Darren Smith

Dynasty Dilemma: Rookie Pick 1.01

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Dynasty Dilemma: Rookie Pick 1.01

By Darren Smith (@FFBirdGang)

 

 

Bijan Robinson is the consensus 2023 1.01 in most Dynasty rookie drafts whether it’s a 1QB league or Superflex. You won’t find many mock drafts or rankings without the stud running back out of Texas leading the way. However, there is a case to be made that Bijan may not be the best choice for a 1st overall pick depending on your team’s structure.

 

The QB Market

Good Quarterbacks are becoming scarce. With retirement of veterans like Tom Brady, and soon to be Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, top end QBs that we used to rely on are hanging up the cleats. There are also players at the position that have just simply lost their touch, and maybe a starting job, like Carson Wentz and Jimmy Garappolo. Russell Wilson could even be thrown into that category. Some just can’t stay healthy like Matthew Stafford. A lot of Dynasty teams are starving for a solid QB2 to play in their SuperFlex spot.

The 2023 class has a wealth of Quarterback talent. CJ Stroud (OSU) leads the group in passing skill putting on a show in the NFL Combine, and Bryce Young (Alabama) has been referenced as a “mini Patrick Mahomes”. Anthony Richardson (Florida) put up record breaking stats in athleticism at the Combine, and Will Levis (Kentucky) has a cannon arm.

 

Rebuilding Teams

Most teams that own the 1.01 are struggling teams and are in the rebuilding process. The best way to rebuild a team in the Super Flex format is to start with adding QBs. Teams that get to championships likely have two top scoring QBs as they score the most points on average, and have a large spread of scoring between the top and bottom tier. QBs also typically have the longest shelf life in the NFL. Running back was one of the most lucrative in fantasy football. Teams are shifting away from using a singular running back in their backfield, commonly known as a “bellcow”, and instead rotate 3-4 RBs. This is due to high risk of injury at the position, giving running backs the least amount of shelf life for your dynasty teams.

While Bijan may go off in his rookie season, you likely don’t have the other pieces just to make a run at the title if you acquired the 1.01 from coming in last. With RB’s shelf life in Dynasty being so short, you’re only putting yourself in a bad spot drafting Bijan. Look what happened to guys like Jonathan Taylor and CEH, who were taken in 2020 rookie drafts over QB’s like Joe Burrow. JT was called a generational talent just like Bijan is now, had a great season, got hurt, and his value has declined. Burrow on the other hand has succeeded, and is now a top 4 pick in startup drafts. If your team got last, and that’s the reason you own the 1.01, Bijan Robinson should not be your pick and you should look at two options: trading back a few spots, or drafting a QB at the 1.01.

 

Trade Value

 

Currently the consensus dynasty RB1 ahead of every other RB, Bijan’s value can’t really get much higher than it already is. Basically you are drafting him at his maximum value. If he’s anything but spectacular, his value will lower. If by chance he gets injured, he will miss time, get a year older, and you’re left with declining value. If you are not ready to compete, you don’t want the risk of injury and a short shelf life on one of your top assets. On the flip side, these talented QB’s are not ranked very high compared to the rest of the NFL QBs yet. Most are not including them in the Top 12. This means that when one of these rookie QBs inevitably starts for a team and succeeds, their value is going shoot up. I think Stroud, Young, and Richardson all have the potential to be more valuable than Bijan in a short period of time. It may take as little as Bijan being drafted to a not-so-run-friendly team. With those QBs likely all starting in Week 1 of the NFL season, they could break out immediately.

With Bijan being so sought after, the 1.01 pick holds tremendous value. If you are a rebuilding team with the 1.01 and want to follow the advice of taking a QB, shop that pick! Trading back even just a few spots can result in getting your pick of QB while gaining more picks in the process to further your rebuild. I personally have seen a trade of the 1.02 and the 1.04 for the 1.01 because a dynasty manager wanted Bijan that bad. In that case, you get the QB of your choice at 1.02, and another elite prospect at 1.04 - possibly even another QB. You can even punt your rebuild to next year, which also has a great QB class, by acquiring multiple 2024 1sts for your 1.01. This pick can also be used to trade for a veteran QB. Since you’re rebuilding, you can feel comfortable with trading 1.01 for QB’s that are currently viewed as uncertain, but still elite, like Kyler Murray (ACL) and Lamar Jackson (Contract).

