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Dynasty Dilemma: Tyler Lockett

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Dynasty Dilemma: Tyler Lockett

 

 

Under the coaching of Pete Carroll, the Seahawk's offense has always been steady. In recent years they have been able to reach the postseason but have consistently failed to get to that NFC championship. With 2023 NFL draft picks Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) at receiver and Zack Charbonnet at running back, the Seahawks are looking to add depth to this offense and provide competition to start. Everyone knows that the WR1 on this Seahawks offense is DK Metcalf, but now, with the addition of JSN, people are questioning the share of targets that the current WR2, Tyler Lockett, might receive. I am here to put these questions to rest and show you the value that Tyler Lockett brings. 

 

 

REASONS TO BUY

Consistency

Tyler Lockett was drafted in 2015 by the Seattle Seahawks. Since 2019, Tyler Lockett has put up four consecutive seasons finishing with over 1000 receiving yards, nine touchdowns, and over 100 targets, with DK Metcalf as the primary receiver. Tyler Lockett is being taken 2-3 rounds after wide receivers like Jerry Jeudy and Mike Williams, averaging 100 fewer yards and two fewer touchdowns than Tyler Lockett. He finished as WR13 and has over a 70% catch rate which is better than players like Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Christian Kirk, and Keenan Allen. Tyler Lockett is being taken 3-4 rounds after Chargers WR Kennan Allen, who finished with 400 fewer yards, five fewer touchdowns, and 20 fewer receptions. To add to his incredible catch rate, Tyler Lockett has a 2% drop rate on passes 0-9 yards and a 9.1% drop rate on passes 20+ yards with a 0% drop rate from passes between 10-19 yards. 

 

STATS VIA PFF: 

Player:Rec. Yards Touchdowns Targets/Rec Overall NFL Rank: WROverall ADP/Position  
Tee Higgins 1,0297109/7420 31 overall 

15th WR 

Keenan Allen 752489/66946 Overall 

20th WR 

Jerry Jeudy9726100/672053 overall 

22nd WR 

Mike Williams 895493/631863 overall

27th WR 

Tyler Lockett 1,0339117/842273 overall 

31st WR

 

Every one of the four wide receivers listed above averaged fewer touchdowns, fewer yards, fewer targets, and fewer receptions. Still, all managed to be ranked above Tyler Lockett and are taken above Tyler Lockett in drafts. Keenan Allen is older than Tyler Lockett, but people continue to draft him despite his age. Tyler Lockett is younger and more efficient while still being the WR2 in Seattle. The last column of this chart illustrates that Lockett has the highest ADP at 73rd overall and the 31st WR but has the best statistics out of someone like Tee Higgins, who is ranked 15 WRs above. 

 

Good Offense

Geno Smith finished as the QB5 last season with over 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. Kenneth Walker and Tyler Lockett shared the team lead with nine touchdowns. Considering that Tyler Lockett is still seen as a WR2, he finishes with more touchdowns than DK Metcalf and only has 15 fewer receiving yards, even when DK has 24 more targets. If anything, the stats show that Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf share the role as WR1, but DK has an ADP of 36th overall, whereas Tyler Lockett's ADP is 73rd overall. Pete Carroll is also an established coach, and with the help of Shane Waldron (Offensive coordinator), the Seahawks continue to fight for the top of the NFC West. 

 

 

 

REASONS TO SELL

 

Production

Well, everyone is thinking the same thing… Won't Tyler Lockett's numbers diminish with the addition of JSN? Undoubtedly, the Seahawks have a plan for JSN because they would not waste their first-round pick on a WR they have no intention of playing. Pro Football Focus (PFF) has JSN ranked as the WR1 coming out of this draft class, and he produced over 1,550 receiving yards and nine touchdowns his sophomore year at Ohio State. There has also been recent news on his strides during training camp, and Pete Carroll likes what he sees. "We're looking for the spots we can put him in, how to move him around and see how much he can handle. There's nothing that's holding him back. He's hitting it off with Geno well right now." (Pete Carroll)." It is no doubt that JSN is a talented athlete who knows the game of football. Pete Carroll said they are looking for a spot for him, indicating that their two WRs are already set and looking to utilize his talent in a different location. JSN will be a part of this offense, but Tyler Lockett will not lose his share of production. 

 

Age

Tyler Lockett is now 30 years old and was drafted in 2015. Everyone knows football is a demanding sport to play as you continue to get older. One prime example of this is Adam Thielen. Adam Thielen is 32 years old, turning 33 this year. The height of Thielen's career was seen in 2016-2018 when he reached the 1000-yard receiving mark, but once he got to 2019, he began to fall off and reach the 500-700-yard receiving area. Tyler Lockett could see a similar situation where his age could cause him not to produce the numbers you are looking for. However, Adam Thielen's production was cut short due to the selection of Justin Jefferson in 2020, which moved Thielen to WR2. 

 

VERDICT

All in all, even with the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the crowded receiving core, Tyler Lockett will be the one WR whose production will not be affected. For the last four years, even with DK Metcalf, Lockett has been consistent with his 1000-yard seasons and 8+ touchdowns. Even with JSN, I am confident his workload will not diminish, and he will be the one WR staying consistent. Considering this is a Dynasty League, I would buy Tyler Lockett. The Dynasty Pros Trade Calculator believes Tyler Locket can be traded for 2024 late 2nd or Early 3rd. At that price, you can't 'smash' accept quickly enough!


