Archives for May 2023

IDP Dynasty Dilemma: Patrick Queen

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“...With the 86th pick In the 2024 Draft, the Baltimore Ravens select Trenton Simpson, linebacker, Clemson University.”

And with that sentence, everything came into focus just a few weeks later when the Ravens declined the 5th year option on Patrick Queen.

 

REASON TO BUY

After notching 117 tackles last season (his best to date), 5 sacks and 2 interceptions, one would think the Ravens would want to keep the pairing of Queen and Roquan Smith together for a long time. However, you haven’t paid attention to the Ravens lately. Of the top 10 highest paid Ravens (in relation to cap hit), only 3 of them play defense: Roquan Smith, Marlon Humphrey, and Tyus Bowswer. However, the Ravens knew they couldn’t commit a lot of money for 2024,with both Roquan Smith and Lamar Jackson’s newly signed contracts hitting the proverbial books. There is no indication from anyone from the Ravens that Queen’s option was declined because of his play. Instead, it's strictly a financial decision. His current situation is reminiscent of TJ Edwards and the Philadelphia Eagles. TJ Edwards has since signed a free agent contract with the Bears.

Patrick Queen has started every available game for the Ravens over the past three years.

And in those three years, Queen has amassed 321 total tackles, 10 sacks, 3 interceptions, and 4 forced fumbles. Those are numbers most teams would be ecstatic to have from a 23 year old linebacker. Queen is, at the very least, a solid linebacker who may make a Pro Bowl sooner rather than later. The Ravens opting to allow Queen to hit the free agent market after the 2023 season, is based on financials, not on his production. The next team that signs Patrick Queen will be getting a “star-in-the-making” when they add Queen to their defense.

 

REASON TO SELL

Yes, the Ravens declined the 5th year option on Patrick Queen. That extension would have required the Ravens to pay Queen $12 million dollars for the 2024 season. Having re-signed Roquan Smith to a contract extension worth over $100 million dollars over 5 years, it is not a shock that the Ravens did not want to commit more money to a position group when other (cheaper) options are available. Similar to running backs, linebackers have become a position that can be filled easier than many other positions in the NFL with lower-priced players. Will Patrick Queen go to another team and have the same situation like the Ravens that allows Queen to make plays?

Patrick Queen had his best year alongside a star linebacker. Will his next team be willing to spend money on a contract for a player that needs to be a “Robin” not a “Batman”? The success of the players that had their 5th year option declined is not good. The group for 2017 included: Malik Hooker, Jarrad Davis, Charles Harris, Gareon Conley, Tak McKinley, and Reuben Foster. From 2018, the defensive players not receiving an option were: Leighton Vander Esch, Rashaan Evans, Terrell Edmunds and Mike Hughea. The 2019 group included: Clelin Ferrel, Devin Bush, and Jerry Tillery, None of the lists includes a player of Patrick Queen’s quality. Devin Bush may be the closest comparable player to Queen from any of the list. Both Bush and Queen play linebacker and both have recorded more than 250 tackles in their careers. Bush signed a 1 year deal with the Seahawks in hopes to prove his worth. The rest of the defensive players listed have had minimal success in the NFL. Which also raises the question: If Queen is that good, why are the Ravens letting him walk? The Ravens may know something about Queen other teams will have to pay to find out. For a player managers want to invest in for IDP, it makes you wonder why a team is willing to let a player go and test free agency.

 

VERDICT

Patrick Queen is a solid linebacker. For IDP purposes, he is among the top 20 linebackers in the league and should continue that way for the foreseeable future.
I hope his contract situation doesn’t affect his mental state and he continues to perform like the fringer Pro-Bowler that he currently acts like. For your team, I love Patrick Queen as a 2nd or 3rd option at linebacker. He may never be a top LB option in IDP, but he will certainly be a solid depth choice for your roster. If a team is willing to part with him as Trenton Simpson looms to replace him, take the risk in acquiring Patrick Queen and I am confident you will be paid handsomely in the end.

Buy Patrick Queen!

