious and unfortunately controversial QB on the market. The bombshell trade happened just 24 hours after Baker Mayfield requested a trade after the Browns had made it clear that they were pursuing Watson.

My initial fear of Cooper losing out on quality of touches for an increased offensive target share had been put to rest overnight. This is literally the best-case scenario for Amari Cooper’s fantasy outlook. There is only one big IF hanging in the balance which brings an uneasy predicament for Cooper’s outlook. Just because Watson was successfully traded and received a hefty contract doesn’t mean that the NFL won’t punish him under the personal conduct policy. The leagues’ investigation of Watson remains ongoing.

What will that mean for Cooper’s fantasy outlook in 2022 and beyond? The intersection of Cooper’s talent and opportunity has found a new peak but questions of Watson’s availability remain; hence the dynasty dilemma.

 

 

Reasons to BUY

Amari Cooper is in the prime of his career, he will be 28 years old at the start of the 2022 season as he enters his 8th season. Over his career, he has reached 100+ targets in 6 of 7 seasons and totaled 1000+ receiving yards in 5 of 7 seasons.

The last time we saw Cooper’s new quarterback Deshaun Watson play he had three straight seasons of being a top 5 QB. In the 2020 season, Watson supported two top tier fantasy viable WRs; Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks. Fuller was well on his way to having a WR1 season before he was suspended for PEDs which caused him to miss the final five games of that season. Fellow teammate Brandin Cooks finished as a high-end WR2.

Cooper will remain the prototypical X receiver and the clear cut #1 pass-catching option in the Cleveland passing game. All these combined factors indicate that he is certainly a worthy WR target for 2022 and beyond.

 

 

Reasons to SELL

The primary scenario where I would find it to be the most advantageous to sell is if you have him rostered on a rebuilding team and are in position to flip him for max value to a contending team. Let the contending team deal with the potential Watson headache and have your team focus on the players of tomorrow.

Furthermore, I think there is a real possibility that Deshaun Watson could face punishment under the NFL’s personal conduct policy; I could imagine anywhere from 6 games to a full season. Of course, this would delay the likelihood of Cooper’s ascension to fantasy stardom. He would revert to my original outlook assessment of big talent and opportunity with decreased quality of opportunity; albeit temporarily.

 

 

VERDICT

The combination of Cooper’s age, opportunity potential, and substantial QB upgrade in Cleveland, I figure Cooper to be a dynasty buy or hold.

I see Cooper holding WR2 value with WR1 upside with Deshaun Watson leading the Cleveland offense. Even with a potentially temporary suspension for Watson, I believe in Cooper’s talent so I would be willing to buy with the expectation of a WR2 to WR3 floor.

However, if I already have Cooper rostered, I am more than happy to hold because the swing in his value has completely skyrocketed! He could very well be the piece to make a mid-tier team into a contender.

Amari Cooper is ready for launch!

 

 

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice

Rookie Report: Class of 2021 Year Summary and 2022 season Outlook

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Rookie Report: Class of 2021 Year Summary and 2022 season Outlook

By Steve Uetz

For the purposes of this season-long article series, I will take you through how all the fantasy-relevant rookies from the 2021 class are performing on a week-to-week basis. I will break down their weekly statistics and offensive role regarding their real-life development and fantasy football outlook.

The last time we reviewed the rookies’ weekly progress it was after week 16 and A TON has transpired across the NFL since then. Follow along as we review how the rookies performed as the regular season has concluded and ponder the players’ outlook for 2022.

 

Trevor Lawrence, QB Jacksonville Jaguars

In week 17 Lawrence and the Jaguars were demoralized by suffering a 40-point loss on the road against the New England Patriots. Lawrence completed 17 of 27 passing attempts for 193 yards with 1 TD, and 3 INTs. He gained 16 yards rushing and took 2 sacks.

After struggling against the Patriots, Lawrence ended his rookie season with a BANG! He led the Jags to an upset victory over the Colts which caused a seismic shift in the AFC playoff landscape. Lawrence had one of his best games of the season as he completed 23 of 32 pass attempts for 223 yards, 2 TDs, with 17 yards rushing while taking 1 sack.

