Isuf Gega

Starting a Dynasty League 

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Starting a Dynasty League 

By Isuf Gega

The NFL regular season may have just ended but this is the time where dynasty fantasy football starts to kick off. Maybe you have been in a league with the same people for a few years and want to change things up. Well with the combine, free agency, and the NFL draft all coming up shortly, this is the perfect time to start talking to your league mates about converting your fantasy football redraft league into a dynasty league. 

Starting Lineup 

One of the very first things to consider when starting a dynasty league even before roster sizes, is a starting line up. A typical starting lineup in most dynasty leagues is 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE 2 Flex, 1 Defense and 1 Kicker. A lot of leagues are starting to eliminate kicker and defense all together and are adding more flex spots and IDPs (individual defensive players). A starting position I highly recommend adding is a super flex spot. In a super flex spot you can play your WR/RB/TE but it also provides you with the ability to start a quarterback in that position as well. This will essentially convert your league to more of a two quarterback league. While you can always vote to add extra spots to your starting line up like IDPs and regular flex spots as the league progresses, it will be virtually impossible to add a super flex position later in the years. Teams with multiple talented quarterbacks will vote one way, and others will vote the opposite. It is one of the only positions you will have an impossible time adding on later. Use the size of your starting lineup to help you decide how big you want your roster sizes to be.

Roster Size 

A typical roster is anywhere between 25-30 players per team. Assuming you are in a 12 man league, that can be a difference of 60 players. That is a drastic difference when considering the waiver wire. With 30 man rosters, you will have very limited waiver wire options. No one knows your league mates better than you, so depending on their skill level I would recommend 25 roster spots for newer owners, and a 30 man roster for more experienced owners. Do not forget that the bigger your starting lineup is, the more roster spots you should add to accommodate your league-mates. 

Scoring System 

If you have had the same league-mates for years on end then you probably have a scoring system in place that works for everyone. However, keep in mind that this will more likely than not be one of the only times you will be able to change your scoring system. If a few years later you decide you want to make this a Tight End premium league, which means Tight Ends get an extra .5 points per reception, it will be extremely difficult to implement. The players with the best Tight Ends will vote in favor of the rule change and the players with bottom tier Tight Ends will vote against it. Just like having the conversation to add a super flex spot, the scoring system is a conversation you want to have settled early in the dynasty league set up.

Waiver Wire

In dynasty the waiver wire is super important while also being incredibly underwhelming. For a casual team owner it may seem like just a bunch of hot garbage, but for an avid team owner the waiver wire could be full of diamonds in the rough and determining who to drop and who to hold will give you many sleepless nights. 

It is important to determine how your league waivers will run. In redraft, a lot of leagues like to give priority to the team with the worst record each week as they need the most help. However in dynasty that is not how most leagues are set up. Teams are always rebuilding and the “worst” team in your league this year could be the future champion in a year or two. I would recommend using a FAAB (free agent acquisition budget) when running waivers. This will allow each team to start off with a set amount of money each season to blindly bid on players. This system is fair and it adds a certain element of strategy when determining how much money you want to bid against your league-mates. 

Trading

Trading in a dynasty league is so much more important than trading in a redraft league. In redraft you just forget all about the trade by next year but in dynasty a bad trade can haunt your team for years to come. That being said, a dynasty trade should never be vetoed unless it is clear collusion. Heading into the 2018 season, players like Todd Gurley II, Odell Beckhem Jr., Le'Veon Bell, and David Johnson were being drafted in the first few rounds. Fast forward just 3 seasons later where Gurley and Bell have less value than a used up tissue. I have two points to make; please do not draft Gurley and Bell in your start up drafts, and no matter how lopsided a trade may seem do not veto it. Player value can fluctuate drastically and by vetoing a trade you may be hurting the perceived “losing” owner. Allow your league-mates the freedom to trade their player even if you do not agree with their evaluation. 

Rookie Draft 

In most 12 man leagues about half the league makes the playoffs while the bottom half losers fight for bragging rights. In dynasty, the playoffs outcome determines more than just who’s taking home the trophy. They also determine draft order for the top teams. Typically the league winner and runner up draft 12th and 11th overall in the upcoming rookie draft. And the rest of the league drafts in the reverse order of standings. 

Judging by how experienced your league mates are, you can choose to have anywhere between 4-6 rounds in a rookie draft. For casual leagues I recommend 4 rounds of rookie picks. If you have 6 rounds it is fair to assume that a lot of players drafted in the later rounds will be relatively unknown and cut candidates. However, in those very late rounds is where you find true diamonds in the rough. There is nothing better than that 6th round rookie pick going on and becoming a dynasty stud for you. Keep in mind though that you are much more likely to cut that rookie than him providing you with significant fantasy value.

If you have gotten this far, then you are ready to start your own dynasty league. Dynasty is one of the best ways to play fantasy football as it keeps everyone engaged all season long.

Check us out on twitter @DynastyProsFF for all your offseason news and trade advice.

You can follow me on Twitter @IsufgFF

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em Week 4

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Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: Week 4

By Isuf Gega

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is our weekly look into NFL match-ups and how they will affect your starting lineup. Starting guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Ezekiel Elliot are easy decisions and that is not the reason you are reading this article. For the most part these are borderline starting players you are considering placing in your lineups due to injury, poor play, bye week, etc.

 Quarterbacks Start ‘Em

Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming off back-to-back games of over 24 fantasy points. Fitzpatrick and Miami played last Thursday, which means they have had a couple extra days to prepare for the Seahawks this week. The Seahawks defense has allowed the most passing yards this season along with the most receiving yards. Their defense has allowed 400 more yards to opposing wide receivers than any other team this year. And if things were bad enough for the Seattle defense, they also will be without star safety Jamal Adams this week, who has a groin injury. Fitzpatrick should be considered a very solid streamer this week with high-end QB2 numbers.

