July 22, 2024

2024 Dynasty Dilemma: Jalen Hurts

6 min read

In the last month, I have written two Dynasty Dilemmas, both about the two players in the discussion for the overall pick in any dynasty start-up. The latest article was about Josh Allen. This dilemma has to do with Jalen Hurts and his future as a top fantasy option, not just at quarterback, but as the foundation of your dynasty roster.

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Jalen Hurts

Reasons to Buy

The Eagles are LOADED!

In short, the Philadelphia Eagles are loaded on offense. Jalen Hurts can choose between his returning teammates A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, who accounted for 246 receptions, 3,114 yards, and 17 touchdowns in 2023. Those three players comprised 70% of Hurts’ completed passes, 81% of his yards thrown, and 74% of his touchdown passes. That unit of pass-catchers is elite. 

Now, the Eagles added DeVante Parker as the third wide receiver and Saquon Barkley as the primary running back.  Every one of those players can catch a 6-yard pass and turn it into a 20-yard gain. The Eagles and Jalen Hurts have an embarrassment of riches in skill players.

 

Best Offensive Line in the Game

Did I also mention the Eagles have one of the top offensive lines in football? Yes, the Eagles are losing Jason Kelce to retirement. However, the replacement is already on the team, Cam Jurgens. Although Jurgens played guard last year, he was his draft’s top center prospect in 2022 and was drafted to replace Kelce.

This was also the same situation when the Eagles drafted Landon Dickerson in 2021, but instead, he turned into one of the league’s best left guards and just got a contract extension that solidified his value to the team. 

With Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata as bookends, Jalen Hurts will continue to have an elite offensive line protecting him while he decides whether to scamper for 12 yards or hit A.J. Brown across the middle for 24 yards. Either way, Hurts has a loaded team alongside him in the huddle, and that will ensure he remains one of the fantasy elite.

 

“Tush Push”

The most discussed play in football will be back in 2024, the Tush Push! This play produced 11 touchdowns for Jalen Hurts in 2023 and resulted in 91% of down conversions — 10% higher than traditional quarterback sneaks. In short, the Tush Push extends drives and rewards Jalen Hurts with opportunities to score touchdowns most teams would just hand off to a running back. “If it ain’t broke, why fix it?”

Reasons to Sell

Regression

In the 2023 season, Jalen Hurts threw for the most yards in his career with the most touchdowns (3,858 yards and 23 touchdowns). He also threw 15 interceptions, which is the highest total in his career. Hurts also rushed for 605 yards and 15 touchdowns. Will he be able to maintain his rushing touchdowns? I do not think so.

Although his touchdowns have increased each year, his yards per carry have decreased every year since he entered the league in 2020 (from 5.67 to 3.85 yards per carry). Did I also mention that Saquon Barkley is the new primary running back for the Eagles?

With respect to D’Andre Swift, the Eagles have never had a running back as talented as Barkley. Even though Barkley has struggled to stay healthy, the Eagles did not guarantee $37.75 million dollars to a running back they don’t plan on using a lot. 

I would imagine the vision for the offense is to use Barkley more and have Hurts be relied on less in the running game. And, although that may increase Hurts’ NFL longevity and effectiveness, for fantasy purposes, we want players that dominate the ball. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson both exemplify the mold we want in fantasy quarterbacks: they can and will rush for yards and touchdowns as the best runners in the backfield.

Although Jalen Hurts has been that player in the past, the signing of Barkley would indicate a shift in the usage of Hurts.

 

Eye Test

I write this section with full transparency: I am an Eagles fan. I watch every game. I watch every minute. And I can tell you, one of the things that angers me most about Jalen Hurts is his indifference during a game. He could lead a 12-play, 76-yard drive and throw a corner pylon touchdown to take the lead in the final seconds of a game, then look exactly the same on a three-play, seven-yard drive that ended in a punt.  There is no difference. He removes his helmet, returns to the bench, and sits there with a jacket over his shoulders. 

While some might say that a quarterback who doesn’t get “too high” or “too low” is a good thing, also accounted for in that observation are the missing coaches, backup quarterbacks, and coordinators who are usually huddled on the sideline conversing about the last drive. Nobody sits with him. They don’t talk about the defensive scheme. He doesn’t tell the play-caller what he is seeing. Nada. Zilch. Zip.

And that is why I don’t think Jalen Hurts will last very long as a top-tier quarterback in fantasy football. When a player doesn’t have a good relationship with the coordinator/play-caller, then how can the coaches possibly put him in the best situations to be successful? And if the QB prefers not to interact with teammates during a game or talk with anyone, how can those same players put it all on the line for their quarterback? They won’t.

I may be blowing this out of proportion. Perhaps Jalen Hurts is a methodical student who does an immense amount of prep work during the week, which results in fewer gameday issues. However, after a three-play drive where the offense looks puzzled, I would think he would be relaying to the coaches how the defense is disguising their coverages. Instead, he appears indifferent. And if he’s indifferent, the team around him will be too. As one of my favorite movie quotes goes: “Leadership dictates attitude.”

 

Verdict: Sell High

 

I am SELLING.

Jalen Hurts has done some phenomenal things on a football field. And, as an Eagles fan, I really hope my above concerns are just those of a typical fan. But I just can’t get the visual of Hurts on the sideline not talking to teammates or coaches as any indication that he is worth investing in as a fantasy football cornerstone.

In addition, with Saquon Barkley joining the flock, I believe the rushing touchdown regression for Hurts will be real. If we take 10 of the 15 rushing touchdowns away from Hurts, he would go from QB2 to QB6 for fantasy purposes. Fantasy Football is littered with examples of quarterbacks being elite one year, only to fall from grace and not be able to sustain that level of play in the subsequent year.

In 2022, Geno Smith finished the season as QB5. In 2023, he finished as QB19.

In 2020, Kyler Murray finished the season as QB2. In 2021, he finished as QB10.

In 2018, Matt Ryan finished the season as QB2. In 2019, he finished as QB11.

Jalen Hurts may still be productive for fantasy managers. However, at the cost of pick 1.04 in most Dynasty start ups, I would rather take Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, or CJ Stroud. All three of those players demonstrate more long-term value than Jalen Hurts. And if you currently have Hurts on your roster, you can expect a massive haul from another team in your league in a trade.

For those reasons, I am selling Jalen Hurts.


There it is—the Jalen Hurts Dynasty Dilemma. Agree? Disagree? For more of my content, follow me on X @JGoody77 and @DynastyProsFF.

Check out more of our Dynasty Dilemmas here:

[one-fourth-first] Justin Herbert
Michael Pittman Jr.[/one-fourth-first]
[one-fourth] George Pickens
Kyren Williams
[/one-fourth]
[one-fourth] Josh Allen
Christian McCaffrey
[/one-fourth]
[one-fourth] CJ Stroud[/one-fourth]