Archives for April 2022

The Devy Minute: Braelon Allen

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The Devy Minute: Braelon Allen

By Tommy Harvey

Braelon Allen

RB 

6’2 238lbs

Ron Dayne, Montee Ball, James White, Melvin Gordon, Jonathan Taylor, and now…Braelon Allen.  The Freshman RB had a breakout season for the Badgers in 2021, with over 1,200 yards and 12 TDs.  Initially expected to share carries with Chez Mellusi and Jalen Berger, Allen emerged as a dominant force after Mellusi was injured and Berger was dismissed from the team.  

Out of high school, Allen was a Safety and Runningback with many projections seeing him as a Linebacker.  He quickly showed he was suited for the offensive backfield. His 6.8 yards per carry finished tied for 3rd in the country among RBs with over 100 carries with TreVeyon Henderson out of Ohio State.  He also finished 3rd in the Big 10 with 1,268 yards rushing.

Headed into his Sophomore season, Allen is an early favorite for the Heisman Trophy.  Currently tied for 12th at +3300 (according to Bovada), the Badger RB is certainly expected to have another huge season.  Allen is my overall RB3 and is my RB2 for the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

Follow me on Twitter @DynastyProsTom

 

Dynasty Dilemma: Tee Higgins

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Dynasty Dilemma: Tee Higgins

By Darren Smith

 

The NFL draft is rapidly approaching. This year, there is a stacked wide receiver class that is about to enter the NFL. Some of these guys like Garrett Wilson, Treylon Burks, Drake London, Chris Olave, and Jameson Williams will become fantasy studs - but a few of them are bound to bust. Most of the time with 1st round draft picks, my strategy is to trade them for players that have already broken out to completely avoid a bust pick. One guy that I have been seeing get traded around for 1st round picks often (including myself) has been Bengals WR, Tee Higgins.

But what about Ja’Marr Chase? Isn’t he the WR1 on the Bengals? Yes, yes he is. In fact, he is the consensus WR #1 in most dynasty rankings. Due to Chase’s price being so high, value might be found in his counterpart. Let’s break down Tee Higgins to see if he should be a 

Dynasty Buy or Sell.

Situation

The Cincinnati Bengals are an up and coming team as they just had their first Super Bowl appearance since 1988. Quarterback Joe Burrow is a star in the making, throwing over 4,600 yards and 34 touchdowns in 2021. The Bengals have made a point in free agency to protect Burrow, which has been a main concern since he was drafted. With offensive line signings such as OT La’el Collins, OG Alex Cappa, and C Ted Karras, Burrow should feel more comfortable in the pocket and be able to have time to get the ball out quickly and accurately. This can only benefit his receivers. The Bengals offense is trending in the right direction, making Tee Higgins situation feel safe as we know they have a franchise QB that they are building around. 

Volume

Tee Higgins broke out his rookie season in 2020 scoring 194 fantasy points in PPR leagues with 108 targets and 67 receptions. These are pretty solid numbers for just a 21 year old rookie WR. Dynasty managers were comfortable with his position, until the Bengals took Ja’Marr Chase 5th overall in 2021. Being a WR2 on a team lowers value to fantasy managers as they believe the WR1 will take away volume and “steal targets” from them. This isn’t always the case. 

With Chase being added to the Bengals, Higgins' targets in 2021 actually increased from 2020, all while playing two less games due to minor injury. Chase is obviously a huge deep threat, which actually opens up targets underneath for Higgins to grab. From Week 12 on, Higgins had 50 targets, and Chase had less at 45.

Efficiency

As the 2021 season progressed, Higgins' efficiency only got better. From Week 12 forward, Higgins average depth of target was 12.57 yards. This is actually higher than Chase’s average depth of target, who is supposedly the one to stretch the field. Once Tee catches the ball, he gets down field quickly. Higgins’ average yards per catch after Week 12 was an astonishing 17.58 yards, compared to Chase’s 13.97. 

