Dylan Schroeder

Wide Receiver Breakdown: Seattle Seahawks

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As I continue my mini-series that previews some of the wide receiver rooms across the National Football League, the next stop is in Seattle. Now, traditionally, when you think of the Seattle Seahawks and Pete Carroll, you think of an old school, grimy football team that wants to grind out drives on the ground and dictate the flow of the game with a nasty, in-your-face defense that flies around from sideline to sideline. 

However, after a slew of injuries to backs and the surprising emergence of Geno Smith last season, Seattle found themselves with an unusual identity that tossed the ball nearly 60% of the time rather than the 47.51% pass rate Russell Wilson commanded from 2018 to 2021, according to TeamRankings. 

Despite the identity change to the offense, the Seahawks found themselves back in the dance, which gives me reason to believe they will march into the 2023 season with a similar pass rate to last year. Additionally, they will hopefully increase the pace of play to an offense that ranked 22nd overall, which netted the coveted Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet in this year’s draft. 

Seattle’s Offensive Coordinator, Shane Waldron, is entering his third season in this role, so I expect the offense to expand to the highest level we’ve seen from him yet. As the Lions’ OC, Ben Johnson, recently pointed out, heading into year two is “less learning concepts, it’s now understanding the answers to the problems.” 

For Waldron, who is branching out from the coaching tree of Sean McVay, we should see an even more fluid offense in year three under his watch, especially with a second year of a revamped Geno Smith. 

 

 

When I look at this roster, I’m super intrigued by the wide receiver room, which is really saying something when you have a great pair of running backs in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. However, with some lingering camp injuries for both ball carriers, I fully expect Waldron to double or triple down on the talent they possess outside and replicate an offense closer to McVay’s, O’Connell’s, Staley’s, Taylor’s, etc. 

Last season, Seattle ranked 25th in utilizing 11 personnel – a staple of McVay’s offense. I expect this tendency to jump into the top ten this year now that the Seattle offensive personnel commands it. A prospect such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba breaks the mold of any previous tendencies your offense had. You simply shape what you want to do around JSN, Metcalf, and Lockett. Each has a unique playstyle and fit to this offense that compliments the other. Fortunately, all three receivers are valuable pieces in the dynasty community, which is pretty rare to see. 

Without further ado, let’s get into the details of three of the best values in fantasy football. 

DK Metcalf | Wide Receiver | Seattle Seahawks | 25-Years-Old

Consensus Dynasty Rank: WR15 | Dynasty Startup ADP: WR15 | My Dynasty Rank: WR12

2022: 17 Games | 141 Targets | 90 Receptions | 1,048 Yards | 6 TD’s | WR26, PPG, 13.3

Touchdowns. We know touchdowns aren’t a sticky statistic, but for some, they can be. For Metcalf, he averaged 9.6 touchdowns per season heading into last year, and even grabbed double digit touchdowns each of the last two. 

If Metcalf were to have caught even three more touchdowns last season, to reach that average, he would’ve finished in the top 10 overall at the position, and he would’ve climbed up the charts in his per game numbers, too. At only 25-years-old, we’d be looking at Metcalf this offseason a lot more confidently than the community is right now, but he has quietly been placed on the back burner for some of the rising young talent across the league, which has opened a purchasing window. 

The beauty of Metcalf’s game is that there aren’t a lot of weaknesses to it. In fact, according to his reception perception, he nearly charted all “greens” during his 2022 campaign. 

Metcalf seems to be getting better and better each year as a football player, even if the fantasy production hasn’t always matched. He has become more successful at separating each year of his career, and always holds that upside to score a high number of times. At some point, we’re going to see an eruption where he finds the endzone upwards of 14, 15, or 16 times and bounces himself into a top six or so season. 

With a more proficient passing attack, more receivers on the field, and a faster pace of play, Metcalf can finally become the guy we thought we were getting after his sophomore season.

According to PlayerProfiler, Metcalf’s opportunity is huge. Last season he ranked inside the top 10 in air yards and unrealized air yards, as well as JUST outside of that threshold in targets and deep targets. Most importantly, he saw 27 red zone targets, which was second at the position to Justin Jefferson. 

For me, I’m going on record and saying that Metcalf is the single best buy at the position when you consider age, upside, and cost. I’ve found that many are looking at him turning from 25 to 26 this season and see an opportunity to sell, rather than hold. 

The most popular price I’ve seen Metcalf going for is essentially a first round pick and additional, spare picks or a first round pick and a veteran good-not-great running back or receiver. While browsing trades, very seldom has Metcalf been the prize in some of these trade packages. You never know how someone values another asset, so it’s worth at least kicking the tires and seeing if the price is cheaper than you imagined. 

Tyler Lockett | Wide Receiver | Seattle Seahawks | 30-Years-Old

Consensus Dynasty Rank: WR45 | Dynasty Startup ADP: WR48 | My Dynasty Rank: WR39

2022: 16 Games | 117 Targets | 84 Receptions | 1,033 Yards | 9 TD’s | WR18, PPG, 14.8

I was thinking about this the other day, there needs to be a place for someone like Tyler Lockett for when he’s finished playing football. Now, I’m not saying he’s a Hall of Fame player because he’s not, but there needs to be a spot for him and others alike that were entirely underappreciated their entire careers so they aren’t forgotten completely once they hang the cleats up. 

For years, Lockett has been criminally overlooked, forgotten, and underrated. That last word, underrated, is interesting because social media will try to tell you players like Keenan Allen or Amari Cooper are underrated, and, well, they just aren’t. They’re very, very good but just aren’t in that top threshold. They never were and they never will be. However, guys like Lockett will truly be forgotten because of the Allen’s and Cooper’s of the league. The same 45 second highlight of Allen’s route running will recycle on 600 different platforms for the next 10 years, but Lockett’s will not despite the fact that he is one of best of his era at getting open and is still doing it at a high level.

As we project forward, there is a lot of worry with Lockett because of age and opportunity in a room that features the aforementioned beast, DK Metcalf, and the new kid, Smith-Njigba. However, what the common eye fails to see when scrolling their Sleeper app and noticing a giant, intimidating “30” next to Lockett’s name is that he moves all over the field and formation with alignment and motion. He is the straw that stirs this passing attack, and to be quite honest, he has been a better player than Metcalf. He will not be overtaken by JSN, either, because of the transition and intricacies it takes to do what Lockett has mastered over time. 

