Joe Goodwin

Dynasty Dilemma: Jimmy Garoppolo

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Dynasty Dilemma: Jimmy Garoppolo

By Joe Goodwin

 

Jimmy Garoppolo has spent a majority of his NFL career as a “player-in-waiting.” In that, I mean he was a player that everyone was anticipating taking a leap into the upper tier of quarterbacks. And, based off of some games, he has shown the potential to be that player.

Garoppolo had performed as a top 12 fantasy quarterback in 4 games last year. In those games, he averaged: 34 passing attempts, 23 completions, 270 yards, 2.5 touchdowns, and 3 total interceptions.

In the 6 games he did not perform as a top 12 fantasy quarterback, he averaged 27.8 passing attempts, 18.8 completions, 216.8 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 total interception.

One thing is consistent in both, Garoppolo does not throw a lot of interceptions. He is smart with the ball and does not take many risks. In addition to his conservative throwing habits, Jimmy G does not run. He totaled 33 yards on the ground with a paltry 1.4 yard average per rush.

So, while many of the quarterbacks in today’s football have shown an ability to penalize teams with timely runs or magical escapes from pass rushers, Jimmy G is not that quarterback. Here’s a sample of quarterbacks that logged more rushing yards than Jimmy last season:

Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell, Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis, Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold, and Carson Wentz.

You get the point! Jimmy G is not running the ball. And, a few of those quarterbacks were able to amass more yards running in only 1 game.

Will reuniting with Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas (re)ignite his career? One can argue that Jimmy G has never had a receiver as talented as Davante Adams. However, the 49ers offense with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery was the best group of offensive weapons Jimmy G has ever had to utilize, and he was middling at best.

In short, there is no dilemma when it comes to Jimmy Garoppolo in fantasy football. If you already have him on your team, I would subtly check any interest within your league. A team with a lot of risk heading into this season (think owners of Jordan Love, Sam Howell, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett) and see if a solid backup is of interest. Anything in the 2nd or 3rd round of a rookie draft would entice me to make the trade.

Jimmy G “can” be a very efficient, solid quarterback capable of solid numbers as a Superflex starter in 2023. Based on his full body of work, Jimmy G is not a top 12 fantasy quarterback that would start in 1 QB leagues and should not be a target in dynasty leagues unless you have a long term plan in place and need a 1 year fill in.

I see Jimmy G as being a one year placeholder until your rookie or devy investments are ready to be every week starters beginning in 2024. So, if you are doing a startup draft now, he should be a 3rd QB (at best) with a more viable long-term plan in place.

Otherwise, pass on Jimmy Garoppolo shares in dynasty, and instead invest heavily in the next 2 years of quarterbacks with rookie and devy picks.

The Art of the Deal

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The Art of the Deal

By Joe Goodwin

Have you ever woken up to a notification that you have received a trade offer in one of your favorite leagues only to see the offer and think what a waste? Well, you and just about everyone else has had that feeling. Curiosity peaks me to then ask, what did you do with the trade offer that was a waste? Most managers crush decline and move on, and that is the biggest mistake in fantasy.

All too often, one manager is throwing out hypothetical trades to other managers to see what an interest level might be on a particular player. For example, I recently received a trade offer for CeeDee Lamb and Chris Olave.  Each player is my WR1 and WR2.  So, obviously, the return for my top two receivers should be a lot. However I was disappointed in the offer.  Not because of the value, Nuk, Dalvin Cook, and a 2nd round pick are not a bad place to start.  I just am not interested in DeAndre Hopkins in a dynasty league.

I could have easily hit decline and been on my merry way, but that’s not what makes a good trade. Instead, I reached out to the other manager and requested more if I was to lose my top 2 receivers;who also happen to be on most analysts’ top 10 dynasty receiver lists. The offer increased to include another 2nd round pick (2024) and a third round pick (2024) which now also included Derek Carr with Olave and CeeDee..

So, the “game” of trading had begun. Although the inclusion of Derek Carr in a superflex definitely tilted the request to “too much” in my book, it did provide valuable insight to me.

Through trial and error, I can now see three things the other team is trying to accomplish:

  1. They are dedicated to winning our league now by offering substantial draft capital
  2. By asking for my top 2 receivers, this team is in need of an upgrade at that position
  3. Other teams see me as a potential trade based on my current roster

When I responded that a certain player (DeAndre Hopkins) did not interest me, the trade cooled off…and that happens. However, I have gained a lot of information through the process.

