Brendon Booth

Dynasty Dilemma: Rashee Rice

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Dynasty Dilemma: Rashee Rice

 

I'm going to begin by stating that I, Brendon Booth, H A T E the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, I don't say that because I've been a Raiders fan for over 40 years, although I do for that reason, as well. It's simply this: as a fantasy football analyst, I hate the fact that the Chiefs have rostered seven wide receivers and nobody knows what to do with them. I say this as an owner of Kadarius Toney. I say this as an owner of Justyn Ross. I say this as a 30% shareholder of Deneric Prince who was squeezed off of the 53-man roster to make room for KC's 7th WR. And I say this as an NON-owner of Rashee Rice, in spite of the fact that I would like to have him on one or more of my rosters.

Rice was a stud at pass-heavy SMU. He was drafted by the Chiefs in the 2nd round of the 2023 draft and you would think that draft capital would quickly earn him a heavy role in the Chiefs offense. There is just too much competition in that WR room to get a great feel of how he is going to be deployed. If he is an integral piece, earning a high enough target share from Patrick Mahomes to be relevant in fantasy, then he could be a nice waiver wire pick-up for you, if he's available. This is our dynasty dilemma. Let's dig a little deeper on this rookie, though, and see if we can figure something out together.

As I said, Rice holds 2nd round draft capital. While one of the prime indicators of fantasy success for wide receivers is being drafted in the first round, there are plenty of 2nd rounders that hold significant value. Christian Watson, George Pickens, and the Chiefs' own Skyy Moore were all 2nd rounders in 2022. 2021 saw Elijah and Rondale Moore both go early on Day 2. In 2020, the 2nd round WRs included Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Jr., and personal favorite Van Jefferson. While all of these guys vary in their potential offerings, you can see how 2nd rounders can be viable assets.

On the field, Rice presents some true upside. While his 4.51 combine 40-time isn't ideal, Rice offers elite level explosiveness with a 1.49 10-yard split placing him in the 92nd percentile, and a 41-inch vertical jump, good for a 96th percentile spot. In basketball, they call that "jumping out of the building." His 6'1", 204 lb frame makes him big enough to be a contested catch target and a red-zone threat as he plays even bigger than his stature. Rice is more than capable as a route-runner in short and intermediate situations but is even better on deep throws, and he is good at creating yards after the catch. He also shared college targets with fellow SMU teammates, now in the NFL, Danny Gray of the 49ers, and Philadelphia Eagles TE Grant Calcaterra.

Rashee Rice offers the size, skillset, athletic profile, and college pedigree that you want, and the draft capital of at least 6 WRs in the top 48 of dynasty rankings. His current DynastyPros ranking of 53 just screams "SLEEPER."

Did I mention that I hate the Chiefs' WR situation? Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore are poised just under TE Travis Kelce as starting targets for Patrick Mahomes. Justin Watson, Justyn Ross, Richie James, and Rice round out the receiving corps, with Rice listed on the depth chart as the backup Z, or flanker, to Toney. Now, Toney has a pretty sketchy injury history which could lead to the perfect opportunity for Rice to slide into the starting mix, but the Chiefs have stated that Rice, along with Ross will "start out as 'package' players." So IF there's an injury to Toney and Rice graduates to the flanker role, there could be some value there.

Depth chart position isn't the only thing working against Rice. Let's take a second and look at his teammate Skyy Moore and HIS situation as a rookie in Andy Reid's offense. Moore, again, also a 2nd round pick was limited to the point of irrelevance as a rookie. Moore is slightly smaller and a little bit faster than Rice, and is more suited to the Y or slot role, and he earned lower than a 30% target share as a rookie, in 16 games. He had 22 catches for 250 yards, had an average target depth of 7.7 yards, and earned just 5.7% of team air yards. Contrast that with fellow rookie George Pickens who, albeit in a different role, had one-third the drop rate of Moore and almost four times the receptions on three times the targets, an aDOT of 14.7 yards, and 27.4% of team air yards. If the Chiefs believe the best thing for Rice is to slowly acclimate, his only spot in your roster is on the taxi squad.