Joe Burrow has had at least 300 passing yards and two touchdowns without any interceptions in his last two games. This week he takes on the Jaguars who have allowed the fifth most points to fantasy quarterbacks along with an NFL worse 80% completion rating. The quarterbacks they have played against have been Phillip Rivers, Ryan Tannahill, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Not exactly what one would call stud quarterbacks. Play Burrow this week with the mindset of a low-end QB1 finish. 

Jared Goff is the QB9 through the first three weeks and his matchup only gets easier this week against the Giants. To put into perspective how bad the Giants defense was last week, they allowed Nick Mullens, a backup quarterback playing without his starting wide receiver, tight end, and running back to drop 343 passing yards and a touchdown. There is also a chance the Giants are without safety Jabrill Peppers. Goff should have a safe floor and finish as a QB1. 

Quarterbacks Sit ‘Em

Tom Brady may have finished as the QB9 last week, but I do not expect him to do the same this week against the Chargers. Since last year the Chargers have only allowed three quarterbacks to finish inside the top 12. Two of those quarterbacks were Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Brady will also be without Chris Godwin (hamstring) this weekend while Scotty Miller (hip/groin) has not been practicing. Brady is no more than a QB2 this weekend.

Justin Herbert has looked very good this year in his first couple games. He has had a few rookie errors, but those will change with more NFL experience. Herbert will face the Buccaneers this week who have been phenomenal at preventing quarterbacks to score fantasy points. They have allowed the fifth fewest points to quarterbacks and not a single one has had more than 15 points against them. Herbert should finish as a low end QB2 at best.

Carson Wentz finished last week with 23.5 fantasy points good enough for QB11. While this may seem like a good thing, it took him all game plus a full 10 minutes of overtime against one of the worst defenses in the NFL to finish this high on the week. Wentz has been brutal this year having at least two interceptions in each of his games this season. He will be playing against the 49ers this weekend without Dallas Goedert (ankle) and Jalen Reagor (thumb). Fellow wide receivers DeSean Jackson (hamstring) and Alshon Jeffrey (foot) are also battling injuries and not very likely to play. The 49ers have their own injury concerns however I expect them to pressure Wentz and force him to keep making more mistakes. Expect him to finish as a low-end QB2. 

Running Backs Start ‘Em

David Montgomery was a big winner last week, even if his fantasy production didn't show it. While we do not root for injuries, backup and pass catching back Tarik Cohen tore his ACL. Mitch Trubisky also got benched for Nick Foles.  Most of Cohen’s opportunities should be going to Montgomery now and with a better quarterback they should have the offense flowing more efficiently. Montgomery should easily see 20 plus touches a game moving forward. This makes him a low end RB2 this week.  

Darrel Henderson has totaled 241 yards along with two touchdowns in the last two weeks. Henderson plays the Giants this week who allowed back up Benny Snell to go for 113 rushing yards week one, and David Montgomery for 127 total yards and a touchdown week 2. They followed that up by allowing 146 total yards and three touchdowns to Jerick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson Jr. last week. The Ram are 13 (!!!) point favorites in this game. Expect Henderson to get going quickly and to share some garbage time carries with Malcom Brown. Henderson is a top 20 play this week with tremendous upside. 

Carlos Hyde is going to be in for a big week if Chris Carson does not play after suffering a sprained knee last week. It is my assumption that he would play this week if it were a tougher matchup, but they are playing the Dolphins who should be relatively easy to beat. If Carson is out, I expect Hyde to get around 15 carries and a few targets. And even if Carson does play, Hyde should still see an expanded role. First, Seattle will likely want to limit Carson’s usage, and also the Seahawks are expected to be up big and Hyde should be getting a lot of garbage time carries. I foresee Hyde as a solid flex play even if Carson plays, with higher upside if he is out.

Running Backs Sit ‘Em

New York Giants Backfield is still a backfield to avoid until we get more information as to how the carries and snaps will be divided. The snap count last week was Dion Lewis with 20, Wayne Gallman with 18, and Devonta Freeman with 15. Freeman is probably the running back you want and last week Freeman barely knew half the playbook so it will be interesting to see how he does this week. The Giants are 13 point underdogs against the Rams so I do not expect them to give many carries to any of their running backs. If you have to play one it should be Freeman but he is a poor RB4 option this week at best.

Antonio Gibson was someone I liked last week and said to start him as a solid flex play as Gibson finished as the RB25. This week however they play the Ravens and are expected to fall behind early. The Ravens have allowed the sixth fewest points per opportunity to running backs which means Gibson will need a lot of volume to be fantasy relevant. J.D. McKissic is still the pass catching back for this team and is utilized more when Washington is playing from behind which they are expected to in this game. Gibson should be considered a low-end RB3.

Detroit Lions Backfield is not to be trusted this week, or any week for that matter baring an injury. Individually they are talented and can produce fantasy points, but together they are a mess. Through three weeks the snap count is Peterson with 79, Swift with 60, and Kerryon with 59. If you had to start one, my advice would be to start Peterson. Although Peterson has yet to score this season and does not have a single carry inside the 5 yard line unlike Johnson and Swift, he did see 22 carries last week. And even though Swift is more of the pass catching back, Peterson is your best bet if you are stuck and have to start one. Consider him as a low upside RB4. 

Wide Receivers Start ‘Em

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) has incredible upside this week after finding out fellow wide receiver Allen Lazard will be out indefinitely due to a core muscle surgery. Furthermore, Davonate Adams is questionable to play with a hamstring issue. He has been limited in practice this week and if he does play Monday night, I do not see him being 100% and sitting out the instance there appears to be a chance at a reinjury. The Packers have a bye next week and rushing Adams back too quickly can cause him to further aggravate this soft tissue injury. Secondly, the Packers are 3-0 and have aspirations of reaching the Super Bowl once again and they cannot afford for Adams to miss significant time. MVS could very well be the number one option for Rodgers to throw to all night in a game that should be a shoot out. The over/under is 56.5 points so regardless if Adams plays or not, MVS should see a plethora of targets this week against the Falcons. MVS is a WR3 this week with top 10 upside. 

