Nick Goodwin

The Three Players I Target in Redraft Leagues

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The Three Players I Target in Redraft Leagues

After countless hours of mock drafting for my home redraft leagues, the time has come to put that work to use. This year, I have three guys that I’m prioritizing to target in my leagues. These are players that I want all the shares of in 2023, and I’d highly encourage you to have these names highlighted on your draft boards. These are the players I am targeting in redraft leagues.

Now, no one needs to read about how you should be targeting Ja’Marr Chase in the first round. Who you should draft early depends on which position you are drafting from. Drafts are won and lost in the middle rounds, so those are the players that we need to unpack to have our best shots at winning a title this year.

A few things are leading me to “plant the flag” for these players, and that is their ADP, opportunity, and league-winning upside.

Without further ado, let’s talk about the three players I’m not leaving my redrafts without.

Breece Hall

In 2022, Breece Hall drafters thought they had themselves a league winner. Before his week seven injury in Denver, Breece Hall was showing off. Through weeks 1-6, Hall had accumulated 609 total yards and 4 TDs. His usage as a pass catcher within the Jets offense was a pleasant surprise, seeing 31 targets over that same six-game stretch. His involvement in the passing game resulted in three top-12 RB finishes over that stretch for fantasy. There was no doubt about it: Hall was a stud before his injury.

Now, they’re reasons to be weary of Hall this year. He suffered a torn ACL on October 23, 2022. He is less than a year removed from his injury, and unless you’re Adrian Peterson, running backs returning from ACL tears often take time to ramp up to “pre-injury” form (ask last year’s J.K. Dobbins owners).

Hall recently returned to the practice field but now finds himself with a new running mate in Dalvin Cook. I’m on the side of this being a good thing for Hall owners. The signing of Dalvin will ensure he is eased back into an every-down workload on an offense set to take significant steps forward this year. 

So why am I drafting him? I’m drafting Breece Hall because when healthy, he’s one of the best running backs in the league. His 5.79 yards per carry last year, his explosiveness in both the passing and run game, and the promise of a more explosive offense have me loving Hall in 2023. The best part about drafting Hall is that you can find him in round four of your redraft leagues. With the Jets signing Aaron Rodgers, their Super Bowl window is now. By the end of the year, the best players will be on the field, and Hall’s talent will overcome an aged and declining Dalvin Cook. Cook took steps back last year in both usage and efficiency on the ground. In 2022, Cook averaged 15.5 rush attempts per game, managing only 4.4 yards per carry. That lowered yards per carry was the lowest total of Cook’s career. A healthy Breece Hall is the better back, and fantasy managers should draft him as such.

Drafters should remember that it’s not unrealistic for Hall to be on a snap count early in the season. Everyone wants to start their fantasy season strong, but I’m more worried about how my team finishes. Breece Hall’s last few games this year will be against Houston, Miami, and Washington. Assuming your league has playoffs starting week 14, those are favorable matchups that might help you earn a trophy this year. Houston was last in rushing yards allowed in 2022, and Miami was 9th in points against. An exciting week 15 matchup against the Dolphins should lead to offensive fireworks in a showdown poised to have divisional and wildcard playoff implications.

Hall has an ADP of 39; if he’s available in the 4th, I’m not overthinking it. The 2023 season will be the last year where you’ll find Hall outside the top two rounds of your fantasy drafts.

Jahan Dotson

Move aside, Terry McLaurin, there is a new WR1 in Washington named Jahan Dotson.

With all the talk around Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave being top picks, the next two-year WRs often talked about are Drake London and Christian Watson.

Now, all are going to be valuable fantasy assets this season; however, the disrespect on Jahan Dotson, I can’t understand.

Weeks 1-4 last year, Dotson had 12 catches on 22 targets for 152 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie. That’s one hell of a way to start your NFL career. Dotson’s rookie year was then interrupted by a hamstring injury that kept him out for the next five weeks. Upon returning in week ten against Philadelphia, Dotson found his groove again. During the most pivotal weeks (15/16), he finished as WR9 and WR12 in PPR formats.

Why am I drafting Dotson? Terry McLaurin is unlikely to play week 1 for the Commanders as he is dealing with turf toe. That is a tricky injury that could linger throughout the season and one to monitor closely. The former first-round pick will have 0 target competition within this offense without McLaurin on the field. If Sam Howell proves he is a competent NFL QB, Dotson will smash his ADP of 85 on Sleeper.  

Wilson, Olave, London, and Watson had clear paths to be the top wide receivers on their respective teams in 2022. Dotson’s rookie year was much different. He stood opposite McLaurin, who, coming into 2022, recorded two straight 1000-yard seasons. He was the clear alpha in the offense. With McLaurin’s week one status unclear, I’m looking for Dotson to be the top target in this offense immediately. Expect Dotson to make the most of this opportunity and command a 20% plus target share, even upon McLaurin’s return.