IDP Dynasty Dilemma: Jalen Ramsey

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The title of “Best Cornerback in the League” (BCL) is not necessarily defined by statistics, but by the respect quarterbacks show by not throwing to his receiver when he is covered by a great cornerback. The title of BCL has belonged to NFL greats such as: Deion Sanders, Darrelle Revis, Charles Woodson, Darrell Green, and more recently Jalen Ramsey.

In this IDP Dynasty Dilemma, we will analyze Jalen Ramsey and if he is still a valuable commodity as an IDP contributor in your leagues.

 

REASON TO BUY

If we look at just 2022, Jalen Ramsey had nine games with double-digit fantasy points; highlighted by week 18 when Ramsey had 5 tackles and 2 interceptions. Jalen Ramsey concluded the 2022 season as the #5 rated defensive back in fantasy football. Those are the types of numbers that many people who build an IDP defensive back group around. And his 2021 numbers were not all that different from 2022.

Jalen Ramsey was recently traded to the Miami Dolphins and his new team will prove to be a godsend to Ramsey. With Xavien Howard as the other cornerback, teams won’t shy away from Ramsey’s side of the field; as teams did when he was with the Rams And with Jevon Holland monitoring the field behind him, Ramsey can take some risks; which may lead to more interceptions. The fit for Ramsey in Miami is tremendous. With Ramsey still performing at a high level, and a defensive backfield skilled enough to prevent opposing teams from shying away from Ramsey, this year could be Jalen Ramsey’s best yet in terms of IDP production.

 

 

REASON TO SELL

When you are one of the best cornerbacks in the league, you tend to see quarterbacks target the other side of the field. That just makes common sense when one side of the field is patrolled by one of the best corners in the league, and the other side is not. Last year saw Ramsey’s tackle numbers ascend to their highest total yet, 88 total tackles. That is because the Rams were a joke on defense last year and Ramsey was forced to make plays all over the field. After being traded to the Dolphins in the offseason, I don’t see Ramsey having as many opportunities this year; last year may have been the pinnacle of his IDP career. And if it was, that means his career is now on the down slope. Ramsey has never posted high interception numbers. Teams were smart enough to exploit the other side of the field when Ramsey was patrolling his side. In IDP it is paramount for any IDP contributor to have opportunities to perform; especially defensive backs. I doubt Ramsey will have the same opportunities in recreating last year’s totals as a Ram.

Ramsey is still a VERY GOOD football player. That doesn’t always mean Ramsey will be a good fantasy football player. I believe Ramsey’s best IDP days are behind him and, with the reduced opportunities being on a better team, will show that this year.

VERDICT

Jalen Ramsey is an example of a football player being great on the field and good in IDP. I would not build my IDP roster of DB’s around Ramsey. The opportunities are greater for players like Jalen Pitre, Budda Baker, and Derwin James. All of them have the freedom to roam around the football field and make plays; both in the secondary and behind the line of scrimmage. If your league must start cornerbacks, then yes, Jalen Ramsey should be rostered. However, if your IDP settings only list DB’s, I would take chances with tackle-producing safeties before taking Jalen Ramsey (or most other cornerbacks). Playing IDP is not about drafting names you know. Instead, you need to follow snap share, positional flexibility, and how players are used on the field. With all that said, Jalen Ramsey does not seem poised to recreate his numbers from last year.

My advice is to sell Jalen Ramsey for IDP purposes.

Dynasty Deathmatch: IDP Rookies

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IDP Rookie Death Match

 

I thought it would be fun to pose head to head matchups between rookies for IDP purposes. I polled Twitterverse for their opinions, and this is how they voted. I provided my own personal take on the match up with some analysis and insight. Sometimes I agreed and other times I disagreed with the Twitterverse. Let’s check out the battles and how they voted!

Here are the battles:

 

Trenton Simpson vs. Dorian Williams (83% Simpson)

The Twitterverse selected Trenton Simpson as the winner in one of the few landslides the voters created with their decisions. However, the answer is not so obvious. IF the Ravens hold on to Patrick Queen this season, I am not 100% sure Simpson is on the field enough to make that type of impact; Simpson is certainly not pushing Roquan Smith for playing time. As of now, Dorian Williams has an easier path to minutes with Edmunds signing a free agent contract with the Chicago Bears. In this battle, I would have chosen Dorian Williams. I believe his team and likelihood of a snap share over 55% would provide enough opportunity to score more IDP points this year over Simpson. I love Trenton Simpson’s long term potential, but this battle was about this year. So, for those reasons, Williams is my winner.