While the advanced metrics don’t support Lockett in some of the high-end ways that they do for Metcalf, he’s consistently good at just about everything that is tracked. He truly has no weaknesses. While his route running has been absurd over his career, he has been as good as anyone when it comes to contested catches. Now, I’m not saying he’s going to win at the catch point like Mike Williams or Ja’Marr Chase or AJ Brown by absolutely bodying a defensive back, but the football seems to travel through windows the size of a red solo cup and meet Lockett’s hands on the other side of the traffic far more often than what seems possible. He’s essentially a warlock. 

Lockett’s game is going to continue aging well, and you should buy, especially if you’re a contender because the price is legitimately a 2nd round pick or worse for a guy who has finished inside the top 15 each of the last four seasons. Similar to Metcalf, folks are worried about this room being crowded and think of the old offensive stereotypes attached to the Seattle Seahawks. I’m not saying all three receivers are going to finish in the top 12, but each is going to be relevant in their own ways, especially from a dynasty perspective. There’s a lot of gas left in Lockett’s tank. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Wide Receiver | Seattle Seahawks | 21-Years-Old

Consensus Dynasty Rank: WR16 | Dynasty Startup ADP: WR14 | My Dynasty Rank: WR13

2022: Drafted 20th Overall | Ohio State | 6’ 1” 196 lbs. 

Smith-Njigba, without question, is the best receiver in his class. For me personally, the only receiving prospects I’ve had higher in the last three drafts have been Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, and Garrett Wilson. He clears Olave, London, Burks, Bateman, Johnston, and the rest from those classes, for me. 

As an alumni of Ohio State, you already know he is ridiculous at separating from defenders. He’s explosive on breaks, yet smooth as they come. He’s creative in his movement, yet efficient in getting there. He is, truly, just an awesome prospect across the board and a tremendous fit for the Seattle offense. By this time next season, I fully anticipate him being in that top five conversation at his position. 

 

 

At this point, the vast majority of rookie drafts are complete. The training camp hype is oozing all over social media for players on the borderline of making the roster, let alone a stud such as Smith-Njigba. You know he is uber talented. Why wait a year to make a move for a player you know is going to jump to the upper-echelon at his position? As a prospect, at minimum, he’s seen as a peer to his old teammates in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave – both of whom have admitted that Smith-Njigba is superior to them. Additionally, both Wilson and Olave are next to impossible to acquire after their rookie performances. 

Beat the rush and make a move for a player who’s currently in the same tier as the likes of Drake London, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf (or trade for Metcalf!), Cooper Kupp, or Davante Adams. At only 21-years-old, JSN’s value is only going to increase, and with a good rookie season, you’ll be trying to pluck him from a tier that holds AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle, and Garrett Wilson. 

Similar to the previous article I wrote that focuses on the receiving room of the Los Angeles Chargers, I want any of these guys at their current price. It’s rare that a team can provide relevance to three separate receivers on their roster; however, I’m in the business of obtaining talent. All three Metcalf, Lockett, and Smith-Njigba are high-level football players that I’m willing to bet on in their current situation, or really, anywhere they could end up. 

Seattle, like Los Angeles, is throwing a highly-touted rookie into the pool and will see how quickly he can swim. If the impact is immediate, the ceiling of the offense rises, as does the week-to-week value of Metcalf and Lockett. And if not, some development will take place this season for JSN, and the offense will still lean on the two veterans as they have the previous few years. All three receivers hold a different level of cost – all three of which I’d be willing to pay depending on my roster construction. 

Wide Receiver Breakdown: Los Angeles Chargers

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Wide Receiver Breakdown: Los Angeles Chargers

By Dylan Schroeder

One of the more underrated moves from this year’s offseason is the Charger’s acquisition of the former Dallas offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore. While I think it’s safe to say that many expected the Cowboys to let go of head coach Mike McCarthy and give Moore a well deserved promotion, we were reminded that Jerry Jones truly has no idea what he’s doing. 

After rejuvenating the Dallas passing attack for a handful of years, Moore has shown that he is well on his way to having a tremendous NFL career as a coach, and he will likely reenergize the Chargers offense to a level that could be absolutely electric. Alright, alright, no more Charger puns…

There are plenty of reasons to get excited about the pairing of an offensive savant like Kellen Moore with Justin Herbert, but what’s interesting are the amount of folks who believe there’s going to be a complete overhaul to this offense. While I believe the Chargers are freeing Moore from McCarthy’s handcuffs to truly do whatever he wants, I think we’re simply going to see a more efficient version of how the Chargers attempted to play last season, in terms of pass rate and pace. 

TeamRankings.com

Dallas Cowboys

Los Angeles Chargers

Pass Rate 2022

52.70%

  65.09%

Pass Rate Last 3

56.92%

61.62%

Run Rate 2022

47.30%

34.91%

Run Rate Last 3

43.08%

38.38%

Plays Per Game

65.4

67.9

Players Per Game Last 3

65.0

66.0

It goes without saying that there are going to be changes to the offense – most notably attacking from 11 personnel (Dallas featured this package 62% of the time), pushing the ball down the field far more often, and being efficient in the run game by creating more gaps in the defensive front by using tight ends, fullbacks, or a hybrid of both. 

Brett Kollmann did a phenomenal job of breaking down some of Moore’s offensive tendencies and shared how he’s going to implement his scheme in Los Angeles. I highly recommend watching!

Despite much of what I’ve read on social media of how Moore is going to be playing Madden with Justin Herbert and their receivers, there’s only so much more that they can throw the football in comparison to last season. During the 2022 campaign, Herbert was second in the league in pass attempts behind the now-retired Tom Brady and about 50 attempts ahead of the next closest, Patrick Mahomes. In fact, Dallas was the 9th most balanced offense in neutral situations last season, which makes me believe that number has to come down, at least a little bit. 

However, Los Angeles’ best weapon, Austin Ekeler, is a much more dynamic receiver than rusher, as we know, and they’re fully loaded outside after adding Quentin Johnston to a receiver room that was already pretty strong, so I don’t expect the balance to be as equal as it was in Dallas, but is certainly something to post a pin in when discussing this offense. 

Regardless of scheme changes, identity, or offensive philosophy, Moore is coming in to clean up the viruses and get this machine running on all cylinders! I think we’ll see this team be aggressive in the same ways that we Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Kansas City attack their game plan each week. The offense is going to punch you in the face, and you better be ready or you’re going to fall behind fast and often. Oh yeah, and head coach Brandon Staley isn’t worried that they’ll score too many points, so maybe they’ll run the score up when possible! Great news for fantasy football! 

