Doug Harrelson

Dynasty Stock Watch: Week 4

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Dynasty Stock Watch: Week 4

By Doug Harrelson

The NFL season is always such a shock after a long offseason of discussion and analysis. If you told me going into the season that the Jaguars and Eagles would be one of the premier matchups this weekend going into the season I would have laughed at you. Yet here we are with three weeks of the NFL season wrapped up and in the books. The honest self reflection of our dynasty teams happens here. Trading has picked up across leagues as teams try to position themselves for a push at the championship or begin looking at trying again next season. Player values begin to shuffle madly as fewer and fewer weeks are left to try and take home the championship. Let’s dive into what these dynasty player values are looking like.

Stock Down

Justin Fields

This Bears offense is truly hard to watch. This is the type of NFL that your grandparents grew up watching before the passing game explosion of the past 10 years. It feels like the entire developmental cycle for Justin Fields could be jeopardized by this coaching staff. At first we thought the Week 1 game in the weather could have been an outlier but this seems to just be the game plan the Bears want to implement. Even in a negative game script against the Packers the Bears continued to just run the football. I assume at some point the Bears will be playing from behind and Fields will have to throw the ball, hopefully then we get some brighter days.

All of them

The running back position is a tragedy right now in fantasy football. Nobody has been consistent, there is a ton of injury risk at the position, NFL teams continue to use committee approaches. If you are a serious contender, hold your RBs and by all means buy them now while they are cheap. Winning championships is the name of the game. Just understand when you make that move that you may never get any return for this investment when you make this trade. If you do not think you can win a championship now I would advocate selling any RB on your roster. I’ll explain more later on. 

Elijah Moore

This one hurts me on a personal level. I am heavily invested in Elijah Moore in every format of fantasy from best ball to redraft to dynasty. PPR, ½ PPR, non-PPR, you name it. Right now Garrett Wilson is the alpha WR on this Jets offense, Corey Davis is still getting targets, Conklin is off to a good start and they have two different pass catching RBs. I feel like a broken record from what I said a couple weeks ago talking about Wilson but the Jets offense now has a reasonable amount of mouths to feed. Elijah Moore may take the hit because of it. 

Noah Fant

Very easily could have said Cole Kmet here but it would be very similar to the paragraph on Fields. Instead I want to talk about former 1st round pick Noah Fant. The once promising prospect now competes for targets with the likes of Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. He may be the head of the committee but I don’t ever want to be using the word “committee” when I am referencing my tight end I drafted in the late 1st round of rookie drafts in 2019. I would not be surprised if he is on your waiver wire by the offseason if things do not improve for Fant.

Stock Up

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts has come out hotter than bacon grease to start the season. The only thing suppressing his value was the potential of the Eagles drafting a QB in 2023. Well if they continue to pile up wins then that will not be part of the conversation and you may have acquired a poor man’s Josh Allen. This Eagles offense has become electric this season but I do want to give a little caution. They have beaten the Lions, Kirk Cousins in primetime, and the Carson Wentz led Commanders. If you roster Hurts you have plenty to be optimistic about, he could be going in the top 5 of Super Flex startups by next spring. 

2023 1sts

I want to turn all my RBs into 2023 picks at this stage unless I am a legitimate contender. As a contender, always be willing to make the move to win a championship. However, the RB market could undergo a massive turnover during this upcoming offseason. Obviously the new blood coming in will have to fit into rankings somewhere but the other thing to consider is that in a deep RB class, a team that already has a talented RB may just draft one to complement the current back. After the NFL draft there will be some good RBs that take massive hits to their value because they are now splitting a backfield. If you are not contending then turning these RBs into capital now can let you buy back into an RB market where many veterans have a suppressed value due to new competition. Either that or you can just draft the backs then. This is a market value move even if you believe many of these guys will actually be fine. 