In Week 16, Higgins scored a whopping 43.4 points and had 13 targets with 12 receptions for 194 yards and two touchdowns. This gives you a glimpse of his ceiling even while being considered the WR2 on the team. To prove even further that Chase doesn’t have a huge effect on Higgins - Chase had 19.5 points on 125 yards in that same week. They can both have top WR numbers in the same game.

 

Snap Count

While Tee is efficient, he doesn’t see the field 100% of the time. Higgins snap count did increase throughout the 2021 season ranging from a mere 57% up to 87%. This shouldn’t be a huge red flag, but other top receivers can play close to 95% of the snaps. For now, we can not expect him to be an every down receiver.

Touchdowns

Touchdowns are a big part of scoring in fantasy football. Higgins scored 6 touchdowns in 2021, with only 4 of them coming in the Red Zone. You can’t expect Tee to be a Mike Evans type and be a touchdown machine - however he did have 15 targets in the Red Zone which ranks 39th overall in the NFL in 2021. This is yet again ahead of Ja’Marr Chase (44th), but still not a satisfying statistic. With the Bengals building a solid offense, I only see Red Zone opportunities increasing for all Bengals receivers, but we have to temper expectations with Joe Mixon taking a decent amount of carries near the goal line.

Dynasty Value

While there aren't too many reasons to sell Higgins based on his performance, his consensus ranking and dynasty value can make a case to sell. Higgins is listed as a top 12 receiver in most of the top viewed dynasty rankings, however he finished as the WR #24 in PPR leagues. This means you can sell Higgins for someone that historically scores more points than him, plus some additional pieces. For example, Keenan Allen outscored Higgins in 2021, but most managers would probably give him and a 2nd round rookie pick for Higgins. While I don’t think Tee is overvalued, if you need to expand your team at other positions he can be sold at a premium for some valuable pieces.

 

As you can see, Dynasty managers should not at all be concerned with Ja’Marr Chase taking away volume from Tee Higgins. He is a stand alone receiver on the Bengals that had higher efficiency numbers than Chase, and if anything should be considered the 1B to Chase’s 1A. The Bengals offense is set to explode yet again in 2022 with Burrow leading the helm. Higgins’ only pain points are with snap count and touchdowns, which could easily increase this season. While the price may be high (but fair), Higgins value will only increase from now on. Now is the time to buy Higgins. My money is where my mouth is - I traded 1.10 and a ‘23 1st for him last month, and I have seen him go for even higher than that in other leagues.

 

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @FFBirdGang

Dynasty Dilemma: Marquise Hollywood Brown

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Dynasty Dilemma: Marquise Hollywood Brown

By Ryan Ramsarran

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. The newest Arizona Cardinal. On the first night of the 2022 Draft, there was a shocking trade that saw the Cardinals send their first round pick (23rd overall) for Marquise Brown and a third round pick (100th overall). A lot of people are now wondering what they should do with their Hollywood shares and where his value is at this point.

 

 

Brown has been in the league for three years now and has improved year after year. He’s been a great receiver and was the clear WR1 on the Ravens. He went from 584 receiving yards in Year 1, 769 yards in Year 2, to 1008 yards last year. Brown had earned the trust of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens as a whole, and commanded 145 targets last year - in an offense that is usually very run heavy (Ravens were 3rd in rushing yards last year among all teams in NFL). 

Brown commanded a 26.7% target share last year (tied for 10th highest in the league). Being only 24 years old and getting over a quarter of the team's targets is a terrific feat. As for now, going to the Cardinals he may not see a huge target share like before but he may get a lot more quality passes from Kyler Murray than he did from Lamar Jackson. Kyler had the 2nd highest completion percentage in the league last year (69.2 %) and was tied for 1st in deep ball completion percentage (50%). 

Christian Kirk led the Cardinals in targets last year with 103, and departed this offseason to sign with the Jaguars. There's a huge opening in the offense and Brown will be able to carve out a role right from the start. Brown actually already has a great rapport with Murray from playing together in college. In their last year together at Oklahoma - Brown finished with 75 receptions for 1318 yards and 10 touchdowns. Hopkins, Ertz, and AJ Green are all over 29 years old and Brown should be able to eventually become the top target on the team as the others age out.