The final drawback to Rice hasn't anything to do with situation or ability, it's in his attitude. He has been reported as "nonchalant" in his intent and "takes plays off." He also hasn't shown a desire to increase his commitment to detail as a route runner and chooses to "get by" on size and physical abilities rather than technique. Reports are that he ran a very limited route-tree in college and a poor attitude means that he could be in trouble if he is supposed to improve in the NFL. If all Rice wants to do is run downfield and catch jump balls for glory, there is a place for that, but it won't equate to much production.

After investigation, I might be better off, at this point, not owning any shares of Rashee Rice, and you may be, too. That means, however, that his value is at an all-time low. If his usage rate mirrors Skyy Moore's as a rookie, Rice will definitely be worth a stash if you have a taxi squad spot open. His value is that of a handcuff running back or a mid to late 2nd round rookie pick in 2024 or 2025. If you are trading with a Rice owner, don't be afraid to add him to the receiving side in exchange for a 3rd rounder or a Jordan Mason type. If waiting on his potential, which he has plenty of, is good enough for Andy Reid, it should be good enough for us.

 

Devy Battle: Huskies Heavies, Rome Odunze vs. Jalen McMillan

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Devy Battle: Huskies Heavies, Rome Odunze vs. Jalen McMillan

Welcome to Devy Battle: Huskies Heavies. This is a recurring series in which we pit two college players against each other and advise you on the strategy necessary to acquire each. At the end, we'll help you choose which player to prioritize, but by all means, if you can get both, do that.

An NCAA football program can have much bigger problems than which of your 2024 NFL draft locks at wide receiver should your 2024 1st round quarterback prioritize in the passing game. Welp. That's the conundrum that the University of Washington Huskies football program and star quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. are dealing with.

The Huskies receiving corps is led by Rome Odunze, Junior wide receiver who was a 4-star recruit from Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas, Nevada, and Jalen McMillan, another 4-star recruit from San Joaquin Memorial High School in Fresno, California. Much like the Ohio State Buckeyes with Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, both of whom are competing for touches, the Huskies are in the enviable position of trotting two of the 10 best college receivers onto the field every Saturday. This puts US in the UNENVIABLE position of figuring out where to devote our energy in Devy and College fantasy leagues.

That's why we're here. We want you to be primed to make the best decision. Will it be Odunze? Will it be McMillan? The answer may surprise you. LET'S GET IT ON!

 

 

If there is an edge to be found here, I haven't found it. Production differences are negligible with no advantage to either. Odunze is  little taller, McMillan is a little faster. This matchup reminds me of Harrison/Egbuka in almost every way.

 

The Case for Rome Odunze

I want to build a prototypical NFL WR prospect. He needs to produce. I'm looking for speed below a 4.6 second 40-yard dash. Odunze ran a reported 4.45. I want a minimum size of 175 pounds or over 6 feet in height. Odunze clears both of those easy. Lastly, I want a receiver to have competition on his team from other NFL projectable receivers. Odunze has McMillan. The only two places where Odunze falls short is in breakout age and as an early declare. He didn't breakout until he was 20 years old, and that may have been as a Sophomore, but it was his 3rd year in the program, after red-shirting. He also will be declaring after 4 years, not 3.

Those profile boxes left unchecked matter a little, but not significantly. Sometimes, as is the case with both Odunze and McMillan, they can be subject to the system and it's not a matter of talent. The point is, Odunze's profile is good.

On the field, where it matters most, Odunze is a very polished receiver. He is good against press coverage and wins at the line of scrimmage with explosive acceleration and violent hands. He has enough wiggle to separate before the catch and to evade tacklers and create YAC. He's also a legitimate deep threat with good ball-tracking skills, uses his hands well, and is acrobatic. There's a lot to like, and in 2022 he averaged 15.3 yards per catch.

