Mike Lindberg

2023 Bold Predictions

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2023 Dynasty Bold Predictions

Disclaimer

There is a reason we call them BOLD predictions, a lot of bounces will need to go their way for any of these to come to fruition. These are all players, however, I think will take a leap in 2023, improving their dynasty outlook for years to come.   

 

Running Backs

James Cook, DynastyPro's current dynasty running back 30, finishes 2023 as a top 15 running back, firmly planting him as a top 15 dynasty running back.

James Cook had a fortunate offseason, and he is now poised to enter 2023 with every opportunity to become a featured piece of the Bill's offence. First off, the team loves him, they proved that by taking him in the 2nd round 63rd overall in the 2022 NFL draft. Pricey draft capital when you consider the state of the position. Cook was the third running back off the board in the 2022 NFL draft, only behind Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall. Cook can accelerate quickly, he has great hands, and great long speed, and this allows him to make big plays as a runner and pass catcher. His size is the biggest knock to his game, as many don’t believe his size can handle a heavy workload. Although not as small as Cook, we have seen similar style running backs like Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey smash. Those are obviously outliers, however NFL teams are evolving and now coveting smaller dual-threat running back/wide receiver hybrids and Cook falls perfectly into this category. The Bills parted ways with Devin Singletary this offseason, opening the door for Cook to seize the early-down role. The Bills did however, bring in veterans Damien Harris and Latavius Murray, but I don’t see them being big threats other than to each other, vulturing goal line work that Cook wasn’t getting anyhow.  In the two preseason games the Bills played their projected starters, Cook averaged an 80% snap share, received 79% of the rush attempts, had 70% route participation, and a 17% target share. These are all great signs, What’s more, Cook finished 2022; 2nd in true yards per carry with 5.3, 3rd in yards per touch with 6.3, and 1st in breakaway run rate 12.7% (Playerprofiler).  With all this said, if the stars align, Cook will smash this year and this bold prediction may not be too far-fetched.     

 

Tyjae Spears, DynastyPro's current dynasty running back 41, finishes 2023 as a top 24 running back, establishing him as a top 20 dynasty running back.

Tyjae Spears not having an ACL scared teams from drafting him ahead of guys like Kendre Miller and Zach Charbonnet. In 2022, his final year in college at Tulane, Spears rushed for 1581 and 21 tds in 2022, a monster season. After watching him spear through defenses this preseason, I am laying those ACL fears to rest. There is no way the Titans will be able to keep him off the field after this strong showing. He led the NFL this preseason with 4.73 yards after contact and finished 9th in yards per carry(Credit @SharpFootball), doing so while facing stacked boxes. One of the best handcuffs in all of football, behind an aging, heavily used, Derrick Henry. He is elusive and his explosion plays are a beautiful thing to watch. Spears is a great pass blocker and can catch the ball well. There is an immediate opening for Spears to take on the 3rd down role in Tennessee. He won’t disappoint with these early opportunities, leading him to take away a piece of Derrick Henry’s rushing load. Furthermore, he would immediately catapult into low-end RB1 with a Derrick Henry injury and become an instant league winner. By early-mid season Spears should carve out stand-alone value catapulting him into a top 24 finish.

 

 

Wide Receivers

 

Skyy Moore, DynastyPro's current dynasty wide receiver 57, finishes 2023 as a top 24 wide receiver, establishing himself as a top 24 dynasty wide receiver.

 

Skyy’s the limit when you have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes endorsing your offseason progress. There is a slot position and 135 vacated targets up for grabs in the Kansas City receiving corp. The draft capital that the Chiefs spent on Skyy Moore leads me to believe that he will get the first-crack vacated targets and that coveted slot position. In addition, he is playing every snap alongside Marquez Valdes-Scantling with the first-team offense.  I am confident he will make a right on his lackluster rookie season.

 

For a full breakdown of Skyy Moore’s dynasty value check out my Dynasty Dilemma on him, This goes deeper into this.  

https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-dilemma-skyy-moore/

 

Jahan Dotson, DynastyPro's current dynasty wide receiver 28, finishes 2023 as a top 15 wide receiver, establishing himself as a top 12 dynasty wide receiver. 

 

Jahan Dotson, is perhaps the most underrated 1st round wide receiver picked out of the 2022 rookie draft. As a rookie, Dotson finished 2022 tied for 14th in wide receiver touchdowns, even though he missed 5 games. No doubt the Commanders made an upgrade at quarterback, Sam Howell and Dotson showed chemistry in the one game they played last season, and looked dialed in with each other during the two pre-season games they played together. New offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, will surely plan to get Dotson into space and utilize his blazing speed, similar to how he did with Tyreek Hill in Kansas City. Dotson has got great hands posting an 81.4% catch rate, and was on pace for an incredible 10 touchdowns in his rookie season. Finally, Terry McLaurin is already battling a turf toe that he suffered in the pre-season. Chances are that McLaurin will miss at least a couple of games, allowing Dotson to start this season blazing, further improving Dotson’s outlook for a huge breakout in 2023.

