James Gorrell

Super Sophomores

by

Super Sophomores:  

The 2nd Year Players You Should  Be Buying  

 

It takes a lot to go right for rookies to turn themselves into legitimate set-and-forget starters by the end of their 1st season.  The situation that occurs much more frequently is a high-talent rookie showing flashes of greatness but lacking enough consistency to avoid that 2nd-year question – “Will they take the next step this year?”. One of my favorite strategies for building or improving my Dynasty roster is identifying some of these year 2 breakout players and targeting them during the training camp window. During training camp, the hype for the incoming rookie class is typically at its highest point since the NFL draft, and those 2nd-year breakout candidates tend to fly under the radar a bit. In this article, we’ll look at 3 players entering their 2nd season who are perfect buy-low breakout candidates for savvy managers to target.  

Skyy Moore  

Moore came into the NFL draft process with considerable hype and for good reason. His college production profile speaks for itself. He began with a bang as a true freshman, leading the team in receiving yards, and only got better from there. His 25/391/3  stat line from the 2020 Covid-shortened season (5 games)  equates to a 65/1016/8 stat line over a 13-game schedule. He then followed that up with a 94/1291/10 line in his final year at WMU that was good for the top 15 in the country in receiving yards and top 10 in receptions. Once in the NFL, though, Moore had a disappointing rookie season, catching 22 of 33 targets for only 250 yards. This shouldn’t be too much of a surprise, as successful WRs from non-Power 5 schools historically take a bit longer to get comfortable and make an impact at the NFL level than Power 5 prospects. Moore has all the talent to make it happen and now steps into 2023 with the opportunity to do so. While Travis Kelce will be the focal point of this passing attack as long as he is around, the departures of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman leave over 130 targets from last season up for grabs. Moore profiles as the best option to take on these vacated targets and has been seeing every single starter’s rep in 2 wide sets in training camp. The competition for these targets is a bit underwhelming too, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling being more of a deep ball specialist, Kadarius Toney’s inability to stay on the field, and Rashee Rice still getting acclimated as a rookie. There seems to be a lot of optimism in Kansas City surrounding Moore this year as well, with NFL reporter James Palmer writing “Skyy Moore has come into camp ‘a completely different player’ I’m told” and Chiefs’ safety Justin Reid said, “He looks like an entirely new player. I expect a lot from him this year”. Moore’s current price makes him a fair swap for some less inspiring assets like Brian Robinson Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson, or Khalil Herbert, so he is valued well below his ceiling right now. With All-Pro QB Patrick Mahomes throwing the passes, expect Moore to make that 2nd-year leap and have himself a huge season.  

 

Treylon Burks  

Injuries, conditioning problems, and the immense pressure of being the rookie expected to replace AJ Brown all contributed to a  disappointing rookie season for Burks. Still, in his time on the field, we saw flashes of the elite talent Burks possesses. He made some very impressive catches in games against the Packers,  Bengals, and Eagles (hanging on to his lone TD catch of the year while taking a brutal hit that put him out of the game), and the data suggests Burks has the talent to be a very successful NFL WR. He ranks above average in average yards After the Catch, average yards per Route Run, Team Air Yards%, and Target Rate per Route Run. All reports from training camp indicate that Burks is in much better shape than last year at this time which should help keep him healthy and on the field to make plays. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins to the Titans’ wide receiver room is also a huge help for Burks’ production. Burks should thrive with Hopkins drawing attention from the defense, while also learning a lot from Hopkins to help him grow into the elite wide receiver he could be. One quote that stood out to me from Titans’ reporter Mike Herndon at training camp was “Treylon Burks and Hopkins were virtually inseparable on Friday, spending time together with Tannehill during special teams periods and constantly communicating between reps”. There are few players in the league that you’d want mentoring your young wide receivers more than DeAndre Hopkins, so this is definitely a positive sign for Burks’ growth as a player.  Finally, if you’ve read my Tyjae Spears column, you know that I  expect the Titans’ offense to be throwing the ball a lot more under  Tim Kelly this season. The Titans’ run-heavy offenses of old certainly had a difficult time producing 2 fantasy-relevant WRs,  but that shouldn’t be the case this year. In 2020, Kelly’s Texans offense had Brandin Cooks finish as PPR WR16 and Will Fuller finished as PPR WR32 while only playing in 11 games. Hopkins and Burks are a much more talented and dynamic duo than Cooks and Fuller, and Burks comes into this year without the health concerns that plagued the often-injured Fuller. Burks’ current price reflects his status as a potentially elite up-and-coming receiver, but there are other players in this range that I would send away for Burks in a heartbeat (Jameson Williams, Michael Pittman Jr., Chris Godwin). It is not unreasonable to expect big things out of this new-look Titans’ passing game, so it looks like wheels up for Treylon Burks!  

