Matt Kelley

Contender & Pretender Trade Targets: 

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Contender & Pretender Trade Targets: 

By Matt Kelley

We’re headed into the thick of week 7 this fantasy season, so you have a pretty good idea if you’re trending towards competing for a dynasty title or if you should be planning more for 2021. Here, I’ll look at four players you can target as either a contender, pretender, or possibly both. 

LA Chargers, TE, Hunter Henry:  One of the most difficult positions to lock down in fantasy, generally speaking, is TE. In finding success at the TE position, I look for a few key things: Are they on the field? Are they running routes? Are they connected to a good QB? Is their team utilizing them correctly? 

Hunter Henry is currently on the field for nearly 86% of snaps for the Chargers, ran 148 routes (good for 10th most), averaging nearly seven targets per game, and he’s tied to Justin Herbert who has looked incredible in his limited time taking over at the QB helm. As a nice added bonus, the Chargers are deploying Henry from the slot creating quite the mismatch on almost 29% of Henry’s snaps. Henry has only caught one TD thus far this season, but the arrow is pointing up for Henry in most every category. Henry does need to curtail his drops a bit, but that hasn’t stopped Herbert from targeting him or resulted in him coming off the field. Henry is approaching top 5 territory at the TE position, and you should snag him now before there’s a death grip on him from those that have him rostered already. Henry’s value is at a low enough point that you can target him as both a pretender or contender. 

Baltimore Ravens, RB, J.K. Dobbins: I wrote about Dobbins extensively leading up to the season and how I thought he would usurp Gus Edwards with relative ease and eventually Mark Ingram as well. Well, this taking a bit longer than I expected, and the Ravens are content with dividing up this backfield with all three of these backs. That being said, I lean towards trading Dobbins if you’re a pretender and building towards 2021. As much as we all want to see Dobbins get the bulk of opportunities, it may be later than we all want and if you’re a contender, I’m not sure you can afford to wait unless you can get by with him on your bench. That said, Mark Ingram looks like he’s hit a downturn and maybe a step behind his career pace. Ingram has been on the field 30% of the Ravens snaps, had 36% of the Ravens rush share, and is 32nd in rush yards with 225. He’s had two runs over 15 yards and evaded only 8 tackles. Dobbins has actually been on the field more than Ingram but has had less of the rush opportunities (25.8%). Despite that, Dobbins has three runs over 15 yards, has evaded nine tackles, and is the clearly superior pass catcher. I still believe #DobbinsSZN is a matter of when and not if. If you have the resources as someone shooting for 2021, this may be the best opportunity to trade for Dobbins. Should Ingram be out extended time or reinjure his ankle, the door may well slam shut on the opportunity to trade for J.K. Dobbins at his current value. 

Miami Dolphins, RB, Myles Gaskin: Nope, not Jordan Howard. Nope, not Matt Brieda. Myles Gaskin is the Miami Dolphins running back to roster and the running back to trade for as a contender. Does Gaskin have value past 2020? I’m...not entirely sure. Which is why I’m suggesting him for a win now type team and why you may not have to give up all that much to get him on your roster. Gaskin has been on the field for the Dolphins for 65% of their snaps and had 63% of their carries even after having single digit carries over the first two weeks. Gaskin has seen 29 targets for 27 total catches and 182 receiving yards. Gaskin has a workhorse share of the rushes and targets. The only downside (potentially) is the Dolphins making the shift to rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa this week, and we just don’t know what this offense will look like in terms of Tua running, dumping off passes, and being challenged by defenses. This is definitely a point to consider when trading for Gaskin and possibly creating a bit of value. I still like the potential for Gaskin to provide depth and help nudge a contender to a dynasty title. 