 

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones, DynastyPro's current dynasty quarterback 16, finishes 2023 as a top 7 quarterback cementing him as a top 8 dynasty quarterback

Daniel Jones, sent shockwaves through the NFL when he was selected 6th overall in the 2019 NFL draft. This was a surprising move at the time, but still, one that many consider to be an outlandish selection. After a shaky start to his career, Jones has steadily improved his completion % each season, topping out at 67.2% in 2022.  Jones has also made strides in his ball protection, in his rookie season he threw 12 interceptions, improving this mark every single season, Jones only threw 5 interceptions in 2022. Everything you want to see from your franchise quarterback, and yes, we can call him a franchise quarterback after last season. Jones quietly finished 2022 as the QB 9, throwing the ball more than he ever did with 472 pass attempts. This number will surely only go up this year with the additions of Darren Waller and Jaylin Hyatt. Jones ran for 708 yards and 7 touchdowns, solidifying him as an under-the-radar dual-threat quarterback. Every offseason, Jones has made improvements to evolve his game and I think this offseason is no exception. He is looking a lot more confident in throwing into tight windows. The addition of Darren Waller will only benefit Jones positively, especially in the red zone where he has been inefficient at converting passing touchdowns.  Even a small 5th-year leap will make this bold prediction a more realistic expectation.   

 

Sam Howell, Dynasty Pros' current dynasty quarterback 30, posts a top-18 finish moving him into the top 15 of dynasty quarterbacks

 

Sam Howell is set for a big 2023, blessed with one of the most underrated and talented receiving corps in the NFL, with his arm ready to sling the ball 600+ times in the new Eric Bienemy offense. Bienemy is known for producing exceptional quarterbacks in his systems. There hasn’t been a quarterback in a Bienemy system to finish worse than the quarterback 7(credit Fantasy Gazette). I am not saying that Sam Howell is the next Patrick Mahomes, however, there is the potential for a legitimate breakout in this Bienemy system. Howell has some traits in his game similar to Mahomes’s that Bienemy is surely excited to work around; great arm strength, poise in the pocket, and sneaky mobility. Howell should emerge as a poor man’s Mahomes with all his similar traits. After a season on the bench waiting in the wings, Howell is poised to use his new weapons and flourish in his first year as a starting quarterback in the NFL.    

 

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid, DynastyPro's current tight end 8, finishes 2023 as a tight end 5, firmly planting him as a top 3 dynasty tight end

 

After another disappointing exit to the 2022 NFL playoffs, the Buffalo Bills were clearly in the market to upgrade their pass-catching room with their 1st round pick. Once the Power 4 wide receivers went off the board, the Bills went with the next best-receiving option in the draft by picking tight end Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick. The Bills desperately need a big slot option to take pressure off of Stefon Diggs. Last season, in Utah, Kincaid was a slot machine, ranking amongst the best in the nation lining up there. The Bills traded up for Kincaid so he should see all the opportunities and targets that he can handle this season. He profiles similar to Travis Kelce, and the Bills are hopeful that their first-round pick can one day deliver similar top-tier production. 

If the Bills plan on using him like they are eluding us to believe, Kincaid is poised for a huge rookie season. Breaking the outlier that tight ends cannot produce big numbers in their rookie season.

Dynasty Dilemma: Jerry Jeudy

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Dynasty Dilemma

Jerry Jeudy 

 

 