Give me Dotson in round 7 of my redrafts. The second-year wideout received round 1 draft capital in 2022 and looked the part last year. With an entire training camp logged with Howell, I’m looking for Dotson to outpace McLaurin this year in yards and touchdowns.

Zach Charbonnet

Kenneth Walker managers beware: Zach Charbonnet is here to take away your third down opportunities. 

With Seattle’s selection of Zach Charbonnet in round two of the 2023 draft, fantasy managers scratched their heads with the apparent Walker slated to be the RB1. Walker looked great last year, and most were excited about drafting him on their 2023 teams. This excitement quickly died when Seattle selected the 6’1″, 215-pound pass-catching back out of UCLA.

Charbonnet was a proven pass catcher at UCLA, catching the ball 37 times for 321 yards in 2022. He was no slouch on the ground either, posting 1359 rushing yards on 195 attempts (14 TDs). His rushing line was good for 7 yards per carry.

I’m drafting Charbonnet as he has all the tools to unseat Kenneth Walker THIS YEAR as the RB1 in Seattle. 

Kenneth Walker was targeted 35 times for 165 yards in the passing game last season. He had an ADOT of -2.1 (Average Depth of Target). Seattle recognized the need for a more effective receiving option out of the backfield, and they found it in Charbonnet. 

Most have Charbonnet penciled in for receiving work on third down, but I foresee a much higher workload for the rookie. Charbonnet was a workhorse for UCLA and my RB3 of this rookie class. The Seahawks drafted Charbonnet to use him, not sit on the bench. If Charbonnet can be as effective on the ground as he was at UCLA and prove to be the better option in pass-pro, he’s going to be hard to get off the field. Charbonnet will find immediate usage in this offense, and if Walker were to miss games, you’re looking at a league winner.

I’ll take Charbonnet over other running backs in his range, such as AJ Dillon and Antonio Gibson. Charbonnet is the better prospect coming out of school and finds himself on the better offense (Seattle was 9th in points scored in 2022). With added rookie weapons in Zach Charbonnet and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I expect Seattle to take another step forward as an offense. Charbonnet has an ADP of 98, and at that price, I’ll happily add him to my team in the 9th round.

So what do you think? Who are some players you are targeting in your drafts?

For me, these three will be staples on all my teams, and if somehow I end up not drafting them, I’m sending out trade offers to acquire them. If you enjoy winning fantasy championships, I’d suggest targeting these players aggressively.

 

Nick Goodwin – ngoodwin_tv

Sources: Sleeper, cbssports.com, Pro-Football-Reference

Dynasty Dilemma: Kenneth Gainwell

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Dynasty Dilemma

Kenneth Gainwell

 

Training camp battles are heating up as we draw closer to the start of the regular season. Late summer is the time of year when roster spots are being won and lost.

My home town Philadelphia Eagles is no exception.

The reigning NFC champs have multiple positional battles underway this training camp, one of them being running back. Miles Sanders signed with Carolina in the offseason, leaving a 57% snap share up for grabs in the 5th best-rushing offense last year. With some familiar faces returning and some new bodies in this backfield, drafters are trying to figure out who will be the RB1 in Philly.

The Eagles added talent to the running back room this offseason by trading for DeAndre Swift and signing Rashaad Penny. The two are the clear candidates for most of the work out of this backfield. But what if I told you there was a 3rd guy in that locker room being overlooked by most? A guy who, last year, led the team in rushing throughout the playoffs?

Enter Kenneth Gainwell.

Gainwell is entering his 3rd year with Philadelphia, and challenging questions must be asked. Given the signing of both Penny and Swift, is there any opportunity for Gainwell on this offense? Should I be looking to move on from him? Is he worth taking a flier on? Is he a ‘value buy’ in Dynasty?

I hope to help answer some of those questions as we dive deeper into Kenneth Gainwell.

 

Reasons To Buy

Mini Camp Reports

Part of being a strong dynasty manager is staying AHEAD of the news. Following local beat reporters and columnists (Jeff McLane is an excellent follow for Eagles fans/ @JeffMcLane on ‘X’) who are on the ground at training camp can give you the exact edge you need over your league mates. With new faces and returning vets, the running back position has been one to watch thus far for the Philadelphia Eagles.

As of writing this, we’re two full weeks into training camp, and I’m here to share with you some surprising reports.

