Cody Folden

Dynasty Dilemma: Kyren Williams

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Dynasty Dilemma: Kyren Williams

One of the biggest surprises of the season so far is the Los Angeles Rams. They went into Lumen Field in Seattle and punched the Seahawks in the mouth. They won in every category, including time of possession, total yards, first downs, and third-down efficiency. They were a well-oiled machine, and the running back room was a big reason why. With only 92 yards on the ground, Cam Akers, Kyren Williams, and the offensive line set the tone and let the young wide receivers be comfortable. In week two, they did not win the game but surprised many people by hanging with one of the Super Bowl favorites, the San Francisco 49ers. 

Every team in the NFL wants to have a balanced attack between the passing game and the rushing game. In week one, the Rams did just that. With 38 passing and 37 rushing attempts (not counting Matthew Stafford's rushes, which would make it 40), the Rams offensive scheme could do anything it wanted, and Seattle could not adjust to stop it. Week 2 was a little more pass-happy, but Williams could have been more productive. Matthew Stafford threw the ball 55 times with just 22 rushing attempts. Among those 22 rushing attempts, the only running back to have a carry was Kyren with 14. Kyren Williams has had the most significant impact based on his production. He also may be the guy to get on the waiver wire or trades in the coming weeks. Here is why:


Production -  

Cam Akers had more rushing attempts in week one with 22, but Kyren Williams was the more productive back. 15 carries for 52 yards and two touchdowns were surprising for many Cam Akers owners in redraft formats. It raised some eyebrows to the dynasty owners who have held Williams in deep bench or taxi formats. Williams's 3.5 yards per attempt was over double Akers's production (1.3 yards per attempt). This number may seem low, but three rushing attempts at 3.5 yards per attempt is a first down. 

In week two, Kyren Williams had all the rushing attempts for the running back room. He ended the game with 14 carries for 52 yards and one touchdown. Williams also had a great game receiving-wise, with six receptions for 48 yards and one touchdown. With a 3.7 yards per attempt in week two against what some people call the most formidable defense he will face this year. Performing this well against a tough defense is what the owners of Kyren Williams wanted to see. 

Snap Percentage - 

Kyren Williams also out-snapped Cam Akers by a significant margin. The official snap counts for the running backs were 53 snaps(65.43%) for Kyren Williams, 28 snaps(34.57%) for Cam Akers, and 0 for Ronnie Rivers. The playing time breakdown was significant in week one because every fantasy manager believed in the offseason that Akers was going to be the RB1 on this team, so to be on the field so for him to be on the field far less was a surprise. 

In week two, Cam Akers was a healthy scratch. The other active running backs for the game were Royce Freeman, who only played special teams, and Ronnie Rivers, who played only a handful of snaps and caught one pass for four yards. Williams has been the most efficient back and is the running back in the Rams backfield. In the first two games of the season, Kyren Williams is up to 129 snaps, 80.12% of all offensive plays. Snap percentage is something to keep an eye on in my eyes. Especially in the coming weeks if Akers stays inactive and McVay keeps up this massive percentage with the backups. With waiver pickups about to be in full swing and two weeks' worth of stats, Williams and a slew of his teammates were the top adds of the week for managers. What should we expect? Should we temper expectations?

 

Fools Gold - 

Some things are set in stone for the first few weeks of the NFL season, like a Minnesota Vikings disappointment or a division rival game having an unexpected outcome, like the Cleveland Browns upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals. Week one of the NFL season is also one that usually has the most surprises. The Los Angeles Rams, as a whole, were one of the biggest. That includes Kyren Williams's snap count and production on the field while barely sniffing the field last year. However, I like his yards per attempt at 3.5 yards and 3.7 in week two. Will this continue, or will Sean McVay get in his head and ruin another productive running back?

After two weeks of performance and production, all signs point upward for Kyren Williams. His stats for fantasy are great, and as I have and will state even more soon, I am worried about his coach getting in his way. He also has not broken a tackle in the first two weeks, so as defenses adjust and put more defenders into the "box" or by the line of scrimmage, can Williams keep up this productivity? 

 

 

In my Dynasty Dilemma in May about Cam Akers, I barely brought up Kyren Williams because I thought he was the running back after camp to be cut. That was a mistake. I did not believe Williams had a significant role on the team then. I put too much stock on the rookie Zach Evans and Ronnie Rivers. His role, although substantial, has yet to be clearly defined. In what I will call classic Sean McVay fashion, he doesn't know what to do with his running back room. 

With the inconsistencies from last year with Akers, injuries to players, and not getting a role in the backfield after returning until late in the year, Williams kept his head down and worked on becoming the lead back in LA. The lead-back role in Los Angeles has been by committee for the past two years. That has yet to be the case through the first two weeks of the 2023 season. Kyren Williams is the lead back now, and it may take an injury or surprising play by one of the rookies to change that.