Reflecting on the rookie of the former number 1 pick from 2021, Lawrence had a mostly forgettable season. Despite the mighty struggles, Lawrence clearly is the franchise QB and realistically has nowhere to go but up as a professional player and fantasy asset. The Jaguars recently made a fantastic head coach hire in Doug Pederson who should be instrumental in boosting Lawrence’s professional development! However, us football fans are patiently waiting to see two things from the Jaguars; 1) how Jacksonville approaches the 2022 draft, and 2) the return of a healthy DJ Chark. Entering his sophomore season Lawrence has QB2 upside but may unfortunately be a slow burn to stardom since the Jaguars have a massive task of a continued roster rebuild.

Zach Wilson, QB New York Jets

In week 17 Wilson and the Jets tough battle against the Buccaneers has become a complete afterthought due to Antonio Brown’s mid game meltdown where he stripped off his jersey and ran off the field. Tom Brady did that thing he always does and led his team to a comeback victory. The Jets held a 14-point lead in the middle of the 3rd quarter but were unable to tame Brady and Antonio Brown-less Buccaneers. Wilson’s performance was encouraging as he didn’t commit any turnovers and only took 1 sack as he completed 19 of 33 pass attempts for 234 yards and 1 TD.

Week 18 was a more reflective outing of how the Wilson and the Jets’ season was. Wilson was bested by the tough Buffalo defense as he took 8 sacks losing 79 yards. Wilson was held under 100 passing yards as he completed only 7 of 20 pass attempts totaling 87 yards with 1 TD.

After a mostly brutal season for Wilson and Jets there is reason to be excited for the future of the offense since Wilson is paired up with the dynamic duo in WR Elijah Moore and RB Michael Carter. Wilson will head into his sophomore season as no more than a back-end QB2 as he figures to be a dynasty hold. You likely won’t get a good enough return if you are trying to sell now and he isn’t much of a buy candidate unless you are a die-hard Jets fan that is numb to the perpetual suffering that the franchise brings you.

Trey Lance, QB San Francisco 49ers

Lance got the start in week 17 and tallied a win for a solid 20-point fantasy outing. Lance filled in for the temporarily injured but endlessly handsome Jimmy Garoppolo, as the 49ers faced the struggling Texans. It was a perfect opportunity for the veteran to rest and for the rookie to get some substantial experience facing a relatively weaker opponent. Lance performed well as he completed 16 of 23 passing attempts for 249 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, as he gained 31 yards on 8 rushing attempts and took 1 sack.

For the 2022 redraft season, Lance should be given the starting job as Garoppolo’s play making limitations were on full display in the 49ers impressive playoff run. With Lance as the starter, the mid-1st round Super-Flex rookie draft ADP from the previous year will be rewarded as he will hold QB1 upside for the foreseeable future. Lance will be a popular late round QB target for your redraft leagues, like Patrick Mahomes entering his sophomore season.

Justin Fields, QB Chicago Bears

Fields did not play in the final three games of the season. This is disappointing because he had put together two solid fantasy starts in a row leading up to his extended absence. The Chicago Bears will look very different in 2022 as they recently hired a new Head Coach in Matt Eberflus and General Manager in Ryan Poles. The Nagy and Pace era finally comes to end leaving Chicagoans in an optimistic and refreshed state of fandom.

For the 2022 redraft season, Justin Fields will be an interesting late round QB option with QB1 upside similar to Jalen Hurts entering his sophomore season. For dynasty, Fields certainly has QB1 upside with his juicy rushing floor but may be valued as a low QB1 to high QB2 range for the next 2-3 seasons.

Mac Jones, QB New England Patriots

In the week 17 annihilation of the Jaguars Mac Jones gave a stellar turnover-less performance. He completed 22 of 30 pass attempts for 227 yards, 3 TDs, and added 12 yards on the ground. With the guaranteed playoff spot secured, the Patriots lost to the Dolphins in week 18 as Jones regressed with two turnovers. He completed 20 of 30 passing attempts for 261 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Jones gained 4 rushing yards, took 2 sacks, and lost a fumble.

Jones finished the season as a mid QB2 but more importantly led the Patriots back to the playoffs after missing out in the previous season. All season long Jones was a safe and solid floor play as he could manage games playing with a strong defense. Long time Patriots Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels was hired as the Head Coach for the Las Vegas Raiders. It is a tough loss for the organization, but I question the overall impact it will have on Jones specifically. Despite the low fantasy ceiling, Jones is a clear franchise caliber QB which is appealing for Super-Flex dynasty leagues. Jones is a dynasty hold as a steady QB2 option.

