July 20, 2024

2024 Quarterbacks to Target in Your Draft

3 min read

Since 2015, there have only been three quarterbacks drafted after round one that posted a 12 fantasy season. Those three players are Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. There have been 70 quarterbacks drafted in rounds two through seven since 2015, which isn’t a great hit rate. How can we better that?

The first thing we can do is look at players with better-than-average rushing yards per game. The average of those 70 guys is 14 rushing yards a game. It seems pretty low, but only 29 of the 70 quarterbacks hit this threshold.

Of those 29 quarterbacks, eight of them had a top-24 season (Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Josh Dobbs, Sam Howell, DeShone Kizer, Jacoby Brissett, and Desmond Ridder). The three guys mentioned above already hit the top 12. (Which is a much better hit rate than the players who did not rush for 14 yards per game.)

Out of the 41 quarterbacks drafted who did not rush for 14 yards per game, only three of them ever posted a top-24 season: Drew Lock, Davis Mills, and Gardner Minshew.

 

2024 Quarterbacks to Target

 

Avoid the quarterbacks outside of round one who did not rush for at least 14 yards per game.

Class of 2024 Quarterbacks

 

If we want to look at just the players who rushed for over 14 points per game (29), the average fantasy points per game they had was 22. So, I looked at players above and below that average.

 

The only player who scored below 22 fantasy points and had more than 14 rushing yards per game was Minshew. The quarterbacks in the 2024 class that fit this mold are Bo Nix (if he falls out of the first round), Michael Pratt, and Sam Hartman

Now, let’s dig into the money makers in the first round and try to narrow down the field. There have been 28 quarterbacks since 2015 to be drafted in the first round. Their average rushing yards per game was 22 yards.

 

Out of the 13 players who rushed for 22 yards a game or more, the only two who have not had a top-12 season are Anthony Richardson and Trey Lance. They started the least amount of games in college which could be a red flag. If we eliminate those two players who started less than 23 games in their career, they would have a 100% hit rate for the top 24.

Peter Howard has created an amazing tool that I find it very useful when looking at quarterbacks. (Follow him on Twitter – @pahowdy.) Using his tool, I found that if I eliminated quarterbacks who scored less than 0.5 points per game than the average college quarterback would at their ages,  I could eliminate four players: Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett, Sam Darnold, and Paxton Lynch.

I was still left with 11 players:

 

The two players without a top-24 performance were Dwayne Haskins and Josh Rosen. Haskins also did not start more than 23 games in college.

 

Class of 2024 Quarterbacks to Target

 

Now let us look at the class of 2024 quarterbacks for the first-rounders. Let’s look at their rushing yards per game:

I would eliminate the bottom two guys by not hitting 22 rushing yards per game. If McCarthy falls to the second round, I would be back in on him. With his lack of rushing ability, I am out on Penix Jr no matter what.

I am in on the other four guys. They all have started over 23 games and have more than .5 points per game, higher than the average by age. 


If you like articles like this, follow me @joshreedy5 on Twitter. Want to read more about some Class of 2024 quarterbacks? Check out Brandon’s NFL Draft Sleepers – 2024 Quarterbacks.