Tyler Boyd is the best fantasy receiver for the Bengals. Over the last two games Boyd has 17 receptions from 21 targets for 197 yards and a touchdown. While A.J. Green is still there demanding targets, Burrow has been chucking the ball every game and has looked great doing so. There will be plenty of targets to go around and I expect Boyd to receive around 9 targets this game, good enough to finish as a WR2. 

CeeDee Lamb has received at least six targets in every game he has played so far. This includes last week's game where he had a low 49 snaps compared to Gallup with 70 and Cooper with 65. I expect Lamb to play more snaps this week and be on par with Gallup. Lamb should be back in the WR3 conversation this week as he is expected to be in another shoot out. 

Wide Receivers Sit ‘Em

Brandon Aiyuk had 101 total yards and a touchdown last week good enough for WR12 on the week. This week he faces the Eagles and star cornerback Darius Slay. Slay has been playing out of his mind this season. He has held Terry McLaurin, Robert Woods, and A.J. Green combined 10 of 16 passing for just 87 total yards. Aiyuk may be good, but he is not better than those wide receivers currently. With George Kittle expected to play this week, Aiyuk should see less opportunity. Consider him a WR4 this week. 

T.Y. Hilton this season has been brutal to own. He currently sits as the WR69 on the season and is playing against the only team in the NFL who has not given up a touchdown to wide receivers, the Bears. However, Philip Rivers has nowhere else to throw the ball. Both Parris Campbell (knee) and Michael Pittman (calf) are out this game. I do not expect Hilton to be the first wide receiver to score against the Bears. Therefore, Hilton should not be considered anything more than a WR3 with some upside. 

Tight Ends Start ‘Em

Dalton Schultz is going to be a great streamer this week. He has a 15.4% target share and Dak Prescott leads the NFL in pass attempts. The target share should not see a dip this week as the Cowboys are expected to be in another shoot out with the over/under being at 56 points. Schultz will face the Bengals this week who have given up the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends. I expect Schultz to finish as a high-end TE2.

Robert Tonyan had himself a good game last week in the absence of Davante Adams. This week Adams is still questionable to play and Allen Lazard has been ruled out indefinitely. Tonyan plays the Falcons who have allowed a touchdown to every starting tight end they faced. Greg Olson and Dalton Schultz each scored a touchdown and Jimmy Graham scored two. With all the injuries to the Packers receiving core, expect Tonyan to have himself a great game. He is a deep sleeper that I believe has the upside to produce as a TE1 this week. 

Mike Gesicki has had a very up and down season so far. He has had two week where he had 30 receiving yards or less, and one week when he blew up and had 130 receiving yards. While I do not see Gesicki having 130 receiving yards again, I expect him to have high usage in this game against the Seahawks. Jamal Adams has done a great job covering tight ends for the Seahawks, however he is not expected to play this week. Gesicki should be considered a TE1 this week in what will likely be a high scoring game.

Tight Ends Sit ‘Em

Greg Olsen finished off last week with 5 receptions for 61 yards. If Jacob Hollister had not vultured the touchdown away from him, Olsen would have had a good fantasy day. This week he faces the Dolphins, who have not allowed any tight end to have more than 35 yards against them. Olsen is fighting Hollister for targets and fellow tight end Will Dissly is slowly recovering from his achilles injury. I don’t expect Olsen to make much of an impact this week and there are better streaming options.

 

 

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em Week 3

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Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em Week 3

By Isuf Gega

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is our weekly look into NFL matchups and how they will affect your starting lineup. Starting guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Ezekiel Elliot are easy decisions and that is not the reason you are reading this article. For the most part these are borderline starting players you are considering placing in your lineups due to injury, poor play, bye week, etc.

Quarterbacks Start ‘Em

Ryan Tannehill finished week two with 26.76 fantasy points, good enough for the QB8. Even though A.J. Brown was missing time, Tannehill still cooked the Jaguars last week. This week Tannehill is up against a Minnesota Vikings defense who have allowed the fourth most fantasy points per game. The already decimated Vikings defense took another hit last week when they lost linebacker Anthony Barr to a torn pectoral muscle. Besides Barr, the Vikings are without stud pass rusher Danielle Hunter for at least one more week. Even without A.J. Brown, I foresee Tannehill finishing as a high-end QB2 this week.

Matthew Stafford is someone who has underperformed his ADP so far this season. This week Stafford plays the Arizona Cardinals who, on paper, have allowed the third fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. That Cardinals defense is not as good as it may seem though. The two quarterbacks they have faced so far are Jimmy Garoppolo and Dwayne Haskins. Not exactly two quarterbacks that strike fear in the heart of defenses. Stafford has also been without star wide receiver Kenny Golladay, who has missed the last two weeks with a hamstring injury. With Golladay expected to be back, Stafford has low-end QB1 potential this week. If Golladay were to miss time again, Stafford should be considered as a mid-end QB2. 

Ben Roethlisberger is the QB13 so far this season and is averaging over 20 points per game. He has thrown at least two touchdowns in each game so far and that should not change this week against the Houston Texans defense. The Texans have allowed 14 of their last 18 quarterbacks to finish inside the top 15. This week, I expect Roethlisberger to have north of 250 passing yards along with 2 touchdowns. He should be considered a high-end QB2. 

Quarterbacks Sit ‘Em

Teddy Bridgewater should not be considered a streaming option by any means this week. Sure, the injury to Christian McCaffery means the Panthers will have to throw more, but this is not the week to test that theory. Bridgewater will play against a Chargers defense that features one of the best secondaries in the league with Casey Hayward, Chris Harris Jr., and Desmond King. Also, do not forget about pro bowlers Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa rushing the passer. While it is true that the Panthers will have to throw the ball more, I would not be looking to stream Bridgewater against this Chargers defense. Expect a low-end QB2 from Bridgewater. 