In Devy

As far as how you should strategize your draft, Odunze doesn't rise to the level of his Ohio State counterparts, but he is still a nice 2nd round target. If MHJ or Egbuka are on the board, but if not, look for Odunze. His Fantrax ADP of 15 leaves room for volatility as I've seen him taken with the 21st pick and the 26th pick which hints at mild value.

The time to trade for him is now, as another huge year and high draft capital next Summer will put him in a range similar to where Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison are right now.

 

The Case for Jalen McMillan

Let's now take a look at how McMillan fits into my profile. Speed? Check. Size? Check. Breakout age? Same. Declare? Same. Competition? Same. It's almost like we're dealing with clones. Where Odunze has the edge, barely, is in his size and production. McMillan, however, is faster. He also has a knack for route running and using a DB's technique against him to create space. He's a human joystick-type with quick feet and stop-start ability. He reaches his top speed quickly and smoothly coming out of breaks and uses his hands well to catch. He can jump and has long arms for his size so he can high-point in contested catch situations.

To contrast the two teammates, they both can do a lot of the same things, but I think McMillan has just a few more tools in his toolbox. That doesn't necessarily translate to value, it just gilds his profile a little bit and moves him closer to Odunze, in my eyes as opposed to consensus.

In Devy

McMillan is an incredible value. He has the potential to overtake Odunze statistically, but he doesn't have the ADP or cache. A firm late-2nd round ADP and creating some 3rd round value allow you to take other players earlier and not sacrifice production. He's in the perfect position to allow you to target the elite QBs and RBs first, and take him later.

If you own him, hold. If you can trade for him, do it now.

 

WINNER

Push. You're going to get production from both. They're ridiculously even. If you have a later round pick in your Devy draft, don't be afraid to take them both as your WRs 1 and 2. If you have an early pick in the first round, take an elite QB, an elite RB, Marvin Harrison, Jr. or Emeka Egbuka in the 1st and then be pleased if Odunze falls or McMillan is available. In our DynastyPros C2C Writers League, I took Odunze at 2.09 and McMillan went at 3.10.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Trey Lance

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Dynasty Dilemma: Trey Lance (Updated)

UPDATE: Per Adam Schefter, Lance was traded to the Dallas Cowboys. Schefter’s report was released at 4:22 pm on 8/25/2022, about 3 and a half hours before this article was posted. It is important to note that the trade does not change the following analysis. The only change is the potential for Lance to start if there is an injury to Dak Prescott. You may proceed as outlined.

The year is 2000. A young man walks into a fortune teller’s shop on his town’s main street. Not in the downtown area, but on the edge of town. The man sits down at the crystal ball and the fortune teller lays out the wildest tale. She tells the young man, an expectant father that he will have a son. That son will grow up to be a highly coveted quarterback. That quarterback will earn a starting position for his national champion college team as a sophomore, lead that team to a 16-0 record and another national championship, and throw 28 touchdowns that year without throwing an interception in 287 attempts. The boy would also rush for 1100 yards that season and add 14 more touchdowns. The young man is stunned.

The fortune teller goes on to tell the man that his son will enter the 2021 NFL Draft at the age of 20, and be picked by the San Francisco 49ers with the 3rd overall pick, after trading 2 first round picks and 2 other picks to move up and draft their guy. He will eventually grow into a man standing 6’4″, weighing 225 pounds, and running a 4.5 second 40-yard dash. Now the young father-to-be is bewildered. His son is going to be a superstar!

 

 

6 months earlier, a different expectant father goes into a different fortune teller’s shop. The fortune teller explains that HIS son is going to be 6’1″, run a 4.85 40, have an unheralded college career on a normal 4-year track, and be passed on in HIS draft 261 times, before the 49ers draft him to be a backup, maybe, and he’ll earn the nickname given the last pick, “Mr. Irrelevant.” This young father is also bewildered. He wanted a superstar. Now he’s convinced he’s got a palooka.

