Alex French

Dynasty Dilemma: Derrick Henry

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Dynasty Dilemma: Derrick Henry

By Alex French

 

The NFL draft is just a couple days away, which means your rookie drafts are quickly approaching. With this in mind, it's time to figure out if your team is ready to. Win now, or if you’re building for the future. So, it’s time to evaluate those veterans and roster spots to determine what lies in the future. Today, we take a look at what to do with former NFL rushing champion, Derrick Henry.

 

First and foremost, it’s important to self-evaluate. This can be difficult, but it's important to be as honest as possible with your team evaluation. Some NFL teams even struggle with this, however, if you’re able to do it correctly, success is in the future. So, are you in a position to make a run at the title in your league? Or are you in a position where you might make the playoffs? Alternatively, are you a team that would be competing for that first overall pick in the 2023 rookie draft? Once you’ve determined which category your team fits, the dilemma becomes much clearer. If your evaluation leads you to the ladder, and your poised for a title run now, maybe you want to consider acquiring Henry. Let’s evaluate further.

By far one of the best overall athletes in the entire league,Henry defied the odds last season. In 2020,Henry rushed for over 2000 yards with 17 touchdowns. Incredibly, in 2021, he was on pace to do it again before his season was cut short by a foot fracture.  In previous seasons, a foot fracture was more often than not a season ending injury, yet Henry refused to let that happen. He returned for the Tennessee Titans playoff game. He managed 62 yards and. A touchdown, but it wasn’t enough. The fact Henry returned at all is encouraging for fantasy managers looking at their title chances in 2022. If you have a later round rookie pick, it will likely help your team less than what Henry represents. This is where self evaluation becomes critical. If you’re looking at a youth filled roster, or maybe one where you don’t really have studs anywhere you may want to consider the opposite side and read the following paragraphs.  As a contender, you can be encouraged that Henry was off to an incredible start with 937 rushing yards in just eight games. He also chipped in 154 receiving yards. Despite playing in just eight games, he still finished at RB22 on the season. Interestingly enough, he was also on pace to have a career best 42.5 receptions. With newly acquired Robert Woods coming off a late season ACL tear, the Titans may need Henry to catch passes again. As a contender, make your move during the rookie draft to acquire Henry.

 

 

That all being said, there are still health concerns here. As good as Henry was for your fantasy team, he missed more than half the season with a foot fracture. As we;’ve seen in many cases before, this can be a lingering issue. Of course Henry came back for the Titans playoff game, but he clearly wasn’t himself with just 62 yards. Henry has seen an incredible workload over his career, and it's entirely possible it's catching up with him. In addition, Henry is already an outlier from a production standpoint. He continues to be a top fantasy running back despite his lackluster usage in the passing game. Running backs see their production fall off quite significantly after turning 26, and Henry just turned 28. With running backs, it's always better to get out a year too early than a year too late, think Todd Gurley. Gurley was risky due to a well documented knee issue, but let me ask you, is a foot injury all that different? I think now is the time to trade him away. It’s entirely possible to imagine Henry having a top 20 finish at the position, but that’s a risk I’m willing to accept. 

 

So if he’s a trade candidate, what do we do? Well, there’s a few ways to approach the situation. As mentioned previously, rookie draft season is right around the corner. It’s not unreasonable to ask for a first rounder for Henry. I would look to target your favorite back in this class. If that happens to be Breece Hall, you may have to add your own picks to swing a trade as Hall is currently the first pick of rookie drafts. If you’ve had Henry on your team though, chances are you have a later round pick. I’d be willing to offer a late first and Henry for the 1.01 if that may be enough. If not, Kenneth Walker has been receiving a lot of hype lately, and has an incredible athletic profile as well. His current ADP is pick 3. That may be much more attainable. 

This may be an unpopular opinion, and it's certainly risky, but a 28 year old running back coming off a foot fracture, with the workload of Derrick Henry, is more risk than I’m willing to take. In order for Henry to hit value going as the fourth overall pick, you need an outlier season of close to league lead in rushing yards and likely 12 or more touchdowns. Pair that with how little passing game work Henry gets, and you’re already asking for a lot. Add in returning from a foot fracture, and you’re approaching something close to hitting on a 5 tier parlay. That’s not a gamble I’m willing to take. 