 

The Cardinals ranked 18th in total passing attempts last year. Their run game was very successful (led by James Conner & Chase Edmonds) which resulted in the team finishing 7th in total rushing attempts and 10th in rushing yards. Kyler also likes to spread the ball around. The highest total target share last year among the Cardinals receivers was 18% (Christian Kirk) which was slightly inflated due to Hopkins missing 7 games, and Ertz missing the first 6 games (was traded mid-season to Arizona). There is a lot more competition for targets in Arizona as they have Hopkins, Ertz, Green, Moore, and newly drafted standout TE Trey McBride joining the fold as well. Brown is very unlikely to repeat his 26.7% target share he had on the Ravens, and will likely be stuck behind Hopkins for targets. 

Brown also has not signed an extension yet. Granted, he’s only been on the team for a couple of days but AJ Brown was traded during the first round as well and signed a $100M contract right away. Tyreek Hill was also traded this offseason and got an extension that same day. Arizona was not willing to pay Christian Kirk which resulted in him signing with Jacksonville (for a contract worth $18M per year - which ultimately frenzied the WR market). There are reports that Arizona will be picking up the fifth-year option on Browns' contract - as they did with Kyler Murray as well, and will wait until next year to decide if they will offer an extension or not.  

 

 

Hollywood is a great receiver and was a great WR1 for the Ravens. He should be able to slide right into the WR2 role on the Cardinals with the possibility of becoming the WR1 in the future. He’s going to be playing with a much more accurate QB who he already has some great rapport with and will easily become one of the focal points of the offense.

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @RyanR_FF

Dynasty Dilemma: Derrick Henry

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Dynasty Dilemma: Derrick Henry

By Alex French

 

The NFL draft is just a couple days away, which means your rookie drafts are quickly approaching. With this in mind, it's time to figure out if your team is ready to. Win now, or if you’re building for the future. So, it’s time to evaluate those veterans and roster spots to determine what lies in the future. Today, we take a look at what to do with former NFL rushing champion, Derrick Henry.

 

First and foremost, it’s important to self-evaluate. This can be difficult, but it's important to be as honest as possible with your team evaluation. Some NFL teams even struggle with this, however, if you’re able to do it correctly, success is in the future. So, are you in a position to make a run at the title in your league? Or are you in a position where you might make the playoffs? Alternatively, are you a team that would be competing for that first overall pick in the 2023 rookie draft? Once you’ve determined which category your team fits, the dilemma becomes much clearer. If your evaluation leads you to the ladder, and your poised for a title run now, maybe you want to consider acquiring Henry. Let’s evaluate further.

By far one of the best overall athletes in the entire league,Henry defied the odds last season. In 2020,Henry rushed for over 2000 yards with 17 touchdowns. Incredibly, in 2021, he was on pace to do it again before his season was cut short by a foot fracture.  In previous seasons, a foot fracture was more often than not a season ending injury, yet Henry refused to let that happen. He returned for the Tennessee Titans playoff game. He managed 62 yards and. A touchdown, but it wasn’t enough. The fact Henry returned at all is encouraging for fantasy managers looking at their title chances in 2022. If you have a later round rookie pick, it will likely help your team less than what Henry represents. This is where self evaluation becomes critical. If you’re looking at a youth filled roster, or maybe one where you don’t really have studs anywhere you may want to consider the opposite side and read the following paragraphs.  As a contender, you can be encouraged that Henry was off to an incredible start with 937 rushing yards in just eight games. He also chipped in 154 receiving yards. Despite playing in just eight games, he still finished at RB22 on the season. Interestingly enough, he was also on pace to have a career best 42.5 receptions. With newly acquired Robert Woods coming off a late season ACL tear, the Titans may need Henry to catch passes again. As a contender, make your move during the rookie draft to acquire Henry.