If, at some point this season I decide to punt and reload, I can always follow up with this owner to see if CeeDee or Olave are still of interest to them, and I know the level of draft capital this manager is willing to part with to get a receiver. Lastly, if CeeDee and Olave are in my long term plans, I can pivot and potentially offer another wide receiver in a smaller package to the same manager.

In each of these scenarios, I maintain flexibility.  If I am too rigid with other managers, I’ll find it difficult to find trade partners when I am ready to make a deal.  People don’t want to deal with managers that are quick to dismiss offers and not willing to negotiate.

Many managers just see an offer that they don’t like, decline, and move on. This behavior can make you an “unwilling” trade partner and those managers may be hesitant to offer you trades in the future due to your response to the current offer. Instead, I URGE you to communicate with the other team. You may end up with a package you love. You just have to start the conversation. Or, you gain information that you can use later on in the season whether with this team or a different one.  I now have a baseline of the value of those players.

Yes, you may have to clearly state that you are not interested in moving a certain player, but since the door is open, you can suggest a different player to gauge interest. Regardless of what happens, always be willing to listen and negotiate with any team. Many deals get done because two teams decided to talk and listen to each other.

Good Luck and Happy Trading!

 

My First Season of Devy is Over. Now What?

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My First Season of Devy is over. Now what?

By Joe Goodwin

 

This article is taking a first person approach to how to manage your devy league team through my lens of managing my own team. This league began its startup draft last year and we are in our first off season of moves. First of all, you need to evaluate your roster and determine areas of strength and weakness and how to approach them during the off season.  

Be sure to check out our Devy Rankings

 

My QB situation is definitely in flux. I have Aaron Rodgers as my starting quarterback.  The information being released to the public does little to inform us what his future holds in Green Bay or anywhere else.  His retreat leads the way??? I’m in trouble if Rodgers thinks sitting in the dark for 4 days is coming to enlighten him on his NFL future.  

My other two QBs are Derek Carr (not a starting QB at the moment) and Jimmy Garoppolo (also not a starter).  With this, I will need to either devise a plan to trade for a quarterback that has a stable starting job to cover my superflex position, or draft a young QB in my devy draft and wait for reinforcements to come in a few years.  My quarterback situation is not a great one.  As I head into next season, I do not have a lot of confidence in the position until Jimmy G and Carr find starting jobs.  If they both find new homes as starters, I can plan for the future and hope both sustain Top 24 status.

However, if Rodgers retires and one or both of Carr and Jimmy G do not secure a starting position, I will need to trade for a bridge quarterback like Geno Smith or Kirk Cousins until I can establish a younger core of quarterbacks.  

With most devy leagues, CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, Will Levis, Hendon Hooker, and Anthony Richardson are most likely rostered.  And, since I don’t have any of those QBs on my devy roster, I will look toward taking a late round flier on Max Duggan, Tanner McKee or Jaren Hall; each offers some upside as a player that could possibly find a niche in the NFL.

And with this instability at the quarterback position, I will do a lot of homework on the current college quarterbacks as I focus my attention on how to best you my devy draft picks for this year.

My QB group is an area of need during this off season and I will be an active manager in the QB department until my depth rivals my next position group. 

 

The following players are on my roster:

Joe Mixon

Jonathan Taylor

Jamaal Williams

Isiah Pacheco

Jahmyr Gibbs

Dontrel Hillard

I currently love Mixon, Taylor, Williams and Pacheco with Gibbs joining that group.  Both Mixon and Taylor provide me with top tier starters and all Williams does is score touchdowns.  In addition, I have Pacheco and Gibbs as younger, buddening stars ready for prominent roles.  And, I still have Donovan Edwards on my devy roster that will most likely elevate next year.  During my devy draft, I will look to draft at least 1, maybe 2 running backs to ensure I have some long term depth at the position. And will look for a “high upside” running backs during our Rookie Draft (Chase Brown or Tyjae Spears). With the startable depth right now, I can afford to take a big swing during the rookie draft and hope for a lottery ticket.  With Joe Mixon and Johnathan Taylor as my mainstays, I feel comfortable at the position currently.  I will continue to add depth through the rookie and devy drafts, but I do not anticipate any major move this off season unlike my next position group.