Davis Mills, QB Houston Texans

Mills and the Texans had a rough outing against the Trey Lance led 49ers in week 17. Mills completed 21 of 31 passes for 163 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT, while taking 3 sacks. After the tough loss on the road, the Texans gave a more competitive and turnover-less effort at home against the division rival Tennessee Titans. Mills bounced back from previous week as he completed 23 of 33 pass attempts for 301 yards, 3 TDs, with 12 yards rushing while taking 2 sacks. Mills was mostly underwhelming but certainly flashed at times; this two-week sample is a microcosm of Mills’ rookie season which is comparable to a nausea-inducing roller-coaster ride that is best to avoid.

The Texans are a bit of a mess right now. They just unjustifiably fired David Culley, the one-year rental and made scapegoat head coach. They are dealing with a franchise QB crossroads as they continue to handle the Deshaun Watson saga and figure out if David Mills is the long-term option. They currently hold the 3rd overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft which feels too soon to target one of the top QB prospects in this upcoming class. Even if Mills going into his sophomore season as the starter, he has low-end QB2-to QB3 upside making him a hold in Super-Flex dynasty leagues.

 

Najee Harris, RB Pittsburgh Steelers

Harris ended the fantasy season in incredible fashion. The Steelers faced the Browns on Monday Night football which was believed to be Roethlisberger’s last home game in Pittsburgh. Not only did the Steelers win but Harris halted the Brown late game surge with a game-sealing 37-yard TD run in the final minute. Harris gained 188 yards on 28 rushing attempts and caught all three of his targets for 18 yards. 31 touches and over 200 yards from scrimmage is what fantasy football dreams are made of.

In week 18 during the rainy and sloppy contest in Baltimore, Harris struggled with efficiency in the battle for a potential playoff spot. Harris gained only 28 yards on 11 carries but caught all four of his targets for 27 yards.

Harris literally had a phenomenal rookie season as he compiled 381 total touches for an average of 22.4 touches per game. This total was the second most all time touches for a rookie running back, behind only the elite LaDainian Tomlinson (398 total touches in 2001). Harris will return in his sophomore year as a clear RB1 option even with lingering questions of quarterback contingency as the Steelers search for the replacement of the recently retired Ben Roethlisberger.

 

Javonte Williams, RB Denver Broncos

Javonte Williams’ season ended on a surprisingly down note. After setting the fantasy football world ablaze with passion in the several weeks prior, he finished the year being severely outperformed by veteran Melvin Gordon. Over weeks 17 and 18, Gordon doubled Williams’ yardage production with three less offensive touches (Williams 29 – Gordon 26).

I remain bullish on Williams going into his sophomore season where I believe he will be a reliable RB2 option. I recognize that his maximal range of outcomes could be as high as a low RB1, but legitimate questions remain about the identity and quality of the Denver offense. Will Williams continue to split time with Gordon? Who will be the QB and will the QB play improve? With new coaches in town, Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett and Offensive Coordinator Justin Outten, Denver’s offense could use a fresh start with their impressive core of weapons who in large part disappointed in 2021.

 

Elijah Mitchell, RB San Francisco 49ers

After missing three straight weeks Mitchell returned to the lineup in week 17 and continued right where he left off prior to the injury. In the winning effort against the Texans, Mitchell gained 119 rushing yards on 21 attempts and caught both of his targets for 11 yards and hist first receiving TD of the season! In week 18 he handled another 21 rushing attempts as he gained 85 yards for another strong display of rushing efficiency.

Mitchell churned out an impressive rookie season and arguably brought the largest return on investment from rookie draft season. There is no reason to think that the 49ers won’t roll with Mitchell as the teams’ RB1 after how he performed week in and week out. Going into his sophomore season Mitchell should be valued as an RB2.

 

Michael Carter, RB New York Jets

After performing well against Jacksonville in week 16, Carter disappointed to close out the season. In the wild week 17 matchup against the Buccaneers, Carter gained 54 yards on 3 rushing attempts including one run for 55 yards and caught his only target for 9 yards. This was unfortunate if you were relying on him for your championship week but it wasn’t a great matchup in the first place. Then in week 18 he struggled with rushing efficiency like he did early in the season as he gained 19 yards on 9 rushing attempts and was unable to haul in any of his three targets.