Whether you are going for the gold this year in Dynasty or trying to rebuild, Kyren Williams is an asset. Some deeper leagues in Dynasty need more luxury to pick up WIlliams through the wavier wire. It may be time to strike while the iron is hot and see if the owner is willing to part ways with him. Use the Dynasty Pros Trade Calculator to see what is deemed a fair trade. If you learn anything from playing fantasy football in this day and age, it's that you know the running back position takes a lot of work to navigate. So try to get yourself as many as you can for as cheap as possible to have options. 

In redraft, many guys were picking up the wide receivers for the LA Rams in Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. These two have had significant games to start the year. While the receivers are always good options, getting a potential running back that could help you in a bye week or solidifying your RB2 role is beneficial. Last week, Kyren Williams was a cheap get on the waiver wire. After week two, we may see significant amounts of blind bids or free agent dollars on him. 

I will try to acquire Williams if you need help at the running back position. If you have Kyren Williams, I would hold. He can be an asset to your team for one of the running back slots, and his price tag might increase shortly. Be patient; we still have 12 to 13 weeks until the fantasy playoffs. If he does become the real deal and a must-start, someone might cave and give you an offer you can't refuse. Hold for a few more weeks and sell when his price is at its highest. We have seen crazier things happen, and in desperate times, people sell top assets to improve their team to make a run. 

He isn't a Todd Gurley type back. He is a complementary back who will see RB1 touches for this year. Sooner than later, he is going to be an afterthought to McVay. Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers got the same hype during their drafts, and the same thing is happening to Williams. Henderson was cut, and Akers is becoming an afterthought, being a healthy scratch and, if rumors are true, on the trade block. Williams will be getting the hype until one of the other rookies comes in and impresses. He then may fall victim to the Sean McVay trap. Kyren Williams is a great play this year, but you can never know the thought process or trust McVay until proven otherwise. Although the future might not be as clear as we would want, the opportunity to shine is there for Kyren Williams.

 

Sneaky Starts for Week 1 Lineups

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Sneaky Starts for Week 1 Lineups

We have finally made it—week 1 of the NFL season. The drafts are wrapping up, your teams are set, and redraft trades are in motion. The NFL season is here, and let's talk about some Sneaky Starts for week one. 

Josh Allen is a must-start… obviously. This article isn't about the obvious starters here. I will not tell you to start the Allen, as mentioned above, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Jefferson, or Josh Jacobs. Those guys are must and obvious starts. This article is about some guys that did not have the draft capital and may have question marks for year-long plays (I do dive into why they are as well) but for week one. It may win your matchup.

As we all know, starting in the win column in fantasy is significant; a close victory or a blowout, a win is a win. This article is here to help you with just that. Here is a player from every offensive position (and flex spot) that could win your matchup this week. 

QB - Sam Howell

There may not be more hype for a player after preseason than Sam Howell, and for good reason. Sam Howell produced points when the first team offense was on the field. His stats speak for themselves. In the two preseason games he played against the Browns, Ravens his stat lines are as follows: 

9/12 77 yards 1 TD

19/25 188 yards 2 TD

Howell secured his starting role and got to rest the third game so he would be healthy and ready for the regular season. So what? Why should you start him in your lineups this week, and why am I starting him over Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers? There are a few reasons.

Reason 1: Opponent

Washington is playing Arizona. After Zaven Collins and Budda Baker, the Arizona defense is in rough shape. While also trading away Isaiah Simmons for practically nothing, the Cardinals will not be very good this year. Only when Kyler Murray returns will the defense play less and not wear down. 

Reason 2: Player Personnel

Howell has two running backs, Brian Robinson for between the tackles and Antonio Gibson for gadget, outside, and screen game. The real depth is at wide receiver. Terry Mclaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel are all great options for a new quarterback. Mclaurin is a perfect outside receiver, Dotson the inside, and Samuel the Swiss army knife. Howell has the weapons in the backfield, out wide, and at the line of scrimmage with Cole Turner and Logan Thomas at tight end. 

Reason 3: Coach

Eric Bieniemy is now the offensive coordinator for the Commanders. His offenses have been dynamic in recent years as the offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs. Although Andy Reid gets all the credit for the Chiefs offense, which is why Bieniemy had to leave, he will be taken seriously as a head coaching candidate. Bieniemy has something to prove. Howell has good athleticism, and Bieniemy will put him in a position to win.

If you have Sam Howell in Superflex, Howell will be a great Superflex player all year. If you have Burrow as QB1 and Howell as your QB2, will Burrow be 100%? Howell may be the play week one if the Bengals play it safe, or if Burrow does play, he has an injury that reaggravates easily. 