N.Y. Jets, WR, Jamison Crowder: Am I following up with recommending you trade for a Jet right after a Miami Dolphin? Yes, yes I am. It’s 2020, just embrace it. Crowder is an absolute PPR machine though, and much like Robert Woods of the L.A. Rams, he is a constant overlooked value. Even with Adam Gase as the coach, and even with Joe Flacco occasionally throwing him passes, Crowder excels. The Jets have actually used Crowder in the best possible role, the slot. Crowder has seen 73% of his snaps come from the slot this season. Albeit in this offense, his target share is a whopping 31.5% (21.4% in the red zone). This is elite. He has 190 yards after the catch. This is also elite territory.  Crowder probably has the most value not only this season but also going forward from anyone on this list, but he’s worth it. His floor is incredibly safe every week and he finds the endzone, you're golden for the week. If you’re in contention for a dynasty title, go after Crowder. He won’t cost you as much as the Deandre Hopkins or Michael Thomas’ of the world, but he’ll give you a (nearly) bust proof option in your lineup week in and week out. 

Thrive Five Week 7

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Thrive Five Week 7

By Matt Kelley

Let’s start this week of NFL action off PROP-erly shall we and crush some props via our good friends at Thrive Fantasy. Enter our code DYNASTYPROS when you sign-up and receive an instant deposit match up to $50! (min $20 deposit) #PropUp    

Kenny Golladay @ ATL O/U 4.5 receptions: O=80 pts. , U= 120 pts. 

Does this prop sound familiar? Well we’ve looked to it in the last couple of weeks, last week with Adam Thielen against this very Falcons defense, and missed, but trust the process. Kenny Golladay has only had four receptions in each of the last two weeks and generally speaking, Golladay is more of a yardage guy than a volume guy, but against this Falcons secondary, Kenny G is one of my favorite players of the week. The Falcons have no one capable of matching up with Golladay, Atlanta is giving up everything on defense, and they were just torched by rookie Justin Jefferson last week (Thielen was close). I’m sticking with the process, I’m picking on this Falcons defense again and building my floor on this slate with the over. 

Josh Jacobs v TB O/U 85.5 rush+rec yard: O= 90 pts. , U= 110 pts. 

If you listen to my podcast The Pick Is In on Friday’s we talk DFS and you know Aaron Jones was my sit of the week last week. Why does that matter here? The Packers played this same Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense who is incredibly stingy against RB’s for the better part of 22 games. Jones had 10 carries for 15 yards and three catches for 26. The Bucs are allowing 64.3 yards rushing per game. Josh Jacobs has had at least 70 yards rushing in all but one game this season and at least 73 total yards in every game. The most yards by any single player rushing against the Bucs this season is 59 by Christan McCaffery in week 2. This is an uphill battle for Jacobs. The Raiders will also be without OT Trent Brown. There’s quite a bit of trepidation about lines in this game with the uncertainty on the offensive line availability for Las Vegas, but COVID tests to this point have been coming back negative and the Raiders should have most of their offensive line.  It’ll be close for Jacobs as he’s seen an uptick in passing work, but give me the under. 

Baker Mayfield v CLE O/U 0.5 INT’s: O= 70 pts. , U= 130 pts. 

Another familiar prop, another attempt to redeem a miss. Weeks ago we had this prop with Baker v. Dallas. He did not throw a pick in what was quite an odd game. That said, Baker has thrown two picks in each of his last two games. Grant you last week Baker wasn’t 100% and didn’t finish the game, but Browns coach Kevin Stefanski noted that Baker is still a bit sore coming into this week's game. When these two teams met earlier this season they combined for 65 points. Historically speaking, division games tend to score a bit less the second time around. Mayfield was picked off in that first meeting as well.  The Browns will probably want to make this the Kareem Hunt show as much as possible, but when the odds are swung this much towards the over, it’s not a place I want to get cute. I’ll take this over as another building block for the week. 

Drew Brees v CAR O/U 280.5 passing yards: O= 95 pts. , U= 105 pts. 

Do we like to pick on the Panthers defense for fantasy? Yup. Mostly their run defense though. The Panthers have allowed more than 240 passing yards just once this season (Justin Herbert). Drew Brees isn’t exactly a stranger to big games, especially at home. Historically his splits are notably better in a dome and at home. That said, we now know that he’ll once again be without star WR Michael Thomas and in the latter portion of this week WR Emmanuel Sanders was placed on COVID leave. Now Brees will be targeting Alvin Kamara (who is scary this week for fantasy, ALL the work), Tre’Quan Smith, Jared Cook, and...Marquez Callaway...maybe Taysom Hill? Options get thin real quick. It’s dangerous to bet against Brees at home, even with limited options, but I’m taking the under. 