 

 

That all being said, there are still health concerns here. As good as Henry was for your fantasy team, he missed more than half the season with a foot fracture. As we;’ve seen in many cases before, this can be a lingering issue. Of course Henry came back for the Titans playoff game, but he clearly wasn’t himself with just 62 yards. Henry has seen an incredible workload over his career, and it's entirely possible it's catching up with him. In addition, Henry is already an outlier from a production standpoint. He continues to be a top fantasy running back despite his lackluster usage in the passing game. Running backs see their production fall off quite significantly after turning 26, and Henry just turned 28. With running backs, it's always better to get out a year too early than a year too late, think Todd Gurley. Gurley was risky due to a well documented knee issue, but let me ask you, is a foot injury all that different? I think now is the time to trade him away. It’s entirely possible to imagine Henry having a top 20 finish at the position, but that’s a risk I’m willing to accept. 

 

So if he’s a trade candidate, what do we do? Well, there’s a few ways to approach the situation. As mentioned previously, rookie draft season is right around the corner. It’s not unreasonable to ask for a first rounder for Henry. I would look to target your favorite back in this class. If that happens to be Breece Hall, you may have to add your own picks to swing a trade as Hall is currently the first pick of rookie drafts. If you’ve had Henry on your team though, chances are you have a later round pick. I’d be willing to offer a late first and Henry for the 1.01 if that may be enough. If not, Kenneth Walker has been receiving a lot of hype lately, and has an incredible athletic profile as well. His current ADP is pick 3. That may be much more attainable. 

This may be an unpopular opinion, and it's certainly risky, but a 28 year old running back coming off a foot fracture, with the workload of Derrick Henry, is more risk than I’m willing to take. In order for Henry to hit value going as the fourth overall pick, you need an outlier season of close to league lead in rushing yards and likely 12 or more touchdowns. Pair that with how little passing game work Henry gets, and you’re already asking for a lot. Add in returning from a foot fracture, and you’re approaching something close to hitting on a 5 tier parlay. That’s not a gamble I’m willing to take. 

 

Check out all our other great content on the website, and you can find me on Twitter @TheBlindGuyFF

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Dynasty Deathmatch: Chase vs. Jefferson

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Dynasty Deathmatch: Ja'Marr Chase vs Justin Jefferson

By Ryan Ramsarran

Jefferson versus Chase has been a long debate throughout this offseason regarding  who is the overall WR1 in Dynasty right now. Once teammates at LSU, to now competitors, these two players are young, talented and will be top of their game for the next decade. Both have reasons for being considered the Overall WR1 in Dynasty.

Ja’Marr Chase

Ja’Marr Chase showed he was an elite talent right from his first NFL game. During Week 1 in a game against the Vikings, he had 5 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown, which included a huge 50 yard touchdown. Chase set some impressive records this year, including having the most receiving yards in a season by a rookie (since the beginning of the Super Bowl Era) with 1455 yards. He also set the record for most reception yards in a game by a rookie with 266 yards. Chase was 4th overall among receivers in yards per target (17.19), and was third in touchdowns (14) last year. Chase put up elite numbers in his ROOKIE season and is going to be an absolute star. He finished as the WR5 in PPR leagues and was WR3 in standard leagues along with winning Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Chase is tied to a great young quarterback in Joe Burrow, and they are coming off a Super Bowl appearance last season. Burrow and Chase already had a ton of chemistry from their time in LSU and are clearly going to be one of the most iconic  QB-WR duos in the NFL for years to come. There were a lot of plays last year (including one on the LAST PLAY of the Super Bowl) where Chase is wide open but Burrow didn't have enough time to throw the ball. The Bengals know they have an Offensive Line problem and will work to solve it this offseason. Once they do,  Burrow will have a much easier time getting the ball in Chase’s hands. 