RB - Jamaal Williams

Jamaal Williams was an obvious choice here. Williams brings charisma and professionalism to a backfield that needed a player like that. The reasons why you should start him are as follows:

Reason 1: Playing Time

We know Williams will be the starter for at least the first three games because of the suspension of Alvin Kamara. Frankly, after the first three weeks, I don't see him being that bad of an option either. Kamara's best years were when Mark Ingram and he split touches, and I feel Jamaal can do that for the Saints again. Williams is a must-start with this and the lingering injury to Kendre Miller.

Reason 2: Track Record

Jamaal Williams's track record as a viable running back option has always been good. In his four years in Green Bay and two years in Detroit, he has yet to have a season under 100 touches. In that six-year career as well, he has 30 touchdowns. I don't expect a repeat of last year's 17 touchdowns, but he will have a workload, especially in week one against the Titans. Williams will not be affected by a decent defense.

The zero-running-back truthers are loving this one. Williams is the epitome of the strategy. Jamaal Williams will be the bellcow in week 1 for the Saints, and he could easily play 80% of snaps, so he will get his chances to fill the stat sheet. 

WR - Courtland Sutton

The reasons are evident for Sutton, and we will get to those in a second, but Sutton gets on this list for where he is also going in drafts. I picked him up in drafts as early as round 11 to round 14, and for a WR2 in most weeks on his team, that is a value I will always hit the draft button for. Here are a few more reasons why: 

Reason 1: Injuries

The Denver Broncos are one of the teams that have been thwarted by the injury bug this preseason, especially at the wide receiver position. Jerry Jeudy will be questionable with his hamstring injury; they lost KJ Hamler and Tim Patrick, possibly forever. They also cut many of the guys who have had NFL reps, like Kendall Hinton. Purely based on who is there, Sutton is a good start candidate. 

Reason 2: Offensive Coaching

Sean Payton, whether you love or hate, knows how to coach, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. He had one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, Drew Brees, and had a WR1 in New Orleans for multiple years before injuries started playing a factor. That wide receiver was Michael Thomas. Based on reports, Payton has had Sutton watching old Thomas films. If that is the case, Sutton, a big-bodied wide receiver, might have a great year. 

Reason 3: Opponent

We have yet to determine what the Raiders will be this year. McDaniels's track record as a head coach could be better, and they have yet to do much to improve their defense this offseason. Their front seven is good, but must improve on the back end. Marcus Peters is good but injury-prone. We will see if he can produce like he once did. Peters gives up big plays, and no one in the Raiders' secondary can cover Sutton in week one. Nate Hobbs will try, but this is another case of the offense getting significantly worse, so how long will they be on the field? I expect a long time, which will stretch out the field for Sutton to eat up those slant routes. 

It's purely based on who is available for week 1 for the Broncos. Sutton is an excellent wide receiver. Especially in leagues, you have to start three in. Wide receivers are the cream of the crop now in fantasy; finding depth and playing the right ones is significant between winning and losing. Sutton helps you win week 1.

TE - Dalton Schultz

On a new team that is rebuilding, Dalton Schultz has been a sneaky dynasty tight-end pickup all year. A career with 211 receptions, 2122 yards, and 17 touchdowns is decent; this could be a breakout year for many reasons. Here is why I think he is a better play than some other high-tier guys in week 1: 

Reason 1: Security Blanket

Schultz has had a quiet offseason since he signed his deal. That is not good on a team with many new faces. We also all know the cliche that tight ends are a quarterback's security blanket. That holds with Schultz this year, especially with a rookie quarterback in CJ Stroud. Schultz is athletic and will be a mismatch on safeties and linebackers, and Stroud will need Schultz to dump it off when the play breaks down. Schultz is good enough to make opposing defenders miss when he needs to gain some extra yards.

Reason 2: Personnel

Dalton was this coaching staff's first "real" acquisition. The other backups are from the old regime and hold no bearing on Schultz being the TE1 on this team. That said, there is nothing at wide receiver that provides us to say that Schultz won't be the top pass catcher on this offense. I wrote a Dynasty Dilemma on Nico Collins on why he is a sell target for me. Behind Collins, the Texans have Robert Woods and many unproven guys in Tank Dell, John Metchie, Xavier Hutchinson, etc. Schultz has a real shot at being good all year, especially in week 1. 

After Robert Woods on this team, Dalton Schultz is the most tenured offensive weapon. I would expect a huge game from him in week one. I would start him over Darren Waller, George Kittle, and Kyle Pitts. Waller is also on a new team, but unlike Schultz, Waller has more competition with Daniel Bellinger. Especially here in week 1, we will see how the chemistry is between Jones and Waller. I anticipate the Schultz and Stroud connection to be stronger in week one. Kittle was hit-and-miss last year, primarily because of injury, and I don't see that changing. In addition, Brock Purdy has weapons in Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey to exploit, as well as Kittle. In Kyle Pitts, I want to see rookie year Pitts before he becomes an automatic start.

