Joe Goodwin

Running Back Stock Watch

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Running Back Stock Watch

Every week, we see the ups and downs in fantasy football. Some players struggle to find playing time, and we drop them for the next flashy player the following week. Ultimately, fantasy managers chase points; expect the previous week's output or better the following week. Or, a devastating injury wreaks havoc on our key players, and we are scrambling to find a replacement worthy of a roster spot. Running back is one position that seems more volatile than the others. And this season has provided fantasy managers with plenty of concerns at the running back position. We were starting with the off-season drama that surrounded Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley to the season-ending injury to Nick Chubb.

The Running Back Stock Watch is here to keep you ahead of the rest of your league and be ready to fill any roster situation your team encounters during the season. And because the position has more hills than a roller coaster, don't be surprised when a player's stock is down one week and up the next. Welcome to the Running Back Stock Watch!

Stock Up

De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

In case you are the ONE person that hasn't heard, the Dolphins offense scored 70 points last week! A big reason they are scoring a ton of points is that the running game of Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane forces opposing defenses to pick their poison. Only now, most defenses have chosen to limit Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (that has yet to work). In week three, De'Von Achane (pronounced A-Chan, not A-Chain) ran the ball 18 times for 203 yards and two touchdowns and then added four receptions for 30 yards and two more touchdowns. It was a dominant performance by the rookie from Texas A&M. On ESPN, Achane is owned in 16.5% of leagues; on Yahoo, he is held in 43% of leagues. This week's matchup against Buffalo will not yield the same results as last week. However, he must be chased this week if you want that explosiveness on your roster. For those leagues that utilize FAAB, he is worth 40%-50% of your budget.

Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints

If Achane is impossible for your team, this may be the last week to grab Kendre Miller. After getting his first action in the NFL against Green Bay, Miller rushed nine times for 34 yards. Although it wasn't a tremendous performance, it is enough for me to notice his breakout is soon to come. Alvin Kamara is returning soon, but Miller is the star in the making in New Orleans. Miller is finally healthy and ready to roll as his stock is rising. Some may fear that Tony Jones is still lurking to take those valuable touches away, but I assure you that Miller is the best running back on the roster and should steadily see his snap share rise from this past week's 34%.

Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns

After the gruesome injury to Nick Chubb, many in the fantasy world took a bow by correctly predicting Jerome Ford as a pivotal handcuff to draft in the later rounds. In relief of Chubb, Ford ran for 106 yards with a receiving touchdown. In his first week as the starter, Ford grabbed two touchdowns: rushing and receiving. There is still a chance that Kareem Hunt may eat into his volume, but Ford has some solid flex appeal after three weeks and three touchdowns.

D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles

If you thought Swift's performance against the Vikings was a byproduct of Kenneth Gainwell's injury, then last week should have resolved that doubt. In the past two weeks, Swift has 305 rushing yards. Running behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines, Swift is locked in as the featured back in the Eagles attack, and if he's still available in your league, swiftly pick him up.

Latavius Murray, Buffalo Bills

Latavius Murray is 2nd on the depth chart in Buffalo behind James Cook. It was thought that Damien Harris would be the "next man up" in this potent offense. Although James Cook is the clear one, Murray is getting enough work to use as a bye-week replacement. Murray is seeing a consistent 25% snap share and has been used in the rushing and passing game plans. Murray has been touchdown-dependent so far this season, but with many key running backs unable to find the end zone, it isn't bad that Murray has been able to find it twice.

 

Stock Down

D'Onta Foreman, Chicago Bears

For the 2nd straight week, D'Onta Foreman was a healthy scratch for the Bears. With Roschon Johnson starting to emerge as a lead back, Foreman has seen his opportunities blocked by the other runners, Travis Homer and Khalil Herbert. Foreman may benefit from being cut and another team picking him up. For now, as long as he is a Chicago Bear, he will not find enough volume to be a valuable fantasy contributor.

Jeff Wilson, Miami Dolphins

Jeff Wilson has not been active for a Dolphins game with a knee injury this season. However, after seeing the Achane blow up, Wilson has yet to have a clear path to playing time outside an injury from Mostert or Achane. Let another manager wait for Wilson to have a chance. Jeff Wilson's stock is plummeting.

Cam Akers, Minnesota Vikings

It may seem strange to see Akers on the stock-down list, but after seeing Alexander Mattison get 20 rushes for 93 yards last week against the Chargers, Akers may still be in a timeshare similar to his time as a Ram. If you waited a week before adding him, wait a little longer. Akers and Mattison are similarly skilled players. The Vikings may go with the hot hand weekly, a disaster for fantasy managers.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry has been on many analysts' lists to hit the "wall" with his production. And yet, he has been a consistent Top 5 running back when healthy over the last five years. It appears that Henry may have hit the wall in 2023. In last week's game against Cleveland, Henry ran the ball eleven times for 20 yards. Game flow took Henry out of the game plan, and in came Tyjae Spears. Henry was more successful than Spears was against the Browns on a per-touch basis. However, Henry's best days seem to be behind him. Spears was a popular sleeper pick by managers, but if he is available in your league, grab him quickly. Spears instantly becomes a fantasy darling when the wheels officially fall off Henry's ride.

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers

With an injured Aaron Jones not playing, last week's game should have been Dillon-Time. Instead, Dillon was so ineffective Patrick Taylor (who?) grabbed a 39% snap share against the Saints. Dillon has just looked slow this season. Against the Saints, Dillon ran the ball eleven times for 33 yards. You can dump your Dillon shares now. I was lucky enough to dump Dillon and grab Achane in one of my leagues. Yup, true story!

Jets Running Backs (Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook)

The Jets had such high hopes for this season. After week one's performance by Breece Hall, many thought they had a league winner they drafted in the 4th round. In the Jets' game one against Buffalo, Breece Hall went off for 127 yards rushing on ten carries. Since then, he has just 27 yards rushing in two games. During the same span, Dalvin Cook has just 58 yards rushing and 42 yards receiving. I hate to drill a team when they are down, but unless something drastically changes for the Jets, the offense is no longer viable in fantasy.

Week 2 Observations: IDP Edition

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IDP Observations: Week 2

It was an exciting Week two of fantasy football. The IDP community is starting to understand the various schemes teams use and snap share distribution. Week Two has concluded, and we are beginning to see the emergence of some veterans who were terrible in week one and the rise of some younger players as they get more comfortable in their systems. These notes and more in this week's IDP Observations: Week 2 Edition.