Ryan Tannehill v PIT O/U 250.5 passing yards: O= 95 pts. , U= 105 pts. 

Whew, Ryan Tannehill. He has been playing absolutely lights out football as of late. So has this Pittsburgh Steelers defense. Clash of the Titans in this game (all of the pun intended). The Steelers are FAR more staunch against the run than the pass. Don’t get me wrong, this is a great unit, but if you’re going to beat the Steelers it’s going to be through the air. If anyone is capable of beating any defense it’s Derrick Henry, but even King Henry might have a tough time getting going against this front seven. The Titans will need to throw in this game that Vegas currently has projected for 50.5 total points. That combined with the Titans having given up 30 points in three of their last four contests. The danger  here is the efficiency that has been Tannehill for...well since he took over as QB in Tennessee. His TD% is once again over 7%. The mean in 2020 is 5%. There’s always the potential that Tannehill continues his work and gets 3 touchdowns on 240 yards, but I’ll push the over here with A.J. Brown being healthy, Corey Davis back in the lineup and the emergence of Jonnu Smith. 

 

Thrive Five: Week 6

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Thrive Five: Week 6

By Matt Kelley

Adam Thielen v ATL O/U 4.5 receptions: O= 80 pts. , U= 120 pts 

Last week I missed on this exact prop, only with George Kittle vs. the Miami Dolphins. Well, I’m back for revenge and smashing the over here with the Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen. The Vikings take on the Atlanta Falcons whose secondary has been absolutely decimated. The Falcons have given up at least six catches to five different WR in five games this season. Thielen has seen 23 targets from Kirk Cousins over the last two weeks. Short and sweet, this is my favorite floor play of the week.  OVER

Matthew Stafford @ JAX O/U 23.5 completions: O=105 pts. , U= 95 pts

So far this season Matthew Stafford has completed 83 of 137 pass attempts. His most completed passes in a single game over the first month is 24 (week 1 on 42 attempts). Based on the history I’m pretty hesitant to say over, but that’s where I’m leaning, here’s why: 

Vegas currently has the total point spread at 54.5 with the Lions being 3.5 point favorites on the road. Honestly, perhaps a little too much credit there towards Detroit who hasn’t been able to hold a lead this season. When I read this line though, I think of a shootout for two reasons. First, both defenses...have seen better days, let’s put it that way. Secondly, the Lions are struggling to find an identity running the ball this season. The Jags have the highest pass rate in the league and while Detroit’s defense is arguably worse on the ground, they’re still giving up a boat load of points. This trends towards another 40 attempts for Stafford and I think he EEKS it out to hit the over.

Cooper Kupp @ SF O/U 73.5 receiving yards: O= 115 pts. , U= 85 pts

This is my riskiest play of the slate. Last week we saw the San Francisco 49ers get torched by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Miami Dolphins. The 49ers defensive unit hadn’t been torched like that all season and it seemed like all the injuries may have been caught up to them. Mike Gesicki had five catches for 91 yards. Gesicki is playing more than 70% of his snaps from the slot. Cooper Kupp is playing better than 50% of his snaps out of the slot. That said, Gesicki is 20th in YAC (yards after catch) with 64, a good chunk of that coming on this past Sunday vs the 49ers. Kupp is currently 2nd in YAC with 217 yards. This looks like a spot for Kupp to get into open space and do his thing if the Rams feature him in the slot once again. I’m going to get a little risky and say Kupp surpasses 80 yards and take the over here. 