 

When Should You Take Bijan?

If you paid up for the 1.01 by trading, you're likely going after the top RB in this class. Your team is ready to compete if you have two surefire Top 12 QBs in dynasty and a solid supporting cast. In this case, by all means use your 1.01 and take a stud running back. While his value may not age as well as the QBs, Bijan may be good enough to take you to a championship if your team is ready.

If you don’t have a team that is ready, I highly recommend that you try and trade that pick back a few spots with some other picks/assets included and take one of these rookie QBs, or trade for a top end veteran QB. I’m fine with using the 1.01 to take a Quarterback to start your rebuild - specifically CJ Stroud, who I think is the best pure thrower coming out of this class. Yes, you can probably get more from trading, but you could get managers that don’t want to bite. Quarterbacks are so important to your Dynasty team, especially in a rebuild. With the market scarce, the QB talent in this class, and the value 1.01 holds, Bijan Robinson may not be the pick for you. He is an elite talent, but depending on your team’s situation, you shouldn’t blindly take him at the 1.01.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @FFBirdGang

Dynasty Weather Report: Kenyan Drake and the Raiders Backfield

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Dynasty Weather Report: Kenyan Drake and the Raiders Backfield

By Darren Smith

 

Welcome to the Dynasty Weather Report - a segment that provides you with reactions to breaking news and how players are affected in terms of Dynasty. Each player will be compared to a type of weather based on how they are affected by the news. For example, if a player has positive implications, they will be compared to sunny weather.

 

Today’s Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of Kenyan Drake being CUT.

News broke today that Kenyan Drake is expected to be cut from the Raiders. The 28 year old running back spent the 2021 season in Las Vegas backing up Josh Jacobs commanding some of the 3rd down and goal line work. Drake flashed at times and excelled in the passing game in the beginning of last season, but started to fall off in the second half and then fell victim to season ending injury. It seems like Josh McDaniels has seen enough, and the Raiders are ready to move on. What does this mean in terms of Dynasty?

 

Sunny Weather and Clear Skies

Josh Jacobs

The sun shines brightly for Josh Jacobs, who now has full reign of the backfield and could easily be an every down back. Jacobs' Dynasty value has been falling over the past few months with the news that Vegas would not be picking up his 5th year option. Jacobs could be elsewhere next season however he has every opportunity to boost his stock with a monster 2022 season. Without Drake, Jacobs should be more involved in the pass game, and also get some more work at the goal line. He’s a buy for contending teams at a cheap cost.

 

Thunder and Lighting

Zamir White

Lightning strikes fast and powerful, just like how Zamir White has an opportunity to have an immediate strong impact in the Raiders backfield. White was drafted 122nd overall in the 4th round out of Georgia. He impressed at the Combine with 4.40 speed and has a physical presence on the field, and the Raiders are excited to see what he can do as he scored the opening drive touchdown in the Preseason game against Miami. Expect White to fill in the “Kenyan Drake” role eventually - it’s Jacobs backfield now, but White could bring the thunder down the stretch of this season and is worth the stash in Dynasty Leagues.

 

Clouds and Heavy Rain

Kenyan Drake

Kenyan Drake feels the rain falling down today as he heard he was likely getting cut and even tweeted a goodbye to #RaiderNation. Drake could potentially get signed to a team sometime this season, but don’t expect the veteran to have much fantasy implications going forward. Kenyan will be added for depth and for a locker room presence and may see a few touches here and there, but will ultimately be a roster clogger. He can be dropped in all formats.

How do you feel about today’s Dynasty Weather Report? Let me know how you think the Raiders backfield is going to turn out this season by following @FFBirdGang and commenting on the linked tweet.

Dynasty Dilemma: Tee Higgins

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Dynasty Dilemma: Tee Higgins

By Darren Smith

 

The NFL draft is rapidly approaching. This year, there is a stacked wide receiver class that is about to enter the NFL. Some of these guys like Garrett Wilson, Treylon Burks, Drake London, Chris Olave, and Jameson Williams will become fantasy studs - but a few of them are bound to bust. Most of the time with 1st round draft picks, my strategy is to trade them for players that have already broken out to completely avoid a bust pick. One guy that I have been seeing get traded around for 1st round picks often (including myself) has been Bengals WR, Tee Higgins.