Players Who Balled Out this Weekend

Micah Parsons, DE, Dallas

I am convinced that Micah Parsons read my article last week, listened to my "Call to Action," and delivered the production we expect to IDP managers. With two sacks, a forced fumble, and four tackles, Parsons has returned to dominating defenses from many angles and will continue to do so until an offensive coordinator starts to use two linemen to block him; that may be the only way to stop him. Parsons has returned to the elite-level players in IDP.

Danielle Hunter, LB/DE, Minnesota

Danielle Hunter may have been the best player on the field for the Viking's defense against the Eagles on Thursday night. Hunter notched eight total tackles. His impact was felt most by the three sacks he recorded against Jalen Hurts, and Hunter's week one also included seven tackles and one sack. On the season, Hunter has 15 tackles and four sacks. If Hunter has been foolishly left on your IDP waiver wire, grab him and reap the benefits.

Julian Love, S, Seattle

I'll admit I wasn't a huge Julian Love fan heading into this season. I believed Love switching from the Giants and joining a deeper defensive backfield in Seattle would hamper his IDP stats. Then, Love goes out and posts 22 tackles in the first two weeks and a fumble recovery. So far, Love will be a consistent producer of tackles and should also contribute in other categories.

Frankie Luvu, LB, Carolina

In the Panthers' loss to the Saints, Frankie Luvu made every attempt to suppress the Saints. Luvu made nine tackles, two sacks, and three tackles for loss. On the season, Luvu has 14 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Last night was the standard IDP managers expect from Luvu, and I anticipate more nights like last night.

Players on the Upswing

Jonathan Cooper, DL/LB, Denver

Jonathan Cooper showed up BIG in the heartbreaking loss to the Commanders on Sunday. Cooper had eight total tackles, two sacks, and one forced fumble. With only a 52% snapshare this week, let's hope the Broncos give Cooper more opportunities to shine, and those IDP numbers may enter the range of a player who is a "must-start."

Dax Hill, S, Cincinnati

Week one saw Dax Hill post six tackles and one interception. In week two, Hill had 11 total tackles. I like what I see out of Hill, and the Bengals are using Hill on at least 73% of the snaps. If you need help at DB, Hill offers enough upside to roster at this point.

Deommodore Lenoir, DB, San Francisco

In 2022, Deommodore Lenoir had a solid 77-tackle season with one interception and a sack. In 2023, Lenoir quickly started to rack up IDP stats that have caught the attention of many IDP managers through the first two games. Lenoir has 19 tackles and one interception to start the year. With his playing time increasing, Lenoir may establish himself as a solid IDP contributor in deeper leagues.

Players on the Downswing

Lavonte David, LB, Tampa Bay

After week one, IDP owners may have yet to be impressed with Lavonte David's production, but it wasn't horrible. However, some managers may be tempted to cut bait after this week's two-tackle performance. And I fully support that decision. David is not worth rostering at this point. Too many other starting linebackers are worth rostering with a TON more upside than David. Lavonte David may have been an elite IDP player in the past, but that's precisely where his production is: in the past.

Shaquille Leonard, LB, Indianapolis

Shaq Leonard has consistently seen 60% of the snap share through the season's first two games. In game one, Leonard notched eight tackles, and in game two, there were three tackles. 11 total tackles for a linebacker on the field that much is not stellar. Conversely, Zaire Franklin has seen a bit more playing time (70% and 84%) but has also notched 30 tackles and a forced fumble. With Franklin performing at an elite level, Leonard's long-term future is more complex than it once was. Leonard was once automatic to log 120+ tackles a season, but that player no longer appears to exist. Leonard may be a situational linebacker, which will extend his playing career but does not help IDP managers.  

Teammates that Dominated

Robert Spillane and Divine Deablo, LB, Las Vegas

With a combined 24 tackles and two sacks, Robert Spillane and Divine Deablo made every effort to keep the Bills from scoring, but it wasn't enough in the Raiders' 38-10 loss. Although the Raiders' defense as a unit could have been better, Spillane and Deablo can be helpful as pieces in IDP if you are looking for depth pieces.

Quay Walker and De'Vondre Campbell, LB, Green Bay

Thirty-one combined tackles for the Green Bay linebacking duo in week two were solid. Ideally, we see other contributions from interceptions and forced fumbles for IDP. That would have been last week, as Walker had a pick 6 in the Bears game. This duo should be the heart of the Packers' defense and will accumulate a ton of tackles in the process. They need to notch more countable stats to elevate to "must start" in IDP. 

Alonzo Highsmith and T.J. Watt, LB, Pittsburgh

One thing has become clear during Monday Night Football games: Pittsburgh wins. Last night, they won that game because of the dominating defensive performance by Alonzo Highsmith and T.J. Watt. Highsmith began the Steelers' scoring with a 30-yard interception for a touchdown on the first offensive play by the Browns. T.J. Watt sealed the game with a strip-sack of Deshaun Watson, recovered the fumble, and returned it for a touchdown. Combined, Highsmith and Watt had 11 tackles, two sacks, three tackles for loss, one fumble recovery, one interception, and two touchdowns. A great game by both IDP mainstays!

Bueller? Bueller?

Nick Bosa, DE, San Francisco

Micah Parsons heard my call to action. Nick Bosa (and a few others ) did not. This past week against the Rams, Bosa had just one tackle and one assist. I'm not recommending dropping Bosa in any format. However, our patience is wearing thin. Let's hope Bosa bounces back against the Giants.

Haason Reddick, DE, Philadelphia

Similarly to Bosa, Haason Reddick has been missing in action this season. The Eagles' defensive line loves to rotate players in and out. So, this season may not replicate last season for IDP owners. With two games in the books, Reddick only has one tackle and ZERO sacks to his credit. Reddick's lack of a fast start will require patience from IDP managers. However, you may have to look elsewhere for your DL spot if weeks like the past two keep happening. I've already seen the social media posts asking, "Is it time to drop Reddick?" Although frustrating, you must be patient with players relying primarily on sacks to accrue IDP points. Let's check back in two weeks to reassess.

Jordan Poyer, DB, Buffalo

Where has Jordan Poyer been for the Buffalo defense? After a so-so first game with seven tackles, game two against the Raiders saw Poyer record just three tackles. For a DB that many expected to be one of the top DBs in IDP, Poyer has not lived up to expectations. His snap share has been down this season. Let's hope he sees the field more in week three and those numbers improve.

Quirky Stat Line of the Week

Tre Brown, S, Seattle

Tre Brown did a little of everything this week, as he recorded 1 sack, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble, and 1 touchdown. He did make four total tackles. Talk about checking off all the boxes! Brown has notched games of 61% and 55% snap share. If that number holds (or increases), he may be an exciting flier if you need a DB for your IDP roster.