 

Daiyan Henley vs. Dorian Williams (80% for Henley)

Again, the Twitterverse went against Williams; this time voting for Daiyan Henely . And again, a player that does not have a clear path to minutes was voted the winner by the fans. Of the three, Henley, Williams, and Simpson, I believe Henley to currently have the most opposition to minutes. Again, IDP is all about playing time. If you are not on the field, you can’t accrue points. I would also select Williams in this match up. If the Chargers make any cuts and Henley has a clearer path to minutes, then I would have to reconsider. For now, Dorian Williams is my pick to amass more IDP points with his current situation. And, I would like to stress this again: This poll does not measure the overall future prospects. Instead, we are gauging the impact for this year. And, for this year, I see Henley’s path to minutes impeded by more established players on the Chargers.

 

Christian Gonzalez vs. Deonte Banks (75% for Gonzalez)

The Twitterverse selected Christian Gonzalez. This is another interesting match up. I believe Gonzalez to be the better player, and has the better long term potential as an IDP contributor. However, Deonte Banks has a “Sauce Gardner” vibe to him in regards to making plays and converting them into pick-sixes. Saying all that, I believe Gonzalez was the right choice. The only way for Banks to outscore Gonzalez is if he has 5 to 7 interceptions and returns half of them for touchdowns. That is too much of a “hot take” to predict that type of first year explosion for a cornerback. I believe Gonzalez is a perfect fit for the Patriots and will probably log 50 to 60 tackles.

 

Lukas Van Ness vs. Nolan Smith (62% for Van Ness)

I respect our followers on Twitter for not getting swayed by Nolan Smith’s “value” as he was selected as the 30th pick in the 1st round. Nolan Smith was lucky to get drafted by a team that does not need him to be a superstar right away. With Haason Reddick, Brandon Graham, and Josh Sweat, the Eagles only need Smith to be a rotational player this year. In Lukas Van Ness’ situation, he will be relied on to be more than that for the Packers. And with more playing time, comes more opportunity to be IDP relevant. I believe both players have bright futures ahead of them; I just see Van Ness accelerating that future and performing in 2023.

 

Jalen Carter vs Tyree Wilson (53% for Carter)

As stated above about Nolan Smith, Jalen Carter will not be counted on to be an instant impact player this year. The Eagles have Fletcher Cox, Jordan Davis, Milton Williams already in a rotation at DT and Jalen Carter will only be used in certain packages. For that reason, I don't anticipate Jalen Carter to make an immediate impact as a rookie. Instead, I believe Carter will have some flashes of greatness. Tyree Wilson, on the other hand, looks to be set for a rotation with Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby; mostly subbing for Jones. I can see Wilson, with approximately 50% snap share recording 5 to 8 sacks. I think this battle will be close, I believe Tyree Wilson will slightly outscore Jalen Carter.

 

Brian Branch vs Joey Porter (64% Branch)

The Twitterverse has spoken, and I believe this to be the most egregious result of our little experiment. I believe Brian Branch is going to struggle to get on the field for the Lions to start the season. Cameron Sutton, CJ Gardner Johnson, Kerby Joseph, Emmanuel Moseley, and Tracy Walker all provide obstacles toward Branch seeing significant time in the Lions defensive backfield. Joey Porter has a clearer path to playing time; either at corner or safety. Based on that, I believe Joey Porter will have a better first year as an IDP contributor. Brian Branch could see a HUGE bump in playing time if one of his teammates in the defensive backfield is traded away or cut. If that’s the case, he may be a better choice over Porter. However, I don’t believe the Lions are currently looking to cut away the experience they have amassed on defense.

