Ryan Ramsarran

Dynasty Deathmatch: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs Darnell Mooney

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Dynasty Deathmatch: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs Darnell Mooney

By Ryan Ramsarran

 

 

Next up in our Dynasty Deathmatch series: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs Darnell Mooney. These are two similarly valued players at the moment, and many may be wondering - who will return more on investment? We’ll argue a case for both players in a typical versus fashion and then give our final verdict.

 

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Sun God. Many in the fantasy football community were excited about St. Brown being drafted to Detroit as the team lacked talent at the receiver position. He had a slow start to his rookie season but went on an absolute berzerk final 6 games of 2021. He averaged 93 yards and 0.8TDs per game and was the WR3 in PPR leagues trailing only Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams during that span; that is elite company - and a 6 game sample size is pretty considerable. So why are we here questioning his value? Well, Detroit drafted Jameson Williams in the 2022 draft (12th overall - 4th receiver overall), who some would say may have gone as the first receiver off the board if not for his ACL tear last year. 

Another thing to note, during St. Browns’ insane 6-game run, a big part of his massive boost in usage was Swift and Hockenson being out with injury. St. Brown averaged 4.7 targets per game in the first 11 weeks of the season, which sky-rocketed to 11 targets per game in the final 6. Even though his breakout was at the expense of some injured teammates, St. Brown showed he could be a reliable option for the team and lead the receiving corps. Jameson Williams coming in may open up the field for the Sun God. Williams is a speedster and can draw the defenders downfield to open up St. Brown underneath. Some managers may be slightly scared about St. Browns' situation, but he may benefit from the Williams pick and could be a great buy low this offseason.

 

Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney has played 2 seasons in the NFL so far and had an electric 2021. He was the clear WR1 on the Bears, commanded 140 targets (12 highest in the league), and finished as the WR23. Mooneys’ quarterback Justin Fields only played in 12 games last year and was only on the field for 70% of snaps in 9. Matt Nagy is gone. Fields will no longer be a rookie. Mooney and Fields have built a great rapport, and to top it all off - the only new competition for targets are Velus Jones Jr. (a 25 year old rookie) and Byron Pringle. All signs are pointing to a year 3 breakout for Mooney. The only concern for Mooney could be the play-calling as a whole. The Bears bolstered up the offensive line this offseason (through the draft especially), and by not making any real moves for the receiving corps - they may look to start establishing the run a lot more. Fields is incredibly athletic and can rack up a ton of yardage on the ground. Khalil Herbert stepped up in the run game when David Montgomery was out with injury for a few games last season, and the Bears may capitalize on having 2 talented backs and use them a lot more in 2023. Nevertheless, Mooney will be the clear WR1 once again and will have a huge target share as he did in 2021 (26.7%). 

Final Thoughts

Both of these players will likely be the lead receivers on their team next year. Amon-Ra will have a lot of target competition between Swift, Hockenson, and now Williams, whereas Mooney should be in for another 140 target season and will be the clear alpha on his team once again. Mooney is undervalued in both dynasty and redraft and should provide a ton of value at his current ADP and has the edge over Amon-Ra St. Brown right now.

 

Winner:

Darnell Mooney

 

Follow me on Twitter @RyanR_FF

Dynasty Deathmatch: Chris Godwin vs Diontae Johnson

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Dynasty Deathmatch: Chris Godwin vs Diontae Johnson

by Ryan Ramsarran

 

Next up in our Dynasty Deathmatch series: Chris Godwin vs Diontae Johnson. Both former 3rd round picks, these 2 are great wide receivers that hover around the same value right now. Today, we’ll discuss why each one has an edge over the other, and ultimately decide on a winner! 