draft they were expecting production similar to the thoroughbreds CeeDee Lamb and  Justin Jefferson. Why wouldn’t the Broncos expect that considering they selected him ahead of both Jefferson and Lamb? Headed into the draft many considered  Jeudy to be the most NFL-ready, a 5-star recruit known for his elite route running and separating abilities. Jeudy was an Alabama superstar, and he continues to rank 2nd in receiving touchdowns and 4th in receiving yards all time for the Crimson Tide.  No wonder the Broncos were excited about their potential superstar! There was a  lot of optimism for the Broncos offense heading into the 2020 season. Drew Lock was coming off an appealing 5 game heater to end the 2019 season. Courtland  Sutton was fresh off an impressive sophomore season in which he totaled 72  receptions for 1112 yards and 6 touchdowns. In comes Jeudy, poised for a breakout rookie season, all signs were pointing in the right direction. What could go wrong?  Fast forward 3 seasons: Jeudy has not lived up to expectations nor has he paid off on his lofty price for the round 1 draft capital. This was mainly due to injuries; poor quarterback play, and questionable coaching. Does this mean Jerry Jeudy is a bust?  There is some optimism in the air in Denver and rightfully so. Jeudy finished the  2022 season strong. The Broncos went all-in and emptied the bank and brought in  Head Coach Sean Payton and future Hall of Fame quarterback Russell Wilson. Unfortunately, Jeudy has found the injury bug again heading into 2023. He suffered a  grade 2 hamstring injury during a joint practice with the Rams on August 24th. Most of the fantasy football medical analysts are predicting him to miss at least 3-4  games. There were a lot of analysts jumping on the Jeudy train this year before this setback, me being one of them. What is Jeudy’s outlook now heading into 2023 and beyond for dynasty managers? Let’s dive in.   

 

Reasons to Sell 

Hot Potato Hands 

On the surface, 52 receptions and 856 yards receiving are good numbers for a  rookie wide receiver in the NFL. However, when we look a little closer, these numbers should have been far better. Jeudy was targeted 113 times and only came up with 52 receptions for a catch rate of 46% and a drop rate of 11.5%.  These are alarming numbers for a perennial first-round pick. Subsequently, his second year and third year saw improvements in these numbers with a 67% catch rate and a 5.2% drop rate. These numbers are pedestrian, sadly, not what the Broncos were hoping for when we consider draft capital spent.  

 

Taking his Ball and Going Home

Jeudy has all the talent in the world but he hasn’t been precisely dealt the greatest hand when it comes to his situation in Denver. The Nathaniel Hackett experiment was enough to leave a sour taste in all of our mouths. This, however, still doesn’t justify Jeudy’s play when he isn’t being the featured guy.   

In the past Jeudy has had issues staying engaged, and at times he can be spotted on the sideline losing his temper if the ball isn’t going to him regularly. This is a  situation worth monitoring, as it has been well-documented that the new Head Coach, Sean Payton, does not respond well to disruptive players. If Jeudy continues down this road he could find himself in the doghouse, losing valuable snaps. 

 

That’s my Quarterback 

What’s more, Jeudy hasn’t been the heir of decent quarterback play. Through his 3  years in Denver, he has had the ball thrown to him by the likes of Drew Lock and  Teddy Bridgewater – not precisely groundbreaking top-tier quarterbacking. I will give a slight edge, however tilting towards Bridgewater, with career completion rates of  66.4% vs. the 59.3% of Lock. To add to this, only 59% of Jeudy’s passes in his rookie season were considered catchable. When the Broncos brought in Russell Wilson last year, many thought he would be the answer to the woeful offense. Wilson struggled early and often with his accuracy, finishing with the worst passing completion percentage (60.5%) and worst quarterback rating (84.4) of his career. Wilson ended his first season with the Broncos registering the most awful statistical output of his  11-year career. It’s worth noting, that one of Jeudy’s best career games was with Brett  Rypien throwing him the ball! Yuck!

 

Paying Rent in the Blue Tent 

Finally, Jeudy has struggled to stay healthy over the past 2 seasons. Jeudy has been plagued with injuries, notably a high ankle sprain which sidelined him for 6 games during his sophomore season. Parts of Jeudy’s inconsistencies are due in part to his injury history. Stating the obvious, missing games is not good for fantasy production. In addition, we must always consider a production dip from players coming back from injury as they are normally eased back into action. Furthermore,  Jeudy has already sustained a hamstring injury that will likely sideline him for about  4 games to start 2023. Soft tissue injuries are never good, he could be battling this injury the entire season, not to mention the higher risk of re-injury. Unfortunately,  there will always be injury concerns for Jeudy until he can prove he can stay healthy for a full season.      

Reasons to Buy 

Beautiful Minds 

Broncos’ new Head Coach Sean Payton led the New Orleans Saints to 9 playoff berths and one Superbowl in his 15-year tenure with the Saints. His offense was known for its production, leading the league 6 times in net yards, It was the top-scoring offense in 2008 and 2009, and the team posted a top-10 scoring offense in 12 out of Payton’s 15 seasons with the Saints. Jeudy will be an immediate benefactor from the change in coaching philosophy.  

To me, however, the most intriguing offseason addition was that of the new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi.  Most recently, Lombardi was the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers (2021-2022). Under Lombardi, the Chargers passed an average of 700 times per season! If we look back at Payton-led offenses and take the average passing attempts per season we are looking at roughly 600 attempts per season. This is another large number that owners can be optimistic about considering they were playing 16 game seasons back then. The Broncos are expected to be a run-heavy team, however, 600 pass attempts are not out of the question for the Broncos this year and beyond. This will only lead to more targets headed Jeudy’s way.  I would not be surprised if Jeudy saw upwards of 140 targets per season under this new regime if he can stay healthy and play a full 17-game schedule. 