 

 

Neither fortune teller would see that 23 years later, the palooka would be announced as the starting QB for the 49ers, and the shine would be off of the superstar. The 49ers would be scrambling to figure out what to do with the product of their huge investment. YOU are also wondering what to do with that huge investment.

 

We have been in a Dynasty League holding pattern with Lance for, going on, 3 seasons. There is no new statistical analysis that can change that. Upside is the only argument to be made in Lance’s favor. It’s still a good one.

None of the events of the last three seasons have changed Lance’s POTENTIAL. He’s still the physical specimen that he was before, as noted above. He still has the same arm strength, the same foot speed and elusiveness, and the same brain that Kyle Shanahan dubbed highly intelligent.

He’s extremely intelligent. He knows how to handle situations. He knows how to carry himself. The guy that I see on tape that I tried to describe that I see such a natural quarterback, such a smart player.

Let’s look at Jordan Love, for an example. He is the same size as Lance, but as slow as Purdy. Love was drafted the year before Lance, and didn’t see the field as a rookie. He played sparingly in his next two seasons and has only seen regular season game action 10 times for the Packers. By every indication, however, he’s ready to start at age 24. He’ll turn 25 mid-season and Lance will be 25 just short of 2 years from now.

Lance has plenty of time to assume his final form. With his draft profile hampered by injury and team situation, he has an opportunity to add on to the improvements he’s made with his technique. He just needs reps. He’ll find them wherever he is because the NFL isn’t going to give up on him, and neither should you.

Buy low, sell high is the Dynasty mantra. This will be the lowest ever point for Lance’s value, until he retires.

 

 

Again, there is very little statistical basis to justify selling Lance. You could point to injury history or throwing interceptions against the Raiders in his first 2023 pre-season game. What it boils down to is that he doesn’t have a job, at the moment. He will be, for the time being, a roster suck. He won’t be startable in your lineup.

 

 

Rostered: depending on your league environment, Lance is a hold. If you have the roster depth to absorb a zero production wait-n’-see, wait it out. At this point, nobody wants him. Do not sell low.

Trades: Throw out offers, again if you can absorb the lack of production. If you can’t handle the roster spot, create a dynastyprosfootball.com Trey Lance alert and stay on top of the player news to scoop him off waivers as soon as he gets another opportunity.

Startup and Redraft: Avoid

 

Devy Battle: Bitter Buckeyes, Marvin Harrison, Jr. vs. Emeka Egbuka

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marvin-harrison-jr-explodes-to-put-ohio-state-up-big-in-peach-bowl-sports-world-sounds-off
Michigan v Ohio State

Devy Battle: Bitter Buckeyes, Marvin Harrison, Jr. vs. Emeka Egbuka

Welcome to the first Devy Battle. This is a recurring series in which we pit two college players against each other and advise you on the strategy necessary to acquire each. At the end, we'll help you choose which player to prioritize, but by all means, if you can get both, do that.

Throughout the decades, certain schools can show themselves to be adept at production of high-level players from different position groups. For example, in the 80's and 90's, the University of Miami was referred to as "WR U" after producing a high concentration of NFL wide receivers including Michael Irvin, Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss, and Andre Johnson, among many others. Cal spent some time as "RB U" thanks to Marshawn Lynch, Russell White, JJ Arrington, CJ Anderson, Shane Vereen, Jahvid Best, and Justin Forsett, all of whom showed off their various talents in the NFL over a 20 year span. Currently, Iowa is considered "TE U," and Penn State and Notre Dame have traditionally been known as schools that produce top linebackers. With apologies to Alabama, LSU, and the historicity down in Miami, the newest incarnation of "WR U" is Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have spent the last 6 years producing some of the best receiving talent in the game. Terry McLaurin and Parris Campbell got the ball rolling, only to be followed by Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Jameson Williams of the 2022 rookie class, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2023. I count Williams because he was originally a Buckeye before seeing the writing on the wall in 2021 and transferring to Alabama. The 2021 Freshman class included the subjects of our Devy Battle today, Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, both of whom should enter the 2024 NFL Draft. What Williams could, presumably, foresee was a packed WR room and that he wasn't going to be the alpha in said room.