Derek Carr is a high risk-low reward type of player this week against the Patriots. Although Carr had a good performance last week finishing with 21.66 points, it is not something he will repeat against the Patriots. The Patriots have four interceptions through the first two weeks and I would not be surprised at all to see Carr have multiple turnovers. The Raiders are also playing without offensive guard Richie Incognito, and both Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs are battling injuries. Speaking of Waller, out of Carr’s 28 completions last week, 12 of them came from Waller. That is nearly half of Carr’s completions! I can foresee star cornerback Stephon Gilmore covering Waller at times and causing Carr to look elsewhere. Carr is a low-end QB2 this week.

Carson Wentz is having a very rough start to the 2020 season. Wentz has more turnovers (5) than he does touchdowns (2) through the first two weeks. The offensive line in Philadelphia has had many issues although I do expect them to improve this week against the Bengals. The Bengals are a below average defense and have allowed the highest rushing yards (358) in the league though two week. This may mean the Eagles will be utilizing Miles Sanders more than actually throwing the ball. Also, rookie wide receiver Jalen Reagor is set to miss an extended period of time so this may make matters more difficult for Wentz. I can see Wentz having mid-end QB2 numbers.

Running Backs Start ‘Em

David Montgomery exceeded expectations last week against the Giants and finished as the RB7. This week he plays against a defense that has allowed 4 total touchdowns to running backs through the first two weeks. The Falcons allowed 3 touchdowns to the Seattle backfield, and a combined 4 rushing touchdowns to the Cowboys last week. Backup Tarik Cohen combined for just 6 touches last week compared to Montgomery’s 19 touches. Montgomery is the clear goal line back and seems healthy coming back from his groin injury. I expect big things from him this weekend resulting in a high-end RB2.

Joshua Kelly ranks sixth in the NFL with 35 carries through the first two weeks. Not only is the rookie seeing a ton of carries, he has also seen 8 red zone carries compared to Austin Ekelers 4. This week he faces one of the worst run defenses in the league. In their last 18 games the Panthers have allowed 33 rushing touchdowns. In comparison, no other team in the league has allowed for more than 19 in that same span! This is a defense you want to run against and that is exactly what Joshua Kelley will do. Assuming Justin Jackson does not suit up, expect Kelley to finish as a low-end RB2.

Antonio Gibson played well last week and finished as the RB23. Gibson’s snap count rose significantly between weeks one and two. Gibson saw only 18 snaps in the season opener while fellow running back Peyton Barber saw 29. In week two however, everything changed. Gibson rose to 43 snaps and Barber only saw 1 snap all game. This is a clear sign that Washington has chosen Gibson as their lead back and I expect him to perform well this week. I view Gibson as a solid flex against the Browns. 

Running Backs Sit ‘Em

Mike Davis is set to be the new starter for the Panthers while Chrstian McCaffrey recovers from an injury. Most fantasy owners spent a top waiver pick or a good amount of their FAAB budget to acquire Davis, but he should be played with caution this week. The Chargers defense is legit. They allowed just 71 total yards to Joe Mixon (RB44) week one and only 70 total yards to Clyde Edwaeds-Helaire (RB38) week two. These two running backs are much more talented than Mike Davis and could not get it done. Davis is only a low-end RB3 this week.

J.K. Dobbins has only had 10 total touches through the first two weeks. While he scored twice week one and finished as the RB13, that came off of only 7 carries for 22 yards. Fellow running backs Mark Ingram (21 touches) and Gus Edwards (14 touches) have been utilized more than him. Furthermore, Lamar Jackson will vulture away touchdowns in the red zone. Dobbins is a nice stash, but not worth a start this week. I consider him to be a RB4 at best.

New York Giants Backfield have signed Devonte Freeman due to losing Saquon Barkley to a season ending ACL tear. This backfield is a mess and no one will be able to decipher the true starting running back until we see them all on the field. Even then it might be difficult to determine who it might be. Wayne Gallman was inactive last week and due to this many people consider Dion Lewis to be ahead in the depth chart. That simply is not the case. Lewis is a pass catching running back and complemented Barkley much better, while Gallman is more of a true backup. Bringing Freeman in has just further complicated things and therefore I do not think any of these running back are worth a start this week. If you are in a pinch and HAVE to start one of these guys, I would recommend Gallman. 

Wide Receivers Start ‘Em

Darius Slayton is set to see his target share grow exponentially this week. This is due to both Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard (23.5% of targets) being out. While playing against the 49ers this week may seem scary, it really is not. The 49ers have had their share of injuries including cornerback Richard Shermon. Shermon is expected to miss at least two more weeks which will make Slayton’s matchup a little easier. Slayton finished as the WR4 in week 1 so he certainly has a lot of potential. Expect him to finish as a mid-end WR3 with great upside.

Corey Davis is having a solid season so far with fellow wide receiver A.J. Brown dealing with a knee injury. Davis is averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game, which makes him the WR22. Playing against a horrid Vikings defense this week I expect Tannehill to heavily utilize Davis. The Vikings lead the league in touchdowns given up to receiver (5) so this week projects to be a solid week for Davis. Expect him as a WR3 with upside.

CeeDee Lamb is looking super comfortable in his role in Dallas. Lamb finished last week with 9 targets resulting in 106 receiving yards. That should continue this week against the Seahawks who lead the league in 731 allowed yards to wide receivers. No other team has allowed more than 525 yard. Expect Lamb to have a big week resulting in a WR2 finish. 

Wide Receivers Sit ‘Em

Robby Anderson has looked amazing so far as he sits with 223 yards and a touchdown this season. That is good enough for WR5 on the season. However, do not expect WR1 numbers from Anderson this week against the Chargers. He should expect to see Casey Hayward on him this week who is a top 5 cornerback in the league. For the most part the Chargers shut down Tyreek Hill last week holding him to just 4 receptions and 45 yards off 10 targets until that late fourth quarter bomb that went for 45 yards and a touchdown. Expect the very same thing from Anderson this week. Boom or bust. My expectation is a WR4 finish. 