But what about Ja’Marr Chase? Isn’t he the WR1 on the Bengals? Yes, yes he is. In fact, he is the consensus WR #1 in most dynasty rankings. Due to Chase’s price being so high, value might be found in his counterpart. Let’s break down Tee Higgins to see if he should be a 

Dynasty Buy or Sell.

Situation

The Cincinnati Bengals are an up and coming team as they just had their first Super Bowl appearance since 1988. Quarterback Joe Burrow is a star in the making, throwing over 4,600 yards and 34 touchdowns in 2021. The Bengals have made a point in free agency to protect Burrow, which has been a main concern since he was drafted. With offensive line signings such as OT La’el Collins, OG Alex Cappa, and C Ted Karras, Burrow should feel more comfortable in the pocket and be able to have time to get the ball out quickly and accurately. This can only benefit his receivers. The Bengals offense is trending in the right direction, making Tee Higgins situation feel safe as we know they have a franchise QB that they are building around. 

Volume

Tee Higgins broke out his rookie season in 2020 scoring 194 fantasy points in PPR leagues with 108 targets and 67 receptions. These are pretty solid numbers for just a 21 year old rookie WR. Dynasty managers were comfortable with his position, until the Bengals took Ja’Marr Chase 5th overall in 2021. Being a WR2 on a team lowers value to fantasy managers as they believe the WR1 will take away volume and “steal targets” from them. This isn’t always the case. 

With Chase being added to the Bengals, Higgins' targets in 2021 actually increased from 2020, all while playing two less games due to minor injury. Chase is obviously a huge deep threat, which actually opens up targets underneath for Higgins to grab. From Week 12 on, Higgins had 50 targets, and Chase had less at 45.

Efficiency

As the 2021 season progressed, Higgins' efficiency only got better. From Week 12 forward, Higgins average depth of target was 12.57 yards. This is actually higher than Chase’s average depth of target, who is supposedly the one to stretch the field. Once Tee catches the ball, he gets down field quickly. Higgins’ average yards per catch after Week 12 was an astonishing 17.58 yards, compared to Chase’s 13.97. 

In Week 16, Higgins scored a whopping 43.4 points and had 13 targets with 12 receptions for 194 yards and two touchdowns. This gives you a glimpse of his ceiling even while being considered the WR2 on the team. To prove even further that Chase doesn’t have a huge effect on Higgins - Chase had 19.5 points on 125 yards in that same week. They can both have top WR numbers in the same game.

 

Snap Count

While Tee is efficient, he doesn’t see the field 100% of the time. Higgins snap count did increase throughout the 2021 season ranging from a mere 57% up to 87%. This shouldn’t be a huge red flag, but other top receivers can play close to 95% of the snaps. For now, we can not expect him to be an every down receiver.

Touchdowns

Touchdowns are a big part of scoring in fantasy football. Higgins scored 6 touchdowns in 2021, with only 4 of them coming in the Red Zone. You can’t expect Tee to be a Mike Evans type and be a touchdown machine - however he did have 15 targets in the Red Zone which ranks 39th overall in the NFL in 2021. This is yet again ahead of Ja’Marr Chase (44th), but still not a satisfying statistic. With the Bengals building a solid offense, I only see Red Zone opportunities increasing for all Bengals receivers, but we have to temper expectations with Joe Mixon taking a decent amount of carries near the goal line.

Dynasty Value

While there aren't too many reasons to sell Higgins based on his performance, his consensus ranking and dynasty value can make a case to sell. Higgins is listed as a top 12 receiver in most of the top viewed dynasty rankings, however he finished as the WR #24 in PPR leagues. This means you can sell Higgins for someone that historically scores more points than him, plus some additional pieces. For example, Keenan Allen outscored Higgins in 2021, but most managers would probably give him and a 2nd round rookie pick for Higgins. While I don’t think Tee is overvalued, if you need to expand your team at other positions he can be sold at a premium for some valuable pieces.

 

As you can see, Dynasty managers should not at all be concerned with Ja’Marr Chase taking away volume from Tee Higgins. He is a stand alone receiver on the Bengals that had higher efficiency numbers than Chase, and if anything should be considered the 1B to Chase’s 1A. The Bengals offense is set to explode yet again in 2022 with Burrow leading the helm. Higgins’ only pain points are with snap count and touchdowns, which could easily increase this season. While the price may be high (but fair), Higgins value will only increase from now on. Now is the time to buy Higgins. My money is where my mouth is - I traded 1.10 and a ‘23 1st for him last month, and I have seen him go for even higher than that in other leagues.

 

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @FFBirdGang

2022 1st Round Pick Comparisons

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2022 1st Round Pick Comparisons

By Darren Smith

 

With the NFL draft only a few weeks away, Dynasty managers are preparing for their upcoming rookie drafts. This time of year is when draft picks get traded for veteran players, as picks are at their highest value with rookie fever affecting just about everyone. While this might not be the most loaded draft class, there is still some huge talent that is about to enter the NFL. Dynasty managers, including myself, sometimes have trouble valuing their picks when they are trading them away, or when they are acquiring new picks. 

 

Everyone has different values, but I want to make some comparisons to current players so managers have a baseline to gauge the value of their picks. You don’t want to ship out your valuable 1st round picks for too little, but you also don’t want to overvalue them in trade offers to turn your leaguemate away from the trade. Here are some pick to player comparisons so you know how to value your picks when making trades. Each draft pick will have a comparable Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Quarterback. For the purpose of this article, I am assuming a Super Flex PPR league.

 

1.01 Comparable Values

DeAndre Swift - Swift is a solid top running back that has valuable receiving talent in PPR leagues.

Cooper Kupp - Kupp was the top WR in 2021, but is getting a bit older so will only have a few more seasons of elite production.

Dak Prescott - Versatile QB that is more valuable than any rookie QB in this draft. High powered, high scoring offense.

 

1.02 Comparable Values

Joe Mixon - With Joe Burrow leading the offense, Mixon will continue to have the opportunity to score touchdowns, similar to his 13 in 2021.

Devonte Adams - While he no longer has Rodgers throwing him the ball, Adams will continue to have elite production in Las Vegas for years to come.

Deshaun Watson - Deshaun would be worth the 1.01 with his new contract in Cleveland, but still could miss time by NFL suspension.

 

1.03 Comparable Values

Dalvin Cook - Outside of Breece Hall, there are no other RBs in this class that I’d rather have over Dalvin. However his age and injury history may catch up to him in the near future.

Jalen Waddle - With the addition of Tyreek Hill, Waddle will be poised to have an excellent season if Tua can get him the ball.

Russell Wilson - Moving to Denver may result in some growing pains under a new offense, but Wilson should continue his elite production throwing to Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.

 

1.04 Comparable Values

Nick Chubb - Being one of the most talented RBs in the NFL, Chubb is only held back by Kareem Hunt stealing touches.

Tee Higgins - I want anyone Joe Burrow is throwing the ball to. With Chase garnering the attention of the secondary, Higgins could explode in 2022.

Matthew Stafford - Now a superbowl winner and the addition of Allen Robinson, Stafford should remain a top QB option until retirement.

 

1.05 Comparable Values

Derrick Henry - The King returns in the 2022 season despite injury. At 28 years old and still producing incredible numbers, Henry is perfect for a “Win Now” dynasty team.

Diontae Johnson - With Big Ben out of the picture, Johnson will hopefully have a larger depth of target. The Steelers are in the market for a rookie QB in this draft.

Jalen Hurts - The Eagles have made moves to build around Hurts and should be adding some weapons and protection for him in this draft.

 

1.06 Comparable Values

David Montgomery -  With the Bears having one of the weakest WR cores in the NFL - Montgomery should be getting huge volume in 2022, and is shockingly only 24 years old.

Devonta Smith - The Eagles should be adding a WR in this draft, but Smith will remain Hurts’ main target in this offense.

Aaron Rodgers - Losing Adams is a huge blow, but the Packers should add a top receiver in this draft. Aaron is guaranteed to play at least two more seasons, and I expect him to remain a top 8 QB.

 

1.07 Comparable Values

Josh Jacobs -  The Raiders have been building their offense including the O-Line, so Jacobs should have his usual carries with some passing work mixed in.

Mike Evans - The return of Tom Brady is enormous for Red-Zone threat Mike Evans. Chris Godwin may not return until November, so Evans should be the focal point in this offense.

Tua Tagovailoa - The addition of Tyreek Hill is huge for Tua’s game. This is his year to prove that he has what it takes to be the franchise QB for Miami.

 

1.08 Comparable Values

Travis Etienne - Coming off foot surgery, Travis is poised to be a bell-cow in the Jaguars offense and should take most of James Robinson’s carries away.