Lastly, word coming out of the Broncos camp is that Payton is high on Jeudy, and he will be giving him all the targets he can handle. Payton likes versatile receivers that can play in the slot, and Jeudy consistently does well with this. In addition, Jeudy steadily increased his target share from year to year and ended the 2022 season earning a 20.8% target share.  It is not unrealistic to expect a modest 2% increase in target share for him with this Payton/Lombardi-led offense. 

 

What have you done for me lately?

With all this said, there are many reasons for optimism heading into 2023 and beyond. He finished 2022 strong. His quarterback started throwing him more  catchable balls, illustrated in the picture below provided by: @fantasyptsdata

INSERT PIC HERE

Jeudy managed 67 receptions for 972 yards and finished as the WR22 (PPR) despite being in one of the league’s worst offenses. It’s worth noting that he missed 2 games of the season. Had he played a full 17-game schedule, he would’ve been pacing for 81  receptions for 1180 yards. In the final stretch of 2022, Jeudy developed a connection with Russell Wilson, which separated him from Courtland Sutton and cemented himself as the true alpha receiver for the Broncos.  

Finally, in Jeudy’s last 6 games of 2022, he was the WR6 in PPR. When healthy and on the field last season, Jeudy averaged 7.5 targets per game in games he didn’t leave injured. In the last 5 games last year, he averaged 8.2 targets and finished as a top 3 receiver in 2 out of those 5. To cap it off, Jeudy finished 2022 with one of the best games of his career going for 154 yards in receiving, a career high. All of this should be foreshadowing big things for him in 2023 and beyond.

 

Verdict 

Before this new injury, I was in on Jeudy; I had him aggressively projected for 85 receptions for 1200 yards and 8 TDs right around WR14 in 2023. With this said,  even if he returns in Week 4, there will certainly be a dip in production, limiting his full production potential to roughly week 6. If Jeudy can bounce back and stay healthy for the remainder of the season, I see a strong finish to 2023, similar to how he finished  2022. If Jeudy can get 12 games played at full health, he should finish the season with around 68 receptions for 900 yards and 5 yards, putting him right around where he finished last year as the WR22. Here at Dynasty Pros, we have him ranked at WR23  in Dynasty Startup, right around where I think he should be placed, especially after this news. At this stage, I am still in on Jeudy long-term, but this injury has taken him down a couple of notches for me. Jeudy is still only 24 and there are 5 to 7 years of fantasy production ahead of him. If Jeudy is on any of your dynasty teams, please don’t go selling him for pennies on the dollar. His value just took a plummet, and you won’t get a proper return. I would suggest riding out this wave and holding on for dear life! Jeudy’s value will only increase, as he gets healthy. With Sean Payton, the new captain leading the ship, it’s worth holding on to see what kind of treasures he can discover.  

 

BUY /HOLD

Dynasty Dilemma: Skyy Moore

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Dynasty Dilemma

Skyy Moore 

 

With a rebel yell, the Kansas City Chiefs cried out Skyy Moore! Skyy Moore was the  54th pick in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Many thought that he would be the immediate replacement for the recently departed Tyreek Hill. He crept up in the first round of most rookie drafts last summer, so expectations were Skyy high. In retrospect, these were lofty expectations for this day 2 draft pick coming out of  Western Michigan. To add to this, getting accustomed to Andy Reid’s offense is a  tough feat for the most seasoned veteran, let alone a small school rookie. Moore’s rookie season left many thinking he was a bust. Recently, there has been some buzz coming out of the Chiefs camp, word is that the Chiefs are excited about Moore. This hype is not just coming from the beat writers, it’s also coming from the likes of Andy Reid and  Patrick Mahomes, and when these two speak, we should be paying attention.  Perhaps, people jumped on the hype train a season too early? Should we be giving  Skyy Moore a pass for his lackluster rookie season? Let’s dive in.  