Houston does have a tough matchup against the Ravens, but if I'm the Ravens defensive coordinator, I'm not letting a tight end not named Travis Kelce beat me. That is a win every day of the week. Expect a big week one from Dalton Schultz.

Flex - WR Brandin Cooks

I like Mr. Reliable for a flex play this week. Another new team and the clear number 2 option, with the contract drama out of the way. Cooks is going to have a monster week one, and here is why:

Reason 1: Personnel

There are many mouths to feed on the Cowboys' offense. Ceedee Lamb is going to get plenty of volume, and so is Tony Pollard. They both offer different things for the Cowboys' offense that make it dynamic, but they both do very well to create and use the space they have with the revolving door around the tight end position and no real reliable options in the passing game. They will need to find someone who can bail out Dak Prescott. That, my friend, is Brandin Cooks. He takes the pressure off the Lamb, Pollard, and Prescott to always make a play.

Reason 2: Productivity

Brandin Cooks has been in the league longer than he has. He is already going into his 10th NFL season, but it feels like his 15th. The difference between him and Robert Woods or Allen Robinson is that Cooks still has his fastball. In his nine-year career, six have been 1000-yard seasons, and he has consistently produced, but no one has ever believed him to be an elite WR1. Like previous years, I expect some big and mediocre games in the season. This week will be significant because people need to remember how good Cooks can sometimes be.

Cooks will be the afterthought in the week one matchup against the Giants. New York should be more worried about stopping Tony Pollard and Ceedee Lamb, who have torched them in the past. Unlike other years, Lamb has no competition for his WR1 role like in the years with Amari Cooper, and has more reliable options than just him, like last year. Brandin Cooks is the forgotten weapon for the Cowboys, especially here in week 1. He will show the NFL why you need a game plan to stop him during week prep. 

There you have it. Your week 1 "sneaky starts." Although I will not be held liable for your losses if you start these guys, I do hope they prove to be the guys that win you your matchups!

Redrafts Most Overrated Players

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Redrafts Most Overrated Players

 

There are just some guys every year that disappoint and you end up saying: “I’m never drafting them again.” 2018 Le’Veon Bell is one that comes to mind for me, I still haven't forgiven him. Others would say, Kyle Pitts, Najee Harris, and Baker Mayfield. All for different reasons but also seasons we should have seen coming. I learned a lot in 2018 after getting burned, just because they have been good in the past or had good rookie seasons, does not mean year in and year out they will be good fantasy options. 

 

This article is just for that. An “overrated” player based on the situations they will have to deal with this year. By no means am I saying this is a no-draft list, this is just a recommendation on what you should be looking for to avoid the unforgivable seasons. For various reasons, mostly because of different formats, I excluded quarterbacks from this list. This also revolves more around redraft formats, and not dynasty fantasy leagues.  I hope this helps, so you don't have to learn the hard way! 

 

Davante Adams

Davante Adams is one of the clear answers here for me. At age 30, this is the first year he has an absolute no-question quarterback question mark. Will Jimmy Garoppolo start the season? Time will tell if he is healthy. If he doesn't they will begin with the most bridge quarterback in Brian Hoyer, and then move to rookie Aidan O’Connell. To say this is the most inexperience Adams will ever have at the quarterback position is an understatement. Hall of Famer to College QB to this. His average draft position (ADP) of 15 ranks him as WR6. This is too high for Adams this year with these other guys on the list:

 

Amon-ra St. Brown -18 (ADP)

Jaylen Waddle - 20

Garrett Wilson - 21

Tee Higgins - 27

 

I would take these 4 players over Adams this year and here is why. Amon-ra will be the top target in Detroit along with being with his quarterback for more than a training camp. Jaylen Waddle and Tee Higgins have proven there within their respective offenses to have good upside in fantasy and are on playoff-worthy teams. The obvious one here was Garrett Wilson. I would not take Davante Adams ahead of Garrett Wilson because of a few reasons. 1.) He has the quarterback Adams has had the most success with, and 2.) a younger versatile player in general. 

 

We will come back to wide receiver ADP later because I know there are a few more guys I would take above him but they will be used in another example. 

 

Bijan Robinson

This happens every year for redraft formats. The top few rookie running backs go a little earlier than they should because they are the new hot thing. Bijan Robinson is a Falcon. If there is one thing we know through the Arthur Smith coaching timeframe is he is definitely unpredictable. Drafting Kyle Pitts, the highest Tight End ever taken in the draft, has battled some injuries but isn't on the field when he was healthy his rookie year for as much as the fantasy community wanted him to be. Drafting Drake London in the first round the next year but having the Marcus Mariota fiasco and then starting a rookie in Desmond Ridder they grabbed in the 3rd round. Are you sensing a theme? Arthur Smith with his rookie weapons dont have a good track record in my opinion. They all can be good players and be good teammates for each other but fans and fantasy owners alike are getting impatient. 