Keenan Allen - One of the most underrated WRs in the NFL, Keenan Allen will remain as consistent as ever being Justin Herbert’s favorite target.

Kirk Cousins - Kirk signed a contract extension and should remain a fringe QB1 with elite receiver Justin Jefferson out wide.

 

1.09 Comparable Values

Ezekiel Elliot - Zeke showed signs of slowing down, but Jerry Jones remains confident that he will be on the field with large volume.

DeAndre Hopkins - DeAndre battled injury in 2021, but I am projecting he bounces back in a big way. Playing only 10 games, he still scored 8 TD’s with the best hands in the NFL.

Derek Carr - The addition of Adams is an invaluable asset to Carr’s passing game. Carr will have a huge jump in value if he gets his contract extension that has been in talks for months with the Raiders organization.

 

1.10 Comparable Values

Leonard Fournette - Coming off one of his most productive seasons ever, Tom Brady returning, and getting a contract extension all make Fournette a perfect RB for a “Win Now” team.

Elijah Moore - Moore had a great second half of his rookie season, however the Jets have shown interest in adding a top WR like Tyreek Hill which is concerning for Dynasty Managers expecting him to be one of the sole targets in New York.

Mac Jones - Jones didn’t have the flashiest rookie season, but it seems like New England wants him as their guy. We should give Mac another chance to shine in 2022.

 

1.11 Comparable Values

Elijah Mitchell - Mitchell exploded in the 49ers rushing attack in 2021, but given Kyle Shanahan’s history of a rotating carousel at the position, there are some longevity concerns.

Marquise Brown - Most managers aren’t high on Brown, and I’ve acquired him for 2nd round picks. With a healthy Lamar Jackson, Hollywood will remain his favorite target and is worth a 1st round pick for me.

Tom Brady - Not many expected the Goat to return, but here he is. At 44 years old and his weapons signed to new contracts, Brady is a top QB option until he decides to hand up the cleats.

 

1.12 Comparable Values

James Conner - Signed to a contract extension and with Chase Edmonds now in Miami, Connor should have a huge 2022 season and could repeat his insane rushing TD numbers (15).

JuJu Smith-Schuster - Kansas City traded away their top WR in Tyreek Hill, and JuJu is now catching passes from the best arm in the NFL.

Ryan Tannehill - While not the flashiest option, Tannehill is still a solid QB that you can add to your team for a cheap price.

 

If you have a contending team and are feeling confident about your shot at the title this season, but you have some 1st round picks in your back pocket, use these comparable values to add some depth to your team to make a run. If you are in the rebuilding stage but you still have a solid older veteran on your team, send an offer for a first round pick to further your rebuild. While everyone has different values, use this article as a baseline for your trades so you don’t get fleeced for your draft pick, and also don’t turn off another owner by sending a bad trade offer. Agree with me? Totally disagree on my values? Tweet your thoughts to me @FFBirdGang.

Bounce Back Buys: Akers, Etienne, and Dobbins

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Bounce Back Buys: Akers, Etienne, and Dobbins

By Darren Smith

 

The 2020 and 2021 draft classes were loaded with some promising young Running Backs. Unfortunately, the injury bug waits for no man. Three big names drafted in the early rounds the last two years had their seasons cut short and had Dynasty Managers asking questions on what to do with their high 1st round picks. Travis Etienne, JK Dobbins, and Cam Akers all missed almost the entirety of last season with serious injuries, but their outlook on the 2022 season is in question. I’m here to put your mind at ease, and these injuries have created huge BUY opportunities with these talented backs.

 

Cam Akers

Cam Akers was the first domino to fall in the laundry list of injuries that happened in the 2021 Preseason. Akers tore his Achilles during the Rams training camp, leaving his sophomore season in jeopardy. Cam was drafted 52nd overall in the 2020 draft and had a promising rookie season leaving managers hungry for more as his fantasy capital rose. When news was announced that Akers tore his Achilles, it broke the hearts of many managers as this injury has one of the highest impacts on future NFL careers based on history.

However, modern medicine has progressed, and Akers had a successful surgery and rehab as he was able to return in Week 18, and the Rams postseason. While his box score didn’t turn many heads, the truth was in the film. Akers looked explosive in the minimal carries he was given, and his speed remained the same. Most managers were pleasantly surprised as he didn’t regress as much as initially thought as it was pretty much a miracle he came back this season at all.