Ohio State has a combination of an incredible recruiting pedigree that makes it an attractive school to attend and an elite WR coach in former NFL wide receiver Brian Hartline, who is cementing his name as the best in the business at coaching up future NFLers. The two elements add up to create an environment where receivers thrive, and NFL teams have noticed. None of the players taken in the 2022 or 2023 drafts that started their careers as Buckeye WRs were drafted later than the first round. That trend should hold true for Harrison, Jr. and Egbuka, as those two are considered among the top 5 receivers available and are ranked #1 and #2 in our DynastyPros Devy WR Rankings.

Now, consensus has Harrison, Jr., son of NFL Hall-of-Famer Marvin Harrison, as the #1 WR in the class. He is the presumptive leader in the Buckeyes WR room and should be the first WR taken overall next year. That doesn't mean that Egbuka is a slouch, nor that you should focus on MHJ in your Devy draft. We're here to break down this matchup of the two receivers at the same school, so...LET'S GET IT ON!

Tale of the Tape

Marvin Harrison, Jr.
NAME
Emeka Egbuka

21
AGE
20.75

6'4"
HEIGHT
6'1"

205
WEIGHT
206

88
CATCHES
83

1,402
YARDS
1,342

17
TDs
10

X/Split End
NFL ARCHETYPE
Z/Flanker

4.41/81%
REPORTED 40 TIME
4.3/97%

There's not much that can be gleaned here. At 6'4", MHJ is kind of a freak. Egbuka is a little thicker. Their stats are eerily similar, although MHJ has turned a higher percentage of his catches into TDs. While MHJ was primarily used as a Z in 2022, he certainly has the size, agility, and ability to break press-coverage to play the X in the NFL. Similarly, Egbuka ran most out of the slot, but his speed, thickness, and rushing touches in 2022 make him a Z in the NFL.

 

 

The Case for Marvin Harrison, Jr.

When it comes to projecting MHJ, the primary arguments boil down to height and pedigree. Digging deep into the profile hints at an even more promising future. Harrison, Jr. has produced a 135.5 QB Rating when targeted. His hands at the catch point are absolutely elite. He is adept at short routes and has top of the class skills on intermediate and deep routes run. He has been called the best player in college football and is projected to be taken in the top 10 of the 2024 draft. Fantrax has MHJ projected to score 22.3 ppg in 2023. His NFL comp is faster, more agile Michael Thomas.

In Devy

Plan on drafting Harrison in the first 5 picks in your Devy startup. Those first picks seem to come down to a preference of position. In a QB heavy draft, Harrison likely won't last past the 5th pick. If QBs aren't the focus, he'll likely be the 1st or second pick off the board, as he was in our DynastyPros Campus2Canton startup.

If you're looking to trade for him in Devy leagues it's going to take a major offer. According to the DynastyPros Trade Calculator, Harrison's value is prohibitive. If you have a 24 1st and a spare Patrick Mahomes to throw around, you might get MHJ.

 

 

The Case for Emeka Egbuka

While shorter than Harrison, Egbuka has a higher BMI and is faster and more explosive. He also has a really impressive ability to break tackles. He runs violently and with aggression and has elite YAC ability. OSU gave him 11 run plays throughout 2022 which he turned into 87 yards and 2 TDs. He is also an asset in the run game as an effective blocker which will endear him to NFL coaches. His hands are above average and his route running is elite at every level in the route tree. He plays a very complimentary role to Harrison. Fantrax has Egbuka projected to score 20.6 ppg in 2023. His NFL comp is faster, Deebo Samuel.

In Devy

It's unlikely you would have a chance of rostering both OSU receivers without trading. If you have a pick later than the 1.05 you will need to trade up, or offer a trade after the draft to get Egbuka. While it won't cost you as much as Harrison, it will still require a Mahomes OR a 2024 first, not both.

 

WINNER

Marvin Harrison, Jr., but you knew that.