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Dynasty Dilemma: Daniel Jones 

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Dynasty Dilemma: Daniel Jones

 

The New York Giants, an organization that has received mixed opinions over the last few years while having their success questioned is now on the rise. Finishing 9-7-1 and reaching the postseason, the Giants have made incredible strides to become a top contender in the NFC East. However, if you know anything about Fantasy Football and pay any attention to the waiver wire, you have probably noticed a lot of Giants players that go undrafted or that are being overlooked. What if I told you, you could get away with the steal of the draft at Quarterback with the Giants very own, Daniel Jones. 

 

REASON TO BUY

 

Rushing Upside

Daniel Jones finished 2022 with his best stat line since his draft in 2019 with 3,205 passing yards, 708 rushing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, and 7 rushing touchdowns finishing as QB9.. Daniel Jones had his longest run last year of 80 yards and puts him in the top 5 for longest rushes. However, he is being overlooked and many rankings have him placed at QB14 behind quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and Deshaun Watson. One of Daniel Jones best attributes as a Fantasy Quarterback is his ability to run the ball. Daniel Jones finished 5th in rushing last year with an average of 5.9 YPC. Jalen Hurts is the only quarterback in this top 5 who has a less YPC than Daniel Jones with 4.6. Also, Jalen Hurts only accumulated 52 more rushing yards than Daniel Jones but also had 45 more attempts. Another quarterback who gets drafted before Daniel Jones is Dak Prescott who only ran for 182 yards and 1 rushing touchdown compared to Daniel Jones and his 700+ yards and 7 rushing touchdowns. 

 

Added Weapons

Daniel Jones finished with 3,205 passing yards and 15 touchdowns last year, finishing as QB15 when it came to passing. He was above quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, and Kyler Murray who have all been taken several rounds before. To add, the Giants have made some offseason acquisitions like Parris Campbell, Darren Waller, Cole Beasley, and rookie Jalin Hyatt to support Daniel Jones.The biggest of all these pickups is Darren Waller and rookie Jalen Hyatt. One of Darren Waller’s best years came in 2020 where he had 1,196 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns, 74% catch rate and finished second among tight ends. Jalin Hyatt also has a strong history with finishing 1st in the SEC with 1,267 receiving yards, 1st in the SEC with 15 receiving touchdowns, and 5th in the SEC with 18.9 receiving yards per reception. Now that Daniel Jones has these lethal weapons to throw to, it only adds to his value compared to other quarterbacks. One quarterback who is taken higher than Daniel Jones is Justin Fields. NFL.com had Justin Fields ranked as QB13 compared to Daniel Jones at QB18. Justin Fields finished with 1000 less passing yards, 6 more interceptions, 10 more fumbles, and a 60.4 percent completion compared to Daniel Jones’s 67.2. However, Justin Fields gets selected 3-4 rounds before.

 

Trusted Coaching Staff

Not only does Daniel Jones now have a strong receiving core and incredible running ability he is now under a new coaching staff who trusts in Daniel Jones’s ability to win games. Giving Daniel Jones a 4 year $160 million dollar contract illustrates the confidence that Brian Daboll and the Giants have in him to win. Now let's speak about Brian Daboll. Prior to accepting the job with the Giants, he was the Bill’s offensive coordinator from 2018-2021 and worked with Josh Allen. In 2018 Josh Allen finished ranked as QB 22, but through the coaching of Brian Daboll he finished as QB9 in 2019 to then QB1 in 2020. It is clear that Brian Daboll knows how to run an offense and utilize the quarterback. Through those 3 years, Josh Allen went from 2,074 yards in 2018 to then 4,544 yards in 2020. Not to mention, in 2018 Josh Allen was averaging 17.2 FPPG which was under Brian Daboll’s first year coaching. However, in 2020, as QB1 he averaged 24.2 FPPG. Similarly, in Daniel Jone’s first year with Brian Daboll he averaged 17.8 FPPG, and the pattern shows this will rise. 

 

 

REASON TO SELL

 

Saquon Barkley

Now let us be a bit more reasonable. In the past few weeks, the Giants have had major controversy with their star running back Saquon Barkley by not coming to terms on a contract. Saquon Barkley is the heart and soul of the New York offense and averaged 18 carries a game last season finishing with over 1300 yards and 10 touchdowns. There is no doubt that there is strong chemistry between this elite Running back and Daniel Jones. In a recent podcast, Saquon listed possible options for himself during this season which included the option of him not showing up and allowing the Giants to realize how much he means to that offense. If this were to come true it is no doubt Daniel Jones will struggle to facilitate this offense and not produce the numbers that he is projected to. Last year Saquon Received 76 targets which was more than Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Daniel Bellinger, and Wan’Dale Robinson who are the current Giants WR core. This reliance on Saquon Barkley targets could hurt Daniel Jones’ ability to keep up a similar level of production. 

 

Chemistry and Decision Making

Another reason to sell on Daniel Jones is the lack of chemistry between him and his skill players and his decision making. Many analysts have highlighted that Daniel Jones’ ability to make decisions at the moment has been slow. This is apparent whether it be to choose the right receiver, run into a wall of defenders, or even just hold the ball for too long. The Giants have acquired many weapons which gives Daniel Jones a wider variety of targets to throw to but until their connection is established on the field, it is uncertain whether or not he will produce consistent numbers. 

 

VERDICT

Daniel Jones is that late round sleeper everyone is looking for and is someone who I recommend you definitely buy. Given that he has a new receiving core and a strong coaching staff, he is on the path to definitely produce greater numbers.Trusting that he will work further

with his offensive squad, this offense is on the road to be one of the top NFC East contenders. Known for his excellent ability to run the ball, he will take charge of this offense and look to push another 3,200 passing yards with a 1000 yard rushing season. This could be the transformation year that leads to Daniel Jones to being a top 10 quarterback and not slept on.

 

BUY