 

Calijah Kancey vs. Mazi Smith (70% for Kancey)

Rumor has it that the Buccaneers were all ready to take Jack Campbell until the Lions drafted him before the Buccaneers. Instead, Tampa Bay drafted Kancey to help fortify the defensive line. A lot of comparisons between Kancey and Aaron Donald have surfaced. However, I don’t believe Kancey will meet that lofty expectation in year one. Mazi Smith was drafted by the Cowboys to help collapse the pocket and allow the edge rushers more one-on-one matchups with the guards. I believe Mazi Smith may be a more impactful player to the Cowboys defense, but I agree with the Twitterverse that Kancey will have more IDP points this year. Kancey is currently listed as an edge rusher for the Buccaneers and that playing time will allow him to rack up 4 to 7 sacks and 40 to 50 tackles as he sets the edge.

 

Jack Campbell vs. Will Anderson (Campbell 55%)

In our final IDP Death Match, I decided to poll Twitterverse on their opinions for the top overall IDP Rookie for 2023. As of now, the general population has Campbell and Anderson as the top two IDP rookies. After the poll was completed, Twitterverse was in favor of Jack Campbell at 55%. Will Anderson is a tremendous player that will help lead the Texans defense for the next ten years. Jack Campbell, shockingly, was drafted by the Lions and addressed a huge need;albeit a bit early for a middle linebacker by NFL standards. Either way, both players look to post solid numbers for rookies in IDP scoring. Anderson should post 40 to 50 tackles, with 7 to 10 tackles for loss and 8 to 10 sacks. Campbell could eclipse the 100 tackle mark as a middle linebacker. I also see Campbell’s 6’4” frame knocking down a few passes and grabbing 1 or 2 interceptions. I also see Campbell notching 2 to 4 sacks with 4 to 6 tackles for loss. Campbell and Anderson will battle for the title of the TOP IDP ROOKIE for 2023. And at the conclusion of the season, I stand alongside the Twitterverse and anoint Campbell as the top rookie.

 

Needless to say, this year’s crop of defensive talent will infuse a lot of energy into the IDP world. With the additions of Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, Christian Gonzalez, Joey Porter and others, the future of IDP looks strong with this crop of rookies.

Any future IDP star you would like to see in a Death Match?

Check me out on Twitter and let’s put it to a debate!

Dynasty Dilemma: Isaiah Likely

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Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely was one of the more pleasant surprises in fantasy football in 2022. By no means was he a serviceable week-to-week option, but his emergence and flashes of brilliance during periods where Mark Andrews was banged up, not fully available, or just splitting snaps gave us a glimpse into what the future might hold for Likely moving forward.

There was perhaps no finer display of Likely's talent than in Baltimore's Week 17 game against the Bengals. In that contest, he hauled in eight balls for 103 yards on 13 targets while Andrews was sidelined. That stat line is eerily similar to Andrews' production in his best games.

 

During the 2022 season, the Ravens' tight ends had an overall target share of nearly 44 percent. Most of that share went to Andrews, who had 113 of the team’s 465 total targets on his own. Likely finished 3rd on the team in targets with 60. The Ravens targeted their tight ends an NFL-high 204 times in 2022.

Enter Todd Monken and his offensive scheme.

Monken will take over play-calling duties in Baltimore after back-to-back national titles at Georgia in the same role.

Much like the Ravens, Georgia’s receiving corps was good, but not great. Their tight ends, however, were elite. As a result, Monken frequently deployed a two tight end set that wreaked havoc on opposing defenses. The top two Georgia tight ends – Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington – finished first and fourth respectively in terms of most receiving yards on the team.

Between the offense the Ravens ran in 2022 being their foundation, and the offense Monken is in the process of installing, the tight end position is going to continue to demand a high volume of targets in the passing game. Additionally, there’s a pretty good chance we see an increase in Isaiah Likely’s total snap count, which should also yield an increase in targets.

Beyond 2023, ages and contracts are going to work in Likely’s favor.

Mark Andrews will turn 28 at the beginning of the season and has 3 years left on his current contract. It’s a safe bet that he’ll be out of Baltimore after the 2025 season. It’s also a safe bet that we’ve probably already seen the best of Andrews. Sure, Travis Kelce is still going strong, but he's the exception to the rule. Kelce is one of only three NFL tight ends over the age of 30 currently at the top of their respective depth charts. The other two are Darren Waller and Zach Ertz, who are both past their prime.