Carter finished as an RB3 and did most of his damage as a pass-catcher which was a promising aspect of his college profile. For his sophomore season, Carter should be regarded as Flex play or as a backend RB2 caliber player. I imagine that he will be a popular ZeroRB target for redraft leagues in 2022. He should continue to thrive in a passing game that will often be playing from behind.

Chuba Hubbard, RB Carolina Panthers

Hubbard closed out the season as the lead RB in a Christian McCaffrey-less offense against two tough defenses. In week 17 he gained 55 yards and 1 TD on 17 carries and caught 3 of his 4 targets for 13 yards against the Saints. In week 18 he improved his rushing efficiency and gained 48 yards on 9 carries and caught both of his targets for 8 yards and 1 TD!

Hubbard and the Panthers went through a rocky season where much of the offensive potential went unrealized with the shocking failed Joe Brady experiment. Joe Brady was fired as the Carolina OC and has since landed back on his feet as the QB coach for the Buffalo Bills. Hubbard most struggled with efficiency in his rookie year and needed a major workload to be confidently placed in your starting lineups. For his sophomore season I think he should be valued as a priority handcuff to McCaffrey and will be usable as a deep league Flex play in the case of McCaffrey to miss time again.

 

Jaret Paterson, RB Washington Commanders

Paterson was one of my favorite college prospects entering the 2021 season. I loved his landing spot and was thrilled that not only did he make the team but was able to contribute to fantasy teams when it mattered the most. In week 17, Antonio Gibson was ruled Out leaving the workload in Paterson’s hand for the fantasy championship. Paterson delivered for fantasy managers as he handled 17 touches for nearly 100 total yards and a TD. He gained 57 yards and 1 TD on 12 rushing and caught all five of his targets for 41 yards.

In week 18, with Antonio Gibson back in the lineup Paterson gained 21 yards on 6 rushing attempts and caught both of his targets for 14 yards. Entering his sophomore season he is presumably the clear handcuff to target and will be an excellent late round RB target for redraft leagues and an important acquisition on teams with Gibson rostered.

 

Kenneth Gainwell, RB Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles have used RBBC for the last several years; wisely for real life football but annoyingly for fantasy purposes. Kenneth Gainwell’s random but mostly minimal usage was disappointing since he had a knack for making big plays with the opportunities he was given. In week 17 he gained 4 yards on only 1 rushing attempt, but in week 18 he totaled 16 touches. Gainwell demonstrated explosiveness with multiple chunk gains for a total of 78 yards and 1 TD on 12 rushing attempts. He also caught 4 of 7 targets for 9 yards.

Entering his sophomore season, he will remain an intriguing player but may be hard to trust in a starting lineup unless there is clear and consistent opportunity like what transpired in the week 18 matchup. At this point I imagine he will be an RB I will be targeting in the late rounds of Best Ball leagues in 2022.

 

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB New England Patriots

In week 17 Stevenson heavily contributed to the Patriots 40 point beat down of the Jaguars. Stevenson gained 107 yards and 2 TDs on 19 rushing attempts while playing the role of clock-eating punisher. With New England being already guaranteed playoff berth in week 18, Stevenson only handled 5 total touches; he gained 34 yards on 4 rushing attempts and caught one of two targets for 2 yards.

Entering his sophomore season Stevenson will be primarily backing up Damien Harris. With the combination of playing with a strong defense and Mac Jones under center, the New England rushing game will be an attractive position group to target. Patriots running backs usually come at a cheaper price and are annoying to deal with; however, Stevenson is a very interesting player because of his potential ceiling. All things considered; I think he is a lottery ticket worth gambling on. He will be one of my favorite late-round Best Ball RB targets in 2022.

 

Ja’Marr Chase, WR Cincinnati Bengals

Chase ended the fantasy season in one of the most epic and glorious ways imaginable. He exploded in week 17 (during FF championship week) catching 11 of 12 targets for 266 receiving yards and 3 TDs! The 266 receiving yards broke the single game rookie receiving record! On a pure professional level he mightily contributed to the Bengals wild success as they earned the title of AFC North division champs in their week 17 win over Kansas City.

With the Bengals already being playoff bound, Chase only played in part of the week 18 contest as caught 2 of 4 targets for 26 yards. That yardage total was good enough to set not just the Bengals rookie single season receiving record, but the Bengals franchise single season receiving record! Leading up to the Bengals appearance in the Super Bowl, Ja’Marr also broke the rookie record for postseason receiving yards! (*swoon*)

His dominance from the LSU national championship run with Burrow didn’t let up all after taking the 2020 season off. Chase is an absolute stud and is a clear cut WR1 option until proven otherwise.