According to Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks on ‘X’), Gainwell has the most carries (40) and, most importantly, the most carries with the first-team offense (21) among running backs. Reports out of camp point to Swift working primarily in a pass-catching role and Penny being involved mainly with the 2nd and 3rd team offense. This current arrangement should have Gainwell managers optimistic. While it is early, this is noteworthy and a must-follow as we approach drafts and seek preseason dynasty trades.

Gainwell getting work with the first-team offense shouldn’t be that shocking, as he was their most effective runner down the stretch for their Super Bowl run. However, his lack of usage in the Eagle’s first preseason game against Baltimore (resting alongside the first-team offense) is surprising. It shows how comfortable coaches are in what they’ve seen of Gainwell in camp. 

Gainwell is someone I’ve watched closely over the last two years. He was always a guy I’ve wanted to get more touches on, and the Eagles have the same idea heading into the season (27% snap share in the Superbowl).

The Eagles’ backfield will be a committee backfield, but if Gainwell continues to see most of his snaps coming with the first-team offense, it becomes easy to see a path for a career year.

 

Eagles Offense

The Eagles’ offense last year was 5th in total rushing yards, 1st in rushing TDs, and 3rd in rushing attempts. They love to run the ball and do it behind the best O-Line in football. Miles Sanders put up 1269 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. Those are vacated carries, yards, and touchdowns within an offense that looks poised to repeat success heading into 2023.

The Eagles didn’t throw a ton to their running backs last year, as they were bottom of the league in pass attempts to the position. However, when they did decide to throw in the direction of a running back, passes were going to Gainwell. He led all RBs for Philly in catches (23), targets (29), and yards (169). 

Now most feel that Swift will take over most of the pass-catching work in this backfield, and only time will tell. But his targets will continue because Gainwell was the best pass-catching running back last year for the Eagles.

I expect this to be an RBBC (running back by committee) situation, but if Gainwell is the first guy up and the cheapest out of the three, I’d like to get my hands on a few shares in Dynasty and at the end of redrafts.

 

Cost

In Dynasty, Gainwell is almost a throw-in piece for most trades. Looking at the Dynasty Pros trade calculator, he is valued right around a 2024 3rd-round pick. Where else can you find a potential starter in a top 5 offense for a 3rd… I’ll wait… 

Other players at that price point are veterans like Hunter Renfrow and DJ Chark or unproven rookies like Chase Brown and Darnell Washington. Give me Gainwell over all of them.

In Dynasty, we take shots at guys to win our league. Penny and Swift will cost you much more to acquire, and neither is under contract with the Eagles after this season. Gainwell has two years left on his rookie deal, and if he genuinely is the Eagles’ first choice at the position, the ROI on Gainwell can be huge. I don’t see the risk baked in at this price. At worst, he is a young running back who can catch passes in a great offense. At best, we’re looking at the RB1 with the Eagles and a potential top-24 RB in fantasy.

 

Reasons to Sell

Competition

Rashaad Penny and DeAndre Swift have arrived in Philly. Since entering the league, Swift has finished as RB 20, 24, and 23 in PPR formats. When healthy, Penny has shown he can be hyper-efficient on the ground, leading the league in YPC (Yards Per Carry) since entering the NFL in 2018. Both players have had challenges staying healthy. Swift has yet to have an NFL season where he’s played more than 14 games, and Penny hasn’t had a season where he’s played ten or more games since his rookie year in 2018.

Swift and Penny are your top rotation going into the season for Philadelphia. These two have shown to be effective options for the position, and overall, they might be better talents than Gainwell when healthy.

Running QB

Jalen Hurts is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league. Last year, he accounted for 165 rushing attempts and 13 rushing TDs. Hurts vulture goal line work and ran the QB sneak to near perfection in short-yardage situations. The effectiveness of Hurts in the short-yardage inevitably limits a running back’s touchdown upside. There is nothing worse for fantasy managers than being first and goal at the one-yard line, and the quarterback takes what should be an easy 6 points for your running back. 

Another way RBs earn points in fantasy is through the air. Unfortunately for those looking to invest in this backfield, the Eagles were tied for last in the league at pass attempts to the position.

I expect this to stay the same in 2023. I fully expect the Eagles to continue what has worked: getting Hurts involved in the running game. His legs keep defenses on edge, and with the Eagles looking to repeat as NFC Champions, they’ll need to utilize all of Hurts’ tools.

For Dynasty managers, this will cap the potential production of all RBs in this backfield. With the volume Hurts receives in the ground game and the lack of pass attempts to RBs, a top 5 fantasy finish at the position is nearly impossible.

“Failure to Launch”

With Gainwell going into his 3rd year, why he hasn’t made more of an impact since being drafted needs to be answered.