IDP Man of the Year Stock Watch

I'll list players making a case to be the IDP Man of the Year each week. This is my version of the most outstanding IDP player. Each week, the list will include players who consistently put up great IDP statistics and are in the hunt for the IDP Man of the Year Award.

  1. T.J. Watt, DE/LB, Pittsburgh
  2. Danielle Hunter, DE, Minnesota
  3. Zaire Franklin, LB, Indianapolis
  4. DeForest Buckner, DE, Indianapolis
  5. Alex Highsmith, LB, Pittsburgh

* on the rise: Tre Brown, DB, Seattle; Micah Parsons, DE, Dallas; Frankie Luvu, LB, Carolina

Week 1 Observations: IDP Edition

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Week 1 Observations: IDP Edition

 

Week 1 is officially over. And, just like most fantasy football creators, I have observations of what I saw. We witnessed teams with Super Bowl aspirations lose in week one (Chiefs, Bills, Bengals), and other teams come away with surprising victories (Rams, Jets, Lions).
After digesting all of week one’s results, let’s analyze the IDP developments and their impacts on our fantasy football rosters.

Players that Impressed

Bobby Wagner, LB, Seattle

A player with 19 tackles would be first on the list. What is even more impressive is that Wagner is 33 years old! The next oldest player inside the Top 12 is 28 years old. It is obvious that Bobby Wagner still has a lot of treads left on his tires, and he is a must-start in fantasy. Wagner was my preseason pick for Defensive Player of the Year, and he has not disappointed after one week of play.

Kader Kohou, DeShon Elliot and Jevon Holland, DB, Miami

I was confident that the Dolphin’s defense would have one superlative IDP player from their defensive backfield; I thought his name was Jalen Ramsey. Instead, the Miami defensive backfield has three! Led by Kader Kohou, DeShon Elliot, and Jevon Holland, the Miami defense was patrolled by playmakers all over the field. The game was a shootout and provided plenty of opportunities for the DBs to shine. With 36 total tackles, one sack, and two tackles for loss, these three DBs were almost impossible to stop from making plays. With all three, targeting just one in IDP may be challenging, but Holland and Kohou offer the most in IDP.

Josh Allen, LB, Jacksonville

Entering the season, Josh Allen was a trendy “sleeper” pick. Allen always had a nice blend of tackles and sacks. However, as tackles went up, sacks went down. In week one against the Colts, Allen notched ten tackles and three sacks-a massive game-changer for the Jaguars. If Josh Allen can maintain some semblance of this level of play, he will be mentioned in the same breath as TJ Watt and Micah Parsons. This could be the season Allen puts it all together.

Jessie Bates, DB, Atlanta

Jessie Bates was one of the leaders of the defense in Cincinnati. Moving to Atlanta, that role needed to be clarified. However, after week one, Jessie Bates has declared himself the defensive spark plug. With ten total tackles and two interceptions, Bates was the clear leader on a defense that desperately needed production. Last year, Bates set a career-high with four interceptions and one forced fumble. If Bates can maintain some level of contribution in multiple areas as he did in week one, Bates may be looking at an All-Pro level season.

Players that surprised

Brandon Stephens, CB, Baltimore

The Ravens’ defense has plenty of players that can shine in IDP formats. However, Brandon Stephens was a pleasant surprise for fantasy managers. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Stephens had a solid rookie season and notched 78 total tackles and four passes defended. In 2022, he took a step back and recorded 37 total tackles. It appears Stephens may be back to his rookie form. I do not expect him to record this many tackles every week, but it is conceivable that he could break the 90-tackle mark this season with some contributions in tackles for loss and passes defended.

Germaine Pratt, LB, Cincinnati

Germaine Pratt has been a solid, dependable linebacker in the NFL. However, in IDP circles, he has been mediocre. A linebacker who only contributes in one statistical category does not make a significant mark as an IDP player. In week one, Pratt recorded 11 tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble. Pratt needs to be rostered in your league, so act fast! I am predicting a breakout season for Pratt in 2023.

Players I “felt” could Break Out and Did!

Jermaine Johnson, DE, New York Jets

I was as big of a Jermaine Johnson truther as there can be entering the season. In his 49% snap share, Johnson recorded five total tackles and one sack. If his snap share rises to 60% to 65%, he can put up huge numbers for fantasy purposes. For now, let’s bask in the glow that Johnson started week one with a strong game and hope his Jets defense can continue to provide him with opportunities to shine.

Reed Blankenship, S, Philadelphia

After a small sample size last year, Reed Blankenship earned the starting spot after CJ Gardner Johnson departed for the Lions. Blankenship is an undrafted free agent in his second year with the Eagles. In 2022, Blankenship recorded 34 total tackles with one interception. With the starting job his to lose heading into the 2023 season, Blankenship rewarded fantasy managers that invested early with 12 total tackles and two passes defended. Blankenship is well on his way to an outstanding IDP season. Blankenship has found himself with a rib injury and has been ruled out of this Thursday night’s match up against the Vikings.

Terrel Bernard, LB, Buffalo

After Tremaine Edmunds departed for Chicago, Bernard was the savvy IDP manager’s pick to inherit the volume vacated by the departed Edmunds. However, some thought rookie Dorian Williams might also pop. After week one, Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano look to be the tandem policing the middle for the Bills. Bernard tallied ten total tackles against the Jets. To elevate to the upper tier of IDP linebackers, Bernard must also contribute in other areas. If Bernard is available in your league, run, don’t walk, to grab him.

Ernest Jones, LB, Los Angeles Rams

When the Rams allowed Bobby Wagner to walk, many wondered what the Rams were thinking. Wagner was the key to the defense and would be missed greatly by a defense missing playmakers. Jones tallied eight tackles against the Seahawks in week one, with three tackles for a loss. In 2022, Jones tallied 114 tackles. On most teams, a player notching those tackle numbers is usually a focal point of the defense. However, Jones played alongside the future Hall of Famer Bobby Wagner for the last two years. Now, it is Jones’ turn to lead the Rams’ defense. For IDP, Jones will need to contribute in more areas other than tackles to be a genuinely elite IDP linebacker.
For now, grab him in all formats.

Jordan Whitehead, DB, New York Jets

Jordan Whitehead was one of Josh Allen’s favorite targets on Monday night, connecting on three passes. That previous sentence would be all right, except that Whitehead played for the opposing team. In addition to the three interceptions, Whitehead also notched two tackles. Teams may quickly learn that if you try to avoid Sauce Gardner, other players on the Jets defense can also make plays. I anticipate those types of interception numbers only a few times a season, but it shows Whitehead can read the quarterback and make plays.

Players that did not break out (yet?)

Devin Lloyd, LB, Jacksonville

I was a big fan of Devin Lloyd’s heading into this season. And I am not entirely abandoning him as a player I invested in on my Dynasty rosters. However, week one was a disappointment. Lloyd totaled three tackles and one fumble recovered. Those stats were not horrible, but coming from a linebacker, we need more from a player with a 72% snap share. Lloyd is a hold in Redraft formats, but if a similar performance like that occurs next week, Lloyd will be a release candidate.

Malcolm Rodriguez, LB, Detroit

Malcolm Rodriguez, the breakout star of last season’s Hard Knocks, saw his field time diminish in week one to just a 14% snap share. In that time, he only made one tackle. The Lions will use a three-safety look, as Alex Anzalone is the only linebacker locked into a steady snap share. Barring any injuries, Rodriguez is no longer worth rostering.

 

Players that disappointed

Micah Parsons, LB/DE, Dallas

This post is about something other than whether you should trade or drop him. That would be a ridiculous response after one week. However, we were hoping for more than three total tackles and a sack for a player who was the first defensive player taken in many IDP drafts. He is a great player and should rebound, but let’s hope he reads this and it motivates him to better things.

Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland

For the same reasons I listed Micah Parsons, I listed Myles Garrett. For a Top 3 DE in most formats, three total tackles and one sack were underwhelming for Garrett.

Nick Bosa, DE, San Francisco

A pattern with these top-tier defensive lineman is that their success revolves around their ability to cause havoc in the backfield. With only two tackles against Pittsburgh, better days are ahead for Bosa. Let’s hope we don’t see offenses chipping on Bosa to the point where he may not warrant the high draft capital most managers invested.

Kyle Hamilton, S, Baltimore

Besides notching three total tackles, Hamilton did not add any countable stats for IDP managers, as he was on the field for 76% of the defensive snaps. I expect a bounce back from Hamilton against the Bengals (hey, the Browns looked good against them), but monitor his output closely. At 6’4″ and 220 pounds, Hamilton is a prototype for modern-day safeties who can also move into the box and add support. Hamilton is capable of contributing in many ways as an IDP star.

Haason Reddick, DE, Philadelphia

Haason Reddick terrorized quarterbacks last year as he recorded 16 sacks in 2022. And although he can certainly return to that form again in 2023, his first game was not the start to make that goal a reality. Reddick tallied only one tackle against the Patriots. I expected better for a DE on the field for 58% of the snaps. Similarly to Parsons, Garrett, and Bosa, I expect a bounce back; I hope it comes sooner rather than later.

Injured Players to monitor

Jalen Pitre, S, Houston

Early in the game against the Ravens, Jalen Pitre took a blow to the chest and left the game due to bruised lungs. Pitre recorded two total tackles before exiting the game. Many IDP managers have high hopes for Pitre this season; let’s hope he can recover quickly and return to the field.

Nakobe Dean, LB, Philadelphia

While on the field, Nakobe Dean provided plenty of reasons for IDP managers to be excited about this season. In his 49% snap share, Dean made seven total tackles. However, Dean left the game in a walking boot and was placed on the IR. It will be four more weeks before we can see this promising linebacker on the field again.

Quay Walker, LB, Green Bay

One of the most impactful players to hit the injury report, Quay Walker, sustained a concussion in the Packers’ week one game against Chicago. On a 49% snap share, Walker had four total tackles, an interception, and a touchdown. IDP managers had a lot of high hopes if they punted linebackers and drafted Walker as their LB1. Let’s hope he returns to the field soon…

My First Scott Fish Bowl

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My First Scott Fish Bowl (Part 1)

By Joe Goodwin

 

 

 

My Scott Fish Bowl Origin Story

During late spring, Twitter becomes a buzz as the first wave of Scott Fish Bowl invites begins to roll out and hit registered mailboxes with an email proclaiming their inclusion into the Fish Bowl.

Asking yourself what is the Fish Bowl.

Well, this year is the 13th iteration of the Fish Bowl.

In the beginning, Scott Fish (and the FantasyCares team) decided since many fantasy managers are fearless in spending money to play the fantasy game they enjoy, why not include a charitable component to fantasy football?

And, with that, the Scott Fish Bowl (SFB) was born.

 

The primary purpose of the charity is Toys for Tots. However, the organization has aided many other organizations, including Coats for Kids, Go Pantry, Feeding America, ALS One, and many others.

What started as a small tournament to raise money for presents for under-served youths has become a considerable feather in a fantasy manager's cap when they are invited into the tournament, with the invites being so exclusive to a select number of participants.

And full disclosure, I am no different.

 

Once I heard of the Fish Bowl, I wanted to be in it. I saw all the Twitter posts from successful players who had been selected, and I wanted to experience the joy of posting my acceptance into the Fish Bowl.

 

In my first year, I did not get in. I was disappointed, but I moved on.

I didn't get an invite the following year, but I participated in a satellite tournament and was honored to participate. I wanted to win my division and be automatically invited to the following year's tournament. Well, that didn't happen, but the experience was terrific.

Last year, although still not receiving a Fish Bowl invite, I was happy to participate in another satellite. After getting acclimated to the format, I was ready to triumph. Well, I did have fun, but I did not prevail. The SFB format is like no other in fantasy football and requires some savvy and a lot of luck.

 

For 2023, my chances would be better to get an invite. Why wouldn't they be? I'm an accomplished writer for Dynasty Pros Football (that is sarcasm, I am entirely aware that I have accomplished very little).

And when the invites started rolling out in late May, I checked my email every few hours in hopes that a magical email would be there.

Well, I waited. And I checked. And I waited some more.

 

Then, on a glorious morning on June 1st, I saw the email I had waited years to get:

"Hey, Goody! Guess What? I am personally inviting you to be.."  

And with that, I was officially in the Scott Fish Bowl, or SFB13 for shorthand.

That day my coffee tasted better. The air was fresher. I had finally made my first Fish Bowl!

 

First, I donated to the Fantasy Cares organization (That's the reason for the tournament in the first place!!!).

I then made my much anticipated Twitter Post declaring my acceptance into the Fish Bowl.

The reception and congrats from other fantasy football creators were overwhelming. And I was now part of a select group of fantasy managers who play in the Fish Bowl.

I also got to check out the SFB merch available. If you have not seen it all, check it out here:

www.fantasycares.deco-apparel.com/designs

In case you were wondering, I selected the SFB John's Roast Pork Shirt in navy.

Also available are hats, shirts, and sweatshirts for all genders. And if it interests you, you can also purchase a customizable AVI that best represents you. 

All proceeds go to the Fantasy Cares organization.

 

 

Once the dust had settled on taking care of the extra-curricular activities, I had a decision to make: what division/draft do I want to participate in?

 

The Draft Type and Position

When you are accepted into the Fish Bowl, one of the new developments in the format is the Live Drafts!

In 2022, the Fish Bowl expanded to include live drafts across the globe.

I was excited to know that my hometown of Philadelphia was one of the many locations hosting live drafts in 2023.

I immediately targeted the Philly Live Drafts and then had to choose my division.

I could choose from: Geno's, Pat's, John's Roast Pork, or Charley's.

I based my decision solely on the sandwich I thought was best; I realize that may sound weird to some. Geno's and Pat's are tourist traps and offer only a "solid" cheesesteak. For those that have sampled many cheesesteaks, Jim's on South Street, D'Allesandro's, or Steve's Prince of Steaks all offer a cheesesteak that makes most sandwiches embarrassed even to be called a sandwich in comparison.

With that knowledge, I selected the John's Roast Pork Division; it was by far the best sandwich of the group.

 

Once I determined my division, I could select my draft slot.

Full disclosure, being in the middle (picks 5-9) of the draft is the worst possible position to draft from. That's my opinion. I hate the wait. I hate having a target but waiting for 10 to 18 picks before selecting. And most of the time, watching that target get sniped just a few selections before my own.

Picking at the beginning of the draft guarantees a manager a top-tier quarterback, an ideal situation to be in, with the format being Super Flex. However, the Fish Bowl has 3rd round reversal (3RR). Need to become more familiar with 3RR? After the 2nd round is complete, the draft reverts to the 12th team selected in the first round, and the draft continues. So, if you pick 1.12, you are also 2.01 and 3.01. Based on that information, I took the 12th pick in the John's Roast Pork Division. The 3RR is the crucial factor in wanting to select pick 1.12.

 

Pre Draft Preparation

With the draft spot not secured, I could begin my pre-draft preparation. A lot of people do not believe in mock drafts. And there are a lot of reasons why. Mock Drafts can be misleading, with managers drafting a "theory" to see how it looks.  

For example, one manager may be testing a theory of drafting RB, RB to start the draft, then letting the auto draft finish making the selections. We all know most managers are not just drafting by Average Draft Position (ADP).

So, I get why some managers don't like mock drafts.

For me, I'm different.  

I like to test theories. What if I don't pick a QB with my first two picks? What if I go zero RB? I want to try how these scenarios play out to see if the team build is something I like or not.

Before the actual draft, I participated in 6 mock drafts; some were filled with many motivated managers that were very involved, while other drafts saw as many as eight teams being auto-drafted at the conclusion.

 

Thank goodness for Geoff Lambert and the Going for 2 team!

Their discord server is a valuable tool for any SFB manager.

You can find mock drafts to participate in and get up-to-date ADP, cheatsheets, general chat, and even join a draft pick-specific group to share ideas.

That is an essential component of the Fish Bowl beyond donating to charity: building relationships with other fantasy managers through various social media sites.

I joined a Twitter group specific to those that had the 12th pick. And, even as I write this, it probably has at least 2-3 posts per minute with managers sharing intel on how their draft is going and what players are falling or rising.  

In addition to my "12th pick" group, I was also in a Twitter group specific to those of us that were live drafting in Philly, and once we all met at the draft, we even created a Twitter group for the John's Roast Pork division.

 

The Scott Fish Bowl is so much more than just fantasy football. Yes, that is the core of why all these relationships start, but as we continue to talk and grow as a smaller community, we are finding so much more than just a love of fantasy football. I am using this opportunity to meet new people and build relationships. If they haven't already, I hope those that read this get motivated to get more involved and forge new relationships with other SFB13 participants.

 

The Draft

With the 12th pick, my mock drafts showed me I would see a top 12 QB available and many wide receivers or running backs. The settings for the Fish Bowl lean heavily to tight ends and quarterbacks. Knowing this heading in, I would like to be able to draft Marc Andrews with one of my first two picks and select the highest remaining quarterback on my board. Well, with pick 10, fellow Dynasty Pros creator Steve Uetz selected Mark Andrews. And just like most drafts, I now had to pivot due to this "wrench" thrown in my direction. In addition to two tight ends being drafted before me, we also saw eight quarterbacks drafted (Hurts, Allen, Jackson, Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Fields, and Lawrence).

 

This is where the mock drafts helped me. I had planned for this scenario and would use that information to guide me to my best options. I could take my two favorite RBs and then stack up everywhere else for the next 5 to 6 rounds or go RB and WR to diversify. In my mock drafts, I liked the value of RB in the middle rounds, so I decided that RB, RB was not the best choice. With all the information available, and the anxiety of drafting live in front of 60 people, I grabbed my #1 RB and #2 WR in Christian McCaffery and Ja'Marr Chase.

And with that, my draft began.

 

With 3RR, I knew I would have a lot of options. I could grab a QB and secure at least one top-tier QB or go in a different direction. Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, and Kirk Cousins were the best available; although good QBs, I didn't think any were worthy of the 3.01.

In our draft, after Kelce and Andrews were gone, the tight end position was left with Hockenson, Waller, and Goedert. Then, the position takes a huge drop. I tettered back and forth on grabbing Hockenson and securing a Top 5 tight end in a league where tight ends are valued above all other positions. There were also a lot of wide receivers in the talent pool to choose from: AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Pairing any of those players with Chase would be solid, but the receiver position is the least valued in the format, and the position could be addressed later in the draft.

 

So, I turned my attention to the available running backs. The running backs available at this point were: Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Najee Harris.

So who did I choose? Based on this year's settings, Josh Jacobs would have been the overall #1 player in SFB. With his contract situation a little shaky, many fantasy managers have selected other players over him. So, I proudly walked up to the draft board and drafted Josh Jacobs with the first pick in the 3rd round.

 

Every draft is different, and at this juncture, my strategy of waiting on the quarterback was going to work.

One of my fellow draftmates looked at me and wondered out loud if my strategy of waiting on QB would work.

 

This is where the pre-draft work pays off!

I had tried this scenario multiple times and felt comfortable waiting till round 4/5 to address it.

After seeing Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, and Kirk Cousins off the board, I knew this was where I would draft my two starting QBs. My best choices at this point were: Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Jared Goff. All are good value at this point in the draft, but I decided on taking Geno Smith and Russell Wilson. I like to focus on the weapons a quarterback has to use during a game. I love the DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba trio in Seattle and Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy in Denver. Those two quarterbacks are ideally suited to lead my team.

 

At this point in the draft, my team is:

Christian McCaffrey

Ja" Marr Chase

Josh Jacobs

Geno Smith

Russell Wilson

 

Remember the pre-draft work? Well, here is where it paid off again.