Now, while I’m excited to watch the Chargers compete this upcoming year – spoiler: they’re my way-too-early pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl – I’m even more excited to dissect this team from a fantasy perspective, particularly with a dynasty lens. The most polarizing or intriguing part of this roster, in my opinion, is the wide receiver room. 

Keenen Allen | Wide Receiver | Los Angeles Chargers | 31-Years-Old

Consensus Dynasty Rank: WR40 | Dynasty Startup ADP: WR31 | My Dynasty Rank: WR35

2022: 10 Games | 89 Targets | 66 Receptions | 752 Yards | 4 TD’s | WR12, PPG, 16.9

As if dynasty managers aren’t worried about Allen enough because of his age creeping up further past the 30-year-old threshold, a hamstring injury forced him to miss nearly all of the first half of his 2022 campaign. 

However, after returning in Week 11 of last season, Allen went on to show that he is still one of the best receivers in the league, as he finished in the top three of both total points and points per game at his position the final eight weeks of the season. 

During that stretch, Allen saw an absurd 10.4 targets come his way each week, and unless you were able to survive his absence early on, it’s unlikely you were able to enjoy his scorching hot stretch in meaningful games. 

Father time is certainly undefeated, but the clock has yet to strike midnight on Keenan Allen. Dynasty managers in every league grossly overvalue age and upside by becoming enamored with prospects of which they’re really not strong at evaluating in the first place. 

Rock solid veterans, like Allen, who continue to churn out productive season after productive season end up taking a back seat to second round rookie picks because “A boat’s a boat, but the mystery box could be anything. It could even be a boat!”

Allen has never really been an explosive, big play receiver, but what makes him special is his Jedi Master training in route running and separation. He has a game that should age well into his mid-thirties, as long as he continues his rapport with Herbert and doesn’t seek a contract elsewhere. 

Keenan Allen is absolutely going to inherit the CeeDee Lamb role in Moore’s offense, and likely bring himself to yet another ho-hum top 12ish finish. The odds on favorite to lead this team in targets needs to be traded for and plugged into your starting lineup until he retires and sails into the sunset.  

I’d be looking to trade for Allen if I’m a contender, obviously, and am willing to give up a late first for Allen + another asset or a second round pick for him straight up. It goes without saying that the best dynasty players are the best negotiators. Get creative, but get him on your roster if you are trying to win. 

Mike Williams | Wide Receiver | Los Angeles Chargers | 28-Years-Old

Consensus Dynasty Rank: WR41 | Dynasty Startup ADP: 41 | My Dynasty Rank: WR:38

2022: 13 Games | 93 Targets | 63 Receptions | 895 Yards | 4 TD’s | WR22, PPG, 13.6

Williams has had such a fascinating, yet frustrating NFL career and it has been completely  attached to his ability to stay healthy. Unfortunately, Williams seems to miss, at minimum, a few games each year, and even chunks of those games where he participates because he’s in the blue tent or nursing something on the sideline. 

The injuries make sense when you watch him sky above defenders and devour the football before falling ungracefully to the turf. While I’m not positive I’d pick someone else to make a contested catch before Big Mike, the cost is a potential car accident afterward. He’s objectively fun to watch and wildly talented, especially at the catch point, but there has typically been some serious risk attached to the experience. 

For fantasy, there were a lot of folks hoping that he had finally put it all together after coming off his career best season in 2021 where he saw 129 total targets and finished as the WR12 overall. Unfortunately, what we saw that season is probably the ceiling for Williams, and it will be even more difficult for him to return to this place with the addition of Johnston. 

However, as I will get to, Johnston is a pretty raw prospect and could (not saying will) take some time to adjust to his role. With this, Williams has shown he’s a trusted, close commodity to Justin Herbert, as he will always be a candidate for big plays and a “boom week.” As the kids say, “F-it, Mike Williams is down there somewhere.” 

If Williams is able to stay healthy, he should see important metrics like deep ball targets, red zone targets, and total routes increase to about where he was hovering in 2021. And with the Kellen Moore field stretching magic, his average depth of target and yards per reception will only improve his efficiency week to week, as well as give him more scoring opportunities. 

When he’s on the field, Williams is an awesome asset to have in your lineup. While the ride isn’t always your favorite because of the boom/bust factor, he still finished last season with more fantasy points per game than guys like Terry McLaurin, Michael Pittman Jr., Brandon Aiyuk, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Marquise Brown, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson. 

There’s a lot of ways to interpret points per game, but none of the previous players are even remotely close to how cheap Mike Williams is. While Williams’ role is a little more up in the air, he can be had for a cheaper price than Keenan Allen and offer great weekly upside for your roster, especially for those in leagues with multiple flex spots. 

If you can’t tell by now, I’m all-in on the Chargers offense! 

Quentin Johnston | Wide Receiver | Los Angeles Chargers | 21-Years-Old

Consensus Dynasty Rank: WR28 | Dynasty Startup ADP: 21 | My Dynasty Rank: WR:22

2022: Drafted 21st Overall | TCU | 6’ 3” 208 lbs. 

Johnston projects to have an interesting rookie season, as he has reportedly already won the WR3 role for the Chargers. On one hand, his physical and athletic ability gives him potential to compete and dominate from the jump, but on the other, he isn’t quite all the way there as a prospect because he is kind of a mixed bag as a route runner and can be awkward at the catch point. 

Johnston is a locomotive. Like, he is an actual train when he is coming downhill at defenders with the football in his hands. He is tremendous at just stepping through tacklers as if they don’t even exist, as well as flashing his patented spin move to find extra yards.

I think Johnston is going to become the Chargers most versatile receiver early. We will see him lined up at each receiving position and moved all over the formation, as he is going to be their most deadly weapon after the catch, so he will be put into situations to showcase that ability. For those who didn’t know, he led the FBS in yards after the catch per reception, according to Derek Brown of Fantasy Pros. While he doesn’t possess the ludicrous versatility of Deebo Samuel, he has shown me flashes of him with the ball in his hands, which is outrageous for a man of his size. 

We knew Johnston would out-pace Josh Palmer in training camp, but it’ll be interesting to see if he’s able to crack the number two spot on the depth chart for the two receiver packages. Something working in his favor is the injury history of both Allen and Williams – both of which will likely command those spots early on – as well as his unique skill set the others don’t possess. 

Johnston’s Reception Perception profile showcases him as someone who has room to grow, but has a pretty fierce upside. For each route he has specialized, there’s another that he badly needs to work on. Matt Harmon has concerns about his ability against zone coverage, but was pleasantly surprised with his success rate against man and press coverage. 