James Cook  

Congrats, Devin Singletary, you are now a Houston Texan. That departure opens up a whole world of opportunity for 2nd year running back James Cook in Buffalo. Singletary finished the last 2 seasons in Buffalo as the PPR RB20 and RB23, primarily because of his pass-catching role within the offense. He finished each of those seasons with 35+ receptions on 50+ targets, and this is something we should expect to see continue for Cook. Nick Goodwin wrote a great Dynasty Dilemma article on Cook, which I highly recommend reading for a deeper look at his situation with the Bills. He notes how the Bills spent high draft capital on Cook with the intention of him becoming an all-purpose weapon for their offense. There is minimal competition for touches in that role because career pass-catching specialist Nyheim Hines was recently lost for the season to a knee injury, and neither Damien Harris nor Latavius Murray poses any real threat through the air. Cook will almost certainly lose some TD value with Buffalo QB Josh Allen being the team’s primary goal-line rushing weapon. But the same was true when Singletary was there and that didn’t stop him from finding the end zone 12 times on the ground in the last 2  seasons en route to two top-24 finishes. When we look at Cook’s metrics too, it becomes clear that he has the talent to take advantage of his touches. He ranks above average in Broken  Tackle Rate, average yards After Contact, Target Rate per Route Run,  and average yards per Route Run. I would definitely consider moving off some players like Isiah Pacheco, Elijah Moore, or Alexander Mattison if it meant getting James Cook on my roster. With Singletary proving that the RB1 role in Buffalo can produce a reliable fantasy asset, I’ll gladly bet on a more talented running back to step into that role and hit the ground running. Don’t be surprised when Cook finishes as a top 20 fantasy RB this season. 

Dynasty Dilemma: Rachaad White

by

DYNASTY DILEMMA:  

Rachaad White  

Tampa Bay. Home to a booming cigar industry, beautiful beaches,  and the 2021 Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. But the team that took home the Lombardi trophy after a convincing 31-9 win over Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs 2 seasons ago is going to look a lot different heading into this year after a disappointing 2022 season that fell well short of expectations. Gone from the sideline are the talented offensive minds of Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich. Gone are offensive weapons like Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette, and Cameron Brate. And most importantly, gone is the greatest QB to ever play the game, Tom Brady (Happy Retirement, GOAT!).  

This year’s Bucs’ offense is currently loaded with question marks as it looks to shake off last year and move into the post-Brady era on the right track. The question we’re going to dive into in this article, though, is the running back position. Will Rachaad White be able to fill the Leonard Fournette-sized hole in the Bucs’ backfield? Let’s take a look at some key factors to help us figure this one out.  

REASONS TO SELL  

Efficiency  

Data and analytics tell the story of what is actually happening on the field, and the numbers were not exactly favorable for White in his rookie year. Among qualifying running backs in 2022, White ranks as below-average to poor in several metrics. 

