Doug Harrelson

2023 Offseason Look Ahead: Wide Receivers Part 1

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2023 Offseason Look Ahead: Wide Receivers Part 1

By Doug Harrelson

We have fully hit mock draft season and everyone is in the process of fine-tuning rookie ranks while rookie hype is building up more and more each day. This is always an excellent time to be buying veterans for a discounted rate. None of the receivers we are about to talk about have expensive price tags but some of them possess some real upside for the 2023 season. The WR market also has some big fish potentially available for trade like DeAndre Hopkins and Brandin Cooks. Today we are gonna focus on the ones that we know will be available as free agents this offseason. For Part 1 we are also going to primarily focus on WRs that line up on the outside then for Part 2 we will look into slot receivers and tight ends. Without further adieu, let's introduce you to the 2023 wide receiver free agent class.

Michael Thomas

Best Case: NYG

The Michael Thomas situation is quite confusing at this point but the Saints restructured his contract in such a way that they can let go of Thomas sooner and save some money on the books. Thomas is on board with this because it will allow him to hit free agency sooner to try to land a lucrative deal this offseason. I like the idea of giving Daniel Jones a target that can help him move the sticks. A big-bodied possession receiver could be just the answer he needs. Daniel Jones’ accuracy on intermediate routes pairs nicely with how well Michael Thomas works in this range. I doubt we ever get anything like his historic 2019 season again out of him but anyone that has rostered him this long would be happy to even get WR3 numbers out of him next season at this point. If you have a new member taking over an orphan team in a league, this is the kind of player they will easily part ways with as a throw-in on a bigger trade. 

DJ Chark

Best Case: DAL

After a nice start to his career, Chark suffered a bad ankle injury right before hitting free agency that made a 1-year “prove-it” deal in Detroit the best option for DJ Chark. Unfortunately for him, I’m not sure he will get a lucrative contract this off-season. He may again be looking for a chance to prove himself worth the bigger multi-year deal. A spot that would make a lot of sense if that is his plan for the offseason is Dallas. Their primary WR is CeeDee Lamb but he does a majority of his work from the slot. Adding a receiver like Chark to the outside adds a deep threat for Dak. A guy he can throw it up to and let him play some bully ball. Plus with Dalton Schultz potentially leaving in free agency, they could use the red zone threat that DJ Chark provides.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Best Case: BUF

If you do not think that JuJu Smith-Schuster can beat out Gabe Davis then this is obviously a much worse landing spot. I think it will spark a hot debate over the offseason and allow you to move off of JuJu Smith-Schuster before the season starts. There is some enticing upside here when he was a number two wide receiver to Antonio Brown he was going in the first round of startup drafts. I am not a huge fan of his talent and his game so I am not as excited about his 2023 prospects. He will certainly find a landing spot that will get him some touches but he did this year as well and was maddeningly inconsistent. It is hard for me to get too excited for a player who is leaving an offseason with the best quarterback on the planet for anywhere else. If I had shares, I would keep my fingers crossed for a good landing spot and then flip for the best I can get. 

Allen Lazard

Best Case: Wherever Rodgers Goes

The Lizard King will be out on the open market this offseason. Lazard has been a trusted weapon of Aaron Rodgers for a few years now, in particular in the red zone. We do not have a great sample size of Lazard without Rodgers so it is hard to say what happens if they are separated this offseason. One interesting possibility is the idea of them playing together for another team like the Jets. I could see him trying to follow Aaron Rodgers to another team but if not, he would be a fine addition to any contender looking for a capable threat in the red zone like Dallas or New England.

Darius Slayton

Best Case: KC

Darius Slayton is so close to being a really nice dynasty asset. His ability to get open down the field is fantastic. The combination of drops and not having a quarterback with an elite deep ball has hurt his production quite a bit though. If he were to get unlocked by a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes though, all bets are off. The Chiefs may get more production out of Slayton than they ever did with JuJu Smith-Schuster. This could be a very cost-effective way for the Chiefs to give Mahomes some deep weapons to work with while spending more of their cap space on the defensive end of the ball that they so desperately need help on. 

Marvin Jones Jr.

Best Case: CHI

The Bears trading for Chase Claypool was designed to give a big body and a deep threat. It has not exactly panned out the way they planned though. Marvin Jones Jr. could provide some cheap help on the outside that could be used both as a deep threat, a red zone threat, and a possession receiver to move the sticks. It isn’t exactly flashy or exciting but I think the Bears are going to want to add multiple bodies to their wide receiver room this offseason. They could easily trade for another wide receiver and draft someone and still have room in the starting rotation for Marvin Jones Jr. I don’t think there is too much upside in acquiring him in dynasty but it is nice to at least consider the possibilities that exist after free agency.