Kareem Hunt v CLE O/U 72.5 rushing yards: O= 110 pts. , U= 90 pts 

The ‘Steel Curtain’ is back in Pittsburgh. This Steelers defense is currently giving up an average of 64 rushing yards per game. This includes giving up 80 yards to Miles Sanders last week with 74 of those yards coming on a single busted run. The Cleveland Browns definitely like to run the ball, they’re leading the league with 172 attempts. Hunt basically has this backfield on lock and should see plenty of work. I don’t see the Browns changing philosophy, but I do see the Steelers selling out to stop Hunt and challenging Baker Mayfield to beat them through the air. This line is pretty spot on. I’m going to ever so slightly take the under as the Browns may need to utilize Hunt in the pass game to keep pace. 

Calvin Ridley @ MIN O/U  81.5 receiving yards: O= 100 pts. , U = 100 pts 

I’m going to go right back to the game that I started with for this final prop. The Minnesota Vikings have given up the sixth most receiving yards to date this season. The Atlanta Falcons have given up the second most. Neither defense can stop an air attack. This game has full on shoot out potential and the Vikings are going to need to throw in an effort to keep up. Julio Jones is expected to be back for Atlanta and frankly I think that only helps detract coverage from Calvin Ridley. If Julio is 100%, this Falcons offense should click back to form and we should expect a monster day for Ridley. Give me the over. 

 

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Thrive Five: Week 5

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Thrive Five: Week 5

By Matt Kelley

Here we are, heading into week 5 after quite a tumultuous week 4 of injuries, blown leads and COVID-19. Nonetheless, we’re here to crush some props over at Thrive Fantasy and hopefully rake in some cash. Here’s my Thrive Five of the week: 

George Kittle v MIA O/U 4.5 receptions: O= 70 pts. , U= 130 pts.

Man oh man...George Kittle. Coming back from injury last week, Kittle gave us a strong reminder why he should be considered TE1 after racking up 15 catches for more than 180 yards and a score. This week the 49ers are at home against the struggling Miami Dolphins. Whether it's Jimmy Garoppolo or Nick Mullens at QB, Kittle is going to be the go to target as well as the player this offense flows through. The Dolphins are giving up just south of 300 yards per game through the air. This pick doesn’t net you a ton of points, but I’ll be smashing the over. 

Baker Mayfield v IND O/U 241.5 pass yards: O= 100 pts. , U= 100 pts. 

With the over/under representing even odds here and 100 points at stake, I’m going back to the Baker Mayfield well (after he didn’t throw an INT last week). The Colts have allowed a paltry 159.3 passing yards per game through the first month of the season. Grant you, they haven’t exactly faced murderer’s row in the first month (Minshew, Cousins, Darnold, and Foles). While the Browns are exciting to watch right now, it isn’t because of Mayfield (except for his commercials). Baker has cracked 200 yards passing once this season. Part of that is because Baker has been kinda ‘meh,’ and part of that is because the Browns are currently rushing for more than 200 yards per game. If Baker couldn’t have a great day against the Cowboys secondary, I don’t think he’ll be breaking out here against the Colts. I expect another heavy dose of the Browns run game. Give me that under. 

DK Metcalf v MIN O/U 77.5 rec yards: O= 110 pts. , U= 90 pts. 

Very few players have been more exciting to watch this season than DK Metcalf. A big reason for that is because the Seattle Seahawks are finally letting Russell Wilson sling the ball. Oh...and because DK Metcalf is a beast of a human and really good at football. Metcalf's lowest receiving total in a game this season so far is 92 yards, which came against the Patriots Stephon Gilmore. This week the Seahawks play the Minnesota Vikings at home, who are giving up nearly 300 yards per game through the air. Metcalf will likely see Mike Hughes or Holton Hill, and frankly I don’t care which one it is. It’s going to be a long day for this Vikings’ secondary. I like DK to roll and make it five straight games over 90 yards. 

James Robinson @ HOU O/U 96.5 total yards (rush+rec): O= 100 pts , U = 100 pts. 