Chris Olave

13 targets in Week 2 had our curiosity, 9 catches on 13 targets for 147 now has our attention. The top end of this year’s rookie WR class has given us plenty of excitement to start the season. His long term situation at QB may be in flux going forward but that feels like the case for most of these young WRs at this point. A lot of NFL teams cannot say for certain they have their QB in 2023 on their roster. Those teams have their 1sts though so they can go get a QB if they don’t have the answer, the Saints do not. I still love the talent that Olave brings to the table though. 

Jelani Woods

Not somebody you are rolling out to start yet but if you got him with a late dart throw in your rookie draft then you are pleasantly surprised at this stage. With his unbelievable size and athleticism, the red zone should be an area of the field he succeeds at. He had only 16 snaps in the first two games combined and then logged 16 in week 3 and snagged two touchdowns. That should only help his case to get a larger workload on a Colts team desperate for some offensive weapons outside of Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. 

Dynasty Dilemma: Alvin Kamara

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Dynasty Dilemma: Alvin Kamara

By Doug Harrelson

This offseason has been a weird one for those rostering Alvin Kamara. With the expectation put out there of Kamara potentially being suspended for the first six games of the season, Kamara became much more easily acquired over the offseason for contending teams. That coupled with his age at his position made him a truly affordable superstar. When Kamara’s court date got set back and thus his eventual suspension, Kamara managers rejoiced as their true elite fantasy RB would be in their lineups Week 1 this season. Much to their dismay Kamara would be injured in Week 1, miss Week 2 entirely and be incredibly inefficient in Week 3. Now we must figure out what to do with Alvin Kamara in this Dynasty Dilemma. 

Anyone that was on the opposite end of Alvin Kamara in their fantasy finals in 2020 when he hung 6 scores on Christmas Day against the Vikings can give you reasons to buy. I remember being in three separate finals against Alvin Kamara that season and going 0-3 in those finals. When at his peak Alvin Kamara can be a difference maker in fantasy football that not many others are capable of. Right now could be a good chance to buy into the dip after a slow start to the season. If he goes on a run at the end of the season again, having him on your roster could be the difference between bringing home the championship or checking your bylaws to see what the 2nd place payout is. 

Truly elite level talent is rarely available for the price that isn’t gonna cripple your franchise going forward. The volume was still present in Week 3 despite the lack of production. Kamara in his career has normally been one of the most efficient RBs in football. If I am gonna get 70% of the snaps, 15 carries and 7 targets for Kamara on his first game back from a rib injury, I will be happy with whatever my result is from there.

The biggest fear with holding an elite RB is the fear of being caught holding the bag when their value completely disappears. Kamara has held value for a long time now in terms of RB, almost a unicorn at his position being a RB1 every single season he has been in the league. Eventually he will begin to stop producing the way every running back has in the past. This could be the last time to get any sort of return on investment for Alvin Kamara.
Kamara also still has a court case still in his future that could carry with it a multiple game suspension. If it is in your fantasy playoffs it could cost you big time if he was a player you were depending on. Moving him now for a safer player could be the move so you aren’t desperately trying to piece a lineup together in the fantasy playoffs after being the best team all season long. If you are lucky enough to get through this season with no suspension you will likely have to deal with one early next season which will make him very difficult to sell this offseason.


With the obvious disclaimer that this advice applies to serious contenders only, I am buying Alvin Kamara at his current price tag. No clear timeline exists for his impending suspension which could make many that roster Kamara a bit worried. The upside of having a guy that could drop 40 plus in PPR scoring cannot be overstated. There is a real chance you cannot flip him at some point for the 1st you spent to acquire him but I’m more interested in winning championships then I am in winning trades. I would likely try to buy for two 2nds if possible or a 24 1st if pressed.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Garrett Wilson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Garrett Wilson

By Doug Harrelson

 

This past WR draft class has sparked quite a bit of controversy this offseason. If you asked ten different dynasty analysts who their favorite rookie WR was, you could have received four or more different answers. Even the tier lines weren’t always drawn the same with prospects like Skyy Moore and Chris Olave falling into different tiers for different drafters. This year’s class was the ultimate “go get your guy” draft class. Garrett Wilson may not have been the most frequent answer for the top WR but he was in most top 3 lists. In my own personal rankings Wilson was the top WR pre draft and remained there for me post draft. I’ll admit that I was lower on Drake London than the consensus and feel I may have been wrong in my evaluation of him. Nevertheless, Garrett Wilson was going to be a prospect to watch this season, that much is for sure.