 

Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Headlines Trio Of Buckeyes 'Freaks' - Sports Illustrated Ohio State Buckeyes News, Analysis and More

Dynasty Dilemma: Russell Wilson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Russell Wilson

by Brendon Booth

 

Russell Wilson has been an absolute mainstay in fantasy football leagues for the last 10 years. He was the Seattle Seahawks starting quarterback from day one of his rookie season after being drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft out of Wisconsin, by way of North Carolina State. A multi-sport athlete, Wilson was drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in 2007 but elected to play both sports at NC St. In 2010, the Colorado Rockies drafted him again and he played in their minor league system for two years. He arrived in Seattle with previous experience in professional, as well as “big time” sports. 

At 5’11” and just over 210 pounds, Wilson is not the prototypical NFL QB in terms of stature, but Seattle seemed to have made a great choice as “DangeRuss” helped lead the Seahawks to back-to-back Super Bowls in 2013 and 2014. He even earned himself a ring in 2013. Over the course of his career, Wilson earned himself a reputation as a winner and a durable QB. From 2012 to 2020 he had only winning seasons, and he never missed a game. That all changed in 2021. Wilson missed 3 games due to injury and the Seahawks finished with a record of 6-8 in the games he played. He followed up 2021 with the worst statistical season of his career in 2022 for the Denver Broncos, and finished with a record of 4-11 in the games he played, again missing time with injury.

What we have in Russell Wilson is a 9 time Pro-Bowler with a Super Bowl ring, the 5th most TD passes among active QBs, and the 5th highest career QB rating ever, but he’s entering the season in which he will turn 35 years old. So, what do we do with Russell Wilson?

 

REASON TO BUY

People don’t just forget how to play football, and Wilson is bringing 11 seasons of knowledge to the Broncos and new head coach Sean Payton. Wilson also has 8 Top 10 fantasy finishes in his career. His worst two finishes, each in the last two years, were both QB16. He also threw for his lowest TD total of any year of his career in 2022. Enter Payton. Some people see Sean Payton as a “fixer.” He has an established system with proven success earned in New Orleans including three NFC Championship game appearances and a Super Bowl win. Payton knows what he’s doing. I’ll mention, too, that the Super Bowl was won with another QB who was considered “undersized”, in Drew Brees. Payton spent the offseason building around Russ. He brought in offensive linemen and a new running back in free agency, and targeted a speedy wide receiver in the draft. 

With very little positive regression back toward his normal performance levels, Wilson could easily see an improvement on his ranking.

 

 

 

REASON TO SELL

Sometimes when the end comes, it comes faster than we realize. They call that “falling off the cliff” when it comes to performance. Russ never missed a game in 9 years. The last two seasons, he’s missed time due to injury. Age is as big a factor as the team around him. Yes, the Broncos as a whole were terrible last season, but Wilson’s skill level couldn’t elevate the team, as it may have done in previous seasons. If we assess who knows Wilson better than anybody, we’d probably find that to be Pete Carroll, and he knew it was time to move on. Quarterback values tend to decline beginning at age 32. That is exactly when Wilson’s decline began. There tends to be an uptick from age 35 to age 36 but that is attributed more to the overall ability of QBs that actually make it to their age 36 season. Russ doesn’t appear to be in that tier of player and what that means for him is that his value will hover at about half of what it was in his prime over the next two seasons. Wilson is not Drew Brees and he never was. Brees sustained success into his 40’s and was in his own prime at the age Wilson is now. Payton is another factor. He inherited Wilson. If the Broncos ship doesn’t recover, Payton likely won’t hesitate to bring in his own guy that he believes can do it. Do we want to be the owners to watch all of that play out?