Another even odds prop here, this time for the Jacksonville Jaguars RB James Robinson who has been an absolute baller for both for actual football and for fantasy this season. Robinson has crossed the century mark in total yards in three of four games to date. Before writing this I knew that the Jags' opponent, the Houston Texans, had been bad against the run this season, but I didn’t realize it’s been 180 yards per game bad. Woof. The Texans are a bit of a wild card right now after firing HC/GM Bill O’Brien this past week, but I don’t think there’s enough Flex Seal in the world to fix the holes in this Texans defense. Somehow the Texans are currently six point favorites, so if the Jags do get down, Robinson has shown his pass catching skills over the weeks as well, racking up 161 yards in four games. I like Robinson to continue his hot start, give me the over. 

Dak Prescott v NYG O/U 25.5 total completions O= 100 pts. , U= 100 pts. 

I guess it’s ‘Even Steven’ week here with the ‘Thrive Five’ as the over/under are each worth 100 points on Dallas Cowboys QB throwing more than 25.5 completions. Shockingly, the New York Giants are giving up the 5th fewest total yards and the 6th fewest passing yards in the league. Oh wait… the Giants are currently 29th in pace of play. Basically, the Giants offense is running so slow teams don’t have time to rack up yards. Dak Prescott hasn’t completed less than 25 passes all season. That’s in large part due to  the Cowboys defense (I use defense loosely) not stopping anyone and creating the need for Dak to throw. So the question is, can the Giants do enough on offense to keep Dak throwing? The Cowboys will probably feel they need to score 30 points, regardless of how close the Giants keep it, and Prescott will continue to throw just enough to carry into the over. 

 

Be sure to check out my interview with Scott Pesick of Thrive Fantasy on The Pick Is In Fantasy Football Podcast which you can find on Apple, Spotify, Amazon, Stitcher and Google! 

 

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The Thrive Five: Week 4

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The THRIVE Five: Week 4

By Matt Kelley

We’re well into our redraft and dynasty seasons, and you probably have a good feel for what defenses can be exploited. You’re making those weekly start/sit decisions based on matchups. Let’s take a look at how to utilize that information for a little extra fun and a little extra cash. 

Starting this week, we’ll take a look at 5 of my favorite NFL prop bets for the week. I’ll be talking about props via Thrive Fantasy. Thrive is a platform that combines daily fantasy and prop bets. Rather than sifting through hundreds of props each week, Thrive lists out 20 props, and you pick your favorite 10 (or so) which lead to a point value. The higher the point value, the less likely the prop is viewed to occur and vice versa. More points, more winning. Simple enough. 

George Kittle v PHI O/U 60.5 yards: O=105 pts. , U= 95pts. 

He’s BACK! After missing the last two weeks for the San Francisco 49ers, George Kittle comes back this week to face the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles defense has a reputation for being stout, but that’s largely against the run. Yes, they’ve technically been good against TEs as well, but last week they faced Drew Sample. Week 1 was Logan Thomas (who still found the endzone). And then there was week two in which the Eagles made Tyler Higbee look like the best TE on earth, allowing him to find the endzone on three occasions. George Kittle is a gamer. He’s been itching to get back on the field, and the Eagles are going to lend some extra possessions to the 49ers with some Wentz turnovers. Kittle is head and shoulders above any competition the Eagles have faced this season at the position, and he is going to be featured. I like Kittle for over 80 yards. 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire v NE O/U 95.5 total yards (rush+rec): O=105 pts , U= 95 points

This one is a little more bold when we consider the Pats’ run defense, but I’m trying to gain insight into the terror dome that is Bill Belichick’s mind in an effort to make good here. What does Belichick try to do in an effort to win? He takes away the opposition's biggest weapon. In this case, it’s Patrick Mahomes so...good luck. That said, I think this is a spot where the Chiefs may turn to CEH a bit more, and he may find a few extra attempts and targets. This would make the Chiefs have to drive the ball through him, rather than Mahomes having the opportunity to display his MVP worthy talents the way he did this past week against the Baltimore Ravens. This one could be close, but give me the over with CEH racking up 120 total yards. 