 

Bijan Robinson is getting drafted as the RB3 and has an ADP of 8. Here are the guys right behind him I would take instead:

 

Jonathan Taylor - 9

Saquon Barkley - 10

Nick Chubb - 14

Derrick Henry - 17

 

In Dynasty, Bijan is the smash pick. In redraft, I would take any one of these other established running backs because you know what you’re going to get. Jonathan Taylor had a down year, the line should be improving and you should see higher totals from him especially because of his rookie quarterback. Saquon Barkley just got his “extension” and is with the Giants, they know how to use him in that offense. Chubb and Henry are the bell cows for their respective teams, we know they will get touches and eventually touchdowns. We have seen it every year.

 

We don't know what Bijan is going to do. I am sure he will dominate but with his current value try pivoting this year to something a little more safe. 

 

Evan Engram

Evan Engram got his extension from the Jaguars this off-season. Securing him for another 3 years the Jaguars finally have a comparable tight end as an option. We all remember his rookie year where he racked up 64 receptions, 722 yards, and 6 touchdowns and we thought Engram was then going to fly. Then it never really got any better. He's been a model of consistency around the 500-700 yard range his whole career. Even with injury, his average per reception stays the same. Here are some guys that I feel are better values behind Engram, who is projected at TE8 with an ADP of 89.

 

Pat Freiermuth -90 (https://dynastyprosfootball.com/dynasty-dilemma-pat-freiermuth/) 

David Njoku - 94

Dalton Schultz - 111

Chigozeim Okonkwo - 118

Dalton Kincaid - 120

 

We all know what tight end is in fantasy, it can be the barren wasteland and every league should be tight end premium to make the position far more valuable. Yet, this isn’t the case. So instead of knowing what you have with Engram, go for the even more consistent tight ends right behind him in Freiermuth (I also go into more detail in my Freiermuth Dynasty Dilemma; linked above) and Njoku. Schultz and Okonkwo, are more guys I would risk on more this year rather than Engram just based on “mouths to feed.” Engram will not be the number 2 option this year with the addition of Calvin Ridley this offseason. Christian Kirk and Travis Etienne will also be more involved in leaving Engram as the possible 3 or 4th option every week. Schultz will more than likely be the 2nd option in the Houston offense and Okonkwo will vary. Dalton Kincaid is the most interesting value because he may play slot. Engram has proven he can do that too but we all know sometimes that pesky thing called age gets in the way. There is always a shinier, newer model that someone will like. 

 

By no means am I not taking Evan Engram when available, especially if I need tight end help. I am however taking Freiermuth and Njoku before him. If I do take Engram, I am trying to grab one of the rookie tight ends later as well. 

 

Chris Olave

This one pains me. I am a firm believer in Olave’s skillset. Im sure Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) the creator of the Reception Perception, has a beautiful write-up and graphic on every route Olave can perform. He is a route technician and can destroy any zone coverage there is. Yet, we may need to pump the breaks on the sophomore player. Unlike Tee Higgins, Olave has only one year of work. His offense this year will also have more competition because another route technician in Michael Thomas will be back. Do I believe Thomas will go back to what he was in the past? Not necessarily, but we can't be naive in thinking that Olave is the number 1 guy. At wide receiver 12 and ADP of 29 there are some WR1s on teams I would much rather prefer:

 

Devonta Smith - 32

DK Metcalf - 33

Deebo Samuel - 37

Keenan Allen - 39

Amari Cooper - 41

 

Metcalf, Samuel, and Cooper are the clear favorites here. They have proven in past seasons that they can maintain their fantasy relevance under duress and had no quarterback. They know their role and are more consistent than Olave right now. Keenan Allen and Devonta Smith will be sharing receptions with other players more than the other 3 on the list but have proven time and again that they can also stay relevant. We can’t say that about Olave at this time. He has all the tools to do it, however.

 

CONCLUSION

I want to reiterate one more time. I don’t think these guys are bad players. The current values they have are just a little high. We all have a common goal of winning our leagues and having bragging rights. That means making the right choices and having an edge over your league mates. These players may possibly be the ones that affect how well you do this season. Let the team here at Dynasty Pros do the research for you. Read our articles and have more information for your upcoming drafts.

 

*All stats from early July ADP for ½ PPR on Sleeper*

Dynasty Dilemma: Tua Tagovailoa

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Dynasty Dilemma: Tua Tagovailoa

 

Tua Tagovailoa is another divisive player in the fantasy space right now. Some feel he should never play again because of his concussions sustained last year. Others say he is obligated to fulfill the contract he signed. Tua said he plays because he loves football, his locker room, and cares about his legacy. You can't fault him for that. 