Gainwell, in his first two NFL seasons, had Miles Sanders and Boston Scott ahead of him on the depth chart. Scott has been more of a depth piece for the Eagles in recent years, whereas Sanders commanded 70% of the possible running back carries last season. Now, I’m not a Miles Sanders guy. I’ve watched games where he would need more time to hit holes and sometimes will miss them entirely. This ineffectiveness by Sanders is even more glaring when you’re running behind the best O-Line in football. This rushing attack could have been better last season with a more explosive runner. I’m just not sold on that guy being Kenneth Gainwell… 

With Sanders being just an average NFL starter (in my opinion), I would have liked to see Gainwell start to command some of that volume last year. I would have liked to see more out of Gainwell in his first two years in the league. Since entering the NFL, Gainwell has never had a season with over 68 carries. At 5’9 200 lbs, he lacks the size of a “prototypical” every down back, and it’s hard to imagine him handling a “Miles Sanders” type workload. 

 

Verdict

Based on current ADP and most consensus rankings, Gainwell is a must-buy for Dynasty managers. Dynasty Pros currently has him as RB50 in Dynasty rankings. If reports out of camp are accurate and Gainwell is the starter heading into the year, Dynasty has no better value right now. Expect this to be a committee backfield, but if Gainwell truly is the RB1, he is in line for a tremendous season, regardless. 

Hurts will inevitably take away carries and TDs, just as he did last year, but even so, Miles Sanders finished as RB15 in PPR formats. The Eagles are a potent offense, and there is plenty of volume for the running backs to share. I expect this rushing attack to be just as effective as last year and for Gainwell to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. 

Both Swift and Penny are free agents after the season. Being the cheaper option out of the three, I’m happy to take shots on Gainwell, given his price. If you can get Gainwell right now for a 2023 3rd-round pick, smash accept and thank me later.

Be ahead of this news and pick up Gainwell wherever he is available.

BUY

Dynasty Dilemma: Michael Pittman

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Dynasty Dilemma: Michael Pittman

 

 

As August is underway, dynasty start-ups are in full effect. We have rookies settling in at training camp and veterans acclimating to new teams. As dynasty managers, we're taking high-level looks at new offensive systems and how our dynasty rosters are affected by the ever-changing NFL landscape.

A few offenses look much different this year heading into the season. One in particular that I keep revisiting is the Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts selected Anthony Richardson with the 4th overall pick in the 2023 draft. There are many unknowns surrounding Richardson heading into the league year, including what this offense will look like with Richardson at the helm. Frank Reich is out, and in comes Shane Steichen. Can Steichen unlock the full potential of this offense? Can Richardson elevate the playmakers around him? Improvements at the quarterback position can take your dynasty assets (RB/WR/TE) to the next level. In the case of the Colts, one player is most impacted by the arrival of Richardson, and that's Michael Pittman.

Dynasty managers are trying to make heads or tails of this offense, and there is a difference between "what it is" and "what it could be." So, I want to ask the hard questions. As a fellow Pittman owner, what should we expect? Is Pittman poised for a career year with what seems to be an upgrade at quarterback? Will the prospective rushing of Richardson cap Colt's ability to produce a top-24 WR this year? And most importantly, as dynasty managers, how should we feel about Pittman's short-term and long-term dynasty values?

I plan to unpack these questions and deeply dive into the dynasty dilemma of Michael Pittman.

 

REASONS TO BUY

QB Upgrade

Michael Pittman was drafted at the top of round two in the 2020 NFL draft. Since entering the league, the 6'4" receiver out of USC has had Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Jacoby Brissett, and Matt Ryan throwing him the ball. Rivers and Ryan deserve respect for their contributions to the game, but they were no longer elite quarterbacks by the time they arrived in Indy. Carson Wentz forgot how to play football upon returning from injury, and Brissett is a great backup but below-average starter.

Enter Anthony Richardson

Richardson was a top-three quarterback prospect (this year) on most industry big boards. Experts gawked at the arm talent, impressive stature, and the absurd numbers he posted at the combine. Most agreed that Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud were more "NFL ready," but Richardson was the quarterback with the highest ceiling. As the clear WR1 in his offense, Pittman projects to benefit tremendously from the quarterback upgrade.

In 2022, the Colts averaged 5.28 NY/A (Net Yards Per Pass Attempt) and 9.7 Y/C (Yards Per Completion). That's good for 30th in the league in both categories. Now, it doesn't take an expert to see that the Colts needed more explosive plays downfield. Richardson is known for two things; his running ability and his massive arm. Pittman recorded a career-best 99 catches last year but finished under 1000 yards. His YPC (Yards Per Catch) went from 12.3 in 2021 to 9.3 in 2022. His longest reception the year was 28 yards; he averaged only 57.8 yards a game. The hope here is that Richardson airs out the ball. If so, we should expect an uptick in the yards category for Pittman this year.