 

Check out all our other great content on the website, and you can find me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF

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Dynasty Dilemma: Deshaun Watson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Deshaun Watson

By Alex French

 

It's St. Patrick's Day, and I’m enjoying a nice cold beverage when I hear the familiar chime of a notification. It’s being reported that the Cleveland Browns are out of the running for Deshaun Watson. Fast forward 24 hours, and Watson has signed a shiny new 5 year/$230 million, fully guaranteed contract. Watson has waived his no-trade clause, and shifted the future of the Browns. Let’s discuss the impact that matters most. The fantasy impact.

 

Reasons to Buy

 

Elite Talent

The last time we saw Watson, he had a career high 33 touchdown passes on 544 attempts. Last year the Cleveland Browns had 520 team pass attempts. It’s reasonable to expect that number to hover closer to the 544 range we saw last from Watson in 2020. A fully guaranteed $230 million should provide evidence. If we can project near 550 pass attempts, 4500 passing yards is within the range of outcomes. Using the league average touchdown rate of 4.5%,  that’s roughly 25 touchdown passes. That mark would be the lowest of Watson’s career disregarding his injury shortened rookie season, so look for that number to be closer to 30. Watson also averaged 470 rushing yards in his three full seasons as the starter in Houston. Pair that with the average of 5 rushing touchdowns per season, and we have fantasy gold. That’s nearly 80 additional fantasy points just from the rushing upside of Watson. This is precisely the upside we want from our fantasy QB1, but there’s more excitement to the fit … the weapons surrounding him in Cleveland.

 

Elite Surrounding Cast

Just a few days ago, the Browns made headlines by adding Amari Cooper from the Cowboys. Cooper has a skill set that compliments Watson perfectly. Cooper is an excellent route runner with good speed and separation. They should create an exciting combination to watch, and Watson has a history of heavily targeting his number 1 receiver. Think DeAndre Hopkins and his 140+ targets per season.. Perhaps more interestingly though, Watson will get to experience something he never had in Houston, a good run game. Nick Chubb is an explosive running back defenses have to respect. This should help Watson improve passing efficiency  utilizing play-action. Furthermore, Watson will also be playing behind the best offensive line of his career. 

 

 

Reasons to Sell

 

Possible Suspension

With new weapons, one of the best offensive lines in the league, and  an explosive run game,  what’s not to like about Deshaun Watson this season. Perhaps a lingering suspension you ask. We haven’t seen Watson on the football field since the 2020 season. He sat out the entire 2021 NFL season due to sexual misconduct allegations filed by 22 plaintiffs. On March 10th, a grand jury determined there is insufficient evidence to charge him criminally. However, there are still civil suits to resolve. The NFL is also expected to conduct their own investigation. Most believe this will result in a suspension for Watson. The true question is of course how long. This will be news to keep watching for. 

Massive Haul

Imagine what you could get right now if you were to trade Deshaun Watson...especially in a SuperFlex league.  If you are a rebuilding team that owns Watson shares, you could get majorly compensated if you were to deal him to a team that is looking to compete now. This is where it’s important to assess your team's risk factor. If your team is built to compete for a fantasy championship now, you may be willing to withstand a few games without Watson knowing you should have him for crunch time in the late season and playoffs. Conversely, if your team is rebuilding and not yet ready to compete, Watson is a great acquisition to make. For the team in a rebuild, Watson missing games this season is unimportant. Watson is now locked in with Cleveland for the next 5 years. Cleveland made him a long term commitment, and has the tools in place to help him find success for the Browns, and your fantasy team. 

 

 

Be sure to check out the rest of our great content on Dynastyprosfootball.com and follow me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF

Dynasty Dilemma: Russell Wilson

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Dynasty Dilemma: Russell Wilson

By Alex French

 

What a rush?!?! Within 3 hours 2 potential Hall of Fame quarterbacks announce their 2022 teams. Aaron Rodgers returns to Green Bay, and perhaps more influential to our fantasy teams, Russell Wilson was traded to the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have been in search of a quarterback since Peyton Manning retired. Broncos fans, rejoice! The search is over. Let’s dig into what this means for your fantasy team.

 

Reason to Sell

Injury

The 2021 season was one to forget for Wilson. Surgery on his throwing hand forced him to miss 3 games. Returning to the field sooner than many expected, Wilson’s play wasn’t quite what we’ve come to expect from the 9-time pro-bowler. However, He finished strong with 655 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, and just 1 interception over his last 3 games. He even chipped in with his legs with over 40 rushing yards. 