I knew that the value at receiver would be there heading into the 6/7 turn, and I was ready to pounce. Before my next pick, six receivers, nine running backs, five quarterbacks, and 2 tight ends had been drafted.

Some fantasy managers overlook a player's heirarchy within the offense.

Some receivers may be extremely good but may also be the 2nd or 3rd option in their offense. At this point in the draft, I was able to draft two receivers that are both primed to be the WR #1 on their teams: DJ Moore and Drake London. I love adding both receivers to Ja'Marr Chase on my team. I considered stacking my two quarterbacks with their receivers, Tyler Lockett and Jerry Jeudy. However, I chose to go with receivers I believe will be the unquestioned top receivers on their respective teams. Full disclosure, the other player I seriously considered was Terry McLaurin. But I'll get to that in a minute…

 

Heading into my 8/9 turn, I had an incredible balance in my team. I still need to address the tight-end position, but I missed the elite guys and have decided to wait. Since we are a Super Flex league, 2 QBs can start each week. I like to ensure I have three QBs on my roster in Super Flex. And at this point, only a few remaining QB’s  are entering the season as a starter. I also was getting feedback from my nephew that he had been looking at some stacks (we discussed some of that earlier) and asked if I saw any still available. That is when I turned my attention to two stacks I thought could be successful this year.  

 

Option 1 was Kenny Pickett and Diontae Johnson. However, both were drafted just ahead of where I was.

The 2nd option was a stack I liked as more information on their usage for the upcoming season became available: Sam Howell and Jahan Dotson.

 

Earlier, I talked about how I considered McLaurin in my 6/7 turn but ultimately went with Moore and London. Hindsight being 20/20, I wish I had taken McLaurin over Moore. Then, my selection of Howell would have been a great stack at this point in the draft. So, I pivoted and took Howell and Dotson. I was encouraged by Dotson's seven touchdowns last year, two more than McLaurin.

 

So, at this point in the draft, I have the following:

QB: Geno Smith, Russell Wilson, and Sam Howell

RB: Christian McCaffery, Josh Jacobs

WR: Ja'Marr Chase, DJ Moore, Drake London, Jahan Dotson

 

I feel good about the talent I have drafted and encouraged with the players I like still available.

There is still plenty of work to be done in completing my first Scott Fish Bowl draft.

 

Thank you to all the fantasy managers in the John's Roast Pork Division for making this experience unforgettable.

 

Stay tuned for Part 2 to see when I address the tight end position and how my draft finishes.

Same Faces, New Places: IDP Edition

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Same Faces, New Places: IDP Edition

 

 

Every year, free agency changes the NFL landscape as teams try to improve their deficiencies. This past off-season, many top-tier defensive players left their previous teams for new ones. Players like: Bobby Wagner, Tremaine Edmunds, Javon Hargrave, and Jessie Bates all changed teams hoping for a better playing situation or a more lucrative contract. With those moves, the "same faces" have found "new places" to call home. Will their new teams provide them the same opportunities to produce like key IDP players as their previous teams? We will look into some familiar faces in new places as we analyze their current situations and outlooks heading into the 2023 NFL season.

 

DEFENSIVE LINE

 

Zach Allen, DL, Denver

Last Season, Zach Allen played the opposite of JJ Watt to form the pash rush for the Arizona Cardinals. Last year, Allen recorded 5.5 sacks (career high), 47 total tackles, and 8 passes defended. Now, Allen joins a historically strong defense in Denver. When Bradley Chubb was dealt away last year to the Miami Dolphins, the Broncos pass rush was not as effective. With the hiring of Sean Payton as Head Coach, and Vance Joseph returning as the Defensive Coordinator, the Broncos are hopeful this once-feared defense returns to its former glory. The hope is Allen with the edge rushers Randy Gregory, Brian Browning, and Drew Sanders, can bring back a pass rush to the Broncos the AFC West will fear. Zach Allen is a talented player that can notch double-digit sacks. If his total tackle numbers stay around 50, he will be a valuable addition to the Denver Broncos and your IDP lineups as a 2nd or 3rd DL in your IDP lineups.

 

 

Marcus Davenport, DL, Minnesota

Coming off his worst season yet, Marcus Davenport is heading to Minnesota to resurrect his career. Last year, Davenport notched 29 total tackles and only a half sack. Davenport is capable of double-digit sacks for the Vikings in the proper situation. Danielle Hunter hopes to pair with Davenport to create a similar sack attack that he had with recently departed Za’Darius Smith; last year, Smith and Hunter tallied 20.5 total sacks. Davenport may only project to reach 40 total tackles, but if he can return to his 2021 form and approach 9 sacks, Davenport can prove to be a valuable depth player in your IDP lineups and a solid compliment to Danielle Hunter.

 

 

Javon Hargrave, DL, San Francisco

Last year, Javon Hargrave and the rest of the Philadelphia Eagles defensive unit, combined to terrorize opposing offenses after they notched 70 total sacks; falling 2 sacks short of the 1984 Chicago Bears. Hargrave has now joined an equally talented defense in San Francisco. The 49ers hope Javon can approach last year’s sack total of 11 sacks and provide Nick Bosa with a viable “Robin” to his own “Batman.” Hargrave has been a solid tackles contributor, reaching at least 60 total tackles in each of the last two years. Hargrave is capable of matching those numbers for his new team and can even exceed those numbers as Bosa forces opposing quarterbacks from the edge. I foresee Hargrave notching an elite season for the 49ers and an upper-tier season for fantasy owners.  Hargrave will at least approach his numbers in Philadelphia with 65 total tackles and 8 to 10 sacks.

 

 

Za’Darius Smith, DL, Cleveland

Za’Darius Smith is now with his third team in the last three years. He was a Green Bay Packer in 2021, then a Minnesota Viking in 2022, and now a Cleveland Brown for the 2023 season. For his career, Smith has recorded 54.5 sacks; reaching double-digit sacks 3 times. Although Smith has faced some injuries the last few years, he looks to be in top shape during OTA’s this off-season. The Cleveland Browns hope Smith and Myles Garrett can form a duo that dominates the AFC North. Last year, Garrett posted 16 sacks, but the next closest player in sacks for Cleveland was Taven Bryan with 3. If Smith can record between 40 and 50 total tackles and elevate his sack numbers back to previous levels, Smith can be a valuable asset in most IDP formats. I believe 42 tackles and 8 sacks are in Smith’s future for this year.

 

 

LINEBACKER

 

The Twitter World has spoken and believes Tremaine Edmunds is in the best situation to continue as an elite IDP performer in 2023.

Keep reading to see who I believe has the most advantageous situation to return home dividends for your fantasy football team.

 

 

Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards, LB, Chicago

Edmunds leaving Buffalo was a surprise. However, with younger players in the position, it was time for Edmunds to move on from Buffalo. In my heart, I believe the Bears allowed Roquan Smith to move on, only to realize how essential the position (and Smith) was to the team.

Thus, the Bears signed Edmunds and TJ Edwards to fill the void. Similar to Buffalo, the Eagles felt a younger player (Nakobe Dean) was ready to ascend into a starter's position. This forced Edwards to find employment elsewhere. Tremaine Edmunds, in only 13 games last year, recorded 102 tackles and 1 interception. TJ Edwards tallied 159 tackles in 2022. Neither player has contributed in sacks for fantasy managers, which should remain the same in 2023. The Bears do not “get after the qb” as well as many other teams and this should produce high tackle numbers for Edmunds and Edwards. If your league uses tackle-dominant scoring, then Edmunds and Edwards are both worthy of being starters in your IDP lineups.

 

 

Bobby Wagner, LB, Seattle

It is said, “When no one else cares to listen, return home to a place of understanding.” I believe that applies to Bobby Wagner perfectly. Yes, he won a Super Bowl with the Rams. However, I never felt he was appreciated for his play in Los Angeles as he was in Seattle.  Bobby Wagner was a favorite of Seattle’s “12th Man.” Consequently, Wagner departs the Rams and returns home to Seattle; a place that understands him well. In 2022, Wagner grabbed 140 total tackles, 6 sacks, and 2 interceptions; which placed Wagner inside the top 10 in most IDP scoring formats. With Cody Barton leaving for the Commanders and Jordyn Brooks recovering from an ACL injury, Wagner will resume as the center of the Seahawks' defense. In redraft formats, Wanger is an absolute smash this year. At 32 years old, Wagner should be on the decline of his career. However, Wagner has NEVER recorded less than 100 total tackles in his career. For those playing in dynasty leagues, I project at least 2 more highly successful seasons before you will see a decline in production from Wagner. I just love the fit for Wagner back in Seattle. And, I think Wagner returns to the DPOY discussion this season and my choice to be an elite IDP performer.

 

Want to add Wagner to your IDP lineup?  According to the Dynasty Pros Trade Calculator, a trade of Greg Dulcich or Romeo Doubs for Bobby Wagner is a “fair trade.”  Check out our exclusive Trade Calculator to input your own proposed trade to see if your acquisition of Bobby Wagner is fair.

 

 

Kyzir White, LB, Arizona

The third Eagle to appear on this list, Kyzir White, heads to Arizona for the upcoming 2023 season. After recording 144 total tackles in his breakout season in 2021 for the Los Angeles Chargers, White had a solid 2022 for the Eagles. White tallied 110 total tackles last year; as White and Edwards patrolled the middle of the field and racked up tackles. I’m not 100% sold that White can duplicate that production. The Arizona defensive line is not capable of occupying blockers in the same way they did in Philadelphia. I am not excited about White’s prospects as an IDP contributor. If you start 2 to 3 linebackers, Kyzir White is a fringe starter. White is great in coverage, but his smaller stature will not benefit him in his tackle totals if blockers get to his level. Proceed with caution when drafting Kyzir White!

 

 

Drue Tranquill, LB, Kansas City

In 2022, Tranquill burst onto the IDP scene with 146 total tackles and 5 sacks; both career highs. It appeared that Tranquill was everywhere for the Los Angeles Chargers last year. This year, the Chiefs will not ask Tranquill to do as much. as his previous team. So, any expectations of a repeat of last year's numbers will disappoint fantasy managers for the 2023 season. Playing alongside fellow IDP stars Nick Bolton, Chris Jones, and L’Jarius Sneed, Tranquill will have a decrease in tackles and sacks. I still believe Tranquill is a viable IDP starter, just don’t expect another top 10 IDP season from Tranquill in 2023. My projections have Tranquill at 105 total tackles and 3.5 sacks.

 

 

Kaden Elliss, LB, Atlanta

As a Saint in 2022, Elliss tallied 78 total tackles and 7 sacks. For the Atlanta Falcons in 2023, they will pair Elliss with Troy Anderson to form a dynamic linebacking tandem. Anderson should log more tackles, but Elliss is a great blitzing player that could match (or even exceed) his 7 sacks from last year. It all depends on the usage by the Falcons. I can see Elliss playing both inside and outside linebacker. With his versatility, Kaden could elevate his play enough to warrant starting him in most IDP formats. For now, I would not count on Elliss as an IDP starter. I believe a starting linebacker in IDP either needs to be an elite pass rusher and notch 12+ sacks or record over 100 total tackles in combination with the other stats.  However, he is a great “shot” play that warrants a roster spot. In dynasty formats, Kaden has a tremendous amount of upside and should be rostered based on that potential.

 

 

DEFENSIVE BACK

 

Jessie Bates, DB, Atlanta

In many ways, Bates was the heart and soul of Cincinnati’s defense. After signing a contract with the Falcons, he looks ready to assume that role again. Teaming up with Richie Grant to form an IDP super group in the defensive backfield, Bates hopes to post similar numbers he had in 2022 where he tallied 71 total tackles, 4 interceptions, and 8 passes defended. If your league scoring rewards points for passes defended, Bates is a viable starter. However, if your scoring system leans more on tackles, Bates is a fringe flex player at best. 

 

 

CJ Gardner-Johnson, DB, Detroit

The last Eagle to appear on this list is CJ Gardner-Johnson. After tying for the league lead in interceptions with 6, CJGJ was forced to find a new team. After struggling to find a long-term contract, CJGJ signed another 1-year deal with the Lions. CJGJ showed solid tackle numbers last year as he recorded 67 total tackles in only 12 games. Will CJGJ be able to replicate that type of production through an entire 17-game season? The Lions are banking on it! There have even been rumors that CJGJ has been working as a slot corner for the Lions in off-season workouts. This looks to be a situation where the Lions are going to find every way possible to keep CJ on the field. The Lions have a well-stacked secondary (that includes Kerby Joseph and Cameron Sutton) and it may be hard for so many players to excel in IDP formats. If your league only starts 1 to 2 defensive backs, other DBs may have more potential than CJGJ and you may want to pass on rostering CJGJ. However, in deeper leagues, or in a situation where you “punted” DBs, CJGJ offers enough upside to take the risk.