 

Reasons to Sell 

Rookie Blues 

Entering the 2022 season, expectations were high, anyone who had any shares of  Skyy Moore last year was feeling pretty sour after an uninspiring rookie campaign.  Moore had difficulties getting on the field consistently illustrated by his measly 22  receptions for 250 yards on the season. The more concerning number, Moore played all 17 games but was only able to earn a 30% snap share, topping out in week 12  with a 46% share. Early on in the 2022 season, Moore struggled to run proper routes, frequently finding himself on another page from his pivot Mahomes. Moore wasn’t where he needed to be on a consistent basis, highlighted by his low 5.6%  target share. Moore hardly made it on the field in the first 9 games. When Juju Smith-Schuster missed 1 game and left another early last season, Moore was active but couldn’t get on the field enough to capitalize on the opportunity to earn more playing time. Moore’s snap share averaged 33% in the time that Smith-Schuster missed. The Chiefs were clearly reluctant to give Moore those important opportunities last season and there is a possibility that this could spill over into  2023 and beyond.   

 

Working Against the Odds 

Coming off an impressive senior year at Western Michigan where he totaled 92  receptions for 1283 yards and 10 touchdowns, you would think he would have been more NFL-ready. The reality is, that small school wide receivers often take more time to develop because the talent and competition aren’t as strong when comparing the talent and competition the bigger schools face. Additionally, it is rare (25%) for a  wide receiver selected in round 2 or later to finish as a top 24 wide receiver, if they failed to do so in their rookie season. The odds seem to be continuously stacked against Moore. The Chiefs also seem to have their doubts about Moore; they added Kadarius Toney late in 2022 and also used another day 2 pick on Rashee Rice this past draft. Furthermore, even if Skyy Moore can elevate his game and become the  Chiefs WR1 is it even that coveted of a roll? The Chiefs spread the ball around, and changed their offense last year, virtually making all of their receiving options outside of Travis Kelce replaceable. The fear I have is that, if Moore does indeed take the WR1 role, there will always be a possibility that if Moore doesn’t produce, a  veteran who can step up and be a consistent contributor will replace him. 

 

Reasons to Buy 

Seizing the Opportunity 

The chips have fallen in Skyy’s direction this offseason; hopefully, he can capitalize on them. Early this pre-season there was buzz coming out of Chiefs camp that Andy  Reid was endorsing Toney as their number 1 wide receiver. An early camp injury has extinguished that flame. Since then, all reports coming out of training camp have been glowing reviews for Skyy Moore. He is playing every snap with the first-team offense and every snap in two wide receiver sets. Furthermore, there are 135 vacant targets left behind by recently departed Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman. In addition, Moore has found himself playing quite a bit from the slot, the vacant role,  played last year by Smith-Schuster. If Moore can solidify himself in this valuable starting slot role, he will be seeing similar playing time and targets as Smith-Schuster did last season. The Chiefs have a talented wide receiver room and at any given moment one of them could emerge and take hold of that WR1 role. Marquez  Valdez-Scantling with his 81 targets returns as one of the projected two starting wide receivers. I think the Chiefs will take the same approach as they did with  Moore with recently drafted Rachee Rice and ease him into this complicated offense this season. Kadarius Toney the often injured, gadget play guru will always be a  looming threat but I cannot see him staying healthy long enough to carve out a big enough role. Then there is Richie James who I think is the biggest threat to Moore’s current role with the team. The Chiefs brought him as an insurance policy. Moore should be able to rise above and take this role. Looking past this year into 2024 and beyond, I project Moore having a strong 2023 season and seizing one of the starting wide receiver positions alongside fellow round 2 pick Rashee Rice. I see the Chiefs moving on from often-injured Kadarius Toney and veteran Marquez Valdez Scantling once their contracts expire. After all, the Chiefs did use important draft capital to bring these two young wide receivers in, and I believe their long-term plan is to have both Rice and Moore be their long-term starters. Travis Kelce will one day slow down and leave even more targets for these two young wide receivers to gobble up. Looking ahead to the next five years, I envision there will be plenty of targets and opportunities for both of these young wide receivers to be top 36 producers. 

  

Patrick and his Mahomey 

When Patrick Mahomes goes on record and endorses a player we have to pay attention. The chemistry between Moore and Mahomes seems to be building. Very few quarterbacks threw the ball more than the 648 times Mahomes did last year. I  can’t see this number going down anytime soon, a great outlook for the future of the Chiefs’ young wide receivers. In addition, word coming out of Chiefs camp is that  Andy Reid has been impressed with the growth Moore has done in the offseason.  Finally, Moore has come into this season with more confidence in the team and has more confidence in himself. Moore was not a consistent player last season,  however, he did run a complex route tree for a rookie, lining up in multiple spots.  There were going to be growing pains no doubt, as Moore learned this complicated  Chiefs system. With a strong offseason, a fantastic camp, and newly affirmed confidence from the Chiefs camp, all signs are indicating that these growing pains are in the past.      