The Rams went on to win the Super Bowl as they went “All In” this season. The RB position will have vacancy after free agency with Sony Michel likely to part ways, and Darrell Henderson being on the last year of his contract. This paves a direct path to a bell-cow role for Akers as he has all off season to continue recovery. There aren't too many players that I am more excited to see come back to NFL action than Cam Akers. With managers panicked about the stigma of an Achilles injury, Akers is being shopped around in most leagues for a discount. While there is some doubt he will ever return to true form, the sheer volume and workload that he will carry into 2022 will be enough. Akers is a strong buy and should exceed all expectations when he fully recovers.

 

Travis Etienne

Travis Etienne missed his entire rookie campaign with a Lisfranc injury in his left foot. Drafted 25th overall in 2021 by Jacksonville and coming off a stellar season at Clemson, Etienne had huge buzz coming into last season. Dynasty managers had to spend high draft picks on Etienne in hopes of becoming a bell-cow right out the gate. Etienne was only in the 2nd week of Preseason when it was declared he would miss the year, so managers didn’t get any chance to get a gauge on his production, and ultimately his fantasy value.

To me, this injury can be spun in a positive way. The Jacksonville Jaguars were a complete mess the entire season with new head coach Urban Meyer, who thankfully was fired before the season ended. There were obvious growing pains with the rookie Quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, leaving the offense stagnant and in the bottom tier of the league. Etienne may have dodged a bullet in 2021 as things are looking positive for the upcoming season. He has progressed significantly since the initial injury, publicly stating “I definitely feel like as of now I'll be ready to go for training camp.” While injured, Travis has been studying the game and learning a new offense with his former Clemson teammate Lawrence. This dynamic duo should make some noise this year with some experience under their belts. Not to mention change in the staff, with the Jags hiring Super Bowl winner Doug Pederson. 

Travis was a top pick in rookie drafts across the board, and obviously his value declined after the injury. If you haven’t already, Etienne is a perfect buy candidate for the upcoming season. Although he is progressing well, season ending injuries are never taken lightly by managers and leave doubt as to whether they will ever return to true form. Based on his young age, modern medicine and training, and recovery of Lisfranc injuries, I have strong confidence that Etienne will come back just as explosive as his record-breaking days in Clemson. Go after some worried owners with late 1st round pick offers. If you currently own Etienne, don’t take any low ball offers - holding is the right move as his value will shoot up when Travis retakes the field.

 

JK Dobbins

The NFL and fantasy managers didn’t even get a chance to breathe before the next devastating injury to a young RB in Baltimore. Dobbins tore his ACL during the final Preseason game of the 2021 season and ruined some Redraft leagues seconds after the news broke. Poised for an excellent sophomore year, managers were devastated being so close to the start of the regular season. Dobbins finished as the RB 23 in PPR leagues during his rookie campaign, finishing the final game with 160 rushing yards and two touchdowns. 

Being the 55th pick in the 2020 draft, Dobbins was another asset with high rookie draft capital in dynasty leagues. Luckily, an ACL tear may take time to heal, but in recent years it has had little effect on the remainder of NFL players careers. The Ravens had incredibly bad luck in 2021 with significant injuries to most of their skill players, including QB Lamar Jackson. With all players returning after recovery this offseason, Dobbins comes back to the Number 1 rushing offense in the NFL. With promising pass catching abilities, Dobbins has all the potential in the world to be a top back.

Dobbins had successful surgery six months ago, and every piece of news since has said rehab is going as well as it could be. GM Eric Decosta publicly stated “we are very, very confident that he will come back and be the type of player that he was two years ago. This should give you no doubt that the 23 year old coming into this 3rd season will be heavily utilized to his potential. JK Dobbins is a buy at the right price. Given the lack of RB talent in the 2022 class, high draft picks can be traded to acquire Dobbins. He should be a strong hold if you already have him on your rosters.

 

Conclusion

While all three Running Backs have had devastating injuries that caused them to miss the majority of the 2021 season, all signs point to full recovery and full workloads in 2022. Don’t let injury news scare you into avoiding these backs. They are all buy candidates, and should be targeted in the early rounds of startups as I have seen them fall over some guys that just won’t have the same production. Akers, Etienne, and Dobbins will be an integral part in the future of NFL Running Backs. What do you think? Are you concerned about reinjury, volume, or something else? 