My next position group is probably my weakest.

 

The following players are on my roster:

CeeDee Lamb

Chris Olave

Rashod Bateman

Robert Woods

Richie James

Romeo Doubs

Hunter Renfrow

Greg Dortch

Justyn Ross

Velus Jones

Obviously, the start of Lamb and Olave are strong and should hopefully provide many years of success.  Bateman, when healthy, will be a great 3rd receiver.  However, the depth falls off after that.  With no receivers being elevated from my devy roster this year, my only way of addressing the position is through the rookie draft or trade.  I am in luck, because this year’s rookie draft is full of “potentially” good receivers with upside that are not already on rosters like Jalin Hyatt, Rashee Rice, or Zay Flowers.

In addition to the rookie draft, I also want to evaluate my current developmental players at the position.  I currently have zero wide receivers on my devy roster.  This is a position that I will target with at least one, but more likely, two picks during our next devy draft.  I want to create a pipeline of players that will continue to fill in my roster every few years.  In general, I try to find receivers from programs that have had a track record of developing NFL receivers (Ohio St, Alabama, LSU).  Even though some freshmen and sophomores from those schools aren’t seeing a lot of playing time now, those schools have demonstrated an ability to bring along talent slowly, but impactful when asked to contribute.

If I am not successful addressing my depth issues through the draft, I will need to start talking with other managers about potential trades.  One word of advice for any novice devy player:

Do not trade rookie or devy draft picks for a player that will only provide you one or two years of moderate statistics.  For example:  Do not trade a 3rd round rookie for Adam Thielen.  Instead, look for players that may take a step forward in their role with their team that can be solid additions to your roster.  A few players I believe that fit that criteria are: Donovan Peoples-Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, or Khalil Shakur.

Or, take that rookie pick and find a player with a ton of upside and swing for the fences.  Do not waste assets for a player that is about to fade away from fantasy relevance.  My wide receiver group lacks depth, but does have impact at the top.  My next position group may not have any elite players, but has depth I mix and match depending on matchups.

 

My Tight End group has a lot of solid players, but no game changers.

I currently have:

Dawson Knox

Mike Gesicki

Will Dissly

Greg Dulcich

Again, the group isn’t remarkable, but I only need 1 to start and I have enough choices to make that happen.  I am also hopeful that Sean Payton can reignite Russell Wilson and the Broncos and potentially place Dulcich into top 12 territory with a more efficient offense that will utilize Dulcich’s abilities.  

Although the tight end position may need work, I currently have Brock Bowers on my devy roster. He, most likely, will elevate next year and provide more depth to the position group and may even be my starter right away.

I will also look to draft a tight end in this year’s rookie draft.  Some of my current tight end fliers are: Dalton Kincaid, Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave, Zack Kuntz, and Sam LaPorta.  Each, in the right situation, will offer bye week replacements and possibly more.

I will also look at this position group during my devy draft.  Although I have some other areas of need, I try to never let need overtake value.  If a highly rated tight end falls in the draft, I won’t reach for a position of need and pass up insane value on a tight end.  In the end, your roster needs to be filled with players that score points, not necessarily position dependent.

After evaluating my roster and potential needs,  I need to go through and determine what players are currently rostered but could be cut.  Please keep in mind: I am not cutting any players yet.  I am going through my roster to determine if any player’s current roster spot could be better utilized by a rookie or free agent that has a better path to playing time (and ultimately, more fantasy points).

The following is a list of players that are currently on my roster that could potentially be cut to make room for players selected in the rookie draft or added from the free agent wire.

Jarrett Stidham

DeeJay Dallas

Greg Dortch

Hunter Renfrow

Will Dissly

All of the above players are expendable.  And, yes, some do have some possible value.  Hunter Renfrow and Greg Dortch have some WR 5 or 6 value if their current situations improve; Renfrow needs a quarterback and Dortch needs an offense. As I make my rookie selections, I can stock my taxi squad or make the necessary cuts above to allow a player with potential time to find a role on his team.

With some of the “prep” work completed, I can now enter the off season of my first devy league and begin to build a dynasty through wise rookie draft picks, using developmental picks to swing for the fences, and always be willing to talk with league mates on potential trades.