 

While in college, Garrett Wilson had to compete for targets in an offense loaded in NFL talent at the WR position. A position group so talented that Jameson Williams had to go to Alabama just to get some playing time. Garrett Wilson jumps off the tape with some of his incredible concentration catches. Beyond just his ability to make some acrobatic catches, Wilson’s route running was NFL ready before he ever heard his name called at NFL Draft. Every skill set you need to be a successful NFL WR, Garrett Wilson has it. NFL scouts felt the same about his tape as dynasty managers did and Garrett Wilson was drafted 10th overall to the Jets, a team hoping to be ascending with all of their other young talent on the roster.

We got to see that translate to the next level in Week 2 as Garrett Wilson was a featured piece to the Jets offense as they pulled out a miraculous win over the Cleveland Browns. Garrett Wilson made big plays in critical moments of the game including the game winning touchdown late in the 4th quarter. The Jets offensive coaches had mentioned after Week 1 that they wanted to get Wilson more involved in the offense. After the result that the Jets got, I imagine they will be looking to implement that gameplan again going forward. Wilson showed off everything we saw on tape from his route running, to his ability to understand coverage and even making contested catches despite the smaller frame.

 

This Jets offense has invested quite a bit of money and draft capital in trying to build around Zach Wilson. All these pieces come at a cost of target share for any one of them. Garrett Wilson may always have a ceiling to his volume in an offense with this many moving pieces. Elijah Moore being another young WR that had a strong finish to last season is likely chief among them. If it were only Moore that would be one thing but the Jets also have veteran WR Corey Davis, two veteran TEs in Uzomah and Conklin and two RBs that are both capable of catching the ball out of the backfield. While no one player in that group crushes in target share, the sum of their targets will limit how much of the passing game work will go to Garrett Wilson.

The QB situation in New York is also riddled with a bit of uncertainty and doubt in both the short term and the long term. In the short term the Jets have former Super Bowl QB Joe Flacco until Zach Wilson recovers fully from an injury suffered in the preseason. While Joe Flacco has shown himself to be serviceable, nobody expects him to throw for 400 plus yards and 4 TDs. This will also limit the ceiling in the present. When Zach Wilson returns, he will have to show that he has made a step up from previous seasons. If Zach Wilson does not then Garrett Wilson is likely to have another young QB next season or a journeyman veteran to bridge the gap. Granted, if Zach Wilson makes a leap in his second year then all needles point up for all players on the Jets’ offense, but the situation is at the present time still uncertain.

We have seen one week wonders in the past, immediately flipping a player drafted in the 1st round one year for two 1st rounders in the following seasons is a fantastic return on your initial investment and immediately liquidates a profitable asset for your dynasty team. Even in the case that Wilson continues to succeed, if those picks are traded for other players on the rise or used to pick players that ascend, you can still come out ahead.

 

It may be very tough to acquire Garrett Wilson at this point but I am buying or holding at this point. It is like gonna cost you either two 1sts or likely a decent player and a 1st. If I felt myself needing to rebuild, I would maybe use this as an opportunity to move an asset like CMC or Mike Evans straight up. The window to buy could completely close if he has one more big game so be aggressive if you do not have many shares of Garrett Wilson in your dynasty portfolio so if you want to join the ride you better jump on now.