2023 Offseason Look Ahead: Running Back Part 2

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2023 Offseason Look Ahead: Running Back Part 2

By Doug Harrelson

The article I wrote last week was about lead running backs, this week we are taking a better look at complementary backs. Some guys are right on the threshold of both. Guys like Alexander Mattison and Tony Pollard that I wrote about last week may end up in complementary roles while some of these guys may get lucky enough to be the lead guy in a backfield when free agency and the draft are done. I am only going to be discussing backs not previously discussed in Part 1. Most of these guys are relatively cheap and may even find their way onto the waiver wire at some point. Most teams will be looking for depth during the offseason so we are going to focus more on the potential free agents rather than the potential landing spots.

Devin Singletary

Best Case: BUF starter

I believe it is more likely than not the Bills will let Singletary walk and probably draft or pick someone up in free agency to pair with James Cook in the backfield. If Singletary can stay there though, he will always have some touchdown upside. He has been an overachiever since the Bills drafted him. He has managed to secure a lot of volume for a guy as small in stature as Singletary is. There is a chance he is starting somewhere next season but I think the most likely scenario is he is in a committee or used primarily as a spell back to change up the pace. 

JaMycal Hasty

Best Case: MIA Starter

I am likely higher than the consensus on Hasty but every time I see him get touches he does something explosive with them. It is worth a look on your waiver wire for Hasty. The biggest fear I have for Hasty is that he could end up back in Jacksonville behind Etienne again. He is a restricted free agent so the Jags can easily hold onto him should they wish to. If Hasty can get out of being a backup, he has shown the ability to both create big plays and finish at the goal line. If given the right workload I could see Hasty being one of the biggest steals of your offseason.

James Robinson

Best Case: LV Starter

James Robinson managers have been through quite the up-and-down experience with James Robinson. After a promising rookie year, the Jaguars take Etienne in the 1st round, and then Robinson suffers a terrible Achilles injury at the end of that season. With everyone expecting Etienne to take over, Robinson is surprisingly effective early in the season despite being just a few months removed from the injury. Robinson was then traded to the Jets who lost Breece Hall but Robinson ends up getting beaten out for touches by Zonovan “Bam” Knight and Michael Carter. While Robinson is technically an RFA, I see no real reason for the Jets to keep him when they weren’t using him with Breece Hall not available. With Hall coming back, Robinson is likely to be available in free agency. I like the idea of him landing in Vegas to replace the touches from Josh Jacobs. Likely cheaper for the Raiders than Jacobs if they want to go after a veteran QB in the offseason. 

D’Ernest Johnson

Best Case: BUF Starter

This is one of the high-upside players available in this free-agency class. With minimal tread on the tires playing behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the right landing spot could cause a massive bump in his value on the spot. Right now you may be able to get him off of waivers or as an add-in on a trade with a huge upside. He has looked the part coming in due to injuries. I like the idea of landing him in Buffalo to be the 1st and 2nd down guy to go with James Cook as the guy they split out and use on 3rd down. He could be successful in a variety of situations as long as he can get some volume. All this being said, my strategy here is to flip him if a landing spot causes a jump in value. Flipping RBs for anything always looks good when you look back two years before. 

Raheem Mostert

Best Case: MIA Starter

Much less true upside on this one. The Dolphins could easily draft someone or pick up any of these potential free agents to take over the backfield. Mostert has some impressive traits but isn’t getting younger. If he lands back in Miami and they do not add anyone to the backfield, he will still be serviceable as some depth. Either way, wherever he goes, he is going to need to get lucky to get a majority of the workload and probably doesn’t do enough in the passing game to get there as a change of pace back.

Rashaad Penny

Best Case: NYG Starter

This landing spot only works if the Giants do not re-sign Barkley. I feel like he is likely to go to a place that also drafts a back. I can’t think an NFL team would be willing to trust Penny exclusively as their plan at Running Back given his injury history. Penny has shown to be capable of some high-level running even if he has never given a good return on his 1st round investment. Penny is a guy that I root for to stay healthy because I’m sure the experience he has had in the NFL with all the injuries has been a tough one to go through.

Boston Scott

Best Case: KC Spell Back

Most of you are likely familiar with Boston Scott as that guy that snipes all of Sanders's touchdowns against the Giants. For those unaware, Boston Scott has 16 career rushing touchdowns with 9 of them against the New York Giants. Scott has a small frame that he uses to be elusive. That skill set could be highly utilized by a coach like Andy Reid in all sorts of ways. Using him to offset a guy like Pacheco who works between the tackles could be interesting for a guy like Scott. He likely is already rostered by the Miles Sanders manager in your league that would happily move off of him as a throw-in on another deal. 