 

An Offensive-minded Coach, Shane Steichen

Another massive win for Pittman this offseason is the hiring of Shane Steichen. Steichen was the play caller and offensive coordinator for the Eagles' Superbowl run last year. The Eagles' offense last season was dominant, finishing second in total points scored and yards. In the passing game, the Eagles were 9th in yards, and their NY/A (Net Yards Per Pass Attempt) was 7.1 (good for 3rd in the NFL). The offense also produced two top-ten PPR wide receivers in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. When looking at how this impacts Pittman, it's simple, a good offense produces fantasy points. The Colts did not take shots downfield last year, which should change under Steichen. Obviously, the personnel is different in Indianapolis than in Philadelphia. Of course, you can not overlook that Jalen Hurts had an MVP-level season, possibly the best offensive line in football; the introduction of A.J. Brown and the second-year development of Devonta Smith were all the right ingredients for this offense to cook. But even with the right ingredients, you need a chef to put it all together, and Steichen was precisely that for the Eagles last season. It will be interesting to see how much his philosophy and schemes carry over from his time in Philadelphia. As dynasty owners, we're hopeful Steichen can work his magic with Richardson as he did with Hurts. We can foresee a more open offensive concept with big play potential downfield and the prospect of opposing Defenses playing up in the box to prevent Richardson from running.

 

 

 

REASONS TO SELL

 

Rookie QB

Currently, the Colts have yet to name a week one starter. If I'm a Pittman owner expecting to compete for a Dynasty title this year, I want to avoid Gardner Minshew getting the week one nod. Minshew followed Steichen to Indianapolis, and in his two starts for Philadelphia last year, Minshew threw for 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 629 passing yards, and had a 57% completion percentage. He is serviceable in a crunch but different from who you want under center. If Richardson's forced to sit for a few games, that would be a severe problem for Pittman and other fantasy-relevant players on the offense. Now, I fully expect Richardson to be the starter entering week one, but that is a situation we must monitor.

Nevertheless, Richardson is Colt's long-term answer at quarterback. While his fantasy outlook is exciting, we have to assume there will be rookie growing pains. Richardson is an elite athlete, and he may progress quicker than expected, but Richardson's immediate upside is his rushing ability. Richardson wasn't considered an accurate passer at Florida, where he only completed 53% of his passes in his final collegiate season. No doubt he can launch the ball, but at the NFL level, inconsistent passes and poor ball placement could allow opposing defenses to feast. Zach Wilson was the only starting quarterback last year with a completion percentage under 60%. I love Anthony Richardson, but if he makes serious noise on your roster this season, he'll be doing it with his legs. That is an undeniable part of his game that will be utilized immediately.

Target Competition

Remember when I said that Pittman was the clear WR1 in his offense? Well, he is for now. Michael Pittman is entering the final year of his rookie deal. In the last two seasons, the Colts have spent multiple third-round picks on TE Jelani Woods and WR Josh Downs, as well as a second-round pick on Alec Pierce. Pierce (drafted in 2022) saw 78 targets in his rookie season. When comparing Alec Pierce's rookie season with Pittman's rookie year, I was surprised that Pierce had more yards, touchdowns, and catches than Pittman did. It would have been near impossible for a receiver to "break out" in this offense last season. Even so, Pierce averaged 14.5 YPC (Yards Per Catch) with an ADOT (Average Depth of Target) of 11.7, compared to Pittman's 9.6 YPC and an ADOT of 6.9. That's a huge difference. And that leads me to my biggest long-term concern with Pittman. Richardson loves the deep ball, which he's best at. Unfortunately for Pittman, I see those balls going to Pierce.

In the last year of his rookie deal, Pittman has never really "wowed" me. Now, that's just my perspective of him as a player. But to me, Pittman lacks elite receivers' separation and the YAC ability. He's a great contested catch guy, but that has yet to translate to touchdowns. Overall, we know what we've got in Pittman, and given the arrival of other receiving options, I see them continuing to cut into Pittman's target share.

 

Johnathan Taylor

It's plain and straightforward here; if Johnathan Taylor sits out the season or is traded, I'm entirely fading the Colt's offense. The JT situation is still fluid, so I don't want to overreact, but he is a top talent. This offense will undoubtedly be better if he is on the field.

 

VERDICT

Pittman is a sell for me at a cost in Dynasty. I tend to swing for the fences when drafting or trading, and I don't see the upside in Pittman this year. In looking at Dynasty Pros WR rankings, Pittman is ranked WR21 overall. That is one spot behind Christian Watson and two places in front of Deebo Samuel. I have a hard time paying that price for a guy who lacks the potential to finish top 10 at his position. Using the Dynasty Pros trade calculator, if looking to move on from Pittman, you should be able to get back other young assets like Dameon Pierce, Rashaad White, or a winnow piece in Geno Smith. Although Richardson's ceiling is sky-high for fantasy, his passing will take time to develop, and if I'm a Pittman owner in contention, I don't have time to wait. We have to expect rookie growing pains, and I do not feel that is "baked in" to Pittman's current price. We could see new offensive weapons like Josh Downs and Alec Pierce demand targets. I need more certainty for a guy I'm just not that high on, to begin with. For Richardson owners considering Pittman, I'd recommend looking at Alec Pierce and Josh Downs at the current cost.

-

Sell

 

Sources: Pro Football Reference, Sleeper, Dynasty Pros, Sports Reference, CBS

Dynasty Deepcut: Ravens Training Camp

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Dynasty Deepcut: Ravens Training Camp

 

I'm announcing a quick Public Service Announcement with NFL training camps underway:

Remember to temper expectations when it comes to beat reports and live tweets coming out of open practices.

 

I'm always trying to find that next guy that no one saw coming.

Unknown players begin gaining steam and carving out roles in training camps yearly. And when a lesser-known player starts to flash, fantasy diehards look for late-round gems and Dynasty adds. In fantasy, I want to be ahead of my league any chance I get, and this is just a part of that process.

As we approach this topic, it's important to understand the inherent risk that comes with unproven players and training camp heroes. I've gotten burned with guys like Velus Jones, Ke'Shaun Vaughn, and K.J. Hamler. To this day, you'll still find Hamler truthers out there holding a roster spot for the former training camp, darling. It's fun to take shots at guys, and those shots can win you leagues, but they can also burn you.

Okay, so with disclaimers out of the way, what am I looking for? I'm looking for someone who can come out of "nowhere." Situations and players that my league mates are overlooking.  

If you were on top of training camp reports in 2020, you might have heard the name James Robinson floating around fantasy circles. The name wouldn't have meant much then, but as the summer went on, reports of an undrafted rookie running back turning heads at training camp would start to garner attention. Rumors of Robinson competing for the RB1 role in Jacksonville would circulate. As many were getting ready to draft in their home leagues, the Jaguars released starter Leonard Fournette 13 days before their regular season opener. Most fantasy owners ran to their waiver wire to try and put a claim in for the now starting running back of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Meanwhile, sharp drafters and degenerates like myself had him firmly locked on our roster, utilizing a late-round pick on the undrafted rookie out of Illinois State.

We are not in 2020; I don't think a 'James Robinson' exists this year. But there is a name and a backfield that I'm watching closely, and that's Baltimore.

J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are opening training camps on the PUP list. Whispers of a Dobbins holdout are making their rounds, and with what feels like an always-injured backfield, who else is there to take reps at the start of training camp?

Baltimore just signed Melvin Gordon to a 1-year deal. I don't know if anyone reading this has seen Melvin Gordon play recently, but he hasn't looked great (3.5 yards per attempt in 2022).  

He's a training camp body and depth piece. Justice Hill is also still on the roster but needs to fit the profile we're looking for here.

I'm looking for either 1st or 2nd-year players in a great position to take advantage if the opportunity presents itself.

 

 

Enter Keaton Mitchell.

Mitchell was an undrafted rookie free agent this year. Mitchell, an early declaration at only 21 years old, finished his collegiate career as 2× First-team All-AAC. In his sophomore season, he posted 1,452 rushing yards alongside 14 TDs. Mitchell led the FBS with plays over 10+ yards that same season.

For a smaller guy (5'8", 191), explosiveness is essential. Although he didn't test great at the combine opposite his peers, he did post a 4.37 40-yard dash (3rd in his class behind Achane and Gibbs). Speed kills in the NFL, and Mitchell has plenty of it.

With Baltimore's top two options at the position sidelined (for now), is there an opportunity for Mitchell to turn heads and ultimately carve out a role this upcoming season? Yes, he can.

Since Dobbins entered the league in 2020, he only has 227 carries. Gus Edwards is 28 years old, played only nine games in 2022, and missed the 2021 season.

In a perpetually hurt RB room, guys will get their chance. The Ravens love to run the ball, and they run it a lot. The Ravens were 2nd in total rushing yards last year and 7th in rush attempts. The previous year, the Ravens were 3rd overall in both categories. Most dynasty blogs and buy/sell articles tell you to go all in on J.K. Dobbins. I'm not saying to fade Dobbins; he's my RB19 in PPR formats heading into the year, and Dynasty Pros list him as RB16 in Dynasty. But this screams opportunity to me.  