 

Chris Godwin

Godwin is a talented and reliable receiver going into his 6th season in the NFL. He spent his first 5 years with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and recently signed a new 3 year contract to stay with the team. He’s had 2 1000+ yard seasons so far, and set a career high 98 receptions last year, before tearing his ACL in Week 15. Godwin had 1103 receiving yards this year and was averaging 9.1 targets per game (tied for 10th in NFL) before his injury. Godwin is often viewed as a WR2, likely from being on the same team as Mike Evans, but fun fact: Godwin has averaged more PPR points per game than Evans every year for the past 3 years! Due to some injuries, he hasn’t played a full 16 games since 2018, and won’t in 2022 either due to his ACL recovery. Although he’s missed a few games, he has finished top-15 in PPR points per game (among wide receivers) every year since 2019. In 2019 he was the overall WR2 which shows just how high his ceiling is. 

 

Tom Brady coming out of retirement was a good sigh of relief as the Bucs would have been in QB limbo, especially going into a weak 2022 QB class. Tampa was 1st overall in passing attempts last year and with Tom returning, they will most likely go back to letting him COOK. Godwin may miss a few weeks at the start of the season but will have plenty of opportunities when he gets back, especially with Antonio Brown and Gronk (as of right now) not being with the team for 2022.

 

 

Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson is severely undervalued. Like Godwin, he is a low-end WR1 that is priced as a WR2. Johnson is coming off a career year with 107 receptions, 1161 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Johnson is the clear alpha on the Steelers, boasting a 25.9% target share (8th highest in league) last year. Diontae is a PPR machine. He was 5th highest in receptions and averaged 17.2 ppg, which was 9th highest among wide receivers. These numbers are even more impressive when you remember that he had an ageing Big Ben as his QB. Diontae is a great route runner and is very good at creating separation. Not to mention he is going to have a new signal-caller this year.

 

Mitch Trubisky is coming in and he is no stranger to lasering in on one receiver. He peppered Allen Robinson with 150+ targets in both 2019 and 2020 and liked to have a true WR1 to rely on. There is also the scenario that Kenny Pickett (Steelers first round selection in the 2022 draft) eventually takes over as starting QB. Rookie QB’s tend to rely on one receiver more often than not, to help get more comfortable in the system and playing at an NFL level, and it will more than likely be Johnson. Johnson is the clear WR1 on the Steelers and has the potential to be a consistent WR1 going forward. Whether it's Trubisky or Pickett starting, Diontae is getting an upgrade at QB and will be able to build off his career year. 

 

Final Thoughts

Godwin and Johnson are both talented receivers who can be high-end WR2 / low-end WR1 going forward. Godwin does have the advantage that he has the GOAT throwing to him for the short term, but when Tom retires the Bucs will have a huge hole at QB, and a rookie QB may not be able to feed both Godwin AND Evans. Diontae is the undisputed WR1 on the Steelers right now and even with Trubisky or Pickett he should be peppered with targets like usual and be a huge value, especially in PPR leagues.

 

Winner: Diontae Johnson 

Dynasty Dilemma: Marquise Hollywood Brown

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Dynasty Dilemma: Marquise Hollywood Brown

By Ryan Ramsarran

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. The newest Arizona Cardinal. On the first night of the 2022 Draft, there was a shocking trade that saw the Cardinals send their first round pick (23rd overall) for Marquise Brown and a third round pick (100th overall). A lot of people are now wondering what they should do with their Hollywood shares and where his value is at this point.

 

 

Brown has been in the league for three years now and has improved year after year. He’s been a great receiver and was the clear WR1 on the Ravens. He went from 584 receiving yards in Year 1, 769 yards in Year 2, to 1008 yards last year. Brown had earned the trust of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens as a whole, and commanded 145 targets last year - in an offense that is usually very run heavy (Ravens were 3rd in rushing yards last year among all teams in NFL). 

Brown commanded a 26.7% target share last year (tied for 10th highest in the league). Being only 24 years old and getting over a quarter of the team's targets is a terrific feat. As for now, going to the Cardinals he may not see a huge target share like before but he may get a lot more quality passes from Kyler Murray than he did from Lamar Jackson. Kyler had the 2nd highest completion percentage in the league last year (69.2 %) and was tied for 1st in deep ball completion percentage (50%). 