 

Age/Size

Russ isn't getting any younger.  At 33 years old (will be 34 midway through the season), Wilson's style of play doesn't lend to a overly long career.  He will eventually have to evolve the way he plays in order to increase his potential of longevity.  Also, as a smaller QB, he will have to limit the amount of hits he takes in the future.

 

 

Reason to Buy

Improved Talent

In 2022, he gets a much improved offensive line in Denver that allowed just 40 sacks last season, which would be the fewest number since 2012 for Wilson. With time to throw, look for Wilson to maintain the elite efficiency he’s exhibited throughout his career. Beyond just the offensive line, Wilson gets an excellent defense and plenty of offensive weapons to play with. 

Russell Wilson arrives in Denver with a head coach who just helped lead Aaron Rodgers to back to back MVP awards. If the Packers offense of the last 2 years provides a template, we should be able to project a potent offense with plenty of fantasy points to go around. We have seen Wilson thrive with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in Seattle. Now, he gets to see what he can do with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Judy, Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, and a red zone target in Albert Okwuegbunm. Not to mention rising star Javonta Williams out of the backfield. 

Russell Wilson gets a fresh start, surrounded by young talent with a strong offensive line. Expect to see great things from Wilson in Denver. Perhaps the highest fantasy finish of his career. With at least 3+ years left in the tank, look to acquire Wilson in your dynasty leagues.

 

The 2nd Year Running Back Comparison

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The 2nd Year Running Back Comparison

By Alex French

It's finally here! The 2021 NFL season is officially underway. The draft is about a month away. Those not-so-free agents are able to sign with teams, and it's time to dig into our research to decide which players to target, as well as avoid during draft season. Considering the perceived scarcity at running back, I think it’s only appropriate  we discuss a few. With draft season in full swing, I’ll be focused on some rookies from the last draft class. More specifically, I want to focus on D’Andre Swift and  JK Dobbins. Just for good measure, I’m going to include another who has been quite polarizing of late, James Robinson.

D’Andre Swift; Detroit Lions 

Selected with the 3rd overall pick of the second round in the 2020 NFL draft, Swift perhaps didn’t have the most exciting landing spot. However, a case can be made that he made his presence known right away. In his first game, he was on the field for over 40% of the team’s plays. That number isn’t eye-popping, however, he saw immediate usage in the red zone with 2 opportunities. That is uncommon for rookies. Swift had only 6 games where he was on the field for more than 50% of the Lions offensive plays. Yet, in his limited work, he managed to get 26 red zone opportunities, converting on 10 of them. That’s good for a %38.5 conversion rate. Perhaps equally as important, Swift was heavily used in the passing game. Over the season, he was targeted 57 times, catching 46 of them.

As a team, the Lions scored 45 touchdowns last season, which was 16th best in the league. In the offseason, they traded Matthew Stafford to the Rams for Jared Goff. The Lions also let Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones sign with other teams. With this in mind, it's reasonable to project less touchdown opportunities for the Lions. The change to Goff should still mean targets for Swift though. In 2019, Todd Gurley had 49 targets from Goff, showing his willingness to check it down to his running back. With the losses at receiver, Swift also may be asked to move into the slot on occasion. Should that happen, his 1.11 fantasy points per touch should rise even higher in 2021. That mark was the highest of the players I looked at for this exercise.

Projection

160 carries, 804 rush yards, 55 receptions, 253 rec yards, and 9 total touchdowns

JK Dobbins; Baltimore Ravens 

Like Swift, Dobbins was selected in the second round of the NFL draft. Also like Swift, Dobbins had just 6 games where he was on the field for more than 50% of plays. Unlike Swift though, Dobbins was hardly used in the passing game, seeing just 24 targets. However, Dobbins managed to make the most of his opportunities. Dobbins  averaged 6 yards per touch and evaded 47 tackles. He led the league in percentage of runs over 10 yards, as well as true yards per carry, which factors in the offensive line. Dobbins accounted for 9 total touchdowns last season on 28 red zone opportunities.