It would take me two hands to count the amount of waiver wire picks spent on Ravens running backs over the past few seasons, staring right at you: Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, and Alex Collins. I'm not betting against a healthy Ravens backfield, but I would hedge. If Dobbins was to miss time, then who's up? A 'past his prime' Melvin Gordon? A guy who's just there in Justice Hill? A 28-year-old Gus Edwards is also still getting ready to start training camp.

A lot of "what if's?" and "maybe's," but that's what we want to be looking at as teams are coming together for the first time this offseason.

I'm not going with an obvious pick here, and I'm not trying to suggest that Keaton Mitchell can be the next James Robinson, but these are the setups as dynasty managers and drafters that we need to monitor.

As of now, I'm mixing in Mitchell with my last pick in best ball drafts, and in Dynasty, he should be on your taxi squad at minimum. Keaton Mitchell bursting on the scene and contributing to your fantasy team this year is unlikely, but so was James Robinson in 2020. It's a situation and a player I watch for as the summer goes on.

 

Nick Goodwin (@ngoodwin_tv)

Sources: Sleeper, CBS.com, NFL.com, fatasydata.com, Pro-Football-Reference.com, Baltimore Ravens Official Website, ESPN

Dynasty Dilemma: James Cook

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Dynasty Dilemma: James Cook

 

It’s that season. My favorite season. The time of mock drafts, best-ball drafts, and Reddit threads.

 

In my search for league winners, buy low dynasty targets and 2nd-year breakouts, I find myself returning over and over to James Cook. This 2nd year running back has the dynasty community split, and drafters not knowing whether he’s capable of finishing this year as an RB2.

 

At 5’11, 190lbs, James Cook lacks the ideal size for a starting running back in the NFL. However, he makes up for what he lacks in size with his game.

 

After a lackluster rookie campaign, can James Cook have a 2nd-year breakout? Will Cook boom or bust? Is he a buy or sell-in dynasty?

 

Let’s dive in and break down the enigma that is James Cook.

 

 

REASON TO BUY

 

Pass Catching

The running back position is changing. You must be able to catch the ball to demand a three-down snap share in a modern NFL offense. Coming out of Georgia, Cook was considered a natural pass catcher and advanced route runner for the running back position. Although we didn’t see this shine as much in his rookie season, the tools are there. Take Kenneth Walker III, for example. Walker put up an impressive rookie season, and Seattle still drafted Zach Charbonnet in the 2nd round in 2023 for his pass-catching abilities. Like many other teams, Seattle recognized that having an elite pass-catching option out of the backfield adds extra dimensions to your offense and makes your attack less predictable to opposing defenses. In briefly looking back at the Bills’ selection of Cook in 2022, the Bills drafted Cook as ‘that guy.’ The multifaceted weapon, the motion man, the safety blanket, the “turn nothing into something” option at the running back position. He was best at that in college, where he will excel in the NFL.  

 

In the limited sample size from his rookie season, Cook averaged 2.3 YBC (Yards Before Catch/Per Reception), 6.3 (Yards After Catch/ Per Reception), and an ADOT (Average Depth of Target) of 2.4. To compare that against his former running mate, Devin Singletary put up: (0.6 YBC/ 6.8 YAC / 0.2 ADOT). Among qualified running backs, Cook finished between Antonio Gibson (6.5) and Rashaad White (6.2) in YAC last season. Both Gibson and White are “plus” receiving talents at running back. Cook’s ADOT was ahead of Najee Harris and Tony Pollard.

 

Cook isn’t your traditional workhorse back, and the Bills know that. They would not have selected Cook in the 2nd round while in “Superbowl or Bust” mode unless they were planning on using him as a playmaker within this offense. Look for Cook to impact the Bills’ receiving game this upcoming season significantly.

 

Opportunity

It isn’t a secret that the Bills sparingly used Cook during his rookie season. Between weeks 1-12, Cook averaged a snap count of only 16.9%. That could be better. Now, they’re a few things we can look at:

 

Departure of Devin Singletary

Devin Singletary has been an established presence in this Bills offense over the last few seasons, accounting for 52 targets in the passing game, along with 177 rushing attempts. With his departure, James Cook will get opportunities to work with Josh Allen and the first-team offense this summer.   After an entire off-season program,  I have a hard time believing that Damien Harris presents a real challenge to Cook for the starting RB spot within this offense. 

 

Another would-be contender for targets, Nyheim Hines, just suffered a season ending knee injury.  This both simultaneously opens up opportunities for Cook, yet could also opens the door for a veteran running back signing.  This will be something to watch as the offseason progresses.