 Avg. Rush Yards After Contact – 58th out of 60  RBs  

 Explosive Run Rate – 57th out of 60  

 Rush Grade – 53rd out of 60  

 Rush Yards Over Expected per Attempt – 42nd out  of 48  

 DVOA – 34th out of 42 (minimum 100 rush  attempts)  

In addition, he ranked 65th in the league in true yards per carry with 3.6, according to PlayerProfiler.com. All of this leaves a lot to be desired when talking about White as a runner, and his yards per reception number of 5.8 is well below the NFL average for running backs of 7.3, according to StatMuse.com. If he is going to turn into the kind of player you feel comfortable putting in your lineup every week, White will need to take a big jump forward in his efficiency in both rushing and receiving.  

QB Play  

Let’s be honest, there is no world where you must replace the greatest quarterback of all time and not expect a drop-off. Tampa Bay’s quarterback situation heading into the 2023 season is looking much worse than Bucs’ fans would hope for, however. Whether it is Baker  Mayfield or Kyle Trask at the helm, you shouldn’t expect high-quality play from the Bucs’ signal caller. Bad quarterback play will inevitably lead to a stagnant offense that is unable to move the ball. With yards and touchdowns being crucial to scoring fantasy points, it is hard to see any Buccaneer being an elite contributor to your team if the quarterback can’t consistently move the offense down the field. From a long-term perspective, most early projections are pointing towards the Bucs taking a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft, meaning there will likely be some rookie growing pains to work through next season. With the reasonable expectation that high-level play at the quarterback position is at least a season and a half away, it’s looking like it is going to be a little while before we can trust the Bucs’ offense to get anywhere near the dominant unit it was during Brady’s time there.

 

REASONS TO BUY  

Opportunity & Volume  

Despite the negatives, there is a clear path to a high volume of touches for Rachaad White. At the moment, Baker Mayfield seems to be in the driver’s seat for the starting job in Tampa. I  know, I know, I just talked about how bad the Bucs’ quarterback play could be this season but hear me out. Since coming into the league, Mayfield has been in the top 10 in targeting the running back position. It’s easy to chalk this up to him playing alongside elite pass-catching running backs like Kareem Hunt and Christian McCaffery, but it might surprise you to know that White actually fits into that mold pretty well. As a prospect coming out of Arizona State, White was 1 of only 5 running backs that averaged 90+ yards rushing AND 40+ yards receiving per game over the course of a full season while playing for a Power 5 program. The other 4? Christian McCaffery, Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, and Joe Mixon. That is some very good company to be in when talking about White as a 3-down workhorse type of back. After finishing with 50 receptions on 58 targets while splitting time with Fournette as a rookie, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if White sees 70-80+ targets with Mayfield as his full-season starting quarterback this year. As for his rushing usage, Tampa Bay brought in effectively no competition, with a declining Chase Edmonds and career backup Ke’Shawn Vaughn behind him on the depth chart. This gives merit to OC Dave Canales’ statements about Tampa expecting White to be their every down running back. The opportunity is there for him this season to be, at worst, a volume-based RB3 with potential for RB2 numbers.  

 

Improvement in Efficiency/OL Improvement 

While I mentioned how poor White was in certain metrics in 2022,  I failed to mention a huge piece of the puzzle that contributed to that. The Buccaneers’ 2022 offensive line was horrendous, and that’s putting it mildly. They began the year losing 2 of their top starters in Ali Marpet and Alex Cappa (Marpet to retirement and  Cappa to free agency). The personnel problems only got worse  for them when they lost 2 more key starters, Ryan Jensen and  