Verdict 

 

Perhaps, Skyy Moore should have been considered a long-term development project when the Chiefs drafted him last year. It was a lot to ask of a small school, second-round rookie to jump in and learn an Andy Reid offense with the expectation of producing as a WR3 or better. I see this as an opportunity to buy Skyy Moore in this spot. He is being drafted in dynasty startups around the WR54 as a WR5 with WR4  upside. I see Moore finishing as a low-end WR3 this year and beyond. I envision Moore finishing similar to how Smith-Schuster finished last season with  15% target share in this offense as a starter. That would put Moore around the 100-target range if the Chiefs continue to pass at the same volume. My prediction for  Skyy Moore this season is 75 receptions for 950 yards and 4 TDs. This would put 

him in the WR3 range with WR2 upside, moving him into the WR30 range in the dynasty heading into 2024. 

 

BUY

Dynasty Dilemma: George Pickens

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Dynasty Dilemma

 George Pickens 

 

George Pickens, a first-round talent, but then, questions about his character, and a season-ending ACL injury in his senior year, caused him to slip down the draft board.  Selected in the second round, 52nd overall in the 2022 NFL draft. George Pickens is a polarizing player known for his big-time plays and contested catches. It is rare for a  week to go by without seeing one of those highlight reel grabs. Pickens, is a real boom-or-bust player who has the fantasy community split over his future outlook. It is hard not to be captivated by the allure of these big-time plays. Coming off a nice rookie season, in which he hauled in 52 receptions for 801 yards, and 4 touchdowns on 85  targets. On the surface, these are impressive stats for a rookie, especially when you take into account that he finished ahead of fellow teammate, and target hog Diontae  Johnson in PPR scoring last year. A second-year wide receiver with his dynasty value climbing this offseason, is this rise in value merited? Let’s dive in.  

Reasons to Buy 

Going Balls Deep 

Pickens is your typical old-school traditional split-end X receiver, he’s big, strong,  fast, has great body control, and has a mammoth catch radius. I can see why people are so captivated by George Pickens. Pickens is a maestro of catching deep balls.  Ranked 7th in the NFL last year with 28 deep routes, one in every 3 balls thrown to  Pickens was considered a deep target. Pickens’ Average Depth of Target (aDOT) was a head-turning 15.6, ranking only behind two similar profiling receivers, Deebo  Samuel and A.J Brown. Not the worst company to be in. To add to this, Pickens was a  contested catch guru ranking 13th in contested catch rate (57.1%). You’d be hard-pressed to find a football enthusiast who hasn’t seen one of his weekly highlight reel catches on Sportscenter.    

Golden Opportunity 

Last year, only Garrett Wilson ran more routes as a rookie than George Pickens.  Pickens finished the year with 94% route participation, which was good for a top  16-finish league-wide. His 74% snap share was another great number for a rookie. If  Pickens can get himself open in the short and intermediate routes more often, the numbers would suggest a season 2 breakout. In addition, Kenny Pickett is heading into his 2nd year and will come into 2023 with more confidence, Hopefully, that can turn into improved chemistry between Pickens and Pickett. Pickett was his  most accurate when targeting Pickens with a QB rating of 109.3 vs. 54.8 when targeting  Diontae Johnson. Pickens consistently was the more efficient weapon in the Steeler’s 

offense last season. Additionally, Johnson is only under contract through 2024, so Pickens has a golden opportunity to seize the #1 role with Johnson’s window with the Steelers rapidly closing. Furthermore, the Steelers made some upgrades this offseason to their O line by drafting OT Broderick Jones and signing G Isaac Seumalo. These new pieces will hopefully give Pickett more time in the pocket to open things up to find Pickens more often. Finally, with all this said, word coming out of Steelers camp is that Pickens has been running a more complex route tree. We will most likely be seeing Pickens run routes other than his typical go routes, slants, and hitches. If Pickens can create better separation in the short and intermediate routes he should see an uptick in target share and production in 2023 and beyond. There is plenty of opportunity for Pickens to cement himself as the true Steeler alpha for many years to come.  

 

Reasons to Sell 

Lacks Consistency 

As previously noted, Kenny Pickett has been much more efficient as a passer when targeting Pickens, exemplified by his superior QB rating compared to when he is targeting the other Steeler wide receivers. This raises an intriguing question, Why was Picken’s target share of 15.6% so lackluster? Pickens played 12 games last year where he didn’t register more than 3 catches. Considering his 94% route participation, these are alarming numbers. In addition to this, his 1.38 yards per route run is horrendous when you consider his aDOT is sitting at 15.6. It is clear that Pickens isn’t the first read, or even the second, unless he is 40 yards downfield The ball simply isn’t going Pickens’s way often enough. What’s more, to me, the most concerning part of Pickens’s game, is his inability to get open and create separation.  His route tree has been very basic because of this. As Matt Harmon has illustrated in his Reception Perception, Pickens does poorly vs. zone coverage (68.3 success rate)  and even worse yet, vs. man coverage (64.9%).  These are very poor numbers,  especially when compared to the other rookies that were in this class. Lastly, it is rare (25%) for a wide receiver selected in round 2 or later to finish as a top 24 wide receiver, if they failed to do so in their rookie season. I’d be more optimistic of  Pickens becoming a consistent top-24 receiver had he been a first-round pick.   