Looking at opportunity and production, Swift outperformed Dobbins in the touchdown efficiency department. A case can be made that Swift’s use in the passing game is the reason. However, to illustrate the efficiency Dobbins had running the ball, he averaged just .07 points per touch less than Swift with 1.04 on the season. Yet, it cannot go without saying that Dobbins has a quarterback who also takes away red zone touches. Lamar Jackson ran the ball 159 times last season adding 7 touchdowns. The Ravens also decided to let Mark Ingram leave for Houston, which could mean slightly more carries for Dobbins. However, a lack of targets means he will have to have Derrick Henry type usage, which is unlike the Ravens. That being said, Dobbins should still provide value due to his efficiency.

Projection

155 carries, 965 rush yards, 20 receptions, 130 rec yards, and 10 total touchdowns

James Robinson; Jacksonville Jaguars

Unlike Swift and Dobbins, Robinson had quite a different path to the NFL. As an undrafted free agent, Robinson forced his way onto the field and ran away with the job. Commanding 85% of the team’s opportunities, he made his presence felt. Out of this list, Robinson is the only player with more than 200 touches. He had 289. Robinson averaged 0.83 points per touch, which is impressive considering most of it came as rushing attempts. He accounted for 10 total touchdowns last season, more than a third of the team total.

With the Jaguars expected to improve in all phases of the game this year, they should see a touchdown increase, as well as increase the number of rush attempts from the 5th fewest in the NFL.  In free agency, the Jaguars added Carlos Hyde as a veteran presence. If Healthy, he should help make Robinson even more efficient. Robinson managed to evade  79 tackles, which was 5th best in the league. The offensive line should improve with another year together to provide more optimism heading into 2021 for Robinson. Given the current situation in Jacksonville, I like Robinson heading into next year.

Projection

255 carries, 1163 rush yards, 50 receptions, 239 rec yards, and 10 total touchdowns 

Looking at these numbers and projections, it appears James Robinson is my favorite of the three. I am actually surprised at this myself. With Jamaal Williams joining Swift in the Detroit backfield, Swift could lose some of the passing game work that provides such upside. As an example of the value of receptions, here’s two players. Player 1 had 264 total touches for 1092 yards and 10 touchdowns. Player 2 had 152 touches for 862 yards and 7 touchdowns. Player 1 is Kenyon Drake. In general, most would say he underwhelmed last season. Player 2 was Nyheim Hines. In PPR leagues, Hines outscored Drake by 1 point. 193.2-192.2. With this in mind, Dobbins would need 13 to 18 carries with nearly all the goal line work to offer similar upside to Swift and Robinson. With how the Ravens have played since Lamar Jackson became the starter, no single running back has had more than 230 touches in a season (Mark Ingram 2019). Swift will now likely share passing down work with Jamaal Williams, hurting his value. Of course the Jaguars can still add competition for Robinson in the draft, but as things currently lie, I’ll take Robinson followed by Swift then Dobbins.

 

Follow me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF

Post-Hype Sleepers: Tight Ends

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Post-Hype Sleepers: Tight Ends

By Alex French

It’s Sunday evening, the weekend is winding down, and that means it's back to the grind in the morning. I’ve been putting this article off all weekend, as this has been the hardest of the series to write. What is the reason you ask? Well, some of the guys that were hyped lived up to it like Darren Waller and Mark Andrews. Others, like OJ Howard and Hunter Henry, have had their situations drastically change.  As a reminder, I consider a post-hype sleeper a player who received large amounts of hype, but failed to meet expectations.

Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints 

This is a bit of a weird pick, but hear me out. Cook had 9 touchdowns last year on just 43 receptions. That’s good for an incredible TD rate of 20.9 percent. By no means do I think he will repeat that rate. However, even with regression baked in, I think he’s in line for a top 8 finish at the position. Cook  was learning a new offense last year and he also dealt with an injury early on.  Once Cook returned from his injury, Drew Brees left with one of his own. Towards the end of the season, Brees and Cook seemed to really hit a groove. With a full season to have learned the offense, and the chemistry Cook now has with his quarterback, it's quite easy to see a scenario where Cook finishes with over 700 yards and 8 touchdowns.

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

It’s hard to put Hockenson in this category considering he was a rookie last year. Yet, if you remember the narrative last year, it was that Hockenson had too much talent. He was going to be the rookie tight end that finally put up good numbers and change the idea that rookie tight ends just don’t produce. Well, he did…. in week 1. Following his 100+ yard performance, he failed to even top 65 yards the remainder of the season. With Matthew Stafford healthy, I expect Hockenson to put it all together in year two. He’s supremely athletic and in a pass heavy offense. Look for him to prove why he was a top-10 pick in the NFL draft.