Will Fuller had a great week one with 8 receptions and 112 yards from 10 targets. Fuller followed that up in week two by doing what he always does, disappearing. Although this may have had something to do with an injury, he played 37 snaps but did not see a single target. Fuller can very easily win you your week, and he can very easily lose it for you. Fuller plays against the Steelers this week and going back to last year, the Steelers have only allowed two wide receivers to have over 100 yards. As always, Fuller is a very boom or bust player, but I can see him ending up as a WR3. 

Emmanual Sanders was not super productive week one with only 3 receptions for 15 yards. However, he did score a touchdown, leading fantasy players to believe Sanders would be the number one option with Michael Thomas out. That simply is not the case. Sanders only had 3 targets resulting in 1 reception for 18 yards last week. Drew Brees also did not look good or efficient without Michael Thomas. I do not expect much to change this week against the Packers so I am anticipating Sanders to finish as a WR4.

Tight Ends Start ‘Em

Logan Thomas is the fourth most targeted tight end in the league. At the tight end position, you must follow the targets. Thomas is very comparable to Darren Waller of last year. A big bodied tight end that has been around the league, dominant combine numbers, and a plethora of targets. I am not saying he will finish as TE3 on the season like Waller, but the similarities are there. This week he takes on the Browns who have allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends. Treat Thomas as a solid TE1 streamer this week.

Drew Sample is a fantastic week 3 streamer. Joe Burrow clearly loves throwing to his tight ends as they have a 21.6 target share. Sample received 9 targets in week 2 against the Browns after C.J. Uzomah left the game and is now out for the season. This week Sample plays against the Eagles who just allowed Tyler Higbee to hang 3 touchdowns on them. You should trust Sample as a streamer this week. I can see him having solid TE2 numbers. 

Hunter Henry has seen 8 targets per game so far this year. It has not mattered who his quarterback is as they have targeted him regardless. Henry ranked second amongst tight ends with 156 receiving yards. Expect Henry to be a nice safety net for rookie Justin Herbert this week. I believe Henry's first touchdown of the season will come this week leading to a nice floor and a reliable TE1 finish.

Tight Ends Sit ‘Em

Rob Gronkowski has done absolutely nothing as the starting tight end for the Buccaneers. Last week I said to sit him, and rightfully so because Gronk scored exactly zero points that game. His only target that game actually resulted in an interception for Tom Brady. Furthermore, Chris Godwin was out last week with a concussion and Gronk still did nothing. O.J. Howard is also out targeting him. Gronk playing against the Broncos this week will not end well as they have allowed 5.18 yards per target to tight ends, which is seventh lowest in the league. Not only should Gronk be benched, but he should be cut from your rosters. 

Chris Herndon had a lot of appeal last week after finding out both Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder were out. After all, the targets had to go somewhere, right? Well, Herndon saw just 5 targets resulting in just one catch for 5 yards. This week he plays the Colts who have quietly been very good against opposing tight ends. Dating back to last year, the Colts allowed just one tight end to score more than 14 fantasy points against them. This year they have allowed the fewest points to the tight end position, just 2.05 points through two weeks. They have also allowed just 11 total yards. Herndon may see a handful of targets this week, but I do not expect him to turn them into anything more than a TE2.

T.J. Hockenson has caught all 9 of his targets this year for 118 yards and a touchdown. This puts Hockenson as the TE10 so far in the season. While he has been playing well, Kenny Golladay has been out of the lineup for the last two weeks. When Golladay returns he will undoubtedly eat into the little targets Hockenson has. Golladay is also a red zone monster so he will demand those targets leaving little behind for Hockenson. He is also playing against the Cardinals this week who have allowed just 4.94 yards per target to tight ends, which is sixth lowest in the league. I still expect Hockenson to finish as a low end TE1, but temper your expectations if Golladay plays. 

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: 2020 Week 2

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Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

By Isuf Gega

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is our weekly look into the NFL match-ups and how they will affect your starting lineups. Starting guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Christian McCaffrey are easy decisions and that is not the reason you are reading this article. For the most part, these are borderline starting players you are considering placing in your lineups due to injury, poor play, bye week, etc. 

Quarterbacks Start ‘Em

Ben Roethlisberger started off with a very shaky week 1 against the Giants, but was significantly better as the game went on. This was Big Ben’s first game back from his 2019 season ending elbow injury and he completed 21-of-32 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns. This week he plays a banged up Broncos defense who is without star pass rusher Von Miller (ankle) and likely cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder). Big Ben has also been much better at home than on the road. Over the last 8 full games he played at Heinz Field, Big Ben has been averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. He has the potential to finish as a top 10 quarterback this week.

Tom Brady finished last week with 239 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, good enough for 20.5 fantasy points. The Saints were a tough matchup for Brady as they typically are for most quarterbacks. This may be due to the Saints returning most of their starters on defense from last year. This week Brady plays the Panthers who are decimated on defense after losing 7 starters in the offseason including start linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their top cornerback, Donte Jackson, also suffered an injury week 1. With Mike Evans back to full health, expect Brady to put up QB1 numbers this week.

Philip Rivers had himself a solid game week 1 against the Jaguars, finishing with 363 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. This week he plays the Vikings who’s defense looked horrible in week 1. The Vikings are playing without stud pass rusher Danielle Hunter as well as without 5 of last year’s starters on defense. The Colts offensive line should be able to protect Rivers and provide him ample time in the pocket. My expectation for Rivers is a high-end QB2 finish.

Quarterbacks Sit ‘Em

Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times, fumbled twice (lost one) against Washington last week while also throwing 2 interceptions. Wentz did all of that against an average Washington defense and this week he plays the Rams whose defense is much better. Aaron Donald and that defensive line brought pressure to Dak Prescott all game last week even though that Dallas offensive line is considered to be one of the best in the league. The Rams now face an offensive line that has had multiple injuries to their starters. Besides that, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey will give Wentz nightmares when throwing the ball outside. I have Wentz as a low end QB2 this week.