Overall, Harmon seems more worried about him as a technician, but I I see Johnston as a little safer because of the physical tools that I’m in love with. Additionally, I think Kellen Moore can help scheme him open until those route running chops find their way up to par. There are dudes all around Johnston that can play, which should definitely make his adjustment to the NFL easier. 

However, something concerning to me is that he’s kind of awkward at the catch point. He is addicted to body catching and isn’t tremendous at finding success in contested situations. If he can refine his separation ability and become smoother catching the football, which I think he will, there’s no reason he can’t be a star in this league. 

From a dynasty perspective, Johnston is in this unique spot that you can gamble on and win big time. If you see his upside, you can easily talk yourself into paying up for him. However, as the consensus WR28, it won’t cost you nearly as much right now as it will after his first few games in the NFL. If you’re trying to trade for Johnston in August or even later, you likely will have missed your window. 

Sooner than later, Johnston will climb this depth chart and truly be seen as the team’s best receiving asset, which his dynasty value already reflects. As early as next season, there’s a scenario where he’s Justin Herbert’s number one option in an offense that leads the league in pass attempts, again and again and again… While he’s currently my WR22, I’m treating Johnston as someone who could easily jump into my top 10-14 by next season. He feels like an easy buy-low candidate before breaking out. 

As I have stated again and again throughout this piece, I’m all-in on the Los Angeles Chargers this year and the weapons in their offense. Each of these three receivers are at a different point in their career, yet each can easily be had from managers in your league at affordable prices. Whether contending or rebuilding, you need to locate the one that matches your window and trade for them! 

Three Running Backs to Buy

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Three Running Backs to Buy

 

While sitting roughly two months out from the opening week of preseason action, we’re officially in that dry zone of summer. The majority of rookie drafts are dead and gone, the hype of the incoming class is at a pause until training camp, and a lot of owners are just kind of hanging around tinkering with their lineups awaiting news coverage. 

When taking this into consideration, there are still a lot of dynasty managers right now who’d like to make trades, and now is as good of a time as any to reach out for players who are flying well below the radar.

Respectfully, the running back position is looked at by managers as a dumping ground, despite it probably being the most important position on your roster because of positional scarcity. Unless you’re a savvy dynasty manager, the only backs that people are attempting to make moves for are those near the top of consensus dynasty rankings. It can be a scary proposition to invest in this position when guys are off of that initial rookie contract, but luckily, those we’re looking are a few guys who I think will finish well above their current value and can be had at a discounted price. 

Rhamdondre Stevenson, Running Back, New England Patriots

Last season, while the quarterback position was zig-zagging between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe, the Patriots’ offense ranked a middling 17th overall in points per game, 20th in passing yards per game, and 24th in rushing yards per game. 

Despite the nastiness of their stagnant, one-read, horrific offense, Rhamondre Stevenson finished 7th overall at the running back position by topping 1,000 yards on the ground and tacking on an additional 421 yards on 69 catches (nice). While accounting for 279 total touches within the offense, Stevenson even saw a below-average touchdown rate where he only scored six times. That number will improve! Positive touchdown regression! Throughout the season, Stevenson showed that his contact balance and ability to break the first tackle is legitimately among the best in the NFL. 

At the running back position, PlayerProfiler has credited Stevenson #3 in evaded tackles, #3 in juke rate, #6 in breakaway runs, #6 in yards created per touch, and #13 in breakaway run rate. 

As we look toward next season, we have to assume that prying the play-calling duties from Matt Patricia’s cold, dead hands and giving that responsibility to Bill O’Brien can only improve the Patriot offense. Additionally, acquiring players such as Juju Smith-Schuster, Mike Gesicki, and a few other minor pieces should only help extend drives and opportunities to score. 

Stevenson is currently on the outside looking in at consensus dynasty RB1 rankings, and that shouldn’t be the case. With Damien Harris leaving for Buffalo, one of the positions top pass catchers and bell cow backs will resume his role as fantasy’s most underrated running back. 

James Conner, Running Back, Arizona Cardinals

Public Service Announcement: I just want to let everyone know that it is, in fact, okay to roster Arizona Cardinals in fantasy football this upcoming season. 

Here is a list of recent trades made involving James Conner, according to the Dynasty Nerds “Trade Browser,” which, by the way, is a tremendous tool. 

James Conner and 2025 3rd for Raheem Mostert and a 2024 2nd

James Conner and a 2024 1st for Dalvin Cook and a 2024 2nd

James Conner and a 2023 3rd for a 2023 2nd and a 2024 3rd

James Conner for D’Onta Foreman and a 2026 2nd

James Conner for a 2024 2nd and a 2024 4th

Should I keep going? These are all smash accepts, for me. 

Last season, James Conner finished as the RB10 with 15.4 PPG. That was better than the aforementioned Rhamondre Stevenson or Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker III, Jamaal Williams, Dalvin Cook, and more. Not more than a single point separated Conner from high capital, sexy names like Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, and Tony Pollard. 

He’s criminally underrated, and it’s happening again because people are scared of the Murray-less Arizona offense. However, you shouldn’t be. Running backs, no matter how good or bad, only need touches, and Conner is going to get plenty of opportunities. Who’s competing with him? No, seriously. Who’s competing with Conner for touches in Arizona? 

 

Conner is quietly coming off of his most efficient season since 2018 and is valued as the dynasty consensus RB 36. Sure, he’s 28 years old, and there’s an additional discount because of his team or injury concerns, but if you’re looking to acquire a highly-impactful player at a rate that feels like stealing, he is your man. 

David Montgomery, Running Back, Detroit Lions

There’s a terrific Dynasty Dilemma piece written by our own Cody Folden on Montgomery, which I definitely recommend reading if you want an extensive look on his situation. 

If there’s one thing that I learned over the past two seasons, it’s that I have no idea what’s going to happen in the Detroit backfield. And thanks to Detroit’s staff deciding to acquire Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th pick of this year’s NFL Draft, a nice buying window for David Montgomery has emerged. 

It goes without saying that he isn’t likely to be the lead back similar to last year’s Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift situation, simply because of the level of capital spent on Gibbs; however, there’s still a plenty decent sized role for Montgomery that I project to include the lionshare of the 10-zone and goal line opportunities. 

Montgomery, unfortunately, hasn’t lived up to the “RB Frankenstein” dream that was displayed at Iowa State, but he has quietly had a really nice start to his NFL career. He has easily gone over 1,000 scrimmage yards each year of his career and has shown a nose for the end zone at times. He’s a reliable, rumbling, shifty mess to tackle, without necessarily being explosive. Maybe most importantly, he has been promised some pretty good coin from Detroit to help lift their offense, potentially, to the playoffs. 