 

Dynasty Stock Watch: Week 2

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Dynasty Stock Watch: Week 2

By Doug Harrelson

 

The NFL is back! If you are like me, and you are on this website so I assume you are, then this time of year has you grinning ear to ear. Finally these players and assets we have acquired have started to have some noticeable movement. Trading in all of my leagues has seen a considerable uptick as player values begin to change. If it is tough to keep up with who is up in value and who is down, don’t panic, I will be giving you a Dynasty Stock Watch article every other week with all the information you need to trade responsibly in your dynasty leagues.

 

Rams RBs (Akers/Henderson)

Maybe the first thing the dynasty community noticed in this regular season was the usage rate of the Rams RBs on Thursday night against the Buffalo Bills. All offseason the belief was that Cam Akers would lead the backfield and dominate touches while Henderson would be used sparingly as a 3rd down back and as a handcuff for Akers. Sean McVay, like many great NFL head coaches, has shown once again he is not a big fan of our fantasy teams. Henderson dominated the snaps and touches while Akers was mostly used to spell Henderson here and there. The obvious thing to say here is that Akers’ stock is up and Henderson’s is down but the action to take from here is the more important part. If I roster Akers on my dynasty team, I unfortunately am probably forced to hold here. The window to sell RBs often closes immediately when it does. Do not panic though, perhaps over the season usage will change or maybe there is an injury. Henderson has had issues being the main guy in the past due to his injury history. As for those that roster Henderson, you have kinda lucked up or you saw this coming in which case, kudos to you. If I am a contender I am happy to have him as a usable piece going forward but in a rebuild I may look to sell to a contender who may need backfield help. I would approach the teams with Akers and Mitchell as a starting place.

 

Chiefs RBs (Edwards-Helaire/McKinnon/Pacheco)

 Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Perhaps one of the backfields that caused the most controversy in the preseason was the Kansas City Chiefs. Those just looking at box scores may just see this as a win for all backs involved. These are places you can take advantage of the perceived value of a player's stock. CEH put up two TDs leading a lot of managers to believe that this is the year we have been waiting for. Looking deeper into the numbers you will see that he and McKinnon actually had the same number of snaps. Touchdown upside will exist for anyone on the field at the same time as Patrick Mahomes but I think this small spike in value may not be a bad time to get out from your investment in CEH. McKinnon does seem like he will maintain his role from last year but probably not enough for him to be a startable piece on your dynasty team. Just enough to keep CEH from being the RB we want him to be. Finally, the name nobody knew how to pronounce in June but in August was the centerpiece to a lot of chatter in the offseason, Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco truthers will want to point out the touches he got. A more detailed look reveals that a majority of them came when the game was already locked up. If the score was closer I believe we could take more out of this but as it stands, this could have just been the Chiefs calling off the dogs seeing as Chad Henne was the QB for many of Pacheco’s carries. He could still have a role as the between the tackles RB when the Chiefs are trying to ice the game away. I am not too excited about that prospect in PPR formats. His stock remains where it was at the end of the preseason. If you wanted in you probably already bought in, if you wanted to sell you probably already did, this feels like a hold.

 

Trey Lance

Trey Lance’s dynasty value is dropping fast and I believe completely unfairly. The situation with Garoppolo has given the 49ers access to an easy out if he underperforms this season which has caused some unrest in the dynasty community involving his long term outlook. This situation became worse after the 49ers lost to the Bears this Sunday. I do believe we have a bit of an overreaction from this game. Anyone who tuned into this game could see that this was an NFL game effectively played in a swimming pool. If you were a fan of Trey Lance and think he is gonna be a good fantasy QB going forward, this may be your last chance to buy in. Understand that you are taking on some risk but hey, no risk-it and no biscuit.

Cole Kmet

The recipe seemed certain for fantasy success coming into the 2022 season for Cole Kmet. The young TE had 93 targets last season despite the presence of veteran Jimmy Graham on the roster. This year the Bears did minimal to improve their group of pass catchers and Jimmy Graham is no longer with the team. There was also an expectation of positive touchdown regression when Kmet scored as many TDs in the NFL last year as I did. I started Kmet this week on many of my teams and was quite disappointed in his bagel he left in my scoring column. Just like I said when referring to Trey Lance, I would not take too much stock in the results of this game. All the things we have said going into the season for Kmet are still true so if there is a dip in value, buy in now.

CeeDee Lamb

(Smiley N. Pool/The Dallas Morning News)

After a day of incredible NFL games, the Buccaneers and Cowboys game was a bit of a snooze fest. The Cowboys offense in particular was incredibly disappointing after last season. A lot of people, myself included, expected this to be the season that CeeDee Lamb made the jump to that upper tier of WR1s. The matchup against the Bucs defense was tough and Lamb was very disappointing including some drops. Obviously the biggest blow to his value though has nothing to do with what I just said despite all of that being worrisome. The biggest issue is that he will not be catching passes from Dak Prescott for the next few weeks. His ceiling here in particular takes a huge hit. If you are rostering Lamb at this point, I think you are stuck between a rock and a hard place. You probably still have to throw him in your starting lineup with an uncomfortable feeling in your stomach. Selling now would be a massive loss on what was likely an expensive investment at this point. If you do not roster him then perhaps this is a buy low window but it may be hard to convince someone to take the massive loss on investment at this point. Maybe wait a week or two and see if their tone changes.

Jahan Dotson

No WR drafted in the 1st round of this year's NFL draft had received less buzz this offseason than Jahan Dotson. So naturally what does he do? He comes out and catches two touchdowns in his first NFL game. Highly regarded out of college but the landing spot concerned a lot of dynasty managers. Perhaps unfairly though. Carson Wentz may not be an elite or even a good NFL QB, but a lot of his issues have more to do with turnovers rather than lack of ability to get the ball down the field. This Sunday we got to have the full Carson Wentz experience. Some big plays, some good drives, some bad interceptions to let Jacksonville back in the game. Everything we have come to expect from Wentz. After a big week 1 Dotson has seen a tick up in value across the industry. I do believe that he was undervalued going in so this feels like his value is going in the direction it should be but there are some important things to note. He is going to be the number two WR on this team for a while with McLaurin signing that new deal locking him into the nation's capital thru 2025. Another thing to note is that of his three catches on Sunday, two of them went for touchdowns. Obviously that rate cannot continue. It is fine to be encouraged and excited about what we saw in week 1 but do expect some up and down weeks to be coming for the rookie. All that being said, I am still happy to buy in on Dotson even at his increased price tag.

Knowing when to buy or sell a player is one of the most important skills for a successful dynasty manager. I hope this breakdown has been helpful for you knowing who to buy and who to sell this week in your dynasty leagues. We will be back to look at more player stocks after week 3 but until then, Happy Trading!

Fantasy Season Advice

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Fantasy Season Advice

By Doug Harrelson

 

At the time of writing this, we are only hours away from the beginning of Bills @ Rams and the start to the NFL season. Months and months of trading and drafting to arrive at this point. The stances you have taken all offseason on players that you think have the potential to put you over the top this year. The whole dynasty offseason has been in preparation for this 17 week grind of sit/start decisions, waiver claims and mid season trading. Is this the year your squad gets to that next step? Maybe this season is not likely to be successful but could set you up for future success down the road. Week 1 marks the beginning of that championship journey that you hope to be on. Here’s some takeaways I have from my years in playing dynasty football.

The first bit of advice I want to offer, do not overreact to Week 1 results. Aaron Rodgers looked awful and the Packers got smoked by the Jameis Winston lead Saints in Week 1 last year. Aaron Rodgers won the MVP and had the Packers as a 1 seed in the NFC while Winston and the Saints missed the playoffs. A single week sample size can sometimes cause a dramatic over correction. Too many times a dynasty team will lose Week 1 and then begin selling pieces off and go into a dramatic rebuild when they just needed to ride the wave a bit. Don’t let a rocky start cause you to lose focus of the goal at the end of the season. Take a hard look at your roster and see if you have the depth and/or upside pieces to recover if some of your starters get injured or begin underperforming.

So I told you not to overreact, well I now need you to make sure you do react. There are some things that are important to notice in Week 1. What is the backfield split for this team? What is the target share for the WR2? What are the snap counts for IDPs? Who is lining up where in the formation? This is the most recent and only real up to date data we have on these players and teams. You need to take an honest look at your team and start to decide who might not be able to help you this season and see if you have the starting lineup and depth to compete this year. Sometimes that means making the move on to next season early. Especially if there are multiple injuries to your starting lineup or to the same position group.

Most of this advice applies to contenders but just because you are rebuilding doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be super active during the season. All of my leagues do a reverse MAX PF or PP system that awards draft position by least possible points or least maximum points for, because of this I always try and set a good lineup even on teams where I am actively blowing it up. It helps the league maintain integrity plus it’s always fun to cost someone a first round bye or knock them out of the playoffs altogether. I also stay extremely active on the waiver claims. I typically will then try and flip the player to the other managers that bid on that player. It’s an easy way to pick up a bunch of lottery tickets for your rebuild since most of those waiver pickups will not be on your roster the following season.

If you are contending though, this is the time to strike. Make that trade for an aging RB, losing your late 2nd. Too many championships are lost because you don’t have the depth when you get to the playoffs. Don’t trade for these guys when you need them, trade for them now. Especially if you can find that one manager that is overreacting to Week 1. Use his fire sale as a way to stock up on some depth for when things get rough in your fantasy playoffs. Next year, another supply of draft picks down the road will appear. Championships don’t just come every year. Don’t be afraid to lose those picks, be afraid to miss out on championships.

Above all, enjoy this time of year. We spend months every single year doing the roster management phase to try and show that the team we can put together in our dynasty leagues is better than every other member of our league. The players you invested in all offseason are now finally gonna score us some fantasy points. This fantastic game of dynasty fantasy football we play all comes down to these couple of months.

Enjoy the season and Good Luck!

Dynasty Death Match: Isaiah Spiller vs Zamir White

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Dynasty Death Match: Isaiah Spiller vs Zamir White

By Doug Harrelson

 

This year’s draft class is not one likely to go down as an all time great in your dynasty league. The 2nd round picks in past years could get you some really nice pieces and proved to be extremely valuable especially in those SuperFlex leagues where the talent gets pushed down much further. After a 1st round loaded with WR talent, we reach this spot in the draft with a handful of RBs that are very close in talent and situation. Deciding which one to add to your roster could give you that huge value boost of a guy you could be starting down the final stretch of the season or could be cut from your roster in two years when they have failed to even sniff the field in a regular season game. Two such backs going in this range are Isaiah Spiller out of Texas A&M and Zamir White out of Georgia.

College Tape and Draft Capital

Draft capital is a complete and total wash since White and Spiller literally went back to back in the NFL draft last spring. Perhaps if we could put Chargers GM Tom Telesco under some truth serum he may tell us whether or not he would have taken Zamir White had the Raiders not taken him just one pick before. The only thing to take from the draft capital is the Raiders clearly preferred White, but we cannot be certain how much they preferred him. Mid 4th round draft capital is still early enough that I’m not panicked for either Spiller or White. We prefer the RBs with the Day 2 draft capital but RB is a position where we do see plenty of success from rounds 4-7 and even the occasional UDFA RB make a big splash. At one point during college Isaiah Spiller was considered to be the last guy in that upper tier of RBs in this class. The combination of draft capital and landing spot seemed to move him down a lot of boards as we got into our dynasty rookie draft season. A lot of positives stick out from Spiller’s game in college. Spiller has this excellent combination of power and elusiveness. He has an excellent ability to use that elusiveness in combination with his vision to find cutback lanes and create big plays. Spiller also does not shy away from contact and finishes runs hard which can be the difference between 2nd and 8 versus 2nd and 6. Things that are small to NFL fans but major to NFL head coaches. Spiller also showed some reasonable pass catching ability, perhaps not elite but good enough that if the role is available he can be successful. The biggest negative I saw from his college tape was sometimes he would try to cut back and make the big play which would result in a loss of yardage. Sometimes you just need to turn a negative play into a 1 to 2 yard game and live to fight another down. Negative plays sink drives so quickly. Very fixable issue though.

Whenever another Georgia RB comes to the NFL we are obligated to pay attention. Zamir White is no different. I may be alone in saying this but he was the preferred Georgia RB this year for me, over James Cook. The first thing that stands out on the tape for Zamir white is his ability to finish a run. The first defender usually has to get dragged for a couple yards until help arrives to bring him down. He may not be the strongest RB we have seen but he continues to drive his legs which results in a bunch of extra yardage that can help keep drives going. Zamir is also not a guy that will have many negative plays, he is extremely patient for his blocks to develop and has decent burst for a guy his size to attack the hole and start moving upfield. He has also shown some ability to catch the ball but I’m not sure that is where he is at his best. In the right offense he can be a check down back but I’m not sure there is a ton of upside in his pass catching.

From a fantasy football perspective, I give Spiller a small nod on the tape. The upside feels a little higher for Spiller while White feels safer. Spiller’s shiftiness can help him score you a bunch of fantasy points as a pass catching back while White is gonna need to either be a workhorse or get a lot of goal line work to reach his ceiling. Tape is not the only thing that matters for RB but for now, small edge to Spiller.

Opportunity

Josh Jacobs is entering the final year of his rookie deal in Las Vegas, an organization that seems to be wanting to clean house of the old regime and start fresh by getting their guys. Despite being a 1st round pick in the 2019 draft class, many would not consider Jacobs to be an elite talent. The Raiders may be even among those as they have declined the 5th year option on him which means he will likely be wearing another jersey in the 2023 season. We also saw Jacobs playing a lot of meaningful snaps in preseason which has many analysts believing that Jacobs is having to compete to hold the starting job under the new coaching staff. It would not be crazy to see a split early on in favor of Jacobs that slowly begins to lean towards White, just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Sharp dynasty minds can see the incredible upside in the landing spot for White.

Isaiah Spiller has a trickier road ahead of him. Austin Ekeler is a special offensive weapon that compliments the Chargers pass heavy approach by being one of the best pass catching RBs in the game. While they can get out from Ekeler’s contract and save about $6 million from the cap, the deal is pretty team friendly for a player of Ekeler’s caliber so that seems unlikely. Ekeler himself has come out and said he wants a 1A and 1B situation in order to preserve him throughout the season and his career so there is a chance we could have a useful spell back here. The problem is that Spiller still remains behind third year RB Josh Kelley on the depth chart. All of this combined makes the future for Spiller a little blurry and gives uncertainty for when we might see him carve out a role. This is the NFL though, and RB rooms in August seldom look the same by December so perhaps we just need to wait for his talent to give him a chance to get on the field. (Note: This was written before the signing of Sony Michel, this certainly doesn’t help Spiller but is likely not a major change, the crowded room remains crowded)

 

Winner: Zamir White

I am happy to roster either of these backs as I think they are not expensive to acquire and go in the early to mid 40s in ADP at RB and could have some immediate upside should there be any injuries in their respective backfields. The lean for Zamir White is the situation is significantly better at this point. He has fewer bodies to fight through in order to get a chance on the field and has a clear opportunity to be the lead guy in 2023. The 2023 rookie RB class could throw a wrench in this if the Raiders draft another RB as teams often do but it feels like more needs to go right for Spiller to get a chance to be the guy than it does White.