Drew Lock will undoubtedly have great fantasy value going forward, but not this week. Courtland Sutton is expected to play against the Steelers this week after missing week 1 with a shoulder injury, though he certainly will not be 100% ready. This Steelers defense is legit. In the last 11 games, no quarterback has scored more than 18 fantasy points against this defense. If you are playing the streaming game at QB, this is the week to pivot from Drew Lock and look elsewhere.

Teddy Bridgewater finished with 270 yards and a touchdown in last week's game, good enough for 19.4 fantasy points. However, most of Bridgewater’s points came from a 75-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson. This week he plays the Buccaneers who held Drew Brees to just 160 passing yards. This Bucs defense is significantly better than the Raiders and I expect Bridgewater to have low-end QB2 numbers this week.

Running Backs Start ‘Em

David Montgomery looked very good against the Lions week one with 13 carries for 64 yards and 1 reception for 10 yards. Now he gets to play the Giants who gave up 113 yard to a backup running back in Benny Snell week 1. Montgomery was coming off a groin injury to start week 1 but will be fully healthy going into this week. While Tarik Cohen is a good running back, he is mostly considered to be a pass catching back and will not vulture away Montgomery’s goal-line opportunities. I have Montgomery as a mid-end RB2 this week.

Ronald Jones looked fast and explosive week 1 against the Saints where he totaled 82 yards from 17 carries and 2 receptions. Jones played 33 snaps compared to 9 for Leonard Fournette. Most importantly though, Jones got two carries inside the 10-yard line while Fournette did not get any. This week he plays the Panthers who may have the worst run defense in the NFL. Josh Jacobs torched them last week for 139 total yards and 3 touchdowns. In a game where the Buccaneers are heavy favorites (8.5), expect them to be in a positive game script. Jones should be considered as a RB2 with RB1 upside.

Nyheim Hines had himself a week 1 most people did not expect. Everyone was excited for Jonathan Taylor but it was Hines who stole the show. He finished with 8 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown as well as 7 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown. Philip Rivers kept Hines involved all game long. I expect Taylor and Hines to be similar to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler of last year except Taylor and Hines have a much better offensive line. I foresee Hines finishing as a RB3 with a solid floor this week. 

Running Backs Sit ‘Em

Melvin Gordon had himself a great game week 1 with 86 total yards and a touchdown for 14 fantasy points. He looked good throughout but was most productive when Phillip Lindsay went out with an injury. This week he plays the Steelers who completely shut down the Giants run game last week. Saquon Barkley, arguably the best running back in the league, only had 6 yards on 15 carries. Gordon is going to be playing on the road on a short week against one of the best defenses in the league. Benching Melvin Gordon is going to be difficult, but expectations should be lowered on what he can do. I have Gordon as a RB3 this week.

James Robinson was the only running back in week 1 to have 100% of his team’s running back carries. He finished the day with 90 total yards and a reception. While Robinson played well in his first NFL game, the Jaguars ran the fewest plays in the NFL with 47. Robinson will be facing a better defense in Tennessee than he saw last week, which means the Jaguars might be playing from behind. Chris Thompson being the pass catching back also hurts Robinson. I expect him to finish as a RB4 with limited upside.

Sony Michel led the Patriots running backs in carries with 10 last week. He had 37 rushing yards and a touchdown to go along with it. While Sony scored 9 fantasy points, he is not to be trusted in your lineups. The Patriots involved multiple running backs and Cam Newton had 15 carries and 2 touchdowns. Sony may have the goal line work locked down, but Cam Newton will surely vulture some away. The entire Patriots backfield should be under a wait and see approach until we see more. Fade Sony this week and consider him as a low-end RB4.

Wide Receivers Start ‘Em

Diontae Johnson saw a team high 10 targets week one and caught 6 of them for 57 yards. He also had a 31% target share. This week he will face the Broncos defense and the expectation is for star cornerback A.J. Bouye to sit out due to a separated shoulder suffered in week 1. The Broncos secondary allowed Corey Davis 101 yards and 7 receptions. Diontae Johnson is much better than Corey Davis and I expect him to finish as a high end WR3 with incredible upside.

T.Y. Hilton had a subpar game against the Jaguars last week. He had a team high 9 targets but finished with only 4 receptions for 53 yards due to two drops in the fourth quarter. The high target count suggests that Rivers is comfortable throwing to Hilton especially when it matters most. Hilton plays the Vikings this week that just got cooked by the Packers. All three of the Packers starting wide receivers scored touchdowns last week and I can see this as a big week for T.Y. and the entire Colts team. Hilton will be a high end WR3 with a safe floor this week. 

Michael Gallup had three catches last week for 50 yards against the Rams. It would have been closer to 100 receiving yards for the game if not for a very questionable offensive pass interference call. This week the Cowboys play the Falcons who were torched last week by the Seahawks. This is one of the highest over/under of the week and I am expecting a complete shootout in Dallas. Gallup should be viewed as a high end WR3 with upside.

Wide Receivers Sit ‘Em

Courtland Sutton missed all of week 1 with a shoulder injury he sustained in practice. Sutton has a lot of draft capital as most people drafted him in around the 6th round if not earlier, but this is not the game you start Sutton. Sutton is expected to play this week against the Steelers, but he certainly will not be 100%. Besides that, Sutton does not travel into the slot very often, which means he will be matched up with one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Joe Haden. I am staying away from Sutton this week and would not feel comfortable using him as anything more than a low-end WR3 at best.

Robby Anderson turned 8 targets into 6 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown last week. Truthfully though, he was less impressive than his stat line suggests. Anderson caught a 75-yard touchdown, which made up for nearly all of his fantasy production. The touchdown was due to the safety undercutting the ball and led to an easy score. The Buccaneers locked Michael Thomas down last week for only 3 receptions and 17 yards before he went down with an injury. I anticipate Robby Anderson being a very boom or bust WR4.

Sammy Watkins has a tendency to show up in games and then disappear for the next few weeks. Do not be fooled by what he did to bottom 10 defenses like the Texans last week. Besides Tyreek Hill, it is nearly impossible to decipher which Chiefs wide receiver will produce in a given week. This week Watkins plays the Chargers who may have the best cornerbacks in the league between Chris Harris Jr., Casey Hayward, and Desmond King. Fade Watkins this week as he is a very risky WR4.

Tight Ends Start ‘Em

Jared Cook should be in everyone’s lineup this week. Cook had a great game last week with 5 receptions for 80 yard. With Michael Thomas expected to be out this week, Brees will lean on the veteran and provide him with more opportunities than before. Cook also has a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week who ranked second last year in touchdowns given up to tight ends. Expect Cook to be a TE1 this week with top 3 potential.

Dallas Goedert was by far the Eagles best player week 1 against Washington. Goedert finished the game with 8 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown. While Zack Ertz is the official starter, the Eagles run a lot of 12 personnel (two tight ends). Goedert played 81% of snaps compared to Ertz who played 85%. Both of these tight ends should be started, as the Eagles do not have many other options to throw to. Goedert is a TE1 with upside. 

Hayden Hurst turned 5 targets into 3 receptions for 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Seahawks. Even though that is not a good line, Hurst played on 78% of snaps and ran a route on 81% of Matt Ryan’s drop-backs. This week he plays a Cowboys defense who allowed the third most points to tight ends last year and just lost linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to a broken collarbone last week. Expect Hurst to be a low end TE1 in one of the highest over/under games of the week.

Tight Ends Sit ‘Em

Rob Gronkowski on paper is the Buccaneers starting tight end, but it did not appear that way week 1 against the Saints. Gronk was out targeted 6 to 3 by O.J. Howard who had his first touchdown with Brady. Gronk has Brady’s trust, but he has not played football in over a year and the last season he played was not a productive one. There are so many mouths to feed in the offense and I predict that Gronk will be the last one to eat.

Jimmy Graham looked every bit his age against the Lions week 1. While he had 25 yards and a touchdown, Graham looked noticeably slower. Graham plays the Giants this week who allowed Eric Ebron just one catch for 18 yards last week. Ebron at this stage in his career is much younger, quicker and faster than Graham. Graham will most likely be covered by safety Jabrill Peppers who plays physical and will not allow Graham to push him around. Peppers has not allowed a touchdown to tight ends since joining the Giants last year. I expect Graham to be a very boom or bust player this week.

Evan Engram has been considered a top 10 tight end ever since his breakout rookie year. Since then, injuries have caused inconsistency and uncertainty even when he is on the field. There were also rumors in the offseason that the Giants were looking to trade him. After last week's game against the Steelers, maybe the rumors were true. Even though Engram was targeted 7 times, he only had two receptions for 9 yards. This week he faces the Bears who allowed just two tight ends over 50 receiving yards last year. Engram has the potential to produce each and every week purely based on targets. But until we see more consistency from him and the Giants offense, he should be sat in your lineups.

 

Who is the WR2 in Green Bay? Does it matter?

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Who is the wide receiver two in Green Bay? Does it matter?

By Isuf Gega

 In the 2020 draft, most football analysts expected the Packers to draft at least one wide receiver. Instead the Packers selected: quarterback Jordan Love in the first 1st round, running back AJ Dillon in the 2nd round, and tight end Josiah Deguara in the 3rd round. They made up for it (not really but play along) by signing Devin Funchess in the offseason….who opted out of the first chance he got. So who is the wide receiver two in Green Bay after Davante Adams, and does it really matter?

 Before we dig into who the wide receiver two in Green Bay is, let’s see if it even matters. Aaron Rodgers became the starter for the Packers in 2008 and played at least 15 games per season from 2008-2012. Rodgers' WR2 finished on average as the WR24 through those years. Pretty good. From 2013-2019 Rodgers played 16 games in every season except 2013 when he played 9 games, and 2017 when he played 7 games. Excluding those seasons, Rodgers WR2 has finished on average as the WR35 2013-2019. The average finish is not as high in the second half of Rodgers career, however Rodgers was able to sustain two top 10 wide receivers in 2014 and 2016. In 2014 Randall Cobb finished WR7 while Jordy Nelson finished as the WR3 and in 2016 Davante Adams finished as the WR8 while Nelson finished as the WR1. There is certainly some optimism there for Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Equanimeous St. Brown.

Allen Lazard

 I am not going to do a deep dive into Allen Lazard [<<<Click the link to see more] as Tommy Harvey already has. However, what I will mention is that Lazard is being drafted as the WR65. If you remove the first 5 games of the 2019 season when Lazard did not receive a single target, he finished WR49 weeks 6-17. The departure of Geronimo Allison and Jimmy Graham leave behind 115 vacated targets. While Jace Sternberger is the projected tight end, he did not have a single reception in 2019. It is safe to assume that he will not see all of the 60 vacated targets Graham left behind. Lazard with more targets should not be drafted as the WR65. We have already established that in the last 5 full seasons Rodgers played, his wide receiver two on average finished as the WR35 and in 2/5 season they finished as a top 10 wide receiver. Lazard may be the reason why the Packers did not draft a single wide receiver in the entire 2020 draft class.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling stands at 6’4” 206 pounds. While he fell behind Allen Lazard in the depth chart last year, the departure of Geronimo Allison will help Scantling significantly. Allison is no longer with the team and left behind 55 targets and an open slot role. Scantling is very slot dependent and averaged more points per target in the slot than he did in any other formation. Scantling is also fast. His 40-yard dash was 4.37, good enough to land him in the 96th percentile while his speed score of 117.6 landed him in the 97th percentile. Scantling will need a lot of things to break right for him and will likely only be the WR3 on this offense, but going back into the slot may be the break he needs.