I see Montgomery as a “professional runner” in the same sense that folks see a DeMar DeRozan as a “professional bucket getter.” There’s just always going to be a role for a ball carrier like that on a NFL team, so you should make room on your dynasty squad. 

Similar to Conner, he’s a really safe RB2 with some upside as a back that would make a discounted payday worth your while for a dynasty contender. We have yet to see what Gibbs’ exact role is going to be with Goff, and while the majority of us are expecting him to be a check-down merchant, someone needs to control the pace of the ground game, which likely will be the ho-hum, under-the-radar Montgomery. 

Dynasty Dilemma: Kyler Murray

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Dynasty Dilemma: Kyler Murray

By Dylan Schroeder

A late report on the eve of the NFL Draft has shifted Paris Johnson – a tackle prospect from Ohio State – to the betting favorite at number three overall for the Arizona Cardinals. 

It has been reported that Kyler Murray loves Johnson and wants him to become a stonewall on the offensive line to alleviate some of the pressure that has disrupted the Arizona offense. Last season, according to Warren Sharp, there was a mess of metrics that showed help is desperately needed up front, as they were of the five worst NFL units in false starts, holding penalties, pressure rate, time to throw, and more. 

Traditionally, the Cardinals have had a tendency to draft defensive players early, rather than make additions to the offense. In fact, they haven’t drafted an offensive lineman with any of their previous 10 first round picks. While I think the smartest thing to do would be taking who you believe to be the best tackle – or trading down to do so – to protect your $231 million investment, it could be extremely difficult to actually convert that concept when you’re staring a prospect such as Will Anderson in the face at the 1.03. 

At this point, there are dozens of questions that are surrounding the Arizona Cardinals, and certainly several of those are tied to the quarterback, at least in some capacity, which leads us to another dynasty dilemma. 

As a manager, would you rather have a known commodity at quarterback with great upside like Kyler Murray, or maybe a mystery box that comes with more questions than the giant, animated one on the outside of the box? It sounds simple in those terms, but many are chasing the latter at this time! 

 

 

In his short career, Kyler Murray has been a guy that, despite producing in a mostly fantastic way when on the field, the dynasty community has had a difficult time committing to him. 

Kyler Murray Startup ADP vs. Fantasy Finish

Year

Startup ADP

Overall Finish

PPG Finish

2019

QB13

QB7

18.6, 12th

2020

QB7

QB2

24.4, 4th

2021

QB3

QB10

22.2, 4th

2022

QB6

QB19

18.9, QB7

2023

QB10

?

?

When a player is coming off of an injury, it’s always a little scary to invest in them, especially when that injury is something as significant as a tear to your ACL and meniscus. 

However, let me make one thing exceptionally clear. That’s a redraft mindset. 

Kyler Murray, a jackrabbit, konami code quarterback is available on the low-low, and he can instantly boost the reputation of your dynasty teams. 

Since coming into the league in 2019, Kyler Murray ranks third amongst all quarterbacks in rushing yards and touchdowns. While he’s only a couple hundred yards behind a guy like Josh Allen in the rushing yardage department, he has also played in eight less games! 

On a per game basis, Kyler’s rushing production per game has netted himself 6.2 points per game over his 57 career appearances. For comparison, Josh Allen is only a tick higher at 6.5, and he leads the position in rushing touchdowns during that same timeframe. 

You essentially have a built-in rushing touchdown each week, which has been a huge part of why Kyler has been a top five fantasy quarterback over the last three seasons on a per game basis. 

When you take into consideration that he’s still, somehow, only 25-years-old, he should probably be seated at the table with guys like Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert. At minimum, he’s sitting at the table with these guys, but he’s using the folding chair from the basement because you don’t have enough matching chairs in your dining room set. 

However, if you look at current startups, Kyler Murray has found himself in the tier below those listed and is seated with Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, and the top couple incoming rookies – Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. None of which have the combination of rushing upside and passing chops that Murray does. 

This, my friends, is what we call a bargain. 

On top of his rushing floor, Kyler Murray is a talented passer, which is often overlooked. Again, since coming into the NFL, he has been within 10 passing yards per game of quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Josh Allen. 

Unfortunately, his touchdown upside and passing efficiency have been capped for a variety of reasons. Most notably, their system under ex-head coach Kliff Kingsbury didn’t translate to the NFL as beautifully as it was displayed in the Big 12. As creatively stated by Jason Katz of Pro Football Network, they gave us the “horizontal raid” offense. Or as the Fantasy Footballers infamously coined, Kingsbury required players like DeAndre Hopkins – ya know, one of the best receivers of the last decade – to run a route bush, rather than a route tree. 

The good news for Murray and dynasty managers is that era is over. Last season, according to PlayerProfiler, Kyler fell below the league average in pass attempts, deep ball attempts, red zone attempts, passing yards, air yards, or any yards per attempt metric, despite finishing TOP FIVE (!!!) in pace, plays per game, and accuracy. Each of those categories, naturally, should increase because it’d be difficult to fall further behind the league median. 

As we move closer to the 2023 season, and rookie fever grows hotter and hotter, there’s a tremendous window to buy a discounted fantasy superstar. He’s projected to miss as much as the first half of next season, but don’t let that push you away from greatness! The moment Kyler Murray returns to the starting lineup, the discount is gone, and the production will return to a level that is sought after in dynasty communities.

 

 

The offensive weapons on this roster are currently good, not great, in my opinion.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about Marquise Brown being one of the more underrated receivers in the NFL. Rondale Moore has shown us some juice. Trey McBride was and still is an interesting prospect at tight end. James Conner is perennially disrespected. Greg Dortch did some stuff last year when given opportunities. Zach Ertz is still alive and well (kind of), in case you forgot he’s on the roster. 

However, the gigantic elephant in the room is the mystery that surrounds DeAndre Hopkins. 

After a trade request, it’s likely that Hopkins is elsewhere as early as this weekend. If he’s going to be moved during the draft, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Arizona use the capital they get in exchange for him on an offensive prospect or two. 

Last season, while Murray waited six games for Hopkins to return from suspension, he was just fine – QB6 overall and QB7 in points per game. 

That said, without a true difference maker outside to pair with Hollywood Brown, the weekly ceiling for Murray is lowered. Yes, the rushing upside would still make him a safe player, but the overall potency of the offense would clearly take a hit and replicate ways of the past. In short, explosive plays and scoring opportunities would shrink or remain the same, rather than grow. 