Key Takeaways

Always remember to keep flexibility with your roster and picks.

Be willing to pivot for value, not need.

Never be afraid to make a bold move if you truly believe in a player/team.  

Never crush “accept” or “decline” on a trade within the first 30 seconds.  Alway evaluate the trade from many angles.

Be willing to negotiate with all league mates.  

Your rookie and devy draft picks are your lifeline to continued success and should be valued accordingly!

I will continue with updates as my off season progresses and my roster improves!

 

 

Reach out to me on twitter at: @JGoody77 for any questions, advice, or general fantasy chat. 

 

 

Weekend Booms and Busts (Playoff Week 2 Edition)

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Weekend Booms and Busts

(Playoff Week 2 Edition)

By Joe Goodwin

Saturday

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens

Boom: JK Dobbins.  He is running with speed and aggression.  And to hear he is still not 100% amazes me.  He is trying to put himself in the first round discussion for next year.

Bust: Tyler Allgeier.  He can’t replicate last week’s performance, can he?  Baltimore has the 3rd best rush defense, so my guess is “NO.”

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots

Boom: Joe Burrow.  He is in another world right now.  And he has so many weapons to use.  Burrow is putting up video game numbers.

Bust: Joe Mixon.  I just haven’t seen enough from this run game to count on consistently.  Saying that, I can see the Bengals offense using the passing game to win this one.

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

Boom: Amon-Ra St. Brown.  With 31 targets in the past 3 games, Amon-Ra is the Big threat in the air for the Lions.  They are on a heater and so is St. Brown!

Bust: DeAndre Swift.  From fringe 1st rounder this year, nothing has gone according to plan this year for Swift.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Boom: Derrick Henry.  Too obvious?  This Titans team goes as Henry does.  He will see a lot of work. 

Bust: The passing game of the Titans.  With Tannehill’s injury, this unit is a BUST!

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings

Boom: Dalvin Cook.  The Giants do not stop the run

Bust:

Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears

Boom: Stefon Diggs.  Last week, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith both had huge games against the Bears and Diggs will continue that production.

Bust: David Montgomery.  This pick is based on usage.  Buffalo is going to make things difficult for Josh Fields and crowd the box which will also make Montgomery’s day long.

New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns

Boom: Alvin Kamara: His usage is exactly where a “boom” player should be.  He gets unquestioned share of the carries and his involvement in the passing game is there 

Bust: Nick Chubb.  I hate to see “hips” as an injury for running backs.  On a cold day, it only takes one player to land on top of you to make your whole day bad.  I don’t like that risk for Chubb. He’s obviously a start (you got here on his back), but he has a lot of bust potential.

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs

Boom: Geno Smith.  I went a little contrarian with this pick.  Kelce or Mahomes is obvious.  Fresh off his Pro Bowl nod, I love Geno in this game. The Seahawks need a win, and they will need Geno at his best to make that happen.

Bust: Kenneth Walker.  His talent is immense.  However, I see a shootout in this game, and don’t see Walker factoring into as much. 

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers

Boom: Terry McLaurin.  The Commanders need a win to keep pace in the tight wildcard race in the NFC.  Scary Terry will need to be dynamic to try and stay in it for the Commanders.

Bust: CMC.  The Commanders run defense is stout and the 49ers may elect to use other weapons in this one.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Boom: Miles Sanders.  Without the dynamic Jalen Hurts under center, the Eagles will need to establish a run game with Sanders getting a lot of volume.

Bust: CeeDee Lamb.  The Eagles have had a lot of success bottling up other team’s best receivers and CeeDee will see a lot of Darius Slay in this one.

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers

Boom: DaVante Adams.  The Raiders have an exceptional weapon in Adams and should use it often against the middling Steelers pass defense.

Bust: Najee Harris.  A huge disappointment this year.  He has struggled to find touchdowns this year.  He needs TD’s to go “boom.”  Instead, he is a potential bust.

Sunday

Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins

Boom: Tyreek Hill.  He is the epitome of a BOOM player.  Everytime he touches the ball, he can take it to the house.

Bust: Christian Watson.  He is too touchdown reliant.  I needed 8 points from Watson last week to win my playoff matchup and had to wait until the final throw to get it.  

Denver Broncos at LA Rams

Boom: Cam Akers.  The volume is there for a BOOM to go off for Akers.  Now, can the blocking be there? 

Bust: Baker Mayfied.  Watching last week’s game without the heroics shows he is just an average QB.  If you need him in SuperFlex…hope he gets you double digits so you can move on.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals

Boom: Rachaad White.  A lot of talent.  And I can see his breaking off a few runs in this one.  He grabs those TD’s and BOOM!

Bust: DeAndre Hopkins.  Who is starting under center this week for the Cardinals?  Just the thought of that question does not bode well for Hopkins.

LA Chargers at Indianapolis Colts

Boom: Just Herbert.  He is getting his weapons back and he is too good to not enjoy the benefits of that health.

Bust: Michael Pittman.  Nick Foles gets the start for the Colts.  He is an all-time great Eagle, but not so much since then.  With no Taylor, this Colts team doesn’t look dangerous.

 

Starts and Sits: Week 13

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Starts and Sits: Week 13

By Joe Goodwin

 

 

In an effort to expedite this process for everyone, I will target a receiver, running back, tight end, and QB to start or sit from each team.

Sunday Early Afternoon

Cleveland at Houston

Start: Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, Deshaun Watson, Dameon Pierce

Sit: David Njoku, Brandin Cooks, Kyle Allen

The Texans have looked very much like a team that wants the first overall pick in next year’s draft.  Although fantasy owners are growing a little impatient with Dameon Pierce, he’s still a start in this game.  For the Browns, they are a full go in this game.  The Texans give up points to every offense they play.

Denver at Baltimore

Start: Latavius Murray, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews

Sit: Russell Wilson, Cortland Sutton, Greg Dulchich, Kenyan Drake

This game appears to be a low scoring affair.  I don’t see the Broncos passing attack doing much against the Ravens since all three top receivers are trending to a DNP.  I like Latavius Murray as a volume player.  Lamar Jackson and Marc Andrews are elite players and should always be started.

Green Bay at Chicago

Start: Aaron Jones, Justin Fields, David Montgomery

Sit: Aaron Rodgers, Allen Lazard, Cole Kmet, Darnell Mooney

Aaron Rodgers has not looked great with his thumb injury and also left last week’s game against the Eagles after a hard hit.  If Jaquan Brisker doesn’t play in this game, I ride Christian Watson breaking off another big play.  The Packers will lean on the run game; especially Aaron Jones.  Justin Fields returns to the field for the Bears and will look to get back to what he does best: run.  The Bears will use Montgomery and Fields to wear down the Packers.

Jacksonville at Detroit

Start: Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, Jamal Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff

Sit: Travis Etienne

I love how this game sets up for the Lions.  That “GRIT” that coach Dan Campbell preached in this summer’s “Hard Knocks” has finally showed up.  The Lions are playing hard and with passion.  I am a full start on the Lions this week.  I also love the Jaguars against this Lions defense that has been inconsistent.  Trevor Lawrence looked like he had the breakthrough every quarterback needs to solidify their ability to be a starting quarterback in the NFL.  Doug Pederson is hoping that’s the case too.

NY Jets at Minnesota

Start: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Mike White, James Robinson

Sit: Kirk Cousins, Garrett Wilson

The Jets have been a solid defense all season.  I believe they will “slow down” the Vikings offense, but not completely stop it.  The STARS of the Vikings offense will look the part.  Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson will be factors in fantasy this week.  With a bunch of injuries, James Robinson appears to be lined up for a bunch of touches in the backfield.  Mike White looked awesome last week.  He may not be that effective this week, but he will be worth a superflex start.

Pittsburgh at Atlanta

Start: George Pickens, Najee Harris, Cordarelle Patterson

Sit: Kenny Pickett, Pat Friermuth, Marcus Mariota, Drake London

I see this game focusing on ball control and running the ball.  Harris and Patterson are both stars.  I don’t see the passing games getting too much going in this game, but George Pickens seems to make highlight catches and I anticipate a game-winning touchdown to secure it.

Tennessee at Philadelphia

Start: Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Hurts

Sit: Ryan Tannehill, Robert Woods, Miles Sanders

The Titans always commit to Derrick Henry to win games, and this week is no different.  They will try to run down the Eagles defense similarly to the way the Commanders did.  It will be a close game, the passing game of the Eagles will be too dynamic to contain.  And, just when a defense thinks they have a team under control, Jalen Hurts breaks off a big run and changes the momentum.