 

Let me know your thoughts on Twitter, @FFBirdGang.

Russell Wilson: The Newest Denver Bronco

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Russell Wilson: The Newest Denver Bronco

By Darren Smith

 

Breaking News - Russell Wilson has been traded to the Denver Broncos, pending a physical. In a surprise turn of events, Aaron Rodgers was signed back to the Green Bay Packers to a blockbuster 4 year deal for 200 million dollars, silencing all rumors that he would be traded to Denver. But the Broncos didn’t just have their eyes set on Aaron, as Adam Schefter reported that Denver’s GM George Paton initiated trade talks with Seattle at least two weeks ago. 

 

Trade Breakdown

Broncos Receive

  • Russell Wilson
  • 4th Round Pick

Seahawks Receive

  • QB Drew Lock
  • TE Noah Fant
  • DL Shelby Harris
  • Two 1st Round Picks
  • Two 2nd Round Picks
  • 5th Round Pick

This may seem like a steep price, but the Broncos have been searching tirelessly for their replacement of Peyton Manning, as they haven’t had much success at the position since. While details of the trade have yet to be completely worked out yet, we as Dynasty Managers can begin speculation as to how this affects all players fantasy values.

Credit: @McManusDesign

 

How This Trade Effects The Broncos

QB Russell Wilson obviously remains a top 12 QB in fantasy with his skillset. I’m not sure that the Broncos have as many weapons as the Seahawks, but they certainly don’t have less. I don’t see this trade to a new team affecting Wilson’s production and I expect it to remain the same. Wide Receivers Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton get the biggest bump up in fantasy value with this trade. Wilson’s passing abilities exceed any of the Broncos QB’s in the last 8 years or so - by a huge margin. These young talents have struggled with a stagnant offense and inaccurate passing in their short careers. Bringing in a deep threat like Wilson will increase Sutton and Jeudy’s targets, yards per catch, and reception totals. Both should be buy candidates if you have the capacity. WR Tim Patrick should also be noted as a bump up even at a WR3 position. Running Back Javonte Williams may even benefit in the run game with a more high powered offense, and Wilson’s ability to scramble. A surprising bump up that has flown under the radar so far is Tight End Albert Okwuebunam. With Noah Fant now in Seattle, Albert will be the TE 1 in Denver and will be looking to expand on his successful 2021 season.

 

How This Trade Effects The Seahawks

QB Drew Lock clearly wasn’t the answer in Denver, so I don’t see him being the answer in Seattle either. Most likely falling into a backup role, the Seahawks will most likely be using their newly acquired picks to take the chance on a draft pick in 2022, if not 2023. On paper, this looks bad for skill players in Seattle as they gear up for a rebuild. Wide Receiver Tyler Lockett will be turning 30 this season, and without the deep threat of Wilson’s arm I’m not sure his fantasy production will ever be as high as it was in the past few years. Lockett should be a sell if you are able to find a buyer. Wide Receiver DK Metcalf, however, has a huge buy opportunity. With the uncertainty of the QB position, owners who were already down on Metcalf after a mediocre season may have just given up on him. But, the 24 year old  is at the end of his rookie contract by the end of this season, and best case DK gets a significant contract on another team if the Seahawks decide not to move forward with him. At this discount and the chance at a new team next year, Metcalf is a huge buy. Seattle’s RB core may be the biggest loser on this team with the trade, as Running Back Chris Carson will be 28 and a free agent next year. Rashad Penny also gained some traction during the start of the offseason, as he had an explosive back half of the year, but is currently a Free Agent. Seattle talked about re-signing him, but with the new picks and an imminent rebuild, I don’t see them wanting to pay more to sign the 26 year old for another season. Tight End Noah Fant may not have a QB currently in Seattle, but my hopes are high for the 24 year old getting a fresh start. His value for me stays about the same as in Denver for now. 

 

With news of Aaron Rodgers resigning with Green Bay, and only hours later Russell Wilson being traded to Denver, this really has been a crazy day in the NFL. I think that the trade may work out for both sides, with Seattle getting some good pieces and picks they need for a rebuild, and Denver finally getting the QB they have wanted for so long. The Seahawks really did shake up the league with this trade, and I’m sure you are with me in saying that you are excited to see Mr. Unlimited in the blue and orange.