Aaron Stinnie, to significant knee injuries. Finally, rookie Luke  Goedeke went down later in the year with a foot injury. All of this led to a Bucs’ offensive line that finished 2022 ranked 28th in Adj. Line Yards, 25th in Stuffed Run Rate, and 25th in Power Success Rate. It is a huge ask for any running back to put up good efficiency numbers when they are consistently being met at or behind the line of scrimmage, and an even bigger ask for a rookie. There is reason to believe that the Bucs’ offensive line will be much improved in 2023 and beyond, though. Ryan Jensen and Aaron Stinnie are both back and healthy to anchor the line alongside Pro Bowl tackle Tristan Wirfs (3/5 starters from the 2021 SB team that was considered a top unit in the NFL), and all 3 are under contract until 2025. Luke Goedeke and Robert Hainsey are also signed for the next couple of years and should be expected to take a step forward this year. Newcomers Matt Feiler and rookie Cody Mauch will also provide some much-needed help. After the disaster that was the 2022 season, this offensive line has nowhere to go but up and all reports indicate that they are heading in that direction. Expect Rachaad White to have a much more efficient season running behind a line that is due for some positive regression, and will be together for the duration of White’s rookie deal.  

 

VERDICT  

 

A lack of competition, the support of his coaching staff, and the clear upside if things work out make this a no-brainer. In today’s  NFL, workhorse running backs are few and far between, and White is currently undervalued due to how the community views Tampa’s projected 2023 offense. While I understand the concern in Redraft leagues to some extent, that actually works in our favor for dynasty purposes. White, 24 years old, should be heading into 2024 with an elite prospect as his new quarterback in either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. When that happens, the optimism should cause his value to skyrocket. This offseason, however, he can be bought for the cost of players like Diontae Johnson or Hollywood Brown who both have some pretty big question marks of their own and could cause managers a lot of headaches over the next 2 years. Owners of aging RBs with efficiency or volume concerns like Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones can reload at the position by offering their older back + a late 2nd or early 3rd for White if the trade situation is available. I know the Bucs’ offense this year can seem a bit scary to invest in, but don’t overthink it. Buy yourself some Rachaad White. You won’t regret it.  

BUY 

Dynasty Dilemma: Desmond Ridder

by

Dynasty Dilemma: Desmond Ridder

 

The University of Cincinnati is slowly and subtly beginning to make a name for itself as a school that can consistently produce  NFL-caliber football players. With names such as Brent Celek, Jason and Travis Kelce, and Connor Barwin in years past, to more recent draft picks like Sauce Gardner, Cobe Bryant, and Alec Pierce, the program is certainly trending in the right direction as a developer of on-field talent. They have just had 12 players selected in the last two drafts alone.  

After completing their first full season of the post-Matt Ryan era  with less than ideal play from the QB position, Atlanta Falcons’ fans now look to another former Cincinnati Bearcat with the hope that he can be the answer to their QB woes. Enter Desmond  Ridder. Ridder took over for Marcus Mariota after the Falcons fell out of the playoff race, with mixed results. Despite that fact, the Falcons organization has already named him the 2023 starter and is seemingly doing everything they can to provide the support Ridder will need to develop into what they hope he can be, their next franchise QB. But will that be enough to get Ridder to where he needs to be? Let’s look at some of the pros and cons for rostering Desmond Ridder in the 2023 season and beyond.  

 

REASONS TO BUY

 

Situation  

The best QB in the game, without any help, can only take a team  so far. It’s a story we’ve seen play out time and time again, from Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers’ final years with the Patriots and  Packers respectively, to the development of some of today’s young, elite QBs like Josh Allen before Diggs and Jalen Hurts  before AJ Brown. This clearly isn’t lost on the Falcons. The 2023  offense is, on paper, loaded with highly athletic playmakers that  should help make Ridder’s life in the pocket a lot easier.  

Step one to having a successful offense in the game of football is making sure you can run the football effectively. Luckily for Ridder, he has received the keys to one of the NFL’s best rushing  attacks from last season. In 2022, Atlanta ranked 2nd in the league in rushing rate, behind only Chicago. What’s more, they finished 3rd in total team rushing yards with 2,214 and 4th in team  yards per rush attempt with 4.4 per carry. This rushing attack  should only be expected to improve in 2023 with the addition of  the 8th overall pick Texas RB Bijan Robinson, one of the best RB  prospects the league has seen since the likes of Saquon Barkley or Reggie Bush. He joins an RB group that includes the versatile and ever-dangerous Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier, who  just posted a 1,000-yard season as a rookie. Atlanta also boasts what projects to be a top-10 offensive line for the coming season. All this adds up to the type of formidable run game that can take  the weight off Ridder’s shoulders, set up some great play action  passing opportunities, and ultimately move the ball downfield consistently.  