Washington at NY Giants

Start: Brian Robinson, Chris Samuel, Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones

Sit: Taylor Heinicke, Terry McLaurin, Darius Slayton

I see the running games having a lot of success in this game.  Brian Robinson always falls forward and he loves to wear a defense down.  Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley will run around to soften the Commanders defense.  Those waiting for a big play in this game, may not see one and that’s why those players are a sit for me.

Late Afternoon

Miami at San Francisco

Start: Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, CMC, Deebo Samuel

Sit: Raheem Mostert, Mike Gesicki

Fireworks appear in the night sky for this game.  Both offenses will break off big plays, as each defense will try to limit the run games from the other.  Start all the usual suspects in this game.  

Seattle at the LA Rams

Start: Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Tyler Higbee

Sit: John Wolford, Cam Akers, Allen Robinson

Nothing has gone right for the LA Rams this year.  I believe the Seahawks are going to score early and often and all the key players are a start.  I just hope the Rams can score a little bit to keep the starters in the game long enough to pile up the stats.  With all the injuries to the Rams, the offense, under Wolford, will struggle mightily this week.  Higbee may accrue a few stats as he becomes the dump off option for Wolford.

Kansas City at Cincinnati

Start: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, JuJu Smith-Schuster

Sit: Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Isiah Pacheco

It appears the Bengals are getting healthy and could be very dangerous moving forward.  I want to wait on Chase and Mixon to make sure they are ready to contribute.  Burrow will continue to feed Higgins the ball.  The Chiefs will continue to get creative as their offense looks to utilize players in space.  Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are automatic starters as they are both the best at their positions.

LA Chargers at Las Vegas

Start: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams

Sit: Derek Carr

I can see another high-scoring game this week in the Chargers v. Raiders game.  Josh Jacobs absolutely exploded last week.  And since the Chargers have had their issues with stopping the run, this should line up for another big week.  The Chargers, like the Bengals, are getting healthier and will be hard to stop.  

Sunday Night

Indianapolis at Dallas

Start: Jonathan Taylor, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliot, Dalton Schultz

Sit: Matt Ryan, Michael Pittman, Tony Pollard

I am not sure why, but the Cowboys seem focused on giving Elliot the ball; even though Pollard has looked more dynamic.  The passing game has looked very consistent, as Dak looks for CeeDee on most pass plays.  Indianapolis will look to establish Taylor early.  With the front line of the Dallas defense always aggressive, the runs up the middle by Taylor should be available.

Monday Night

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Start: Alvin Kamara, Raschaad White, Chris Godwin, Tom Brady, Mike Evans

Sit: Andy Dalton, Chris Olave

The Saints offense was shut out last week.  While I don’t see a repeat of that performance, I don’t see the Saints exploding either.  Kamara will get plenty of looks as I only see him being effective for the offense.  Tampa Bay will get it going again after a poor, overall effort by the offense last week.  I don’t know why or how, but Brady to Evans hasn’t looked right lately.  I see that getting fixed this week.  White continues to be the strongest play in the backfield for Tampa Bay.

 

Starts and Sits: Week 12

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Starts and Sits: Week 12

By Joe Goodwin

 

 

After 3 pretty entertaining games on Thursday, we have a full slate of games still come.
No teams are on bye, so let’s get to it.

 

 

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (1:00pm)

Start: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Cordarelle Patterson, Marcus Mariota, Drake London
Sit: Taylor Heinicke, Brian Robinson, Jahan Dotson, Tyler Allgeier

Atlanta’s offense is a conundrum. It is evident they want to run the ball. And somehow, in the most Atlanta way, they have a 3 way backfield with Allgeier, Patterson, and Mariota all getting double-digit rushing attempts.. Last week, London saw 3 targets, 1 catch for 2 yards; it just happened to be a touchdown. He has got to get more targets. I’m hoping Arthur Smith reads my column and takes my advice: GET DRAKE THE BALL!
At this moment, it appears that Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson are in a timeshare; which is bad news for fantasy players everywhere. Since Gibson is also active in the pass game, I give the nod to him to produce for you this week. I love how Brian Robinson “falls forward,” but if he is only running the ball, he is touchdown dependent. I don’t love those odds. Washington’s pass game is nothing special. Each week, another player gets their ticket punched to be fantasy relevant. Atlanta’s pass defense is one of the worst in the league, so I will endorse the most talented receiver in McLaurin and be happy with WR3 numbers.