Now, the beauty of dynasty is that things can change in a hurry, and you should simply follow the talent, rather than the situation, but it doesn’t make you super confident if you’re looking for stability at the game’s most premium position. 

Another reason to potentially sell Kyler is the injury risk. After playing every game his first two seasons, he has been plagued by some injuries the last couple of years. He missed six games this season and three the year before. 

Personally, I’m not one to hold injuries against a player, especially quarterbacks, but we have yet to see how a significant injury like an ACL and meniscus tear can impact his rushing upside and athleticism. With Murray’s body type, part of what makes Murray so dangerous is how he can avoid pass rushers, extend the play, and make those off-schedule highlights that we’ve grown to love. If there’s a hitch in his game, or a lack of burst, he becomes way less effective in those areas. 

It has been stated that he and the organization are going to take their time to make sure he fully recovers before bringing him back onto the field, so I’m sure things will be fine, but it still creates a place of discomfort surrounding his future. 

If I’m going to roster Murray, my roster construction needs to reflect that with a streamable quarterback or two in my depth just to plan ahead. 

If I’m able to flip Kyler Murray for someone in that Lawrence/Fields/Lawrence tier, plus an additional asset, I’d have to think long and hard about it. 

 

 

All over social media, there have been Kyler Murray trades occurring. Some have been as little as the 1.02 or 1.04 for Kyler, straight up. Some have been a middling first round pick with some additional draft compensation attached, like a couple second round picks or a future piece.

At that price, I’m scooping up Murray every single time. At minimum, I’m kicking the tires on Murray and throwing out a low offer to his manager in each league to gauge the value. If I can get a counter or something at market value, I’m smashing accept and preparing for his return because he will certainly out-perform the current expectation. 

It’s not uncommon for folks to value these incoming rookies at the same level or even above a guy like Murray right now because they’re the shiny new car, but at 25-years-old, there are hardly any miles on Murray, and he provides the weekly safety and upside that is an ultra-rare combination to find. There’s no guarantee that incoming rookies are going to hit, let alone produce to the level we’ve seen from Murray, so I’m looking to buy! 

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Diontae Johnson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Diontae Johnson

By Dylan Schroeder

Sometimes I feel like I’m doing my best impersonation of Adam Sandler’s character, Stanley Sugerman, from his movie Hustle. A passionate has-been that uses his knowledge of the game that he used to play to scout talent. As I’m no longer connected to the game of football as a player, it’s fair to say that I’m all sorts of washed up – certainly athletically – and now use dynasty to help keep me connected to the game. 

While Sugerman was routinely sitting courtside, slouched over the coffee cup wrapped tightly inside of his hand, I’m presently slouched over a keyboard with a Red Bull nearby, combing through the dynasty “Lost and Found” bin to find oversighted, forgotten, or even misguided talent. 

And, yes, I’ve done it. I’ve found my “Bo Cruz” – the player that I’m willing to attach my legacy to. For those who have followed me for even a sliver of time, it should be of no surprise who that player is. My guy, Diontae Johnson, is far from washed up and deserves much higher praise from the dynasty community than he has been receiving. Not even Buc Nasty could hate this much. Hate! Hate! Hate! Hate!

 

 

 

 

For years now, Diontae Johnson has been a polarizing guy to the masses, and I do not understand it. At nearly every single turn of his young career, he has grossly out-performed expectations, yet he is routinely mistreated by mainstream football fans. 

The former Toledo product was the 10th receiver taken in the 2019 NFL draft, and since then, he has recorded more receiving yards than everyone in his class not named for AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, or Terry McLaurin. He has also found a way to earn – yes, EARN –  more targets and receptions than anyone in the class over that same timespan. Regardless of how you want to split it, he has overachieved his career expectations by quite a bit.

In fact, since coming into the league, Diontae Johnson ranks in the top ten in receptions (8th) and targets (5th) for all NFL receivers. 

 

Diontae Johnson ADP vs. Fantasy Finish (PPR)

Year:

ADP:

Fantasy Finish: 

Difference:

2023

WR32

?

?

2022

WR16

WR28

-12

2021

WR21

WR8

+13

2020

WR39

WR21

+18

2019

WR156

WR39

+117

 

The 2022 season was the first time in Diontae’s career that he didn’t grossly out-perform his preseason ADP, and as a result, the dynasty community has completely lost their minds.

For those who aren’t watching games each Sunday with their eyeballs removed from their sockets, Diontae Johnson is easy to see as a hyper-talented player, and he passes the eye test with flying colors.

He’s nearly untouchable at the line of scrimmage because of his short area quickness, start-stop explosiveness, and a package of releases that leave cornerbacks grasping at thin air. There’s a level of versatility to his game that has rewarded opportunities within the offense to line up in different locations, show off a diverse route tree, and receive a nearly unprecedented amount of targets. 

But to put it simply, Diontae Johnson creates separation at each level of the field with a higher success rate than most, regardless of the coverage. 

If for some reason you’re struggling to see his talent, Diontae also smashes advanced statistics and analytical profiles like the great Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception. His track record shows that he has emerged into someone who is on the edge of mastering the art of separation.

 

 

According to PlayerProfiler.com, even in an appalling down year, Diontae Johnson ranked top 20 in target share, target rate, snap share, air yards, deep targets, and expected fantasy points per game. He was simultaneously top 10 in metrics such as total routes, route participation, red zone targets (!!!), and unrealized air yards. 

While the entirety of the Pittsburgh offense struggled throughout the year, given the circumstances, the largest disappointment was the evaporation of Diontae Johnson’s touchdowns. For someone who has shown he kinda-sorta had a nose for the end zone, it was shocking that Johnson never ONCE found paydirt.

 

 

I get that you can’t just ignore what happened, but as the above tweet shows, this is a complete statistical anomaly. You can run the simulation on the 2022 NFL season 100 times, and this might be the only time Johnson comes up scoreless. As a result, Diontae’s dynasty value has completely shriveled up and has presented a tremendous opportunity to buy the stock of a great talent. 

I promise his value is going to spike next season when we look up after week 1 and he starts the year with 8-112-1. Collectively, those within the dynasty community that have tarnished Diontae’s reputation will be punching the air. 

If Diontae had just hit his average (6.7 touchdowns) from his previous three seasons – without even counting additional yardage from those plays –  he’s sitting as the WR16, which is ahead of players like DK Metcalf, Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, and Chris Godwin.