Turning to the pass catchers now, it is hard to argue with the athleticism and explosiveness of Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and  newly acquired TE Jonnu Smith. All three players can create  serious mismatches in the passing game for opposing defenses attempting to combat Atlanta’s rushing attack. In Ridder’s only four starts of 2022, London saw his best four-game stretch of the season, averaging 9 targets and 83 yards per game over that span. Pitts missed Ridder’s four starts last season but has shown flashes of exactly what made him a former 4th overall pick. Jonnu Smith rejoins head coach Arthur Smith in Atlanta after two disappointing seasons in New England. In 2020, with Arthur Smith as his OC in Tennessee, Jonnu posted 8 TDs as one of the Titans’ best red zone threats, with a highlight reel full of contested catches and plenty of yards after the catch. With all things considered, this sure seems like a supporting cast that will help the Falcons get the most out of Desmond Ridder. 

 

COACHING & SCHEME  

While Arthur Smith has certainly had his fair share of criticism and head-scratching decisions, his ability to produce a functional offense at the NFL level is clear. From the Falcons’ superior rushing attack last year to his 2020 Titans team that ranked 4th in  scoring offense and 2nd in total yardage, his play calling ability should be evident to those not turning a blind eye. What might be less evident, though, are the parallels between that top-5 2020 unit, and his 2023 offense in Atlanta. An elite RB1 in Derrick  Henry and Bijan Robinson, a prototypical alpha WR in AJ Brown and Drake London, a reliable and athletic TE in Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith, and finally a game manager style QB in Ryan Tannehill and Desmond Ridder round out both units. The 2020 Titans offense utilized personnel packages with two or more TEs more than half of the time, and this is something I think we will see Smith revisit. This, in addition to some 2 RB sets which the Falcons should be incentivized to use given the talent at that position, should help give Ridder some extra protection in the pocket and some outlets to get the ball out of his hands quickly. For a QB who takes care of the ball well through the air but not as much when it is in his hands (0 INTs 3 fumbles in 4 starts), keeping him off his back and getting the ball to his playmakers quickly is crucial to him taking the next step.

 

 

REASONS TO SELL

 

Lack of College Competition

Since going into the NFL draft process, Ridder hasn’t exactly had a lot of hype. In fact, you might say he had the opposite of hype. While Ridder’s college tape speaks for itself, his opposing defenses’ does not. Playing in the AAC, Ridder and the Bearcats  were able to run through a schedule of weaker opponents in a way that might be described as stat padding. Their first true test came against Alabama in the 2021 Cotton Bowl, and man was it ugly. Ridder and company were barely able to move the ball.  They failed to find the end zone, went 2-12 on 3rd down (0-3 on 4th down), and totaled a meager 218 yards of total offense. That isn’t exactly a performance that inspires confidence in Ridder against an NFL-caliber defense, in what was the toughest test we’ve seen him face up to that point.  

 