 

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00pm)

Start: Lamar Jackson, Marc Andrews, Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk
Sit: Kenyan Drake, Gus Edwards, Isiah Likely, Trevor Lawrence

Baltimore is seemingly getting healthier in the backfield, while at the same time, getting more “banged up” with their receivers. Lamar Jackson should win this game with his legs. And with Andrews back in the fold, he returns as the #1, #2, and #3 options for Lamar. The Ravens want to run the ball, but will Drake or Edwards be fantasy relevant? I side with neither at this point. Once that backfield starts to reveal itself, we can make a more astute call on the guy to go with. If I was forced to pick one, I would go with Drake. The Jaguars are built similarly to the Ravens in that they want to run the ball first. I see Etienne getting a lot of work; both on the ground and with screens in the flat. I also envision Chrisitan Kirk catching a few on crossing routes and using those legs to make plays. At some point, Trevor Lawrence may be in Superflex play, but not right now. His propensity to throw interceptions in the red zone has to stop.

 

Chicago Bears at New York Jets (1:00pm)

Start: David Montgomery, Mike White, Michael Carter, Garrett Wilson
Sit: Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, James Robinson

All week we have heard Justin Fields is nursing a shoulder injury. STAY AWAY! Most QB’s, as soon as you hear “shoulder”, you immediately search for the backup. The Bears hardly use Fields to throw the ball anyway (lol), but it's going to be one hard tackle, and they sit him. I just don’t like those odds. Instead, I will ride with David Montgomery as a workhorse this week. The Jets made a change at QB after Zach Wilson can’t look his teammates in the eyes and say, “Sorry.” Well, in the NFL, the guys in the locker room are all you have. I think Mike White is a SuperFlex play this week. He likes to be mobile and he may see $$ signs with this opportunity. I like the Jets rallying behind White this week and I see the offense humming. The Bears defense just doesn’t seem to have anything going since they traded away their best defensive players in Quinn and Smith.

 

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (1:00pm)

Start: Semaje Perine, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Derrick Henry
Sit: Joe Mixon (injury), Hayden Hurst, Ryan Tannehill, Treylon Burks

Joe Mixon has been ruled out for this game. Last week, Perine took advantage of the opportunity and scored 3 touchdowns. I don’t expect that type of output, but he will have plenty of touches. With Tennessee, they have been susceptible to giving up a lot of yards in the air. That is music to Joe Burrow’s ears. He will throw a lot in this game. I don’t want to pick between receivers, so I am rolling with all three. With that many mouths to feed, I'm going to sit Hayden Hurst this week to see how the targets pan out. If Chase does not start this week, Hurst could be a deep start for those that need one.
I’ve seen a lot of hype for Treylon Burks this week. I am not buying it. The Titans only go when Derrick Henry goes. Right now, he is who you start with the Titans. And move on.

 

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (1:00pm)

Start: Latavius Murray, Cortland Sutton,
Sit: Chase Edmonds, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, DJ Moore, D’Onta Foreman

The Broncos offense has been slow and inconsistent. Latavius Murray is getting the touches in the backfield (bye, bye Melvin Gordon). I can see the Broncos trying to get Chase Edmonds more involved, but I would not start him till we know more. Courtland Sutton is the go-to guy in the air and will continue this week.
After looking over last week’s boxscore, it appears that ZERO players on the Carolina offense are worth starting in fantasy. And I don’t see any reason to think this offense will be able to correct that inefficiency. Stay away.

 

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (1:00pm)

Start: Dameon Pierce, Nico Collins, Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill
Sit: Kyle Allen, Brandin Cooks

After last week, I seriously considered Dameon Pierce as a sit. However, after Houston decided to sit Davis Mills, who else do they have??? They will lean on Pierce, so I love the volume. And for some reason, I got a feeling Nico Collins is going to get some chances this week. Game flow will not be in Pierce’s favor, but he is the safest play. Miami is a FULL SEND on all things offense. Let’s hope Houston can score enough to make the 2nd half fantasy viable for the Miami offense.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (1:00pm)

Start: Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jacoby Brissett, Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper
Sit: Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt

Think this backfield will get more interesting when Fournette is healthy. Until then, there is little drama about starting Rachaad White. The dude is talented. The passing game is getting better each week. Roll with both Evans and Godwin this week. I can see both getting TD’s this week. Somehow, Nick Chubb was bottled up last week. I don’t see that happening two weeks in a row. The passing game, at times, looks really good. I endorse Brissett and Cooper this week. I think this game goes for a lot of points.

