June 21, 2024

ADP Ins and Outs- Wide Receivers

6 min read

As we get closer to your redraft leagues starting I want to continue to give you players that I am In and Out on based on their current ADP. (Average Draft Price). This is not to say that these players shouldn’t be taken or are not good. It’s nearly saying that at the cost of acquiring them, I either would go for it or avoid it. Here are the five wide receivers I’m IN and OUT on for the 2023 NFL season

 

In

Devonta Smith- Philadelphia Eagels

 

Currently going as the 12th wide receiver off the board and the 29th overall pick I love getting Devonta Smith in the late 2nd rounds. He finished the season off strong and in some games outpaces his teammate A.J. Brown who is being drafted as the WR5 and 12th overall. You get very similar production from Smith who is also heading into the magical 3rd year of his career. It’s a high-powered passing offense. Smith was used in all game scripts and could be the number-one passing option this season for the Eagles and Jalen Hurts.

 

Out

Garrett Wilson- New York Jets

 

I’m not saying that Garrett Wilson isn’t a massive talent but I have questions about his production this year. With Aaron Rodgers coming in and a new offensive system, I wonder if Wilson can make the connections. Rodgers is historically known for favoring his guys and for taking a long time to trust wide receivers. With Allen Lazard there I wonder if we could see a Dionte Johnson-like season for Wilson. Plenty of targets but low touchdown numbers. As the 9th wide receiver coming off the board at the end of the 2nd round I would rather address another position and get wide receiver value later.

 

In

Courtland Sutton- Denver Broncos

 

I think the Denver Broncos are going to turn things around. I believe Sean Payton is a good coach and that Russell Wilson had a bad year and can still cook. I think Courtland Sutton is a receiver not getting enough love. He finished the year with 109 targets and is now being drafted as the 44th wide receiver. He finished as the 43rd best last year mainly because he only had two touchdowns on the year. I believe that number will increase and thus his finish will rise. Providing a value at his current draft price. With Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler both out, it only consolidates the targets more for Sutton and Jerry Jeudy

 

Out

Mike Williams- Los Angeles Chargers

 

There is no denying that Mike Williams is a talent on the field. My issue is how often he is actually on the field. He seems to always be nursing some sort of injury and carries a questionable tag heading into every game. With the Chargers drafting Quenton Johnston I think they are less likely to rush Williams back onto the field when he does have a minor injury. He is being drafted as the WR28 which is 4 spots ahead of where he finished last year. Too many mouths to feed even in a high-powered offense for me to see a return on investment. 

 

In

Calvin Ridley- Jacksonville Jaguars

 

I know it’s been really two years since we have seen Calvin Ridley play but when we did he finished the 2020 season as the WR4. He was on pace to finish the 2021 season as the WR20 and that was with him not really being fully invested in playing. Currently being drafted as the WR14 in the middle of the fifth round you are getting great value on a possible top 5 wide receiver. He has a great up-and-coming quarterback on a team that should be pass-happy this season. Christian Kirk saw 133 targets last season on his way to a WR11 finish. Ridley is the more talented receiver and there are 113 vacated targets that should easily go Ridley’s way.

 

Out

Jaxon Smith-Njigba- Seattle Seahawks

 

The guy is a clear talent. I just don’t love the landing spot this year. He has to fight both DK Metcalf and Tyler Locket for targets. Neither of them is going anywhere. The 3rd leading target getting on the Seahawks last year was tight end Noah Fant who only had 68 targets and the next wide receiver was Marquise Goodwin who only saw 39 targets. I expect J.S.N. to fall somewhere between that. On a run-first team, I don’t want the 3rd or 4th target getter. Being drafted as the WR40 seems a bit high for the rookie receiver. I think long-term in dynasty JSN is a buy but not this year. 

 

In

Adam Theilen- Carolina Panthers

 

Only three times in his career has Adam Thielen finished as less than a WR3 and that was his rookie season and the year he only played 10 games. He is just an efficient pass-catcher. He now moves to the Carolina Panthers who have a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young, who will need a sure-handed veteran to throw to. Thielen is being drafted as the WR53. He is as close to a lock as there is to beat that draft price. He is a tall red-zone threat which only bolsters his fantasy finish. He has averaged 10 touchdowns a season over the past three seasons. 

 

Out

Treylon Burks- Tennessee Titans

 

I was out on Treylon Burks before the Tennessee Titans signed DeAndre Hopkins. Now that Nuk is in the folds I can’t fade Burks fast enough. Still being drafted as the WR39 it seems high. He is at best the second pass catcher on probably the most run-heavy team in the league with one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Not to mention his less stellar rookie season and the games he missed. It seems too high of a price that is a holdover from his draft hype. I don’t ever expect Treylon Burks to reach the top epsilon on the wide receiver landscape and provide fantasy value but not at his current cost. 

 

In

Van Jefferson- Los Angeles Rams

 

I think the Rams should be better this season. Matthew Stafford is healthy and even if he isn’t I believe Stetson Bennet can be serviceable in the NFL. Cooper Kupp is good but is getting up in age and already dealing with injuries this season. That leaves a lot of room and targets for another wide receiver to step into. Van Jefferson is that man for me. He is being drafted as the WR72. Ben Skowronek played only 14 games last year, had no touchdowns, and finished as the WR86. Van Jefferson only played in 11 games and finished as the WR92. If he stays healthy he is poised to outdo his draft cost.

 

Out

Skyy Moore- Kansas City Cheifs

 

I just don’t get the massive hype for Skyy Moore. If he wasn’t on the Chiefs no one would care about him. He only had one good year at Western Michigan and did nothing during his rookie season despite playing in 16 games. He is small and undersized. Yes, Patrick Mahomes is an amazing quarterback but we haven’t seen another pass catcher outside of Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill have a fantasy-relevant season. Being drafted as the WR57 isn’t too high of a cost but I don’t see him finishing much above that if at all. Juju Smith-Schuster finished as the WR27 last year. With Kadarius Toney and Rashee Rice in the mix, I find it hard to see a pathway for Moore to be nothing more than the new Mecole Hardman who only once finished above Moore’s current WR57 draft price.