Josh Jacobs v BUF O/U 0.5 Rush TD’s O= 110 pts, U 90 pts

Eventually I’ll pick an under...maybe. This week however, the Raiders are likely to be without WRs Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards. This, weirdly, might not be the worst thing for the Raiders. Here’s why... The Bills are BAD against slot receivers and basically anything over the middle of the field. You may be wondering how this helps Josh Jacobs. Insert the Raiders need to feature Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. The Raiders will need them, along with Jacobs, to move the ball. Relying on these options is going to allow the Raiders to move the ball more effectively than most expect. With the Bills only favored by 3 points, the Raiders should keep it close enough to still put the ball in Jacobs hands. The Bills have also given up four rushing scores in three weeks. I like Josh Jacobs to hit pay dirt. 

Tom Brady v LAC O/U 262.5 Pass Yards O= 95 pts U= 105 pts

Oh. Here we are... the under. And I’m going against Tom Brady. What could possibly go wrong here? Nonetheless, looking at this matchup objectively, Tom may struggle to put up yards on Sunday. The Chargers have given up more than 235 yards passing at least once this season, and that was to Patrick Mahomes (in a game where it took OT for Mahomes to get there). Brady himself has only cracked 250+ yards once this season, and that was last week against a banged up Broncos defense and offense who turned the ball over time after time, took sack after sack, and really offered nothing in the way of stopping the Bucs. Brady will once again be without WR Chris Godwin after he pulled his hamstring last week. I hate going against the GOAT, but give me the under. 

Baker Mayfield v DAL O/U 0.5 INT O= 70 pts, U= 130 points

Sometimes you have to take the ‘gimmies’. This is one of those times. Currently the Dallas Cowboys are 4.5 point home favorites. To me, that’s giving the Browns perhaps a little too much credit. This is a game in which I see Dak continuing to do Dak things and exploiting a pretty bad Browns defense. If that’s the case, the Browns will be behind, thus relying on Baker Mayfield to throw and bring them back. Those are all the ingredients I need to see a Baker Mayfield interception occur. Take the over here, and bank the points. 

Pick your props. Rack up points. Win cash prizes.

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Trade or Fade?

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Trade or Fade? 

By Matt Kelley

We’re three weeks into the NFL season, and it’s as wild as it has ever been. Injuries, surprise teams, comebacks, stars in the making... 2020 has been a nonstop roller coaster, and odds are it has been for your fantasy team as well. If you’re playing in multiple leagues you might have teams that are doing really well, and you may have some teams that look like a fifth grade English paper with all of the red ‘IR’ statuses on your roster. Regardless of where you are though, someone in your league (maybe you) is getting ancy to make some moves. Let’s discuss who you can target and who you can avoid. 

Trade For: Cam Newton- New England Patriots-QB

Super Cam is back. His first two games of the 2020 season were absolutely electric. Newton was throwing and running well. Then came week three where there was a bit of a stumble. By bit of a stumble, I mean the Patriots had a very Patriot-esque game where Cam didn’t need to do much because Rex Burkhead scored three times against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Pats defense also held the Raiders offense in check for most of the day. Tom Brady had these games while he was in New England as well. They’ll happen from time to time.  Listen though... don’t let one week fool you. Cam has completed over 60% of his passes in each game (for Cam that’s huge), he has six total TD’s to only two picks, and perhaps most importantly has ran the ball at least nine times in each contest. Cam is still the biggest threat when New England is at the goal line, and he’s going to rush for several more scores this season. The Pats are doing what they’ve always done in the Bill Belichick era and that’s getting the most out of their players. If the fantasy manager in your league decided that they want off of the Cam Newton roller coaster, go after a player that at the end of the year has a very real shot of being a top half QB1. 

Fade more: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints-QB

In what is highly rumored to be Drew Brees’ last season, I’m not trying to roster him in fantasy football. Brees is down his top weapon in Michael Thomas and could also be down his TE Jared Cook after he exited week 3 with an assumed groin injury. Meaning, Brees is going to be targeting Alvin Kamara (great), Tre’quan Smith (eh), Emmanuel Sanders (eh) and then some assortment of Adam Trautman, Taysom Hill and maybe Deonte Harris. At some point we have to acknowledge that Brees is fighting a bit of an uphill battle here.  Even in week three, Brees’ numbers were largely propped up by Alvin Kamara who made a highlight run to the endzone on a screen pass. While that’s great and will happen from time to time, you shouldn’t count on it weekly. For me, this isn’t the Brees of years past. Brees is likely still a fine play in plus matchups, but if I have an eager fantasy manager in my league that wants Drew Brees after his week three effort, I’m fine to move on and play other options at the position. 