 

 

I’ll admit, I didn’t think moving from Ben Roethlisberger’s corpse to Mitch Trubisky/Kenny Pickett was going to be as problematic for Diontae as it turned out to be. Initially, like many others, I figured either quarterback’s arm talent would be, at minimum, as strong and accurate as what we saw from Roethlisberger in his final season. While that point can be debated, the biggest difference I overlooked was the processing differences between the quarterbacks, and how that would disrupt the quality of Diontae’s targets and scoring opportunities. 

Roethlisberger, obviously, was elite at recognizing advantages pre-snap and adjusting in ways that helped extend drives, score more points, and most importantly for this argument, find Diontae in easy, meaningful ways. While Trubisky and Pickett still found Diontae at a wildly high rate, the quality of those targets weren’t the same. Both the pre and post-snap processing shrunk the reliability and electricity of the offense. 

It wasn’t just Diontae that struggled, either. The Pittsburgh wide receivers only had five total touchdowns on the year. Pat Freiermuth only had a couple. They were in-and-out of sync with the QB-carousel, but now will have some consistency there behind Pickett and an improved offensive line – spoiler, they’re drafting a tackle in round one. 

As we’re rolling closer and closer to the 2023 NFL Draft, it feels that Diontae is trapped inside of the “lost and found” bin that I alluded to earlier. While it doesn’t take much to pluck him off of an opposing roster, I question what you’re going to find that’s better than him with the assets you’re holding onto? 

 

 

The largest looming issue with Diontae Johnson is the fear that his teammate, George Pickens, has overtaken his position on the team as the undisputed, top wide receiver. 

While advanced statistics suggest that Diontae is still in fact the top dog, there’s belief that Pickens will surpass him in his second season. Second-year receivers make jumps to greatness pretty frequently, so it isn’t crazy to think that what we saw from Pickens last year is just a small taste of what the future holds.

As a rookie, George Pickens commanded 84 targets and found a way to get loose for just over 800 yards and 4 touchdowns. He dazzled us with incredible contested-catches and showed a routine ability to make big plays down the field. His 15.6 average depth of target ended up being the third best in the league, and was a role he dominated from the jump! 

 

 

However, Diontae has shown in the past that he can still be a high-end player while sharing the receiver room with another co-star. In 2020, JuJu Smith-Schuster saw 97 receptions on 128 targets and was still outdone by Diontae. In 2021, Diontae earned 107 catches on a whopping 169 targets alongside the much anticipated second-year-breakout of Chase Claypool. The Claypool project crashed and burned before being shipped off to Chicago, but once again, Diontae survived the allegations surrounding his ability. 

While George Pickens certainly looks to be on his way toward being a legitimate, contributing young star in the league, there are several examples throughout the NFL where duos co-exist and even help each other from a fantasy perspective. The only thing that could become worrisome for Diontae is if Pittsburgh for some reason reached on a round one or two wide receiver that could cut into his piece of the pie. While they have a need at the position, I think it'd be wiser to find a compliment to Johnson and Pickens later on in the draft, rather than ignoring some team needs for another young, exciting splash pick early on.

A different reason to consider moving Diontae is that his top 10 performance in 2021 might end up becoming an outlier in comparison to the rest of his career. When we're looking at his situation, there's obviously a scenario where the offense doesn't take the step forward that's projected and he sputters in his ADP for the second year in a row, which would make the WR1 season from 2021 feel like something way into the distant past. 

While it’s not impossible for Diontae Johnson to return to that top 15-ish status that we know he's capable of, there are many factors that could get in his way preventing him from returning to that ceiling. Maybe the best move for your dynasty roster is to find a manager or two that still believe in Diontae for the reasons described a hour ago into this reading, and you can flip him for some budding assets or combine him with a piece to level-up your receiver room. 

 

According to KeepTradeCut.com and FantasyPros consensus dynasty rankings, some of the following receivers each have a higher dynasty ranking than Diontae Johnson: Jameson Williams, Christian Watson, Michael Pittman Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Treylon Burks, Brandon Aiyuk, George Pickens, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Quentin Johnston, and Jordan Addison. 

I have a huge issue with several of the names on the list being ahead of Johnson. Sure, you can talk me into a couple, but how many of these players have yet to step onto a NFL field, and project to be a player of Diontae's caliber? How many of these players just finished their first NFL season and weren’t able to compete in 10 or more games, let alone display the production profile that we’ve seen from Diontae? How many of these players are clinging to their first productive, relevant season and have used it to catapult up the rankings?

Few, if any, can be argued to that they are in a more secure role or are equally talented to Johnson. Even less on this list project to go to a realistic situation where they're going to have the opportunity to see 100+ targets per year, let alone 140. 

It’s unlikely you come across another 26-year-old receiver at this price, who over the last 3 years ranks 5th in targets, 7th in receptions, and 17th in yards. Diontae Johnson is currently outside of the consensus top THIRTY at the position. It’s criminally low. Some folks are going to lose their jobs when he receives positive-touchdown-regression and the Steelers’ offense improves from where it was last season. He's going to absolutely SMASH the current expectations because the talent of this player didn't disappear, just the touchdowns. 

I'm willing to trade the 1.08 or later for Diontae Johnson + X asset, and depending on my roster build and situation, I'd consider moving the 1.06 or 1.07 for Diontae + X and Y. I'm also willing to trade any player listed above (and more) for Diontae + X asset. He's potentially my number one buy this offseason, and I'm trying to get as much exposure as possible. 

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Marquise Brown

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Dynasty Dilemma: Marquise Brown

By: Dylan Schroeder

 

Since the start of free agency, the Arizona Cardinals have been all quiet on the western front. In fact, really the only news connected to this team since the start of the league new year – other than some pretty minor acquisitions – have been trade rumors surrounding the future of their star wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins.

Well, and the continuous flow of memes targeting the franchise quarterback and the always awkward social media hype video of a new coach meeting their players. These players always claim, "I'm ready to get to work" in the middle of a quick dap-up with the new boss, but how many of these guys are truly, legitimately, absolutely ready to put in the needed work to pull this squad out from the depths of the NFL's basement? Arizona hasn't won a playoff game since 2015! Kyler Murray had just wrapped up his freshman season at Texas A&M! 

Anyway, speaking of DeAndre Hopkins, he has shown he still has the ability to play football at a very high level. Despite being a little long in the tooth and participating in a lengthy suspension to start last season, he paced himself for a career high in receptions. With where he’s at in his career, Murray recovering from surgery, and (whispers) a looming reset in Arizona, it makes sense for both parties to move on from each other. However, finding a trade partner has been tricky given how much money he’s going to be due by the end of next season, along with a few other factors. 