 

 

Stephen Gilmore, DB, Dallas

Many people applauded the trade that acquired Stephen Gilmore to the Dallas Cowboys. From a fantasy perspective, Gilmore is not the ideal IDP candidate. You may ask, “Why is that? Isn’t Gilmore an elite cornerback?” And the answer is: Yes, Stephen Gilmore is an elite cover corner. And because of those elite skills, many teams throw the opposite way. Last year, Gilmore posted his highest total tackles in his career with 66 but only had 2 interceptions. Going to Dallas means Gilmore gets to play opposite Trevon Diggs; also an elite cornerback. This should force opposing teams to at least play Gilmore and Diggs straight up; no longer avoiding one side of the field. This will provide more opportunities for interceptions and passes defended. If your league uses passes defended, then Gilmore now becomes a more viable option in IDP with the increased opportunities. If your league focuses on tackles and interceptions, Gilmore is a great depth pick and can be used for spot starts.

 

 

Julian Love, DB, Seattle

Julian Love had a breakout season with the NY Giants last year; recording 116 tackles, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, and 2 interceptions. Love scored double-digit fantasy points in 6 games last year. With those types of stats, how can a player’s value go down the following year? Well, Love chose to go to the STACKED defensive backfield in Seattle. Last year’s rookie breakout star was Tariq Woolen; who notched 63 tackles and 6 interceptions. In addition, the Seahawks should get All-Decade Performer, Jamal Adams, back from injury. I believe the Seahawks are concerned that Adams may not be ready to return to action at the start of the season, or if he does, may not be the same player. So, the Seahawks signed the ascending Love to ease that situation. Not to mention, Quandre Diggs (who had 71 tackles last year) and the 1st-round draft pick, Devon Witherspoon are also slated to play. Currently, there are not enough reps for me to feel great about Julian Love being an IDP contributor on your fantasy team. However, if anything in this situation changes and Love is in line for at least a 50%-60%, snap share, he has shown the ability to produce. Proceed with caution when it comes to Julian Love in fantasy for the 2023 season.

IDP Dynasty Dilemma: Chase Young

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At 6’5’’ and 264 pounds, Chase Young entered the NFL in 2020 as the 2nd overall pick out of Ohio St by the Washington Commanders. At that time, Chase Young was considered the top player in the draft and was compared to Julius Peppers.  A huge comparison considering Peppers if 4th on the All-Time list for career sacks.  During the draft process, many were wondering if he would be a “generational player.” Recently, the 5th year option on Chase Young was not picked up by the Commanders which has left many wondering what will happen with Chase Young next. Will Chase Young fail to meet those lofty expectations coming out of college or will his reconstructed knee finally allow him to reach his full potential?

 

I will explore those issues and others as we contemplate the IDP Dynasty Dilemma that is Chase Young.

 

REASON TO BUY

 

Natural Ability: Chase Young entered the NFL as a player that many expected to be the benchmark of pass rushers/defensive ends. At Ohio St, Young has 30.5 career sacks; which is tied for 22nd all-time in college football. And, his 16.5 sacks in 2019 is the 9th most all-time in college football for a single season.

 

In his first season in Washington, Chase Young posted 44 total tackles (32 solo and 12 assists), with 7.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries, and 4 passes defended. That season won Chase Young the 2020 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award. Young’s rookie season showed exactly what he is capable of accomplishing in the NFL on a year-to-year basis.

 

Although injuries have gotten in the way of Young producing those numbers since his rookie year, Chase is talented enough to accomplish those numbers regularly. The talent is evident. He wouldn’t have been the 2nd overall pick in the draft if experts did not believe in his abilities.

 

Yes, he has missed a majority of the last two seasons, but all indications point to his knee being completely healed and ready to return to form. If Young had chosen to repair the Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL), he would have been back sooner. Instead, he chose to have a reconstruction of the ligament. This procedure takes longer to heal but is more likely to return an athlete to 100 percent of his previous abilities.

 

Every fantasy IDP manager should be looking to add his production to your team immediately. His value is lower than it should be and you should take advantage of this opportunity. It is not often an elite DE is available at this price and you should capitalize before it's too late.

 

 

REASON TO SELL

 

Health: For many of the reasons above, one would wonder why Chase Young isn’t already being paid as one of the best pass rushers in the NFL. One word: I-N-J-U-R-I-E-S. After only 9 games in his second season, Chase Young went down with a Grade 3 ACL tear during week ten and missed the remainder of the 2021 season and all but the last three games of the 2022 season.

 

How significant is an ACL tear?

 

From 2013-2018, 312 NFL players were determined to have an ACL tear.

 

Of those players, only 174 returned to play and only 59 were still playing 3 years after their injury. Those statistics may have contributed to the Commanders passing on Chase Young’s 5th-year option. 

 

For a player with a cloudy future, I do not believe you should spend your draft capital on a player with an uncertain future. Of the data available on NFL athletes healing and returning to the NFL, offensive and defensive linemen have the worst track record of returning to form.

 

Defensive Ends have a lower incidence of tearing an ACL, which is also more troubling. The physical demands on a defensive end are less strenuous than a linebacker. Thus, Chase Young may have a problematic knee that was discovered by the rigors of the NFL, and this may not be the last “major” injury Chase Young has to overcome.

 

Young returned to limited action in 2022 for weeks 16-18. In those three games, Young saw a 30%, 38%, and 47% snap share per game. Young recorded a total of 5 tackles and ZERO sacks. Even though his time was limited, he did very little with the field time used. The limited sample size may be enough for many IDP managers to pass on rostering Chase Young. For comparison, Josh Sweat (Eagles) played a similar snap share in his last 3 games and he recorded 10 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 int, and a defensive touchdown. In short, Chase Young did not produce at a high enough level to be started in IDP even in part-time duty. 

 

During Chase Young’s injury time in the NFL, the emergence of Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, and Daron Payne has the Commanders positioned well on the defensive line. Does that mean Chase Young can’t perform? No, he can still produce high-level production with other players being just as effective. Not sure? Check out the Eagles from last year, their rotation on the defensive line led to historic sack numbers as a team. In this situation, he is aided by playing less and sharing the pass-rush responsibilities with his fellow linemen.

 

VERDICT

 

Chase Young is a conundrum for IDP Fantasy owners.

 

If you believe he is past his knee injury, then he is MUST buy.

 

OR

 

If you believe his injury prevents him from reaching or exceeding his rookie campaign then he is a SELL.

 

With his return last year and the off-season to build strength, should aide Young in returning to his previous form. I believe the Commanders not picking up his option is a blessing in disguise. When he becomes a free agent, he has the ability to select his new situation. Chase Young will not be this cheap for much longer. If you can get Chase Young for a player like Trey Hendrickson or Dexter Lawrence advise you to:

BUY! BUY! BUY!