This is a group I love to try and get shares of for the cheap and try to flip with a good landing spot. I can also be convinced to hold if I think the spot could work out for them in the season and I am a contender needing some depth. I would try to sell these guys pre-draft if you decide you want to sell. The hype of the landing spot after free agency can take a massive hit if Bijan or Gibbs come to town. It happens every year so don’t get greedy and be caught holding the bag. I hope everyone is enjoying their Dynasty offseason and the NFL Offseason, Good luck and Happy Trading!

2023 Offseason Look Ahead: Running Back Part 1

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2023 Offseason Look Ahead: Running Back Part 1

By Doug Harrelson

 

 

The 2022 NFL postseason has begun as well as the beginning of the dynasty offseason. The early process of building out a rookie draft board and evaluating your team's chances for the 2023 season. It is a fun time of year where hope springs eternal for your team whether rebuilding or competing for the championship this year. Knowing how your team will look after the offseason is easier said than done. The lead back this past season may not be the lead back next season for many backfields. This week we are going to focus in particular on the lead backs as we look ahead to the offseason in front of us.

 

Like with the Quarterback discussion, we need to discuss the assumptions we are working with. I will take a different approach with the RBs though. I am assuming all the pending FA RBs will in fact hit free agency. Obviously teams can sign or franchise a guy but that takes one guy out of the free agency pool and one lead running back seat out of the ecosystem. Unlike quarterbacks though, running backs are much more likely to hit free agency even after a big season. I am also aware a few teams could cut RBs as cap savings or to move towards a rebuild like Dallas, Tennessee or Tampa Bay. 

 

At a glance, these are the teams that could be in the market for a guy to lead the backfield (get at least 55% of the RB touches):

MIA, BUF, LV, KC, ARI, CHI, ATL, CAR, PHI, WAS, NYG

 

Obviously teams like the Raiders and Giants could franchise tag or keep their star RB but for the sake of argument let's say they walk. We will also have at least one team sign or draft a guy that we like that could hurt both of their values. We see it every single offseason. Finally we could have some teams just roll with what they have there already. For Example, KC with Pacheco, Las Vegas with Zamir White or Chicago with Khalil Herbert. So it looks like we have eleven teams that could be in the market for a lead guy in their backfield. At the time of writing, I see about eight guys I believe are good enough in free agency to warrant 55% of the touches. This opens up about three spots for rookies (in a good RB class as well) or fringe starters. We expect more than three RBs in this class to be main guy material so some of these guys will end up with a smaller workshare. Let’s discuss the potential lead backs now.

 

 

TIER ONE

 

Saquan Barkley

Best Case: Miami Dolphins Starter

The prized jewel of the free agent class. Saquan Barkley is everything you could possibly want in an elite running back. I think the most likely scenario for him is to be franchise tagged by the Giants but assuming he does hit the market, I think the most exciting landing spot is Miami. With the threat of two of the fastest in the league on the outside, it will be hard for teams to bring a safety into the box to deal with Saquan. The Dolphins would have perhaps one of the most terrifying groups of skill players in the entire NFL. That being said, he feels landing spot proof. The unique talents of Saquan Barkley are going to produce fantasy points wherever he plays at.

 

Josh Jacobs

(Aric Crabb/Bay Area News Group)

Best Case: Philadelphia Eagles Starter

While I think there is a good chance the Giants keep Barkley, I do think the Raiders may be willing to move off of Jacobs. With their QB situation an issue and Jacobs not likely to do any favors after his fifth year option was declined by the team, it seems likely that Jacobs will hit the market. He will draw attention for anyone looking to beef up their RB room. I like the idea of landing him in Philly to complement that group of offensive weapons and take over for fellow free agent running back Miles Sanders. I am not sure what his passing game usage will be wherever he goes but it likely cannot be less. Jacobs has shown to be consistently able to produce between the tackles so no matter where he goes, he is sure to get a large workload.

 

TIER TWO

 

Kareem Hunt

(Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com)

Best Case: Buffalo Bills Starter

The real best spot is Kansas City for Hunt’s skill set but given his history with the Chiefs, I do not foresee that coming to pass. If Kareem Hunt were to sign in Buffalo, his value would skyrocket to the moon. Granted, most RBs would get a boost being put in an offense like Buffalo’s but Hunt in particular has the perfect skill set to really succeed in that offense. He can both run between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield. Operates at his best in space which will be provided in ample amounts thanks to the Bills spread offense. We have been waiting for Hunt to get a backfield to himself for a while now, hopefully this offseason he finally does.