Evan Engram, New York Giants 

Injuries have plagued Engram since he entered the league in 2017. He has only played in 19 games the last 2 seasons combined. However, he has produced solid numbers when on the field. Entering his fourth year in the league, I could see him putting it all together. The Giants don’t have a true alpha receiver which also opens the door for Engram to see plenty of opportunity in the offense. It’s also reasonable to expect the Giants to see many negative game scripts this season. This should mean quite a few pass attempts as the Giants play catch up. At the tight end position, opportunity is sometimes all it takes. Add the athleticism Evan Engram brings, and you have the recipe for a reliable weekly starter in your lineup. 

I know these names may not be the most exciting at the position, but tight end saw quite a few breakouts last season. There are also many names that generate excitement in the later rounds, such as Blake Jarwin, Jonnu Smith, and another favorite of mine, Hayden Hurst. With all this in mind, I think 2020 is finally the year the tight end position actually has some depth. Let me know on Twitter who your favorite post-hype sleepers are this year @TheBlindGuyFF.

Post-Hype Sleepers: Quarterbacks

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Post-Hype Sleepers: Quarterbacks

By Alex French

It’s here! Draft season is upon us and I can't contain my excitement. The NFL season is right around the corner, and we are here to help you bring home a championship. To begin your run at glory, here is the next in my post-hype sleepers series. Today we’re talking Quarterbacks. As a reminder, I define post-hype sleeper as a player who received large amounts of hype and excitement, but failed to live up to expectations. Let’s jump in!

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

If you follow me on Twitter (@TheBlindGuyFF), you may recognize this statistic. However, it makes a solid stance for the stability of Wentz. Wentz is the only quarterback to finish top 12 at the position, who had at least 1 touchdown pass in every game. That presents a very solid floor. 

This off-season the Eagles drafted 3 receivers (Jalen Reagor-1st RD, John Hightower-5th RD, Quez Watkins-6th RD) in this year’s draft to help add depth to what was a depleted receiving corps last year. Dallas Goeddert continues to improve each year in the league, and Zach Ertz continues to be a top target for Wentz. Carson Wentz is also the first quarterback to ever throw for over 4,000 yards without a single Wide Receiver topping 500 yards. Imagine what he could do with healthy receiving weapons. Oh yeah...he almost won the MVP award before he had his own injury. Wentz is in line for another top-12 finish and provides great value in all formats.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

As a rookie, Mayfield set the rookie record for touchdown passes with 27. That is more than Deshaun Watson has ever thrown in a single season. Mayfield also did that in just 14 games. This off-season the Browns heavily addressed the offensive line issues of last season. Pro Football Focus ranked them as the most improved line and third best in the league.

Kevin Stefanski takes over as the new Head Coach, which should help this offense take a step in the right direction. Look for the Browns offense as a whole to improve efficiency, allowing Baker Mayfield to show what helped him become a number one overall pick and a Heisman Trophy winner.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

2019 was a year the Steelers would probably like to forget. Injuries plagued their roster at all phases. From the offensive line, to RBs, and of course the receiving corps It seemed like no one could stay on the field. It all starts with the signal caller, who left in week 2. 

When we last saw Big Ben in a full season in 2018, he put together a finish behind only Patrick Mahomes.  After his surgery, Roethlisberger stated that it’s the first time in years he has had no pain in his elbow. Recent reports from Pittsburgh indicate he hasn’t lost any velocity and has even lost some extra weight. He has been hard at work and says he feels better than ever. I understand these are all things every player says coming off a major injury, but let's look at other factors. 

The Steelers offensive line is healthy, James Conner is healthy and even added muscle to reduce the injury risk, and perhaps most importantly, his top target in JuJu Smith-Schuster is healthy.  With the addition of Chase Claypool, JuJu should be able to slide back into the slot. Roethlisberger will also get to step onto the field for the first time with second-year wideout Diontae Johnson. The Steelers appear to be poised for a run at another Super Bowl with all hands on deck. With an improved team all around him, and his weapons and himself healthy, I think Roethlisberger will make fantasy owners happy in 2020. 

 

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF