April 13, 2024

ADP INs and Outs- Quarterbacks and Tight Ends

6 min read

As we get closer to your redraft leagues starting I want to continue to give you players that I am In and Out on based on their current ADP. (Average Draft Price). This is not to say that these players shouldn’t be taken or are not good. It’s nearly saying that at the cost of acquiring them, I either would go for it or avoid it. Here are the two quarterbacks and three tight ends I’m IN and OUT on for the 2023 NFL season

 

In 

Jared Goff- Detroit Lions

 

Last season Jared Goff led the Lions to a 9-8 record and just missed out on the Lions’ first playoff appearance since 2016. All on the way to a QB10 finish for fantasy. Goff is now being drafted as the QB17. He is an instant IN for me. He did well last season and adds in Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam Laporta as well as another year of development for Amon-Ra St.Brown and Jameson Williams. He should easily outproduce his draft price. He could end up winning fantasy manager’s leagues as they wait on a quarterback and stock up on high draft picks at running back and wide receiver. 

 

Out

Justin Fields- Chicago Bears

 

Don’t hear what I’m not saying. Justin Fields is a good quarterback but this is about draft cost and if they will match or exceed that. I don’t see it for Justin Fields. He finished as the QB7 last season and is now being drafted as the QB6. Yes, they added DJ Moore to the mix and Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet should be healthy all year. These are exactly why I think Fields is being drafted too high. Over half of his fantasy points, last season came from his rushing numbers. If the passing game is better he should have to run less. He will progress now in his third season and they added weapons to help him. The Bears also added two solid rushers to their team in D’Onte Foreman and Roschon Johnson to go along with Khalil Herbert. All to help take the rushing load off of Fields. I think QB6 might be his ceiling. 

 

In

C.J. Stroud- Houston Texans

 

I’ve said all along that C.J. Stroud is the best quarterback in this year’s NFL draft and I still believe that. The question and concern for fantasy managers is what kind of upside does he posses. This is reflected in his draft cost as he is coming off the board as QB25. I believe that Stroud is the next interaction of the mold that Kirk Cousins has set. Cousins has never finished lower than the QB20 in a season where he was the starter. Stroud may not have the high rushing upside of Anthony Richardson but he is a very skilled quarterback on a team with young talented pass catchers. He should do well this season and be a stud for years to come

 

Out

Anthony Richardson- Indianapolis Colts

 

I love the buzz around Anthony Richardson. He is big. He is athletic. He is a sight to be seen. Unfortunately, we haven’t SEEN him as a starting quarterback in the NFL yet he is being drafted as the QB16 ahead of proven producers. We also only saw him play limited time in college. It’s a high price to pay for an unproven at any level passer. He would have to have a very high rushing floor and not turn the ball over to produce at or above his current draft cost. 

 

In 

Michael Mayer- Las Vegas Raiders

 

Michael Mayer was arguably one of the best tight-end talents in the draft. He was poised to be a fantasy impact player wherever he landed. He then landed in a great situation. He was drafted by the Raiders who brought in Jimmy Garoppolo. The Raiders’ offensive system last season threw 91 targets to the starting combination of Darrin Waller and Foster Moreau. Jimmy Garoppolo fed George Kittle enough to make him a top 5 TE in the three years he got the majority of the starting time. Mayer is being drafted as the TE18. He is basically free in non-tight-end premium leagues. He will quickly make owners regret not taking him and be a high waiver pickup early in the season.

Out

Kyle Pitts- Atlanta Falcons

 

I’ve been off Kyle Pitts for a while. Yes, he is extremely athletic but I’m not sure if that always translates to being a good NFL player. My issue is he is being drafted as a great NFL player and we just haven’t seen it. Currently the TE5 off the board. If everyone believes that Drake London is a superstar and that running back Bijan Robinson should be the focal point of the offense and can get a ton of targets out of the backfield then what does that leave for Kyle Pitts? I’m a believer in the talent of Desmond Ridder under center but I don’t believe that one of the worst offenses last season turned into the high-octane scoring offense that we all want pieces of. Pitts should be good but I doubt his ability to get to his draft price

 

In

Tyler Higbee- Los Angeles Rams

 

Do you know what we want from our tight ends? At least 80 targets. A number that Tyler Higbee has seen three of the past four years. The Rams’ offense was not great last year due to injuries to quarterback Matthew Stafford and wideout Cooper Kupp. This year they both should be healthy and be poised to make one more Super Bowl run. Higbee is a crucial part of the offensive scheme. He is being drafted as the TE16. He was TE6 last season. If the offense can be better Higbee should be better. Even if his total targets come down his scoring opportunities should go up.

 

Out

Darren Waller- New York Giants

 

I don’t love drafting players who are older and have two seasons in a row of missing time with injury. I especially don’t like drafting them as the TE6. Yes,  Darren Waller is on a new team but I think that might actually hurt him. Tight ends last year for the Giants only saw a combined 73 targets. That’s just shy of the 80 target number I like to see for my tight ends and Waller isn’t going to get all of them. With Isaiah Hodgins having a full offseason, Wan’dale Robinson being healthy and Saquon Barkley back in the fold I’m not buying Waller as the TE6 this year. Too much risk for me

In

Mike Gesicki- New England Patriots

If you watched Mike Gesicki play at all from 2019 to 2021 then you know that he is a great pass-catching tight end. In those years he always had over 80 targets and never finished outside of TE12. In 2022 with new Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel, Gesicki wasn’t used the same way and finished as TE23 with only 52 targets. Now Gesicki signs with the New England Patriots and should see his targets and overall finish go back to what we have come to expect. He is being drafted as the TE23. So worst case you are drafting him at his finish last year. It’s a massive IN for me.

Out

Dalton Kincaid- Buffalo Bills

 

I’ve written a whole piece on Dalton Kincaid which you can find here. The basics of my thoughts are that rookie tight ends don’t develop and produce as fast as other positions. Being drafted as the highest rookie tightened at TE12 you are almost expecting close to historic numbers from him. Yes, he is on the Bills who have a high-powered offense but they don’t historically use the tight end or the slot position well so I don’t see a ton of opportunities for Kincaid this season.

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