July 21, 2024

2024 Dynasty Dilemma: Josh Allen

5 min read

Just one month ago, Josh Allen was the unquestioned Top Dynasty quarterback and the 1.01 in superflex drafts. Now, after the Bills have essentially depleted the weapons that Josh Allen has at his disposal, he has plenty of questions for fantasy managers to answer. In the 2023 season, Allen was the #1-ranked quarterback in most formats.

In this Dynasty Dilemma, we will dig deeper into his current situation to determine how to handle the dilemma for Josh Allen in dynasty fantasy football.

Dynasty Dilemma: Josh Allen

Reasons to Sell

Lack of Weapons

Josh Allen has lost Stefon Diggs (trade) and Gabe Davis (free agency). With losing Diggs and Davis, Allen will see 152 receptions, 1,929 yards, and 15 touchdowns depart Buffalo. More importantly, the Bills have done little to address the loss of their top two playmakers in the wide receiver room. Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir are the only two remaining pass catchers who made significant contributions in 2023. 

The lone addition to the Bills receiving corps is Curtis Samuel. Samuel recorded 62 receptions for 613 yards and 4 touchdowns for the Washington Commanders. The Bills will look to fill the position early in the 2024 NFL Draft, but it will take time for Josh Allen to develop trust and rapport with any new wide receiver.

In the fantasy football world, patience is only sometimes our friend. For fantasy managers in a “win-now” mode, there may not be time to wait for Josh Allen to develop back into the top-rated quarterback he was when he had many weapons like he had in 2023.

Regression

Besides losing 39% of his targets and 51% of his passing touchdowns, it is extremely difficult to foresee Josh Allen replicating his 15 rushing touchdowns from 2023. In the five previous seasons (2018-2022), he averaged 7.6 rushing touchdowns. Considering the lack of playmakers down the field, it is conceivable the Bills will score less, thus giving Allen fewer goal-line opportunities to score a touchdown. 

It seems more plausible that Allen will return to his average of seven to eight rushing touchdowns per season. If that is the case, he will lose 42 fantasy points before any significant impact is determined due to the offense’s regression.

Another troubling statistic to factor into Josh Allen’s fantasy forecast is his increasing number of interceptions. From 2020 to 2024, his TD to INT ratio steadily dropped from 3.7 (2020) to 1.6 (2023). This trend could be better for a quarterback considered the best at his position. Instead, it leads many to believe this is a quarterback trending in the wrong direction, and his value may have already peaked.

Since entering the league in 2017, Josh Allen has led the NFL in interceptions with 78, two more than Derek Carr during the same span. Allen has a history of being cavalier with his passes, and it doesn’t appear that will improve with inexperienced receivers still learning the playbook and the nuisances that Allen employs. In short, the interceptions prove that Josh Allen has to be insane in other areas to negate his propensity to throw interceptions.

Reasons to Buy

Reinforcements Are on the Way

The Buffalo Bills are not entering the 2024 season with Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel as the primary receivers in this offense. Instead, they will undoubtedly address the position in the 2024 NFL draft (Xavier Worthy? Ladd McConkey?). And, with rookie receivers making impacts as early as their rookie season (Puka Nacua), it isn’t hard to believe a player can instantly enter the offense and become Josh Allen’s primary target. 

Can one draft pick make that much of a difference? In short, yes. Puka Nacua is proof of that, coming off the best rookie receiving season in the NFL’s history, with 1,486 yards. In the Super Bowl era, the next best seasons were Ja’Marr Chase in 2021 with 1,455 and Justin Jefferson in 2020 with 1,400.

In short, one rookie receiver can make a huge difference in an offense. And if the Buffalo Bills find the right player, the loss of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis can be mitigated when the right player is drafted as the new primary receiver.

In addition to a draft pick, the continued development of Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid will aid Josh Allen in maintaining his current fantasy production. In his rookie season, Kincaid had the second-most receptions on the Bills with 73 and 673 yards, while Shakir had 39 receptions for 611 yards. The Bills hope both Kincaid and Shakir are ready to absorb the production left by Diggs and Davis and elevate into Pro Bowl-level players.

 

Josh Allen: Not “Just” a Quarterback

In fantasy football, the elite quarterbacks are not usually the best quarterbacks. To be elite in fantasy, a quarterback must also provide contributions from his legs. That is why players like Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts are at the top of the fantasy quarterback hierarchy. They all provide points as runners, not just throwers. 

From 2020 to 2023, Josh Allen was the #1 fantasy quarterback three times (2023, 2021, 2020) and the #2 fantasy quarterback once (2022). In those same years, Allen amassed 2,470 yards and 36 touchdowns. If we only counted his rushing production for fantasy purposes, Allen amassed 463 fantasy points from 2020 to 2023. That would rank him as the 23rd-best running back during that span. What?!?

Allen gives fantasy managers peace of mind, knowing that he will produce as a passer and runner. As stated above, regression is inevitable at his current pace. However, I don’t want to bet against a player who has proven that, when faced with a challenge, he responds in “other-worldly” ways. In short, I’m not betting against Josh Allen.

Verdict

A lot depends on your current roster build. 

If your roster is built to win in the next two years or you are in a complete overhaul, I recommend SELLING Josh Allen. He will command a lot in return. According to our Dynasty Pros dynasty trade calculator, Josh Allen commands a trade similar to: 

Josh Allen for Jordan Love, a Mid-2024 1st and a 2025 2nd round rookie pick

OR

Josh Allen for Jordan Love and a Top 3 pick in this year’s rookie draft

At that value, I am all for moving Josh Allen to pick up an ascending quarterback in Jordan Love and adding draft picks to swing for the fences. This move gives your team a viable quarterback and draft picks to add keystones to your future roster build.

If your current roster is a year away from competing, you should keep Josh Allen. With the additions to offense anticipated over the next year, Josh Allen should return to his Top 3 form when you are ready to compete. Any trade now will set your team’s timeline back.

Final Call: SELL


There it is—the Josh Allen Dynasty Dilemma. Agree? Disagree? For more of my content, follow me on X @JGoody77 or @DynastyProsFF.

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