Christian Kirk led the Cardinals in targets last year with 103, and departed this offseason to sign with the Jaguars. There's a huge opening in the offense and Brown will be able to carve out a role right from the start. Brown actually already has a great rapport with Murray from playing together in college. In their last year together at Oklahoma - Brown finished with 75 receptions for 1318 yards and 10 touchdowns. Hopkins, Ertz, and AJ Green are all over 29 years old and Brown should be able to eventually become the top target on the team as the others age out.

 

The Cardinals ranked 18th in total passing attempts last year. Their run game was very successful (led by James Conner & Chase Edmonds) which resulted in the team finishing 7th in total rushing attempts and 10th in rushing yards. Kyler also likes to spread the ball around. The highest total target share last year among the Cardinals receivers was 18% (Christian Kirk) which was slightly inflated due to Hopkins missing 7 games, and Ertz missing the first 6 games (was traded mid-season to Arizona). There is a lot more competition for targets in Arizona as they have Hopkins, Ertz, Green, Moore, and newly drafted standout TE Trey McBride joining the fold as well. Brown is very unlikely to repeat his 26.7% target share he had on the Ravens, and will likely be stuck behind Hopkins for targets. 

Brown also has not signed an extension yet. Granted, he’s only been on the team for a couple of days but AJ Brown was traded during the first round as well and signed a $100M contract right away. Tyreek Hill was also traded this offseason and got an extension that same day. Arizona was not willing to pay Christian Kirk which resulted in him signing with Jacksonville (for a contract worth $18M per year - which ultimately frenzied the WR market). There are reports that Arizona will be picking up the fifth-year option on Browns' contract - as they did with Kyler Murray as well, and will wait until next year to decide if they will offer an extension or not.  

 

 

Hollywood is a great receiver and was a great WR1 for the Ravens. He should be able to slide right into the WR2 role on the Cardinals with the possibility of becoming the WR1 in the future. He’s going to be playing with a much more accurate QB who he already has some great rapport with and will easily become one of the focal points of the offense.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @RyanR_FF

Dynasty Deathmatch: Chase vs. Jefferson

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Dynasty Deathmatch: Ja'Marr Chase vs Justin Jefferson

By Ryan Ramsarran

Jefferson versus Chase has been a long debate throughout this offseason regarding  who is the overall WR1 in Dynasty right now. Once teammates at LSU, to now competitors, these two players are young, talented and will be top of their game for the next decade. Both have reasons for being considered the Overall WR1 in Dynasty.

Ja’Marr Chase

Ja’Marr Chase showed he was an elite talent right from his first NFL game. During Week 1 in a game against the Vikings, he had 5 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown, which included a huge 50 yard touchdown. Chase set some impressive records this year, including having the most receiving yards in a season by a rookie (since the beginning of the Super Bowl Era) with 1455 yards. He also set the record for most reception yards in a game by a rookie with 266 yards. Chase was 4th overall among receivers in yards per target (17.19), and was third in touchdowns (14) last year. Chase put up elite numbers in his ROOKIE season and is going to be an absolute star. He finished as the WR5 in PPR leagues and was WR3 in standard leagues along with winning Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Chase is tied to a great young quarterback in Joe Burrow, and they are coming off a Super Bowl appearance last season. Burrow and Chase already had a ton of chemistry from their time in LSU and are clearly going to be one of the most iconic  QB-WR duos in the NFL for years to come. There were a lot of plays last year (including one on the LAST PLAY of the Super Bowl) where Chase is wide open but Burrow didn't have enough time to throw the ball. The Bengals know they have an Offensive Line problem and will work to solve it this offseason. Once they do,  Burrow will have a much easier time getting the ball in Chase’s hands. 

 

Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson has been making headlines ever since the infamous Jalen Reagor pick right before him by the Eagles in the 2020 draft, which had the entire NFL community shocked. Fast Forward to today: Jefferson has set a record as the only wide receiver EVER to have 3000 receiving yards in their first two seasons in the NFL. Needless to say, Jefferson is an absolute target monster. 