NFL Career So Far

Moving on to the NFL. This may seem like a strange point to highlight; as I mentioned Ridder has only started four NFL games so far in his career, a small sample size to be sure. Life in the NFL for Ridder so far hasn’t been all smooth sailing, though. He  started the year unable to beat out a very uninspiring veteran in Marcus Mariota for the starting job. This led to a lot of speculation as to whether Ridder would actually be able to eventually succeed  in the NFL. If you kept up with the Falcons last season, you  would’ve watched Mariota turnover after Mariota turnover which  gives merit to a lot of that speculation. “You mean to tell me he couldn’t beat out this guy?!” was a very valid point after watching  Mariota struggle his way through the season. When Ridder did  eventually take the reigns to the offense though, his play didn’t scream “we got our guy!” like Falcons’ fans would have hoped. While throwing 0 INTs is a plus, only throwing for 2 TDs in 4  games is definitely not. His metrics in those 4 games are below average, with poor analytics across the board in accuracy (63.5 True Comp pct and 74.8 catchable pass rate, 30th among qualifying QBs), efficiency (-3.8 EPA, 58th among qualifying QBs), and QB rushing (16 yards per game, 26th among qualifying QBs).  In addition to this, he offset the positive of 0 INTs by putting the ball on the ground 3 times in those 4 games. While the sample size is extremely small, this is not the kind of start to a career anyone wants from their prospective franchise QB.

  

VERDICT  

While the negatives surrounding Desmond Ridder inspire a lot of doubt, and understandably so, the positives are worth the risk in my opinion. The Falcons providing as much skill position help as  possible, the offensive pass rate going up through Ridder’s four starts to end the season, the commitment to Ridder as the starter  despite signing Taylor Heinicke, and Arthur Smith’s public comments about a “positionless offense” full of versatility imply the organization and coaching staff want to give Ridder every opportunity to succeed as the leader of this offense. If the very  capable football minds in Atlanta want to seemingly endorse Ridder as their guy, who am I to think that I know better and shy away from that. And the best part is, Ridder can be bought for a huge value compared to his upside if everything works out.  According to the Dynasty Pros Trade Calculator (check it out if  you haven’t yet, it’s a great tool), the cost of acquisition on a potential long-term starter at QB is a 2024 early-to-mid 3rd, D’Onta Foreman, Michael Gallup, etc. These are all prices I would  gladly pay to take a shot at an upside player that has the support  of his coaching staff and is surrounded by all the help he can get. Look at it this way, would you pass up on a 23 year old QB with the potential for several top-15 seasons and the tools to help him do it just to keep a 3rd round pick or a player that is unlikely to crack your starting lineup? No, I didn’t think you would. I wouldn’t either. Buy Desmond Ridder before he hits his ceiling. 

 

BUY

Dynasty Dilemma: Tyjae Spears  

by

Dynasty Dilemma: Tyjae Spears

 

Despite the pressing need to improve the WR room for the 2023  NFL season and the lack of a WR selection with either of their first  two picks in the draft, the Tennessee Titans elected to take Tulane  

RB Tyjae Spears with the 18th pick in the 3rd round. The  consensus was that this was a somewhat baffling pick, almost  exclusively based on the team’s need for solid pass catchers,  especially with a few names still on the board that might have  seemed like better picks (Michael Wilson, Tyler Scott, Charlie  

Jones). Spears came into the draft as a polarizing prospect. He  drew plenty of praise for his Senior Week performance as well as  his electric college highlights, but also came with some valid  concerns. Chief among those concerns is his extensive history of  knee injuries. Regardless of the outside noise, for fantasy  managers the question remains – is Tyjae Spears a buy or a sell?  In this article, I’ll give you my thoughts to help answer this  question.  

 

 

REASON TO BUY

 

PPR Situation

There are a couple factors that play into this, but the most  important is a change in offensive philosophy for the Titans  coming into the 2023 season. During the last two seasons under  the play-calling of former OC Todd Downing, the Tennessee  offense became stale and predictable. For 2023, Former Houston  Texans OC Tim Kelly will be calling the shots. Kelly’s last two  years in Houston indicate that the Titans will be throwing the ball  much more this year, with both of his final seasons in Houston  finishing with almost 100 more passing attempts than the 2022 

Titans offense. Why does this matter for a running back? Because  Kelly’s offenses tend to target RBs at a higher rate than  Downing’s did. While Henry had his most successful statistical  receiving season in 2022, a large portion of his targets can be  attributed to Tennessee’s dire lack of receiving help (AJ Brown  traded to Philadelphia & Treylon Burks missing significant time).  Henry should revert to his meager target share in 2023, leaving  plenty of those RB targets on the table for Spears to take  advantage of. After struggling to find a reliable pass catching back  for a few seasons, Spears has a big opportunity to step into this  role and have success. 