 

Miles Sanders

(AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Best Case: Kansas City Chiefs Starter

Another location that would help a lot of RBs value provided they can beat out Pacheco for the job. I know a lot of people are high on Pacheco but I think Miles Sanders is clearly the better talent. Miles Sanders could give the Chiefs yet another source of offensive explosion to complement the aerial assault provided by Patrick Mahomes. A lot of this redzone nonsense the Chiefs do could really suit Sanders athletic skill set. Miles Sanders gets a weird reputation in the dynasty community but I think a lot of that has to do with his inconsistent volume in Philly as well as freakishly bad touchdown luck in 2021. This season Miles Sanders has been very solid for fantasy managers and more than paid off his offseason ADP. I look forward to seeing where he lands in 2023.

 

David Montgomery

Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Best Case: Miami Dolphins Starter

I have tried really hard to not just list the same places multiple times but the Miami job would be good for a variety of players. Montgomery would fit so nicely in the scheme the Dolphins run. With Saquan Barkley, he will be successful wherever he goes because of how far above the curve he is at everything. Montgomery however, will be a bit more landing spot dependent. I don’t think he needs to be in an offense that heavily uses their backs in the passing game, he just needs to be in an offense that is efficient when it runs the ball. The landing spot of Miami would give him ample opportunity to succeed without too much competition for reps in the backfield. 

 

TIER THREE

 

Tony Pollard

Best Case: Kansas City Chiefs Starter

This final tier is guys that will have to get lucky to avoid a committee situation where they are the 1B. At the top of this tier is Tony Pollard. Pollard has been usable in fantasy despite being the second fiddle in the Cowboys offense thanks to his big play ability. Similar to the reasons for Miles Sanders, Pollard could give them more access to explosive plays out of the backfield. His offseason value could have a massive spike even if it isn’t Kansas City that he lands in. If you want to buy him this could be the last window to do so. You are taking on risk that the NFL sees him as a complementary piece and not a full time guy, but the upside in the right situation is hard to ignore. 

 

Jamaal Williams

Best Case: New York Giants Starter

Jamaal Williams has been awesome in fantasy football for us this past season. A word of caution though, a bulk of his fantasy scoring has come from scoring touchdowns. The issue is that those are difficult to repeat. His best hope is to land somewhere that he will get most of the work near the goal line. I think the Giants could provide such a home if Saquan is off somewhere else to get a payday. While Daniel Jones possesses mobility, he is not built for running near the goal line like some of these other bulkier mobile QBs like Hurts and Allen. The Giants also lack elite pass catching options to trust in the red zone. Jamaal Williams could be used to grind out wins with that improving defense and play complementary football. 

 

Alexander Mattison

Best Case: Chicago Bears Starter

Within the Vikings’ locker room, Alexander Mattison has the nickname the “sous-chef.” Throughout his career, Mattison has been an elite handcuff option for Davlin Cook managers. This offseason, Mattison will get a chance to dip his toes into the free agent waters and perhaps be a backup no more. Every time Mattison has had an opportunity he has been terrific. If he could ever get consistent volume perhaps he could make the jump. The idea of him landing in Chicago makes a lot of sense to me. A team without a ton of good pass catching options that is likely to be a run first team next season would really be good for Mattison. The difficult part about this landing spot would be beating out Khalil Herbert for more touches. If he can, I could see him being very successful and help give the Bears a physical identity to match the environment of Chicago in the cold winter months. 

 

While the upside of some of these guys is clear, I would approach with caution. Like I said before, at least one of them will get into a bad situation because a team drafts another back or signs multiple. The tier one guys I feel confident in wherever they land. The tier two guys have me reasonably confident but aware that they could get beaten out by a rookie or end up in a committee situation. Some of the tier three guys will land a gig all to themselves while I believe that some of the tier three guys will end up splitting the workload. I will see you next week with the complementary backs of this free agency class! Good Luck and Happy Trading!

2023 Offseason Look Ahead: Quarterback

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2023 Offseason Look Ahead: Quarterback

By Doug Harrelson

 

 

As we finish up our 2022 seasons and try to wrap up championships, this also becomes a good time to start sculpting your lineup for the upcoming offseason. There is a serious edge to be gained by jumping on these pieces before we know exactly where they will end up. Many players see reduced value at this stage due to their uncertainty. This becomes an excellent time to buy them before their price goes up as they land a quality opportunity during the offseason. This week we will start by looking at the Quarterback position in particular. While much of this discussion can apply to 1QB leagues, a majority of these guys are really only significant pieces when we start to speak about SuperFlex leagues. 

 

To start this off we need to make a couple of assumptions or the number of permutations get unwieldy to deal with. That’s how this brief article ends up a small book that requires multiple sit downs to read through and starts to get simply dizzying to process. Here are my basic assumptions that should happen this offseason.