 

His career stats are quite impressive for three years in the league with 34 starts, and  a 65.7% completion percentage, 8015 yards, 52 touchdowns and 23 interceptions, in real life football and fantasy he is a top 15 asset when healthy. Let’s dive into why you should buy Tua Tagovailoa first. 

 

REASON TO BUY

 

COACHING

Undoubtedly, having a coaching staff that believes in you makes a difference. Unlike the Trey Lance situation, the Dolphins have a plan and are backing the drafted player, and willing to adapt with Tagovailoa. Mike McDaniel, though unorthodox, knows how to use his 25-year-old quarterback. Besides the previous coaching staff in 2020 and 2021, McDaniel and upper management finally got the weapons the team needed. 

 

WEAPONS

The weapons that are moving the needle are Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tua has had his production increase every year and it helps when you get Waddle in the 2021 draft and then get Hill from a trade in 2022. They have dramatically helped Tua grow each year and their stats prove it. Tyreek Hill one year with the Dolphins: 119 receptions, 1710 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Jaylen Waddels two years: (2021) 104 receptions, 1015 yards, and 6 touchdowns, (2022) 75 receptions, 1356 yards, and 8 touchdowns. These two alone have shown Tagovailoa’s growth. 

 

CONSISTENCY

The stats for Tua Tagovailoa year after year is significant because of the constant progression we have seen from him. Just off yards alone he goes from:

 

2020 - 1814 yards, 9 games started, 10 games played. 181.4 yards per game.

2021 - 2653 yards, 12 games started, 13 games played. 204.1 yards per game.

2022 - 3548 yards, 13 games started and played averaging out to 272.9 yards per game. 

 

It looks the same for touchdowns and interceptions per season:

 

2020 - 11 touchdowns with 5 interceptions, making a 2.2 touchdown to interception ratio in 10 games.

2021 - 16 touchdowns with 10 interceptions, making a 1.6 touchdown to interception ratio in 13 games.

2022 - 25 touchdowns with 8 interceptions, making a 3.1 touchdown to interception ration in 13 games. 

 

Along with all of this, Tua is doing everything right this offseason. Gaining muscle, learning and improving his craft, and is saying all the right things. He is making some of his doubters into believers. The big outlier is injury.

 

 

 

RESON TO SELL

 

INJURIES

Tagovailoa has had a slew of injuries dating back to his college days and you can't deny that his size may be part of the issue. At 6-1, 217 pounds (before this offseason) in this modern NFL that is very hard to be playing any position, let alone the quarterback position under 230 pounds. In comparison to the other quarterbacks in the 2020 draft. He is the smallest. Joe Burrow, 6-4 220 pounds , Herbert 6-6, 236 pounds, Hurts 6-1, 231 pounds. Though not a significant increase in pounds, the height was the biggest concern. Hurts is the outlier with how much muscle mass he has but he is also the next injury prone one. 

 

His injuries include a dislocated hip that sidelined him for the rest of the season in 2019 at Alabama, A few finger fractures, one in 2018 and 2021, a rib fracture, sprains, and strains to the ankle, hands, and feet. All amounting in college to just knocking him out the rest of the game but back the next. In the NFL, he has had multiple week injuries far more often. (Dynasty Sharks) 

 

The most problematic ones though are the back-to-back concussions in 2022. We all saw the gruesome concussion in week 4 when his fingers curled up and he was stretchered off. It made the NFL look into the concussion protocol a little more and everyone thought his season was done until he came back, where he got another concussion. Diagnosed on Christmas, and during the Packers game, he got another one and remained out for the remainder of the season. Tagovailoa has never played a full season yet in his career and this is the ultimate concern for the young quarterback.

 

 

VERDICT

 

Tua Tagovailoa has the “it” factor to his game. What does “it” mean to me? It means he will do anything to will his team to a victory. In college, he comes in for Jalen Hurts at halftime of the national championship game to comeback and win against Georgia. 2 weeks after tightrope ankle surgery, charges an, albeit unsuccessful, but valiant comeback to LSU, the eventual national champions. He was finally showing it in the NFL last year, 8-3 going into week 13 and the Dolphins started to implode. Hard to tell if it was the rookie coaching staff, or players not executing but Tua didnt lose a game he played in last year until week 13. 

 

Unfortunately, his body just hasn’t held up for him so far. I do believe in his coaching staff and a healthy offseason that the Dolphins can be a decent team with Tua at the helm. As long as he stays healthy real life football will be happy. His completion percentage is what sticks out to me, as a rookie(2020) he had 9 starts with a completion percentage of 64.1. 2021 had 67.8, and 2022 64.8. He knows where he needs to put the ball but also needs to improve his pocket awareness to help with the injuries, but in due time, we will get to that.