Isaiah Likely just turned 23 in April and is in year two of a $4.16 million dollar (total) rookie contract. Any way you cut it, Likely is postured to be the tight end of the future in an offense designed to protect the quarterback and funnel targets to tight ends.

 

 

We still haven't seen Isaiah Likely play as a full-time starter for an entire season. There's a chance he just happened to make the most of his limited opportunities in 2022.

Baltimore added Odell Beckham Jr. this offseason. They also drafted Zay Flowers. Additionally, Rashod Bateman was one of most talented receivers to come out of the last three NFL Drafts.

Bateman's 2022 season was shortened due to injury. There's a chance he blows up in 2023 if he's fully healthy. And Flowers has drawn comparisons to Antonio Brown. If both receivers reach their full potential, the Ravens could have one of the best duos in the league at the position moving forward. And that doesn't even take into account the chance of Odell Beckham returning to peak form in 2023.

That's the sort of upgrade at wide receiver that can change an offensive game plan, if not an entire scheme. Whoever lines up at tight end could become the third or fourth option in the passing game -- and possibly an afterthought in the years to come.

You might have an owner in your league who is hurting at the tight end position and desperately needs some depth. If you own Likely and have other viable options at the position, you could end up cashing in on his potential in order to improve your roster elsewhere.

 

Isaiah Likely is a young, talented tight end playing in an offense that will cater to his skill set. That alone gives him streaming value. He's also one injury away from becoming the primary tight end in the Baltimore offense, which would position him to be one of the most productive tight ends in the NFL. He's about as low-risk, high-reward as you can get right now outside of spending a late rookie pick on the position in 2023. If you already have him, hold onto him. If you can get him for a late-round 2024 pick, it's worth it.

 

Devy Minute: Bo Nix

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Devy Minute: Bo Nix

By Jonathan Walker

 

After three seasons with the Auburn Tigers, quarterback Bo Nix transferred to the University of Oregon in 2022. In his first season at Oregon, Nix led the Ducks to a 9-3 record culminating with a victory in the Holiday Bowl against the University of North Carolina. During his three years at Auburn, Bo Nix finished with a 21-18 record but never passed for over 2,600 yards or exceeded 17 touchdowns in a single season. 

However, in 2022 with Oregon, Nix would enter Autzen Stadium and become a whole new quarterback for the Oregon Ducks. During his 1st season as the Duck's quarterback, he passed for almost 3,600 yards; shattering the previous year's totals. He would also throw for a total of 29 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions. 

In addition to his passing abilities, Nix ran the ball for a total of 510 yards with 14 touchdowns. As Nix enters his second season with the Ducks, Troy Franklin returns as his main receiving target. In Franklin, Nix benefits from having a true game-breaker on the outside catching the passes he throws.

 

 

With the high-powered Oregon offense, Bo Nix prepares to rocket himself into the discussion as one of the top quarterbacks for the 2024 NFL draft. If Bo Nix continues his upward trajectory, as he did in 2022, he is going to be the face of the quarterback position in college football. If Nix can continue to grow his chemistry with his wide receivers, the sky is the limit to how high Nix's ceiling can be. 

My favorite game from the 2022 season is when the #10 Oregon Ducks took on the #9 UCLA Bruins on Oct 22, Bo Nix threw for 283 yards bringing in 5 passing touchdowns, while going 22-38 (83.6% passer rating) Nix also ran for 51 yards. He led the Ducks to a 45-30 victory over their conference rival, but it was not just about how he could throw the ball, it was about how he could command his team and wide receivers down the field. Bo took over the Oregon Ducks and made it HIS team during the game and showed that he is capable of leading a team from the first to the last whistle. 

Bo Nix made several good reads all throughout the game, he did not put himself or the Ducks in a position where they were in jeopardy. He showed the true mindset of a leader, which every NFL team is searching for in their quarterback. 