 

  • Lamar Jackson remains in Baltimore either by franchise tag or extension
  • Daniel Jones remains in New York either by franchise tag or extension
  • Pittsburgh and Tennessee do not draft a rookie Quarterback in this years draft
  • Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, and Geno Smith retain starting positions going into 2023
  • Derek Carr is on a new team in 2023
  • Denver does not make a move in the offseason at Quarterback
  • Tom Brady retires… again
  • Ryan Tannehill will not be in Tennessee next season

The first two of these I believe get done. The Ravens situation may get hairy over the offseason but I believe a deal will get done or Lamar will play on the franchise tag. The Giants I could see hitting Jones with the tag. He has improved this season despite not having a ton of talent around him. If they use the tag on Barkley then they may need to find a way to extend him. Both Tennessee and Pittsburgh could theoretically move off their sophomore QBs but I think both will give their guy a second season to work it out. The Panthers and Falcons also drafted quarterbacks but I feel would be willing to take a QB if one they like is on the board and they are on the clock or can trade up. Next we have a group of vets; Cousins, Goff and Geno Smith. This group of veterans is interesting here. Cousins feels safe thanks to a really good first season with Kevin O’Connell. Goff and Geno may see a young QB drafted in their locker room but they have both earned the right to be the starter until someone beats them out. Both of those teams have high draft picks but not because of the play of Goff or Geno but because of trading the previous quarterback to a team that bombed this year. Perhaps the two teams with the best situation going into the offseason. When I originally wrote this article I had assumed Carr would still be in Las Vegas but recent news obviously suggests otherwise. While Denver cannot be happy with their quarterback situation, they have no real way to do much about it due to the contract for Wilson. Freshly divorced Tom may now have nothing to keep him from playing, this year has not seemed fun for the GOAT, I imagine we are seeing his final few games here. There are rumors of Tom finding a new team in 2023 but I’ll believe that when I see it. Finally I believe that this will be the final season of Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee. With a new GM coming in and Tennessee likely heading towards a rebuild, it is likely best for both parties to have a fresh start. 

 

We still have one major domino we are unsure of though at this point. Will Aaron Rodgers be the starting QB in Green Bay? If the Packers make the playoffs then I believe there is a chance he stays in Green Bay but if not then a lot of this gets messy as someone will be bidding highly to acquire his services. In that hypothetical, the Jets and the Raiders seem like the best possible landing spots for him. From this point forward, for the sake of discussion, we will assume he is wearing green and yellow for the Packers next season. If he is gone I don’t anticipate another move at QB for the Packers and for Jordan Love to just move into the starting role. 

 

So we end up with 20 teams that will likely make no moves at the QB position.

BUF, NE, MIA, BAL, PIT, CIN, CLE, JAC, TEN, DEN, KC, LAC, DAL, NYG, PHI, GB, CHI, SF, LAR, ARI

 

We have three teams that would only likely be in the market for a young QB

SEA, DET, MIN

 

Finally we have a group of 8 teams that could be in the market for a veteran and/or a rookie

NYJ, IND, WAS, ATL, CAR, NO, TB, HOU, LV

 

So now we must look at this upcoming Quarterback class, it appears that there are ~4-5 potential 1st round picks at QB this offseason. While later draft picks do succeed from time to time, teams do not often depend on them right off the bat. So with a potential 8 seats opened up in the offseason, up to half of them could be taken by rookies. Some things could shake that up, Seattle and Detroit being the big ones. They are both looking at a top 10 pick and while they have gotten reasonable play from their veteran QBs, it would not shock anyone if either of those teams took a QB. We could also have situations where a team both drafts a guy and brings in a veteran to compete and/or bring the young QB along. Finally if Rodgers is moved, a seat will be lost as Love would move up. So approximately 3-6 spots will be available for veteran QBs this offseason. Now let's look at our veteran QB market of who could potentially be available.

 

Derek Carr

(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Best Case: NYJ starter

 

The Derek Carr news earlier this week has confirmed something that had some rumors circulating with the potential of the Raiders moving on from Carr. A lot of people have already begun photoshopping him in a Colts jersey but I think the Jets situation is better overall. The offensive line looks like it is heading in the right direction, a stout defense coupled with a great group of young pass catchers and a solid backfield group seems like a good landing spot. The Jet’s seem to be trending in the right direction and they know Carr is capable of stepping in and giving them some solid veteran play. 

 

Mike White

(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Best Case: NYJ starter

The Jets situation is a bit difficult to figure out. As I’ve mentioned before they seem to be trending in the right direction and therefore are quite an attractive location for a QB to land. White is an unrestricted free agent this offseason but I think the Jets will want to keep him and I think it is best for White to stay in New York as well. Excellent pass catching group of young talented players with a stout defense on the other side. The Jets could also be in the market for Carr, Rodgers or Garoppolo and I think this is likely the best spot for any QB to land after the offseason. If White is replaced, I would like Washington as a potential landing spot for the veteran. There is also the chance they retain White and go after another veteran in the offseason. This will be a situation to monitor over the offseason for sure.

 

Ryan Tannehill

Best Case: ATL starter

Living here in Nashville I am exposed to a lot of Titans news. I think whether by trade or by free agency, his time in Nashville is coming to a close. Tannehill at one point was a hero in the city for finally curing its quarterback woes since Steve McNair had left the city. After Arthur Smith took the job in Atlanta though, Tannehill has not been the same guy. This is why I believe that Atlanta is the perfect landing spot for Tannehill. While they did draft Desmond Ridder this past year, moving off of a 3rd round pick is not that hard to do. They could potentially draft someone early, bring in a vet or even both. If Tannehill does not land in Atlanta, I could see Washington as a potential landing spot.

 

Jimmy Garopolo

Best Case: WAS/TB starter

The 49ers have an abundance of quarterbacks at this point and this has to be the offseason that finally leads to Jimmy G finding a new home. He definitely will want to end up somewhere with the plan of competing, regardless of whether or not they bring in a young guy too. Which I do believe limits his potential landing spots. The Jets would also make sense here too but I believe they are more likely to end up with Rodgers, Carr, or Mike White as their quarterback when all is said and done. Both Washington and Tampa Bay seem like great fits for Jimmy G’s services with talented WR groups and teams ready to compete right now.

 

 

Baker Mayfield

Best Case: Bridge QB

The first three names listed I believe get starting jobs wherever they go. I believe Mayfield will likely end up in a place where they draft a QB and have Mayfield and the rookie compete for the starting job. Sean McVay has seemed to unlock some of the potential we have always known Mayfield to have. If he is to become a long term starter again, it is not likely with whatever team signs him this offseason. I suspect we see Mayfield sign a one year deal somewhere as a prove-it deal and then try to re-enter free agency in the 2024 offseason. 

 

Sam Darnold

Best Case: Bridge QB

I feel the same about the 3rd overall pick of the 2018 class as I do the 1st overall pick of that class (Baker Mayfield). Darnold will likely find a team drafting a QB and compete for the job and serve as a bridge guy for the upcoming QB. Darnold did beat out Mayfield in Carolina for the starting job there but I think after how Mayfield played with the Rams, Mayfield will be the higher priority for teams in the offseason.

 

 

Gardener Minshew

Best Case: Bridge QB

Such an easy player to root for, the personality, the swagger, the gunslinger mentality. There is a good chance that he just ends up a backup somewhere and a fantastic one at that, it would also make a lot of sense to have him play the role of bridge quarterback for a team. While capable of being a starter it does feel like the league has graded him as a high end backup. When he has come in for relief for the Eagles he has looked every bit the part of an NFL quarterback. I would imagine the Eagles will try to keep him if he doesn’t get any starting offers. 

 

Zach Wilson

Best Case: NO starter

Soon to be former Jet Zach Wilson has had a massive collapse in such a short period of time in New York. He does not inspire confidence as a bridge guy given the questions about leadership and his effect on a locker room. His best case is to find a team that really has no other good options. New Orleans makes a lot of sense here. The combination of Dalton and Winston has been rough this season and the Saints do not have their 1st round pick so are unlikely to be able to draft a guy. Zach Wilson possesses some huge upside that would make sense for a team like the Saints to go after. If he fails, then you just get a better draft pick in 2024 but if he succeeds then you look like a genius. The Saints are typically an aggressive organization as far as the moves they make are concerned so I think this makes a lot of sense from a fit perspective.

 

Taylor Heinicke

Best Case: Bridge QB

Heinicke is about the bottom of the barrel for the bridge guys I would feel comfortable starting next season as an NFL team. The dude competes hard and is at least a reasonable player in this league. If I had to guess, I imagine he is a backup somewhere next season most likely but definitely someone that could serve in the bridge role. He falls into a similar tier as Minshew but I believe that Minshew has a much higher ceiling. If Washington grabs someone like Jimmy G, Rodgers or Derek Carr this offseason I could see them trying to keep Heinicke around as a backup.

 

Getting an idea of how many starting spots there are available and how many potential replacements there are is a great way to get ahead in your dynasty leagues. Many of these veterans could be bought at a backup price over the next couple of months before free agency and the draft occur. Excellent way for a contending team to find a QB3 in a SuperFlex league for the additional depth. Next week we will attack the running back position. Happy trading everyone and good luck to those competing in fantasy finals this week!

Dynasty Stock Watch Week 16

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Dynasty Stock Watch Week 16

By Doug Harrelson

Before I even get started I just want to say, what a hell of a weekend of football we just got to watch. Starting off with an absolutely bananas comeback in the Vikings and Colts game, leading to a playoff atmosphere in Buffalo against the Dolphins, then Sunday we got the Jags and Raiders winning in walk-off fashion and capped it off with a great Sunday Night game between the Commanders and Giants. As a fan of the game it was easy to enjoy such a fantastic slate of games. For many fantasy teams however, this was the final week of their season. For a select few, the journey continues in chasing the ultimate goal of winning it all. Many dynasty leagues are moving away from trade deadlines so this is a spot to sell if you are out of it and buy if your competitors are already doing so. Let’s dive into whose stock is up and whose is down in this week’s Dynasty Stock Watch.

Stock UP

Quarterback: Gardener Minshew

As far as backup quarterbacks are concerned, this guy is a good one. The injury to Jalen Hurts could cause the Eagles to need him as they try to lock up the 1 see in the NFC playoff picture. Minshew has produced and played good football most of the time he has been on the field. If he starts he will also be stepping into a spot with an offense that has talent at every position group and has some elite playmakers. He will be almost a lock in SuperFlex leagues if Hurts is indeed out. There is also a chance that if they win this week and Hurts isn’t fully healthy yet that he plays next week in a game that may have nothing to play for as far as seeding is concerned. This whole situation is a minute by minute situation so keep your ear to the ground for any news on Hurts. 

Running Back: Zach Moss

Deon Jackson could also get an honorable mention here. It has been a long time since you could put Zach Moss in a starting lineup in any capacity but the time is finally here. I might use this window to get completely out of the Zach Moss business unless I was truly desperate for a play this week. A big group of RBs is coming into the league this offseason and there is only a certain number of seats that get enough volume to be fantasy relevant. I imagine that Moss will be left without a seat when the music stops. I want to try and make the deal now before this weekend for whatever I can get. I think there is a good chance the Colts offense stinks and/or it’s a committee and Moss gets between 6 and 9 PPR points and you become eliminated from your fantasy playoffs. 

Wide Receiver: Rashid Shaheed

It seems like every time I turn on a Saints game he gets at least one big play a game. The young WR seems to have a little juice in his game. He is not someone that I would be interested in playing in a matchup this season and more just someone that I would like to store on the end of my bench and see what happens. New Orleans seems to like him and he has some speed. The volume isn’t quite there yet but if he continues scoring long touchdowns, that should come in time. I am not a huge fan of starting boom bust players so I would likely hold until he has a bit of a volume uptick or a multi touchdown game next year and see if I can turn my waiver wire add into a 2nd round pick down the road. For now he is a grab and stash. 

Tight End: Chigoziem Okonkwo

I will confess, Okonwo was not someone on my draft board before the combine. After a stellar performance at the combine though, he quickly climbed my TE rankings.  Chig has mostly operated as a TE2 for the Titans behind Austin Hooper (more on him later) but the past 4 weeks, he has become the tight end more involved in the passing game. Over 5 targets in each of the last four games and a few long plays as well. Most tight ends do not have that in their bag of tricks. He is still young and tight ends take a while to fully develop into a role in the NFL so this stretch down the back half of his rookie year is extremely promising. Excellent buy for teams looking to rebuild, especially in TE premium leagues, his upside is through the roof.

Stock DOWN

Quarterback: Matt Ryan

We may be at the end of his days as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Ryan has had a tremendously successful NFL career but will always be remembered for a horrific loss in the Super Bowl against the Patriots and now the biggest blown lead in NFL history. I honestly would not be surprised if he hangs it up after this season. Similar to RB, the QB landscape is about to get a fresh group of young talent coming in. If you have Ryan I don’t think you can cut him yet due to the off chance of him being the starter to begin a season next season while a young guy is waiting for his moment but when counting how many starting QBs you have in your SuperFlex leagues next year, I would not put Ryan on that list.

Running Back: Jonathan Taylor

Not trying to bash the Colts but just calling it how I see it. The days of Taylor being the number 1 RB in dynasty appear to be at their end. I am hearing different names in the community for the new RB1 overall in dynasty including Bijan Robinson who has played exactly the same number of NFL snaps that I have(zero). Taylor has no lack of talent but he will not be available for championships this season and people are starting to realize that he was running a bit hot in 2021 and likely will have some amount of regression to the mean especially as the Colts appear poised for a rebuild at this stage. I actually think this is a decent time to buy Taylor if the owner is in a difficult spot with a championship on the line or seems frustrated with a disappointing 2022 campaign. Though it may be tough for them to want to take a loss on their investment at this point. 