Last year, he ranked 4th overall in total targets (167) and was 3rd highest in team target share percentage at 29.9%. Jefferson has a very steady amount of targets resulting in a much safer floor than Chase. Chase only had a 24.1% target share (7.5 targets per game) - a big part of that being Tee Higgins presence on the offense (7.9 targets per game in 14 games played). Jefferson is the clear alpha on the Vikings, and the passing game entirely revolves around him. Chase also relied a little more on big plays last year whereas Jefferson had a steady 9.8 targets & 95 yards per game. Jefferson is a PPR cheat code and will easily be a top-5 receiver for years to come. Jefferson finished his first two years as the WR6 and WR4 in fantasy. He’s been a star right from the get go and will continue to be a top tier talent for years to come. 

 

Final Thoughts

This battle will continue on for a very long time. These are 2 of the best receivers in the game right now, and they are both under 24 years old. At this point, Jefferson has given us a 2 year sample of his abilities and fantasy production. He also has a much safer floor than Chase due to his very high target share (+ his higher total targets & targets per game) and lack of reliance on big plays. Chase’s floor may improve going forward, and definitely has a case for being the overall WR1 - but at this point in time, I’m rolling with JJ. 

 

Winner: Justin Jefferson

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @RyanR_FF

Dynasty Dilemma: DJ Moore

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Dynasty Dilemma: DJ Moore

By Ryan Ramsarran

 

DJ Moore entered the league in 2018 but it feels like he’s one of those guys who has been in the game for much longer than that. Moore just got a 3  year extension from the Panthers and will be with the team until 2025. He is in an interesting position in dynasty fantasy football since there are a lot of managers trying to sell, but a lot also hoping to buy. 

 

DJ Moore has been in the league for 4 years now, and he is still only 24 years old. Fun Fact: Moore is the only wide receiver in the ENTIRE NFL that has had at least 1200 scrimmage yards in each of the last 3 seasons (2019-2021). He also ranks 4th in receiving yards (3,525) among wide receivers over the last 3 seasons as well. Moore managed to pull off these stats with perhaps the worst QB history among all receivers in the NFL right now. Since coming into the league, he’s had Cam Newton, Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Will Grier, PJ Walker and Sam Darnold as his QB’s. Yikes. GET THIS MAN A REAL QB!! In the upcoming draft, Carolina has the 6th overall pick and won’t have their next pick until 137th overall. I highly doubt they would wait for a QB- and I am very confident in the Panthers choosing a QB at #6. Most mock drafts have them drafting a QB at #6 but they could also take the “tank” route and run with Sam Darnold to get a high pick in 2023 (which is a stronger QB class). Either way, it won't be too long before DJ Moore has a proper QB and can put up strong numbers. In 2021, Moore commanded a 28.4% Target Share which was 4th overall among wide receivers. He is clearly the alpha on the Panthers and will surely get a serviceable QB either this year or the next. 

 

 

There are a few reasons to sell Moore, but they are not specifically related to his stats but more on the Panthers as an organization. Saying the Panthers are a complete mess right now would be an understatement.  Matt Rhule has proven that he is an unserviceable NFL head coach, but for some reason the Panthers continue to keep him as the leader of the team. Then there's the QB situation. The Panthers have had a carousel of QB’s last year and have not solved the problem in free agency. Last year Sam Darnold, Cam Newton, and PJ Walker started at QB and all showed that they are no longer serviceable NFL starters. Carolina was one of the front runners in the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes but ultimately lost it to the Browns. Guys like Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield might still be available via trade, but at this point Carolina seems set on Darnold being the starter for 2022. Carolina ranked 28th in the league in Red Zone Attempts (47) and 25th in First Downs (322). With Darnold at QB and Rhule as HC, this offense will rank near the bottom of the league once again and DJ Moore’s value and stats will be a huge victim of the terrible team play. 

 

A lot of people look at Player > Situation in determining a player's value when it comes to dynasty fantasy football yet it’s overlooked a lot when it comes to DJ Moore. Carolina is a complete mess right now but DJ Moore has still managed to put up WR2 numbers with below average QB play. Moore is a young and talented receiver and is an average QB away from being a WR1 in fantasy football. Therefore, he is a huge BUY. 