 

Skill Set

All the opportunity in the world is meaningless if you can’t take  advantage of it, and Spears’ skill set puts him in prime position to  do just that. Draft day scouting reports note that he is an  “outstanding receiver who adjusts to the errant throw and gets  down to scoop up low passes” and that “he’s a willing pass  blocker who can square up to defenders”. These skills make it a  no brainer to get him on the field in 3rd down passing situations.  Spears is also an explosive athlete and great route runner,  evidenced by a Senior Week clip where he uses these traits to  shake a defender in an almost embarrassing way before making  the reception. He has all the makings of an absolute weapon with  the ball in space and, given the draft selection ahead of viable  WRs, it seems that is how the Titans want to use him.  

 

 

REASON TO SELL

 

Injury History

Dynasty leagues always have been, and always will be, a long  game. Therefore, it is never a great idea to be in the market for a 

player with an extensive injury history that could impact their  future playing ability. Spears suffered a brutal knee injury in 2020  where he tore his right ACL and damaged his meniscus. This was  

the same ACL that he previously tore in 2015 while playing high  school football. His combine medical report noted cartilage loss,  arthritis, and no remaining ACL in that knee, which lead to  speculation that Spears might not be able to be effective past his  first contract in the NFL. Spears has since stated that he is  healthy, and the Titans brass seems to agree. Still though, this  seems to be a concern for his long-term success in the league.  Unless your team is primed to contend for a championship in the  next couple of years, it might be worth testing the market to see  what you can get for him at the first signs of buzz during the  season. 

 

Size

With Derrick Henry back for another run with the Titans, no one  should expect Tyjae Spears to be handling the massive workload  of a 3 down back in 2023. Well, if he’s expected to have a  relatively short career in the NFL, can we count on him taking  over that role when Henry leaves the team possibly as soon as  next year? Sadly no, that shouldn’t be expected either. Spears  has a smaller frame than your prototypical workhorse RB. At 5’10”  and 201lbs, taking on a workload similar to the top backs like  Jonathan Taylor (226lbs) or Saquon Barkley (232lbs) and staying  healthy doesn’t seem like it is in the cards for Spears. His size is  also cause for some of his scouting negatives, namely his lack of  elite contact balance and his inability to run through direct contact  up the middle. Anyone who drafted Spears as Derrick Henry’s heir  apparent may be strongly disappointed in that expectation. 

 

Return

With Spears being taken in the backend of the 2nd round of most  rookie drafts, your team is likely in good shape for the upcoming  year. This is a bit of a tough spot, as a Henry injury could  immediately turn Spears into a must start RB for your contending  team. Henry, 29, is just 1 full season removed from a year-ending  foot injury and continues to get a significant number of touches,  so holding for that reason makes sense if you are able to do so.  However, if you’re looking to shop him, I think it makes sense to  look for a young WR with similar upside in players like Skyy  Moore, Marvin Mims, Rashod Bateman, or even a TE like Chig  Okonkwo who had a solid rookie season and should also benefit  from Tennessee going more pass heavy this season. If you are  sold on Spears taking on a big pass catching role + the possibility  of a Henry injury, then no one can blame you for staying put. But if  the negatives are concerning to you, I think the development of  one of those young pass catchers is a better bet to take.  

 

 

VERDICT

While Spears has a chance to shatter expectations in his first two  seasons, overall, I think the long-term risk is too great. There are  few things that are more frustrating to fantasy managers than their  high-end talent not being able to stay on the field and in their  lineups. WRs like the ones I mentioned above should all have  much better long-term value and will be much less of a headache  to roster. Again, unless you are going for gold in either of the next  two seasons, I simply don’t see a reason to pass on the right offer  for Tyjae Spears.  

 

SELL