Wide Receiver: Courtland Sutton

Sutton has been battling injuries down the later part of the season but recently even when healthy, it appears that Jeudy has slowly passed him as the receiver you want in Denver. The whole situation in Denver is a mess and they are likely going to have an interesting offseason. They are pretty much married to Russell Wilson unless they can find a partner to do a salary dump of that contract where Denver sends Wilson and picks to someone just to clear their books. The talent is there but I’m not sure if or when the situation in Denver will improve.

Tight End: Austin Hooper

I had mentioned Hooper earlier when discussing Okonkwo. The other side of Chig receiving the targets is that Hooper is slowly being used for mostly just blocking. I thought this spot in free agency would be perfect for him with a team in Tennessee that was desperate for pass catchers and Hooper having been a reliable one early in his career with the Falcons. Unfortunately it never came together for him in Cleveland or in Tennessee and we are slowly seeing the end of his fantasy value drip away. He will likely be available in dynasty waiver wires by the start of next season unless he lands in a place that really utilizes him fully and consistently. 

Congrats to those that are still going on when their fantasy season but always remember in dynasty that the other season is just beginning. Now is the time to start curating your roster for the offseason. Good luck in the post season everyone!

Dynasty Dilemma: Brock Purdy

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Dynasty Dilemma: Brock Purdy

By Doug Harrelson

I find myself looking at the results from this past week and things that we could not have seen coming. It started on Thursday with the most improbable win for Baker Mayfield and the Rams, and continued onward through Sunday. Perhaps one of the most surprising things was week 1 3rd string quarterback Brock Purdy facing off against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and absolutely smoking them. The greatest quarterback of all time getting completely dusted by a rookie that a casual fan would have not even known his name back in August. What are we doing with Purdy in our dynasty leagues now though is the question. Time to break down another dynasty dilemma. 

The biggest reason to buy might just be the game film we just watched. The Buccaneers defense is not a joke and Purdy looked calm, cool and collected back there as he methodically moved the ball on them. Some of it was simple stuff, evading the rush and checking it down to the running back. It does make that plan better with the running back is Christian McCaffrey but it was still impressive how quickly he was making the decisions. Purdy looked like a seasoned vet out on the field. Beyond just the mental aspect, Purdy showed some incredible accuracy on several throws and showed some mobility even picking up a rushing touchdown.

It is quite clear why the 49ers have been singing the praises of Purdy since he arrived. They have seen this guy in practice every week and were not worried about their chances when Jimmy Garoppolo was injured. It is also a system that has frequently gotten the best out of quarterbacks and if he can steal the starting job from Lance and/or Garoppolo next year, he could become a weekly starter in all your SuperFlex leagues that you acquired for quite cheap compared to the normal price of young starting QBs in dynasty. That window to buy will not stay open long if he becomes the guy, his price tag will become too much to trade for. 

Let’s just start with the elephant in the room. That quarterback room he is in is a crowded one. It may be difficult for him to become the long term starter for the 49ers. Garoppolo is likely to be gone but the 49ers invested quite heavily in Trey Lance this offseason. NFL teams do not like using multiple 1st round picks on a backup QB. If Lance is even on par with Purdy, he will be the starter. Perhaps there is a chance they move Purdy in the offseason to a QB needy team but how successful he would be in another offense is unknown at this point. As I have stated before, the 49ers offense is extremely QB friendly.

This game was also his first time with a game plan designed for him specifically going into a game. The Buccaneers had minimal tape and information to work with going into the game. Are we sure he will perform like this a few weeks from now when teams begin to pick out his strengths and take those things away from him? It is much easier to be the guy when the opponent is not prepared for you. Let’s see how he plays when some of these defenses start scheming stuff against him. 

Finally we have to consider pedigree. Quarterbacks selected outside of the 1st round have a truly abysmal hit rate. For every Tom Brady or Dak Prescott, there are a million Drew Lock’s and Davis Mills in the league, and those guys were taken much earlier than Purdy. Brock Purdy earned the title of Mr. Irrelevant after being the last player drafted in the NFL Draft this past spring. If his skill set was elite this would have never happened. At this time last year people were getting late 1st round picks for Davis Mills based on a small sample of production. Do not fall for the fool’s gold, sell now or soon as the season is over for all those that have passed the deadline. 

While as a fan of the game, I am loving to see what he is doing, I would use this window to flip him. I want at least a 2nd in a SuperFlex league to make the move though. If he has another big game or two, I may try to find a 1st for him. His 2023 outlook is murky at the very best and coupled with his draft capital does not inspire me for his long term outlook. I could be wrong here but I feel I would be happy to make a profit on a guy I likely only spent a late round flier on in my rookie draft or some amount of FAAB. Being able to turn that into some reasonable draft capital is a safe move even if it lacks the upside of holding onto him.