D’oh Canada’s Offense 

One would think that having consistency in the coaching staff would be a good thing for a young wide receiver. I think, however, the worst thing the Steelers did this offseason was keep Matt Canada as their offensive coordinator. Unfortunately, I  think the Steelers would need to take a huge step back for them to move on from him. As I noted earlier, I think the Steelers will take a small step forward this year offensively saving Canada’s job once again. His heavy run, low passing volume offense simply can’t sustain two top 24 wide receivers. Last year the Steelers only 

passed the ball 569 times, This ranks well within the bottom half of the league, slim  Pickens if you ask me. Still, I expect Pickett to make another leap in his 2nd year,  however, I can’t see the Steelers passing more than 600 times this season, which doesn’t bode well for Pickett finishing as a top-15 quarterback that many expect.  This doesn’t leave many extra targets to go to Pickens when we consider the whooping  27% target Diontae Johnson commands. Even though Pickens finished ahead of  Diontae Johnson last year in PPR scoring, it is not a reflection of how the season played out. Diontae has been a target hog throughout his career. Johnson is constantly open and has proven to consistently create separation. Johnson is Pickett’s first read and undoubtedly the Steeler’s #1 receiver. Finally, the addition of  Allen Robinson is worth noting, adding this seasoned veteran adds a reliable outlet in the slot for this young quarterback. It’s also worth mentioning, that Pickens came off the field 50% of the time when the Steelers were running 11 personnel in their recent pre-season game vs. the Buccaneers. This is something worth keeping an eye on because if Pickens is being taken off the field more often this year it will be hard for him to return value on his ADP. 

 

Verdict

Flashy big plays are great, but it’s risky to solely rely on them on a weekly basis.   Unless Pickens can earn consistent targets on short and intermediate routes, it will not result in consistent fantasy production. The big play ability makes Pickens an attractive sell for me. There will surely be someone in your league who thinks he will break out and become a top 20-dynasty wide receiver. It would take a lot of things bouncing Pickens’s way to fulfill such lofty expectations. With all this said, in my opinion, unfortunately, the Steelers simply don’t pass enough for this to become a reality in the foreseeable future. Let one of your league mates buy into this over-hype. There is such a wide range of where people view and draft Pickens in dynasty startups. I’ve seen him go as high as the WR13 and as far down as the WR42. This large variance is intriguing to me, and one that I would be looking to take advantage of immediately. Pickens finished as the WR40 in 2022, but his dynasty value rose to around WR34 on many platforms. I think WR34 is right around his ceiling, and I’d be trying to sell him to a league mate who views him as a top 20 dynasty wide receiver asset. I’d wait for one of those highlight reel catches to pop up on Sportcenter, then put him on the trade block. As the trade offers come in surely one of them will be right for the Pickens. 

 

Sell 

Dynasty Dilemma: Travis Etienne 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Travis Etienne

 

What are we doing with Travis Etienne? Well, on the surface, Etienne may look like a lock to bring you three or more years of peak top 10 fantasy running back production. Travis  Etienne is a first round selection, and  the 25th overall pick in the 2021 NFL  Draft.  Previously, Etienne had a decorated college career at Clemson University. In 2019, he rushed for 1,614 yards. During his senior year in  2020, Etienne focused on improving his receiving game by totaling 48 receptions for 588 yards. Both were, and continue to be, single season running back records for Clemson. To add to this, he’s coming off an impressive first year in the NFL, in which he rushed for 5 touchdowns,  1125 yards, and added another 316 yards through the air. All of this would suggest your desired outcome on the horizon, would it not? The  Jaguars, however, made some  intriguing moves this offseason to indicate that they might have different plans for Etienne, and all of us dynasty managers. This offseason has produced many storylines in the fantasy football community, but maybe none as controversial as the  Travis Etienne topic. No matter where you stand on this, I am going to help you navigate through this complicated process. Is Travis Etienne truly the elite dynasty asset he is being ranked as? Let’s dive in.  