 

In fantasy I come up with the same outcome. With the constant rise in production he is projecting to be a top 10 with top 5 fantasy stat potential. In redraft 1 QB leagues I will be targeting Tua often, because of what happened last year everyone will be worried and he will slip a little in rounds drafted. Take the second flex option first and then take Tua as your QB and have a stacked team in other positions.

 

Superflex leagues you can never have too many quarterbacks. They get the most points if you have 2 top 15 quarterbacks and if you have one and need another, find the Tua owner and use the Dynasty Pros Trade Calculator, this is a trade that I proposed that should put some perspective on how quarterbacks should be treated.

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Dallas Goedert’s year produced 168.7 in 12 games last year and 192 the year before where he played 15 games. Like Tua he cant stay healthy, but in fantasy, we all know tight end is a barren wasteland. If someone is willing to give up Tua, throw this trade in your league and see how it works out. For comparison, Tua’s best year of fantasy points (21.6 pts per game) was 280.92 in 13 games. Which was 15th in standard and PPR leagues for quarterbacks. So even when Goedert is healthy, the most average quarterback is still more valuable.

 

Use Goedert as a good trade piece to try to get your other QB you need for superflex leagues. With his top 10 upside he is a buy. If you are the Tua owner, I would consider this trade but possibly counter to something they wouldn't want to do to see how much they want him. In the end, they won't bite. If you own, hold on to him for at least another year and hope the injury bug has left him.

 

BUY (if you own HOLD)

Dynasty Dilemma: Pat Freiermuth

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Dynasty Dilemma: Pat Freiermuth

 

With the 55th pick in the 2021 draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Pat Freiermuth in the second round. The 6’5” 258-pounder out of Penn State had some excellent college tape. Over his 3 year career at Penn State, he had 92 receptions for 1185 yards and 16 touchdowns; that is even more impressive knowing the quarterback play at Penn St. was subpar. 

 

Pittsburgh selecting Freiermuth was the best fit for him. The organization has a strong history of identifying and developing talent that goes less regarded in the draft; examples includer, Heath Miller, Hines Ward, and Antonio Brown. Kyle Pitts was drafted 51 picks before Freiermuth by the Atlanta Falcons. Even though Freiermuth had similar stats in college, the Steelers were able to draft him in a position with less focus and scrutiny than Pitts. 

 

RESON TO BUY

     Freiermuth’s stats in his rookie season were 63 receptions for 732 yards and 2 touchdowns with Ben Roethlisberger. Although a Hall of Fame quarterback, Roethlisberger in his last year was a shell of himself. By the end of the season, Freiermuth found his legs as a rookie and started becoming Ben's security blanket. Roethlisberger would then retire, and in 2022, Freiermuth notched 60 receptions, 497 yards, and 7 touchdowns; catching passes from Mitchell Trubisky (5 games), and rookie Kenny Pickett (12 games).

 

Freiermuth is the clear #1 tight end on the Pittsburgh Steelers roster. The tight ends behind Freiermuth on the depth chart are Zach Gentry, Darnell Washington, Rodney Williams, and Connor Heyward. Heyward primarily plays fullback. Rodney WIlliams has 1 year of experience but has yet to enter a game and may land on the practice squad or be cut. Zach Gentry and Darnell Washington are the other players on the team that are vying for playing time. Washington had a lot of pre-draft hype and some draft experts thought he may be one of the first tight ends selected in the draft. However, he fell to the Steelers at the 93rd pick in the draft. Gentry is a better blocker at this point and is a seasoned veteran. 

 

 

REASON TO SELL

While Pat Freiermuth has missed only one game in his career, he has had three concussions in the NFL. The handling of Tua Tagavoila’s injuries last year highlighted how some head injuries are treated and has brought attention to when to allow players to return to the field. The NFL has made equipment changes to helmets that seem to be helping concussions happen less frequently.  The NFL has also changed many contact rules that help protect defenseless players. 

 

In addition, the NFL uses independent medical professionals to assess a player's readiness to return to the field. In all, the risk of head injuries is still there and with Friermuth having had 3 concussions, the likelihood of a recurrence is high.

 

In his first two seasons, Freiermuth has proven to be very consistent.  However, if Freiermuth wants to ascend from the Top 10 into the Top 5 of tight ends, he will have to gain more yards. He has great hands and is capable of getting open as he continues to perfect his craft with 2nd-year quarterback Kenny Pickett. 

 

VERDICT

As the DynastyProsFootball Superflex Dynasty Rankings say, Freiermuth is the 7th best tight end. In Sam Waldorf’s (DynastyProsFootball Contributor) rankings, he has Freiermuth at 9. I advise checking out both resources for all your ranking needs. 

 

Freiermuth’s current Average Draft Position (ADP) on Sleeper is 97. 