Equanimeous St. Brown

After showing flashes in his rookie year, St. Brown missed the entire 2019 season with an ankle injury. Equanimeous St. Brown and Valdes-Scantling are both very similar in terms of size, built and where they line up on the field. They are both around 6’4 and 210 pounds. St. Brown took 253 snaps out-wide his rookie year as well as 99 snaps in the slot. While similar to Scantling, he is much slower. His 40-yard dash is only in the 71st percentile. While slower than Scantling, he has the support of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was excited to play with St. Brown last year before the season ending injury. Rodgers said, “almost quietly, I think EQ has had a really nice camp. I think he’s been very consistent. We haven’t talked about him a lot, which, in this case, is actually a positive. It’s almost like, ‘Yeah, well, he’s on the squad.’ He’s been that good. It’s almost been an understated, really solid camp for him.” St. Brown is going undrafted in redraft leagues, understandably so. However in dynasty he is worth a stash.

 

It is unclear who will be the WR2 in this offense. My bet would be on the easier choice, Allen Lazard. I expect him to finish as the WR35, however I would not be surprised to see him finish higher. 

 

 

Questioning Courtland Sutton

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Questioning Courtland Sutton

By Isuf Gega

The questions for the Denver Broncos are endless. After signing stud running back Melvin Gordon to a two-year deal, Denver proceeded in drafting arguably the best wide receiver to come out of college in the last half decade, Jerry Jeudy. They followed that up with drafting wide receiver KJ Hamler with their very next pick in the second round. Furthermore, tight end Noah Fant is only going to improve in his second year in the league. This surrounds Sutton with a plethora of questions. How will the signing of superior pass catching back Melvin Gordon affect Sutton? Will Jerry Jeudy and the emergence of Noah Fant cut into Sutton’s target share? Can Sutton consistently finish top 20 with Drew Lock as his quarterback?

How will the signing of superior pass catching back Melvin Gordon affect Sutton?

Vic Fangio has not had any prior experience being a head coach, but in 2019 the Denver Broncos gave him an opportunity. Even though there is not a lot of head coaching history, Fangio’s 2019 season says a lot about how his running backs will be used. In Fangio’s first year, Denver’s rushing attempts per game were in the top half of the league and running backs saw a 23% target share, good enough to finish 9th on the season. While the running backs were made a priority, the receivers were not. The Broncos finished in the bottom 5 in passing yards per game. It’s clear that Fangio wants his offense to flow through the running backs and the offseason addition of Melvin Gordon only solidifies that statement.

Since 2017, Gordon has consistently finished top-12 in average targets per game with 5.2 targets in 2017, followed by 5.5 targets in 2018, and 4.6 targets in 2019. He demands targets and in Fangio’s offense he will certainly get that. Not only is Gordon an improvement as the pass catching running back, he is also dominant as a goal line back. In 2019, Gordon was top-10 in the league with 8 touchdowns inside the red zone. Gordon’s success rate of 27% was good enough to be top-5 amongst running backs that had at least 30 red zone attempts. Keep in mind, Gordon only played weeks 5-17 due to a contract hold out and still finished inside the top-10 for red zone touchdowns. Phillip Lindsay only had 5 touchdowns with an 18% success rate and Royce Freeman only had 3 touchdowns with a 12% success rate. Denver was unable to run the ball into the end zone, which is why Sutton received so many targets. That is all going to change with the addition of Melvin Gordon.

 Will Jerry Jeudy and the emergence of Noah Fant cut into Sutton’s target share?

Sutton had a target share of 26%, which is amongst the highest in the league. Melvin Gordon will do a good job in lowering that and so will Jerry Jeudy.  Jeudy was selected 15th overall by the Broncos, even though Sutton just had a breakout year. Jeudy’s route running ability allows him to be phenomenal after the catch -- and his tempo, speed, and quickness are going to give any defense a difficult time. Jeudy will without question be the primary slot receiver on day 1 and will end up being a safety valve for Drew Lock along with Noah Fant.

Fant finished the season as the TE16 with 562 yard and 3 touchdowns from 40 receptions. Fant had two excellent games with over 100 receiving yards and one came with Drew Lock as his quarterback. He is a true receiving tight end. Fant’s speed and size allow him to blow by defensive backs or make the contested catch over them. Fant led all tight ends in 2019 with 8.3 yards after the catch per reception. The only reason his number do not look better is simply because the opportunity was not there for him. Fant and Jeudy are both Fangio’s first round picks while Sutton was actually never drafted by the head coach and was part of the old regime. That does not mean that Sutton is going to be traded, it just means that Fangio might have different plans after drafting two rookie wide receivers in the top-2 rounds of the 2020 draft.

 Can Sutton consistently finish top 20 with Drew Lock?

Courtland Sutton was selected in the second round of the 2018 NFL draft and was expected to be the Demaryius Thomas replacement. After a decent rookie year, 704 yards and 4 touchdowns from 42 receptions, Sutton tore it up his second year. In 2019, Sutton finished with over 1,100 yards and 6 touchdowns on 72 receptions...good enough to make him the WR19 on the season. Sutton finished off the year as a top-5 wide receiver in endzone targets with 14.

However, that dominant 2019 season came with 3 different quarterbacks and Sutton was awful...yes awful...with Drew Lock. In the 5 games they played together, Sutton finished outside of the WR36 four out of five games. The Broncos played some horrible defenses during that stretch too that included the Chargers, Texans, Lions, and Raiders. The Chargers defense finished 27th in fantasy points, Texans finished 22nd, Lions finished 30th, and the Raiders defense finished 28th in fantasy points. These defenses were horrible and Sutton and Lock had very little to no connection. The worst part of it all is that the Broncos actually won 4 out of those 5 games, only losing to the Chiefs. The Broncos were winning without much involvement from their stud wide receiver. It does not mean the chemistry cannot grow between them, but it does raise a lot of questions.

 

 

 

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