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @RyanRamsarran

Dynasty Dilemma: Antonio Gibson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Antonio Gibson

by Ryan Ramsarran

 

Antonio Gibson was a very interesting prospect coming into the NFL. Believe it or not, he actually started his college career off as a wide receiver! He played a lot of special teams snaps, and ran many routes as a receiver before eventually starting to get some rushing attempts as well. Gibson has shown that he can be great both as a receiver and a rusher, giving him a very enticing draft profile. Teams are finding an increasing use for hybrid RB/WR type players in today’s NFL. Players like Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, D’Andre Swift and Austin Ekeler are some of the players that are used heavily in both the passing game AND the running game. Players like these are especially valuable in PPR leagues.

 

How has he fared in the NFL so far:

In Gibson’s first season, he ran for 795 yards and 11 touchdowns, and added 247 yards through the air. Gibson was a bit inconsistent in his rookie year-finishing 18th in total rushing yards among running backs. In his second year, he improved on the ground and rushed for 1037 yards and 7 touchdowns, and added 294 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air. He capped the season off with a stellar performance where he rushed for 146 yards and a touchdown against the Giants in Week 18. Gibson is in an interesting position fantasy wise as there are a lot of reasons to both BUY and SELL him. I’m going to go through both sides of the argument and then the final verdict.

 

Gibson has proven that he can be a three-down back and saw a big increase in rushing attempts from 12.1 attempts per game in 2020 to 16.1 attempts per game in 2021. A big part of Gibson’s struggles were a product of terrible QB play. Washington’s struggles on offense as a whole had them playing in a negative game script a lot of the time. Last week the Commanders traded for Carson Wentz, and at this point, looks to be the starter come Week 1 of 2022. Although Wentz is not the greatest quarterback choice, he is definitely one of the best ones they’ve had in years. Wentz led the Eagles to a 11–2 record (before injury) back in 2017 and the Commanders are hoping for a fresh start that will help get him back to being the star that he once was. Gibson will have a lot more red zone opportunities- and rushing opportunities in general-if the offense as a whole is improved. The Commanders offense was 24th in the league in points per game (19.7) and in red zone attempts (50). Wentz led the Colts to being 10th in points per game (26.5) and 9th in red zone attempts (64) last year. Hopefully Wentz can revamp the offense which will greatly benefit Antonio Gibson. Gibson finished as the RB13 (PPR) in his rookie year and RB12 in 2021 and could very well make his way into the top-10 in 2022.

 

 

 

Gibson is a great player but he doesn’t get enough opportunities to shine. J.D. McKissic is used on a lot of the 3rd downs/passing downs and gets a lot of the receiving work. McKissic had 589 receiving yards in 2020, and was on pace for 614 receiving yards last year before missing the final 6 games of the season due to injury. In fantasy, PPR leagues especially, Gibson’s lack of opportunities in the receiving game is what is keeping him from being a true RB1. Last year, McKissic was second among running backs in fantasy points per opportunity at 1.27, whereas Gibson was 40th at 0.74. Gibson also has a problem with ball security. He had 5 dropped passes (tied for 6th among RB’s) and led all non-quarterbacks in total fumbles (6) and fumbles lost (4) last year.

 

 

2 weeks ago, J.D. McKissic agreed to a 2 year deal with the Buffalo Bills and Antonio Gibson RB1 season began! The fantasy football community was ecstatic thinking about Gibson getting a workhorse role. — Within 24 hours J.D. McKissic had a change of heart and took the exact same contract to return to the Commanders. Believe me, if McKissic did commit and sign with the Bills then this entire piece would have been about why Gibson is an absolute HUGE buy. However, I now think Antonio Gibson is a HOLD/possible sell (only for the right price) at this time. Holding him is my recommendation as he is a young and talented player and is clearly the lead back for the Commanders. With McKissic being back with the team for at least 2 more years, Gibson’s fantasy ceiling will be capped and hover around the high-end RB2/low end RB1 range. If you could sell him to someone who is willing to pay mid level RB1 value for him — do it, otherwise he is a firm HOLD.