While the Cardinals are steadily shopping him, and teams are reportedly kicking the tires, I expect something to get done. At the very latest, I see Hopkins becoming part of a draft-day trade that brings him elsewhere.  

What does this mean for the outlook of a returning asset like Marquise Brown? Greatness. Buy! Buy! Buy! 

At only 25 years old, Marquise Brown is entering the fifth and final year of his rookie contract. There’s a high possibility that he’s extended by Arizona at some point this upcoming season since they were willing to move a first-round pick for him at last year’s NFL Draft. Even with the departure of Kliff Kingsbury, I'd imagine the front office and Kyler Murray are heavily interested in keeping "Hollywood" in Phoenix. To be honest, if he ends up testing free agency, he's still a fascinating dynasty piece given his age, talent, and versatility as a receiver. 

Now, there’s a new regime in Arizona, but they still need pass catchers. Outside of Marquise Brown, we’re looking at a team finding targets for Rondale Moore, Trey McBride, the corpse of Zach Ertz, a cluster of dissatisfying running backs, and the remaining leftover pieces from Kingsbury’s island of misfit, offensive toys. Arizona didn't chase any marquee free agents and is likely to add a playmaker or two during the draft, but of the offensive players, Marquise Brown is not like the others. Additionally, there are too many holes in the boat to focus solely on patching up the wide receiver room until maybe the third round or later.       

Most importantly in this equation, Brown is really, really talented. In fact, he has shown us that he is straight-up electricity when he has been on the field for the last few years. Unfortunately, he has had a complicated last couple of seasons connected to injuries for himself and those around him. 

Note: Everything is looked at under the lens of a 1/2 PPR league because that's my personal preference. Moving to a full PPR only marginally changes some of the referenced rankings. 

From Week One through Six, Marquise Brown was the wide receiver 6 in points per game and the wide receiver 5 in targets when he earned 10.7 per game. He was on a 17-game pace of 181 targets, 122 receptions, 1,374 yards, and 8 touchdowns! Extrapolating his six best weeks over the course of an entire season isn't the answer to everything, but it shows that his ceiling was in the ballpark of finishing as a WR1. It's not outlandish to think that he could finish as a WR1 or a fringe WR1 this upcoming year, which would smash his current value, especially if/when a Hopkins trade creates even less competition for targets.

After a scorching start this past season, Brown suffered a foot injury that removed him from his next five contests, and after returning from injury, he was without his starting quarterback for five of the last six games.

While the question for Brown is often a game of asking yourself "what if," it's actually much simpler -- who's playing quarterback?

Going back to the 2021 season, Brown finished as the WR23 overall and WR25 in PPG (10 game minimum), which feels disappointing, especially when you consider that Brown started the season on absolute fire like he did this past year.

In 2021, with a healthy Lamar Jackson (W1-10), Marquise Brown was the WR8 overall and the WR9 in points per game. The rest of the way, Brown was the WR61 (!!!) overall. It has never been a question of talent with Brown, but given his specific situations, he has not been able to become quarterback proof.

His hot start in 2021 carried over from how he finished his 2020 season, which led to him dominating the final Week 12-17 stretch of the season where he was the WR11. From then on, Baltimore sprayed him with targets and found more creative ways to get him the ball to increase their underdeveloped passing attack. They doubled down on  Brown his final season in Baltimore and saw tremendous results until Jackson got injured. We saw that same player make an immediate impact in the desert, as he has shown he is an dynamic player over and over again.

As a receiver, Marquise Brown has consistently improved, and has truly been able to win at each level of the field for a couple of seasons now. The speedster has become a terrific route runner that isn't afraid to dust a defensive back with or without the ball in his hands, rather than just being boxed into a field stretching go-route artist like your league-mates think he is. As he is clocking into the final year of his deal, I expect a big season from Brown that will lead to a long term deal connected to Kyler Murray or a situation that will use him for the player he is -- a game changer.

It's not impossible for Kyler Murray to return for the first week of the season, but it's more likely that he with miss a handful of games to start his 2023 campaign. During that stretch, it's hard to believe the Arizona Cardinals are going to be an offense burning with desirable fantasy pieces. And even once Murray does return, you aren't guaranteed strong production from him so quickly after a serious injury. Obviously this puts obstacles in the path of Marquise Brown returning to the auto-start he has been for your lineup during various stretches of the last three seasons.

As one of the largest Hollywood fans in this community, I'm still waiting for him to put together a complete season. Not half of a season. Not a six or seven game stretch. I need the whole season of greatness from him. After the trade to Arizona last year, there were so many believers in Marquise Brown that "Hollywood Island" started to feel like a tourist trap. As his value slowly plummeted after being placed on IR to where we are at this moment, I feel like I just turned on Animal Crossing for the first time and am scavenging shells on the beach without a soul in sight. It's just Tom Nook, Timmy, Tommy, and myself waiting for visitors.

A large component to Marquise Brown's discounted value actually requires DeAndre Hopkins to be traded. While it looks unlikely, there is still a scenario where he ends up riding out this next season in Arizona.

While the majority of Brown's games played with DeAndre Hopkins were without the starting quarterback, he did see about three less targets per game than he was accustomed to.

During that span, he saw his fantasy points per game shrink from 14.7 to 5.8 per contest. Again, quarterback play heavily influences this, but there's still shrinkage!

Even if you're looking to sell Marquise Brown right now, you shouldn't because of how low the value has dropped.

 

Everyone in dynasty is a buy at the right price, and currently, Marquise Brown is a gem on the clearance rack. According to various consensus rankings online, he's a fringe WR2 and often a WR3. Absurd.

I've seen the future! While there is likely a slow start in the making without Murray, Hollywood will still command targets. As the season progresses, he will be mentioned as an early "league winner" candidate because of the price it took to obtain him. Over the back half of the year, he will likely be putting together his 4th straight season of showing his ceiling as a week-to-week WR1.

Dynasty is simple -- invest in really talented, young players that the community is losing interest in.

It might be scary to invest in a player who ended the season so poorly and left a bitter taste in your mouth, but that's exactly why you can go get him at an affordable price. There are few guys who can break open a game or stretch of games the way that Hollywood can. He's due to put together a full season, and you can get in at a very cheap price.

Players within the realm of Marquise Brown's consensus dynasty ranking that I'd be willing to give up for Brown, especially if I can get Brown and another asset: DJ Moore, Christian Watson, Terry McLaurin, Jerry Jeudy, Brandon Aiyuk, George Pickens, Jahan Dotson, Christian Kirk, Rashod Bateman, and more. I'd also be willing to move a late first for him!