 

I am buying Freiermuth everywhere at his current ADP. If we look at the last two years of his fantasy production, his current ADP is undervaluing his impact. Comparing the tight ends being drafted ahead of Freiermuth, you are getting a discount for the number of fantasy points he produces. Freiermuth has 180 and 181 fantasy points averaging 180.5 points over the last two years. 

How are Tight Ends performing that are being drafted ahead of Pat Freiermuth?

 

Evan Engram, with an ADP of 90, is averaging 166.5 points per season. 

Darren Waller, with an ADP of 73, is averaging 130 points per season.

Dallas Goedert with an ADP of 63 is averaging 185.5 points per season.

Kyle Pitts with an ADP of 33 is averaging 152.5 fantasy points per season.

 

Based on this data, the only tight end performing better and being drafted ahead of Freiermuth is Dallas Goedert.  The other tight ends will cost more in draft capital but are not providing managers with the same point production.

 

Kyle Pitts and Darren Waller may possess the more big-play ability, but our current NFL landscape still cannot shake a security blanket that the tight-end position has provided over the years to quarterbacks. Pat Freiermuth is the security blanket for Kenny Pickett. 

 

In redraft formats, do not break the bank to draft George Kittle or Kyle Pitts in the 3rd round when you can get Freiermuth in the 10th. 

And, If you do not currently roster Freiermuth in dynasty formats, open up communication with that manager to make a deal.

If you can trade for Freiermuth by sending a 2nd-round and 3rd-round rookie picks, I advise smashing that deal. I would even go as far as increasing the offer to two 2nd-round rookie picks.

 

Pat Freiermuth is an undervalued commodity at the tight-end position. You should run, not walk, to acquire his fantasy production for your team right now!

BUY

Dynasty Dilemma: David Montgomery

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David Montgomery 3rd round pick in 2019 out of Iowa State. Is a model of consistency. Here is the breakdown per year of how he produced. In 2019, 889 yards, 6 TD, 2020 1070 yards 8TD, 2021 849 yards 7 TD, 2022 801 yards 5TD. This is production out of a position where you're usually scraping the barrel to find something. A starter for 3 of the 4 years. For every piece they brought in he beat out: Tarik Cohen, Ryan Nall, Lamar Miller, Damien WIlliams, Khalil Herbert, Darrynton Evans, and Tristen Ebner. With a new regime now in Chicago, Montgomery was never going to get resigned and ultimately that may be the end of Khalil Herbert as well in Chicago, only time will tell. Unlike Herbert though, Montgomery has the new landing spot in Detroit. With receiving upside and not many other running backs on the roster, expect him to be used early and often. As well as these other reasons below.

 

REASON TO BUY

The Detroit Lions runnings back on the roster after Montgomery are Jermar Jefferson, Craig Reynolds, Mohamed Ibrahim, and Jahmyr Gibbs. With really Gibbs as his only competition for snaps Montgomery should fill the role of Jamaal WIlliams and do it more efficiently on a play-by-play basis. He may not be able to get the touchdown total as high as Williams did last year but it should be made up for the yardage he gains.

Another huge reason to buy Montgomery is he has only missed 5 games in his career due to injury. His body heals fast and has avoided the major injuries that will knock you out for over a year. The last point I will make is he has 915 rushes in his career and 155 receptions. He is a model of consistency that shouldn't hinder you at all from getting him from impatient Monty owners. Should you overpay?

 

 

REASON TO SELL

For some of the reasons above, this is exactly why you should sell Montgomery. His model of consistency averages out to 902.25 yards per year and 6.5 touchdowns per year (rushing stats only). While this is good, Montgomery almost always gets overdrafted in redraft and dynasty formats because many think he can make the next step. At 25 years old he is in the prime of his career and even in the new landing spot, he has competition.

As a member of the don't draft Monty fan club because I can always talk myself out of him, it is unfair because I didn’t like his inconsistency in fantasy. Some games he can put up 30 points and then end up with 3 games in a row with 5 or 6 points. I need more from the running back position than that. So I usually go in a different direction.

 

 

VERDICT

Bob Miller’s Dynasty Dilemma (please link) on Jahmyr Gibbs gives us reasons to buy and sell him but the question is will Gibbs get the Deandre Swift treatment and not get used, or will they buy in and let him be the back he is, a receiving and outside runner that is in open space would dominate. If anything from last year tells us anything, Montgomery is going to be heavily involved. Gibbs being a receiving threat does not scare me off of Montgomery for the fact of the 155 receptions David has already. I think they will be patient with Gibbs, he will get his time but Montgomery will start and finish most drives, in my opinion, this year.

In redraft leagues he is an easy pickup for me, I’m willing to get hurt again. In Dynasty, he is probably a hold because you don’t want to sell him for cheap because of Gibbs but you can wait and see what the backfield looks like during the season to see when to sell him if you really want to. David Montgomery is a buy.

BUY