 

Fantasy has shown us recently that youth wins, especially at running back. Targets are up for grabs, and if I’m Sean McDermott, I want my most explosive players on the field. Cook averaged 3.7 yards before contact on his carries last year, putting him ahead of guys like Travis Etienne, Aaron Jones, and Christian McCaffrey. With limited touches from the Bills, Cook was still effective and efficient on those touches.

 

 

Weeks 13+

After starting the season at a 16.9% snap count (weeks 1-12), Cook averaged 40.1% of offensive snaps for the remainder of the season (including the playoffs). The Bills more than doubled his snap count when it counted the most. As with most rookies, they find their groove within an offense as the season goes on. With the draft capital spent on Cook and how the snap shares trended late in the season, it is easy to see a path where Cook demands a 60% snap share or higher within this offense heading into the 2023 season.

 

Price

Right now, Dynasty Pros has Cook as RB30 in Dynasty rankings. That’s behind David Montgomery, Isaiah Pacheco, and Devon Achane. With all things considered, it is well within Cook’s range of outcomes to smash that ADP and outproduce others in front of him. I was looking at Rachaad White, who is ranked RB20 on Dynasty Pros. I don’t feel this is too high, and I’m not anti-Rachaad White, but when I project him next to Cook, I cannot justify taking White 10 positional spots higher. White will have the opportunity, but the Bucs could be a bottom-five offense this year. The Bills will be competitive in every game and put up points. I’m taking shots on guys in that offense, and I’ll fade whoever has Baker Mayfield starting under center.

 

 

REASON TO SELL

 

Size

My biggest concern with Cook is his size. At only 190 lbs, few with his size are starting at RB in the NFL. The average NFL running back weighs 214 lbs, and Cook isn’t even close to that. How much does his size limit his ceiling? Can he add weight this offseason to support an increased workload? These are the questions that most dynasty managers are looking at. Not a single running back over the last 15 years has had a fantasy finish inside the top 10 at running back while weighing in under 200 lbs. That is alarming.
It is worth noting that Austin Ekeler is listed at exactly 200 pounds.  The 200-pound mark seems to be a distinct cut off for weight at the position, with those falling short of it, having fantasy production that finishes outside the Top-10. We know size matters at running back, but it was surprising that not a single Top-10 fantasy finish was from a player under 200 pounds. History is not on Cook’s side based on his size to finish as a top fantasy producer at the position.

 

Utilization within Offense

One of the biggest reasons to buy Cook is also one of the biggest reasons to sell him. As much as he’s likely to receive a majority of pass-catching work out of the backfield, he is unlikely to take away from Josh Allen at the goal line. Accounting for that, how valuable is a running back that isn’t getting goal-line touches? It would be naive to ignore the rushing ability of Allen and the Bills’ propensity to use this within the red zone. Allen accounted for 124 rushing attempts and seven rushing touchdowns in 2022.  Twenty-six rushing attempts came within the red zone, only trailing Hurts and Fields in this category. Is this the year we see these numbers start to drop for Allen? The best ability is availability, and the Bills have a 0% chance of reaching the Superbowl if something happens to Allen. With Allen another year older, I don’t see these rushing attempts trending up, but rather, they should start to come down. Even so, rushing attempts for Allen will remain, severely limiting Cooks’ ceiling. The last time I checked, it’s still 6 points per rushing touchdown for RBs.

 

VERDICT

Cook is a buy for me in Redraft and Dynasty at his current price. Considering what I’d be giving up for Cook in Dynasty, it will likely be a 2024 2nd-round pick. I’m not overpaying for a guy in an explosive offense who can contribute in the receiving game. The Bills will need to make it a priority to get Cook the ball in space. Outside of Diggs, the Bills need another explosive playmaker in the offense. You can say Gabe Davis, but most agree he’s just an average player. Even if you do not feel Cook is a long-term solution for you at RB (given size concerns), I feel like he can contribute to your Dynasty team as a flex option this year, and when he outperforms his ADP, look to flip him heading into 2024.  

 

In Redraft, he’s a guy I’m taking shots on in and around the 9th round. For 2023, I’m projecting Cook to have 145 carries / 660 rushing yards, 6 Rush TDs / 55 receptions  / 350 receiving yards, 4 Rec TDs. This stat line would have made him RB15 in PPR formats last year. If I can buy at RB30, and he finishes as RB20 or lower, that’s a win.

 

Now we know this is highly speculative, and I’m likely more bullish than others on James Cook, but given the cost, I’m willing to pay the price.   Whether you’re going a Zero-RB build or just looking to “shoot for the moon” on guys that can smash their ADP, you need to be looking at James Cook in Dynasty and Redraft.

 

BUY

 

Nick Goodwin (@ngoodwin_TV)

 

Sources – Sleeper, Dynasty Pros, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, Pro-Football-Reference