 

(@stx8196 youtube) 

 

REASON TO BUY

 

Big Play Ability

There is nothing like watching your stud running back break off a week winning run to help you clinch the  week. Well, if you were a Travis Etienne owner last year, it happened quite a bit. Remember that 62-yard td run against the Texans in week 17?  Etienne is a big play waiting to happen due to the fascinating medley of his size, speed and burst. That run won a lot of fantasy managers championships last year. 

 

Efficient Rusher 

Etienne undoubtedly and consistently capitalized on play opportunities last season as a runner. He was very efficient as a runner ranking in the top 12 in the following important rushing metrics; Yards Per Carry (4th), Rushing Yards Over Expectation (3rd), Broken Tackle %(11th), Yards per Touch (10th), and Breakaway Run Rate (12th). These are impressive stats coming from a young running back’s first year in the league.  These numbers could have looked even better had Etienne been handed the keys to the backfield prior to week 5. Fantasy managers were excited for his future when the Jaguars decided to part ways with the undrafted rookie darling and starting running back James Robinson. That is when we were able to see Etienne’s efficiency as a runner.  

 

 

REASON TO SELL

Now that you’re salivating over him, it’s time to reign you in a little and give you some cooling facts about the clouded destiny of Travis Etienne.

 

Etienne’s Role with the Team 

There were some gaps in Etienne’s game that surely alarmed Pederson and his staff. Etienne struggled with pass blocking last season illustrated by giving up the 3rd most pressures out of the qualifying running backs. He ranked 17th in pass blocking grade  last year (Player Profiler). This is an abhorrent statistic for a potential workhorse back. If the Jaguars want to keep pace with the Juggernauts of the AFC, this number would need to improve immediately.   

It’s worth noting that Etienne was allocated the Lion’s share of red zone work for the Jaguars, ranking 9th in red zone opportunities and 5th in rushes inside the 10 yard line. One would think these outcomes would translate into fantasy gold, however it only turned into 4 red zone touchdowns for the year. Unfortunately, this is not a great conversion rate in the most important part of the field.  

Finally, Tank Bigbsy’s arrival decidedly clouded the backfield even further. Bigsby is 6’0 and 210 pounds who consistently proves to be a true power up the middle runner with  great hands. These are invaluable  skills to have in the red zone. Did I mention Bigsby can pass protect? Whether you want to accept it or not, Tank will inevitably take on some of Etienne’s workload. I envision Bigsby coming in on 3rd down and also taking some, if not all, of the goal line work. I would also predict that Bigsby would  get the odd series to spell Etienne.  Factoring all of this in, it will be hard to see Etienne get the same assignments he got in 2022. 

 

Urban Meyer vs. Doug Pederson 

Early on, the future looked bright for the Jaguars heading into the 2021 season. The team had a new head coach, their franchise quarterback secured, and had drafted their RB1. It all came to a standstill, however, when Etienne suffered a season-ending  lisfranc foot injury during training camp in his rookie season. Thirteen games into his first season as head coach, Urban Meyer and his regime came to a crashing halt. Etienne never played a regular season snap for Urban Meyer. Subsequently, in came Doug Pederson as a Superbowl winning pedigree coach known for his use of RBBC. The red flags are everywhere now with the addition of Tank Bigbsy. Etienne’s game as an every down workhorse back is clearly in peril. 

 

Target Share 

Above all, Etienne was touted as a  great pass catcher, and his stats from his senior year at Clemson proved it. He also did well when given the role as a pass catcher last year with an above average 9 YPC. The problem, however, is his 7.8% target share.  Some people might think that his target share will only go up, but I find  that hard to believe for many factors. First of all, the Jaguars extended Evan Engram this offseason by investing heavily in him. The Jaguars also brought in Calvin Ridley, who commands a 25% career target share. This WR room is talented, and Ridley only adds to the target competition. Last but not least, is the fact that Trevor Lawrence isn’t a check-down quarterback ranking in the top 10 of QB’s who checked-down the least in 2022. All this to say, that it will take a lot of positive things bouncing Etienne’s way for his target share to actually increase. 

 

VERDICT

At this stage of the game, Etienne is  being drafted in dynasty startups  around the RB10. He finished last year as the RB18. At this stage, we are drafting Etienne at his ceiling, which is a rich price when we consider all of these variables. I would be comfortable having Etienne on my dynasty team as a RB2, but we are drafting him as a RB1. The talent is there, but without some new advantageous breaks, I can’t see him  return the value as a true RB1. At this stage and in my opinion, I am viewing Etienne as a high end RB2 with low end RB1 potential. Hopefully, there is a league mate in your alliance that still views Etienne as an elite RB1 so that you can upgrade him into a true elite fantasy asset before it’s too late.

 

SELL