 

 

VERDICT

Wilson is currently ranked as DynastyPros QB21 in Superflex leagues, Wilson SHOULD outperform his ADP, but if he’s your QB2, now is the time to make a move. Wilson is an advantageous trade piece with similar value in our trade calculator to Jordan Love, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, and Sam Howell. Shoot offers to owners of all of those QBs straight-up if you’re in a rebuild mode. If you’re contending, Russ and a 2024 2nd for Daniel Jones comes out pretty even. Just remember, my trade proposals are starting points. It may take more or less from either side to finesse the situation, but the bottom line is we’re in offload mode.

Startups, Best Ball, Redrafts are all the same, fade and avoid.

 

SELL

Devy Dilemma: Jaydn Ott

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ott

 

Jaydn Ott

School: California

Pos: Running Back

6'0" 200lbs

Draft Eligible: 2025

Devy Dilemma: Jaydn Ott

 

Jaydn Ott’s freshman season at the University of California, Berkeley ended with a total line of 897 yards on 170 rushing attempts, for an average of 5.3 yards per carry, and 8 touchdowns in 12 games. He added 36 receptions for 321 yards and 3 more trips to the end zone. His 1218 yards from scrimmage was 4th in the Pac-12, behind fellow running back Zach Charbonnet and wide receiver Xazavian Valladay, both NFL draftees, and Oregon sophomore Bucky Irving. Ott was a consistent highlight throughout Cal’s lackluster season, but what should we do with him in Devy leagues?

Ott’s debut at Cal was a flag plant. He rushed for over 100 yards and caught a pass for a TD against (my hometown) UC Davis in Week 1. From that point forward, Ott showed major flashes of talent. As the focal point of the offense in Week 4 against Arizona, he carried the ball 19 times for 274 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns, including runs of 73 and 72 yards. That put him 3rd all-time in school history for rushing yards in a game and set a freshman record. Ott ran up 120 total yards and 2 TD against USC and his 148 scrimmage yards and TD helped Cal beat Stanford in their all-important rivalry game. Ott’s finish saw him ranked 5th in the conference in rushing yards and 8th in touchdowns. Ott is as complete a back as you could hope for. He crashes holes inside and can turn the corner outside. He is also more than competent as a pass-catcher. According to scouting analysis he has good burst through the line to go with breakaway speed. He’s tenacious and will fight through tackles and for yards after the catch. As the standout of the Cal offense he will get plenty of opportunity to show what he can do as he progresses through the next two seasons.

 

 

Ott’s opportunity earned may also contribute to a statistical slide to average or worse. Cal doesn’t have much going for it on offense and defenses can commit to stopping Ott and the running game. It remains to be seen if he can overcome stacked boxes or focused coverage. While he showed flashes as a freshman, his season wasn’t exempt from struggles. Against Notre Dame Ott managed a season low 2.5 YPC, rushing for 33 yards on 13 carries. Oregon State stifled him as well, holding him to 26 total yards on 12 touches.

Additionally, Ott is still a little bit light in weight. Ott weighs a listed 200lbs, but that assumes accurate measurement which we likely won’t have until the 2025 combine. With few exceptions, fantasy success for running backs is predicated on BMI. 220 pounds is the ideal mass for predicting top 12 success and Ott has yet to fill out to that level. At 6 feet tall he very well could have the frame to add 20 more real pounds.

Ott is currently ranked in our Devy Rankings as RB22 and RB7 among 2025 draft eligible backs. The 4 running backs in his class ranked directly behind him all come from schools with more balanced attacks who may have the ability to produce without being focused upon.

 

As is the standard in the Devy community, after you leave the consensus of the top 20, rankings can be all over the place. I’ve seen Ott listed as RB65, RB35, 65 overall, and I’ve seen him drafted at pick 50. 

If you are in a Devy startup draft and Ott is available to you in the 5th round or later, I say he’s definitely worth the upside shot. 

If you own him, hold for now. Weight gain over the next two years could reward you.

If he is currently rostered in your Devy league, I would wait and watch as his sophomore season takes shape and jump on any value dip. He has plenty of upside based on his skill set and a tough season at Cal could be to your advantage. Ott should be a high value asset at some point, whether that is as a producer in your lineup or as a trade piece a few years from now.