 

Jaylen Waddle, WR Miami Dolphins

Waddle, the PPR machine, closed out the season with two consecutive seven target games. In week 17 he 3 of 7 targets for 47 yards and in week 18 he caught 5 of 7 targets for 27 yards and 1 TD. Waddle concluded his rookie season as WR2 that eclipsed 1000 receiving yards and totaled 104 receptions on 141 targets!

His outlook is bright and should be considered a low end WR1 to a high end WR2 for the 2-3-year window. The Dolphins now continue their search for a new head coach as Brian Flores was surprisingly relieved of his duties. I’m am really excited about Waddle’s outlook and am looking forward to more future penguin ‘waddle’ TD celebrations!

 

DeVonta Smith, WR Philadelphia Eagles

Smith ended his season with two consecutive three-catch games as the Eagles earned a spot in the playoffs. In the week 17 win against Washington Smith caught 3 of 6 targets for 54 yards and in the week 18 shellacking against the Cowboys he caught 3 of 4 targets for 41 yards with Gardener Minshew under center.

Smith quietly finished the season as a WR3 coming up just 84 yards short of a 1000-yard season. He only eclipsed 100 receiving yards twice and ended the year with 5 TDs. Smith’s 916 receiving yards was good enough to give him the Eagles single season rookie receiving record. For his sophomore season I think he should realistically be valued as a WR3 option with WR2 upside. His rookie season brought a decent return on investment from rookie draft season, but not quite as good as the likes of Ja’Marr Chase or Jaylen Waddle. The future looks very bright for Smith!

 

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Detroit Lions

Few players across the league ended the season as strongly as St. Brown did. He concluded his epic 6-week glory fest with two consecutive 8-catch games. In week 17 St. Brown caught 8 of 11 targets for 111 yards and 1 TD! He also contributed to 23 rushing yards with a TD on 2 rushing attempts. If you rode the St. Brown wave into your fantasy championship you were mightily rewarded! The following week with the win against Green Bay, St. Brown caught 8 of 10 targets for 109 yards and 1 TD, with 12 rushing yards on his lone rushing attempt!

St. Brown finished the year as a low end WR2 which was an extremely pleasant surprise! Entering his sophomore season St. Brown should be valued as a low end WR 2 to high end WR 3. His amazing potential was on display as he finished the season earning double digits targets in six straight games.

 

Rashod Bateman, WR Baltimore Ravens

Bateman had a mostly disappointing rookie season and started the year off injured from training camp. After 5 straight weeks of earning 6 or more targets, his role in the offense was terribly inconsistent. In week 17 he had his highest targeted outing as he caught 7 of 10 targets for 58 yards followed by a week 18 performance where only caught 2 of 4 targets for 22 yards.

Baltimore’s passing game relied heavily on Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews which hurt Bateman’s ROI (Return on investment) from rookie draft ADP and the breakout game we were hoping for never really came to fruition. I still believe in Bateman’s upside; optimism should remain since he will be entering into his second season with a healthy, proper, and full off-season. Entering his sophomore season he should be valued as a WR4 with WR3 upside.

 

Kyle Pitts, TE Atlanta Falcons

Pitts finished the season with two consecutive two-catch performances. In week 17 he caught 2 of 4 targets for 69 yards, including one for 61 yards. In week 18 he caught 2 of 5 targets for only 8 yards. Pitts eclipsed 1000 receiving yards but only hauled in 1 TD over the course of the season. He finished the year as a TE1 (with a mostly erratic Matt Ryan) and will presumably be regarded as such until proven otherwise. Pitts partially lived up to the hype but still did enough to provide a solid return on investment being a top 5 rookie pick.

 

Pat Freiermuth, TE Pittsburgh Steelers

Freiermuth closed out the season with two consecutive 5-catch games. In week 17 he caught 5 of 6 targets for 22 yards and then in week 18 he caught 6 of 9 targets for 53 yards. Freiermuth should be regarded as a low end TE1 option for his sophomore season and likely beyond. Roethlisberger ended his career in Pittsburgh on high note but with clear play-making limitations. Whoever replaces him should serve as an upgrade for the Steelers pass-catching core, Freiermuth included!