In addition to his draft status, Bo could very well put his name in the top 3 for the Heisman in 2023 if he stays on the path he has already set in front of himself. Meaning that if Bo can continue to excel at Oregon, he can be one of, if not the best QB in the 2023 season of college. He could also move his draft position to the #1 Quarterback drafted in the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

 

 

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Nico Collins

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Nico Collins is a divisive player at the moment. The believers still believe he will show something and use his age (24) to their advantage. While the doubters will use his injury history and stats against him. Drafted in the 3rd round in 2021, we learn every draft class that draft capital matters, but so does on field production. The capital is there so are the stats? In 24 career games he has 70 receptions 927 yards and 3 touchdowns. The best way I can describe Nico Collins is he reminds me a lot of Marvin Mims in this draft class, not by the RAS or body type, but by how people view him. If you like Mims, you like him and will die on that hill, if you don’t you let those people ramble on and let them take him. I feel Nico Collins was that same type of player coming out of Michigan.

Nico has played his two years so far in Houston and has never really had a good quarterback. (Whole other article can be written about Davis Mills.) With only Brandin Cooks the prime receiver, Collins was primed to be the WR2 and let them move on from Cooks so he could be the WR1. Injuries never really let that happen. With that being said he can still surprise us because of a few reasons.

 

Some reasons to buy is the signing of Robert Woods. I know, I know, Woods has disappointed us all last year, he burned me too, but hear me out. The Woods signing wasn't because they needed a receiver. They brought in Woods because they knew he can be the veteran leadership they need in that wide receiver room. Woods is the “seasoned” vet in that room and he can teach all of the wide receivers how to be a pro and that is one of the biggest reasons why this is a good thing for Collins. I believe he hasn’t had someone in the locker room to hold him accountable and Woods will do just that.

The other reason to buy is CJ Stroud. Texans fans, and all NFL fans alike, Houston finally got their quarterback. CJ Stroud was the best pocket passer coming out of the draft and landed here. Collins knows he is on the hot seat based on the other receivers on the roster (we will get to that soon) and will need to build a relationship early and often with Stroud. If the quarterback buys into what you are doing. This is the best step in the right direction. If he takes the feedback from a veteran receiver who has won a superbowl, has had injuries, and been on multiple teams; and gets reps in the offseason with the quarterback and makes him a must have. Collins could definitely become a buy.

 

We will start with the elephant in the room. This elephant is also the most predominant sell reason of the offseason. Nico Collins can rarely ever stay healthy. In 2022, he played 10 games and started 7 of them, and 2021 was a little better with 14 games played and 8 starts. He needs to be on the field, and the tape he has on the field, although not much, needs to have the new coaching staff buy in to him. WIth career stats of Adam Thielens worst statical year coming in the span of 2 years doesn’t help his cause.

Speaking of the new coaching staff, they didn't hesitate to bring in weapons. We have already talked about Robert Woods and with the guys that they brought/got back, Woods is the only buy for Collins. I don’t think there is any way Collins misses the team, but with the Texans getting John Metchie back into the mix, and drafting Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, (LINK Rookie Spotlight, please)(who you know I’ve loved this whole draft process), and Xavier Hutchinson.

The writing could be on the wall for Collins. Nice may end up not having a role because Metchie is an intermediate route and deep route threat. Dell is your swiss army knife and route running specialist, and Hutchinson is the possession big body receiver you would want. The new coaching staff will probably go with their draft picks and former first round pick in Metchie and let Collins walk. We didn't even mention Dalton Schultz who will also take catches away from the dwindling role Collins could have.

 

The fact is, Nico Collins is the definition of the Dynasty Dilemma. Find the Collins truther and get him off your team if you can, because he is aged out of most taxi squads now and the question to ask is. Is he a reliable bench player or can you find a different plug and play bye week hero? I believe you can find a new option (Marvin Mims in rookie drafts). He is a guy that I have been trying to trade for a rookie 3rd or 4th round pick to start over or just dropping all together.

In redraft formats, he will be virtually undrafted unless youre in a league deeper than a 12 teams. Otherwise, put him back on waivers and if you lose out on the one week he produces, so be it. This is one that didn’t hit, and that’s ok. That's why we have a rookie draft every year to try to find the hidden gem.