 

LA Charges at Arizona Cardinals (4:05pm)

Start: Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins
Sit: Mike Williams, Josh Palmer, Kyler Murray, Trey McBride,

There might not be a happier QB in the league right now than Justin Herbert. He is getting back his favorite targets. I can see Ekeler getting his normal touches and being effective in this game. The Cardinals defense isn’t scary and Ekeler is the perfect type of player to take advantage. Kyler Murray is rumored to be returning to the field this week. I hate to see mobile quarterbacks with hamstring problems. I would hold off starting Murray if you can. He is most effective when he is scrambling and with a sore hamstring, that takes away his best asset. James Conner continues to find ways into the endzone. Until he gets lost and can't’ find it, keep starting him and roll with those numbers.

 

Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (4:05pm)

Start: DaVante Adams, Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
Sit: Josh Jacbos, Derek Carr, Mack Hollins

Seeing Josh Jacbos pop up on a late week injury report scares me away. I don’t want any running back starting if he’s not 100%. Avoid. The passing game looked better last week. However, I’m not sold. I believe Adams will get his opportunities, but I would stay away from Moreau, Hollins, and company.
Kenneth Walker has been as good as advertised. Walker was the clear #2 behind Breece Hall in rookie drafts, but at the end of the season, I don’t believe it's that clear. Both have been THAT good. The Geno Smith revival tour will continue this week. Roll with both DK and Tyler and enjoy this game. I see this game with a lot of points.

 

LA Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (4:25pm)

Start: Allen Robinson, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce
Sit: Cam Akers, Van Jefferson, Isaiah Pacheco

Not sure how much worse it could get for the Rams. The Super Bowl champs have fallen as far as any previous winner can fall. Not a whole lot to get excited about their offense and would look elsewhere for fantasy production. Kansas City begins and ends with Mahomes to Kelce. JuJu is apparently returning this week. I can see starting him if you need him. Otherwise, let him get back into the groove and start him next week.

 

New Orleans at San Francisco (4:25pm)

Start: Alvin Kamara, CMC, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jimmy G
Sit: Andy Dalton, Elijah Mitchell

Andy Dalton looked inspired last week against the Rams. I don’t see that continuing against the 49ers. Alvin Kamara is the fantasy player to start this week. With his work on the ground and in the air, he’s worth the start. Chris Olave has been good. I’m not sure if he's a surefire start this week, he is a definitely a low floor/high ceiling start. San Francisco can be scary on offense. They have a lot of weapons. Does Jimmy G have what it takes to utilize all those weapons? New Orleans will give up yards this week and I see them mainly in the air. Elijah Mitchell is too TD dependent to start with confidence. However, he may benefit from game script if they get out to a big lead.

 

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (8:20pm)

Start: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Devonta Smith, Jalen Hurts
Sit: Aaron Rodgers, Christian Watson, Miles Sanders

Green Bay is going to have to control the ball this week to win. I see a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Start both and hope for a slow, methodical game that uses the ground. I don’t like Rodgers and the passing game in this one. I told you here last week to stay away from the tight ends, and that was sound advice. The Eagles looked uninspired last week. I hope they get more dynamic this week and get those receivers open in space. As long as Jalen Hurts is running the ball, he deserves to start.

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (Monday Night Football)

Start: Najee Harris, Pat Friermuth, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Matt Ryan
Sit: Kenny Pickett, Diontae Johnson

This is a Pittsburgh offense that has not had a lot of bright spots. I am projecting a game flow that sees a lot of run plays; from both sides. Start the running backs. In the end, I see the Colts being able to throw a little and I will ride Pittman and Ryan. The Steelers have not gotten any consistency with the passing game. Does that change this week? I see no indications of that being the case. Pat Friermuth will get enough production to warrant a start, but the receivers have had a hard time getting going.