Trade For: Joshua Kelley, L.A. Chargers-RB

The Chargers said goodbye to Melvin Gordon in the offseason and hello to fourth round draft choice Joshua Kelley out of UCLA. Austin Ekeler is still the focal point out of the backfield and now with Justin Herbert taking over much earlier than anticipated at QB, the offense looks to be moving up and down the field a bit more. Kelley has 43 rush attempts through three weeks, although his usage week to week has been a bit perplexing (12,23,8 rushes). Week 3 could have been reduced usage as a little bit of punishment due to a fumble. That and Austin Ekeler was just very effective. While Kelley hasn’t had a huge breakout game yet in terms of fantasy points, it’s clear the game is coming to him naturally and brighter days are ahead. Should Ekeler miss time due to injury, Kelley is a player that has league winning type value as Justin Jackson doesn’t seem to be much of a threat to his work even once Jackson is healthy. Kelley is getting good looks each game, seems to be trusted inside the redzone, and look at that-- even has a good last name. 

Fade More: Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals-RB

I’ve gotta say...this isn’t one I thought I’d be writing in week 3. What exactly is Cincy doing with Joe Mixon? The Bengals decided to extend the running back before the season started giving Mixon a four-year deal for $48 million. My general rule of thumb in projecting what a team thinks of and how they might utilize a player going forward is simply ‘follow the money’. This money to me, and probably you, says the Bengals are ready to feature Joe Mixon. Well this is sort of true. Mixon is averaging more than 20 touches per game, can’t hate that. Mixon is having trouble in creating space to force missed tackles as he has ZERO breakaway runs this season. Is part of this due to the woes on the Bengals offensive front? Probably. Now could Mixon have a second half awakening like last season? Sure, but the Bengals face the Ravens, Colts, Browns, and Steelers in four of their next six games. At this point, Mixon is a volume play and you’re hoping he falls into the endzone at some point. Think 2018 David Johnson sans the catches. That’s not a ride I want to go along for nor is it one that I think is going to help my fantasy squad win. 

Trade For: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos-TE

It’s looking pretty bleak for the Denver Broncos season as a whole. They’re without their star WR Courtland Sutton who tore his ACL after injuring his shoulder in training camp. They’re down their starting QB Drew Lock who suffered an AC joint sprain in week 2. Not to mention the injuries on the defensive side of the ball. And if signing Blake Bortles off his couch is any indication, things may continue to be bumpy. Nonetheless, fantasy value can be found in the form of TE Noah Fant. Fant has been targeted 21 times over the Broncos first three games. He has at least four catches and 46 yards in each contest which isn’t overly amazing, but we’re talking the TE position and a lot of weeks that is serviceable production. Fant has also found the endzone twice. Don’t get me wrong, this offense is ugly. Scoring opportunity as a whole is the limitation of Fant’s upside however, with Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, and Tim Patrick serving as the team's primary WR’s, Fant is often the most trusted option. The good news (for fantasy) is that the Broncos are likely to find themselves in negative game scripts and needing to throw the ball. Fant is a solid weekly option at the position. 

Fade More: Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams-TE

Coming into the season, you were either really in on the Higbee breakout at the end of 2019 or really out due to his inflated draft cost. Either way, Higbee is a top half TE1 through three games of 2020. This is largely (directly)  due to his week 2 performance in which the Eagles forgot they needed to cover Higbee and he got loose for three scores. A highly efficient day on only five targets. His most in any game thus far. Higbee only saw two targets this past week in a game in which 67 points were scored (he was off the field for a brief time in the second half). It’s hard to bet on his efficiency for 16 games with this type of target volume. I’m willing to trade Higbee away based on his overall standing and hope that someone else is buying into that week 2 performance.