 

Best and Worst of the rest of the 2021 Rookie Class

Elijah Moore, WR New York Jets

Moore achieved short lived fantasy stardom as he had seven consecutive weeks with 6 or more targets and was often involved as a rusher during that span. Moore’s potential was quickly realized but was unfortunately placed on IR, ending his season after his highest targeted game which came in week 13. Moore was one of the few bright spots of the Jets offense, I expect that to continue in his sophomore season and beyond. He should be valued as at least a PPR Flex option while holding WR2 upside. My pre-season player comp for Elijah Moore was Antonio Brown; I believe that potential upside can hold true moving forward.

 

Khalil Herbert, RB Chicago Bears

Since David Montgomery returned from injury Herbert only saw minimal work as a backup. It would serve you well to review how Herbert performed when Montgomery was out. Entering his sophomore season, Herbert should be valued as an elite handcuff option to target in either redraft leagues or as a buy low candidate in dynasty. If you have David Montgomery rostered in your league, I would be aggressive in my pursuit to acquire Herbert.

 

Brevin Jordan, TE and Nico Collins, WR Houston Texans

Jordan unfortunately caught one (and his only) target for 9 yards in the final two weeks of the season. Jordan is hold or a stash in deep dynasty TE premium leagues but expectation should remain low until we have a reason to be excited about a Houston pass-catcher besides veteran Brandin Cooks.

Collins remained steadily yet mostly minimally involved in the inconsistent Houston passing attack. In week 17 he caught 2 of 5 targets for 35 yards and in week 18 he caught 3 of 7 targets for 67 yards. Collins is essentially second in line for targets behind the veteran Brandin Cooks but Houston remains a struggling NFL franchise so optimism should be halted until we see clear positive improvements to the offense. A new head coach to start that process wouldn’t hurt either.

Joshua Palmer, WR Los Angeles Chargers

Palmer yo-yoed his way on the stat sheet through the last 5 weeks of the season. Week 17 was the low end of the yo-yo as he caught 3 of 5 targets for 16 yards but then shot up to the top in week 18 as he caught 4 of 9 targets for 45 yards and a TD. I love his situation being paired with the young QB stud Justin Herbert, but one big question remains: “Where will Mike Williams sign?” This will be critical for Palmer’s sophomore season outlook.

 

Kadarius Toney, WR New York Giants

Toney unfortunately did not suit up for the final two games of the season capping off a disappointing rookie campaign. Toney had 4 games where earned 9 or more targets which make him an attractive late round PPR target for 2022 redraft leagues. For dynasty he is a hold as the Giants offense has nowhere to go but after an abysmal display of incompetence. Recently hired Head Coach Brian Daboll will look to quickly turn the offense around. Hopefully Toney’s potential can be realized through Daboll’s system and with a healthier and improved version of Daniel Jones under center.

 

Rondale Moore, WR Arizona Cardinals

Moore unfortunately did not suit up for the final three games of the regular season but did return in the Wild Card playoff matchup where he finished second on the team in catches and targets. Moore displayed versatile usage with 18 rushing attempts over the course of the season, but unfortunately showed more floor than ceiling as a rookie. Entering his sophomore season, Moore remains in a great situation, but questions of his offensive role remain.

 

Trey Sermon, RB San Francisco 49ers and Terrace Marshall, WR Carolina Panthers

These two players unfortunately have a lot in common. They both churned out the worst return on investment from rookie draft season with highly questionable quality of outlook for the 2022 season. The hype train was at full steam going into the season and unfortunately derailed leaving fantasy managers perplexed by their lack of production and involvement in their prospective offenses.

 

Dyami Brown, WR Washington Commanders and Amari Rodgers, WR Green Bay Packers

These two WRs were commonly drafted at the end of the 2nd round of rookie drafts but were mostly completely absent from the plans of their prospective offenses. They currently are both dynasty holds, but could quickly become cut candidates if offensive involvement remains down.

 

Travis Etienne, RB Jacksonville Jaguars

Etienne was unfortunately sidelined for the season from a foot injury that he sustained in the pre-season. He looks to enter the 2022 season fully healthy which will be needed since fellow RB teammate James Robinson suffered an Achilles tear in week 16. If Cam Akers’ rehabilitation is any indication for Robinson, then Robinson should be in line to fully return by the start of the season. Etienne will likely get a jump start in opportunities as Robinson rehabs and should figure to be the featured RB as predicted going into the 2021 season.

Thank you for reading and following this Rookie Report series all season long!

Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!