 

Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson has been making headlines ever since the infamous Jalen Reagor pick right before him by the Eagles in the 2020 draft, which had the entire NFL community shocked. Fast Forward to today: Jefferson has set a record as the only wide receiver EVER to have 3000 receiving yards in their first two seasons in the NFL. Needless to say, Jefferson is an absolute target monster. 

Last year, he ranked 4th overall in total targets (167) and was 3rd highest in team target share percentage at 29.9%. Jefferson has a very steady amount of targets resulting in a much safer floor than Chase. Chase only had a 24.1% target share (7.5 targets per game) - a big part of that being Tee Higgins presence on the offense (7.9 targets per game in 14 games played). Jefferson is the clear alpha on the Vikings, and the passing game entirely revolves around him. Chase also relied a little more on big plays last year whereas Jefferson had a steady 9.8 targets & 95 yards per game. Jefferson is a PPR cheat code and will easily be a top-5 receiver for years to come. Jefferson finished his first two years as the WR6 and WR4 in fantasy. He’s been a star right from the get go and will continue to be a top tier talent for years to come. 

 

Final Thoughts

This battle will continue on for a very long time. These are 2 of the best receivers in the game right now, and they are both under 24 years old. At this point, Jefferson has given us a 2 year sample of his abilities and fantasy production. He also has a much safer floor than Chase due to his very high target share (+ his higher total targets & targets per game) and lack of reliance on big plays. Chase’s floor may improve going forward, and definitely has a case for being the overall WR1 - but at this point in time, I’m rolling with JJ. 

 

Winner: Justin Jefferson

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @RyanR_FF

Dynasty Dilemma: Zach Ertz

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Dynasty Dilemma: Zach Ertz

By Steve Uetz

 

As you seek a Championship in your dynasty league, a question to ask is this:

Is the short-term success with an aging asset worth the potential temporary sacrifice of future talent?

Welcome to the Dynasty Dilemma of Zach Ertz

I find Tight Ends to be a notoriously scarce position group for fantasy football. Since talented youth is often the priority in dynasty leagues, I find myself questioning the proper course of action with 31-year-old TE Zach Ertz. With Ertz’s resurgence in Arizona, I have been asking myself these questions: Is Zach Ertz an exception to the rule of prioritizing youth? Is taking the chance on an older asset worth the potential price of acquisition?

Zach Ertz’s dynasty dilemma began in his final games as a Philadelphia Eagle. Leading into the 2021 season it was clear that he and Eagles were not on the same page regarding a potential contract extension. Philadelphia had expressed their appreciation of Ertz but continued to seek a team-friendly deal for his services.

After a very up and down first six games of the 2021 season, Ertz was surprisingly traded to the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals were seeking to fill the void left by TE Maxx Williams after he unfortunately suffered a season-ending knee injury. Ertz suddenly became fantasy relevant again. In the 11 games he played with the Cardinals, he averaged nearly 7.5 targets and 5 receptions per game totaling 56 catches for 574 yards and 3 TDs.

What is the proper course of action with Zach Ertz? Is he an asset to BUY, SELL, or HOLD?

 

 

The Dynasty Dilemma with Zach Ertz is very similar to that of RB James Conner due to the current state of the Arizona Cardinals organization. As stated in Conner’s dynasty dilemma: in the 2021 season, the Arizona Cardinals reached the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Due to the past seasons’ success and emergence of franchise QB Kyler Murray, Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury and General Manager Steve Keim were given contract extensions through the 2027 season. Ertz currently finds himself with a projected increased opportunity for targets.

RB Chase Edmonds and WR Christian Kirk are now out of town and AJ Green remains unsigned. The pass catching core of the Arizona Cardinals currently looks like this: DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, and Antoine Wesley.

Ertz’s revival in the desert earned him the type of contract that he was seeking in Philadelphia. Ertz was given a 3 year - $31 million deal with $14 million guaranteed. Ertz holds legitimate appeal for the 2022 season being a part of Arizona’s fantasy-friendly offense. He quickly became a reliable target for Kyler Murray on a team that hasn’t had a dependable TE option in a very long time. For the 2022 season he should be considered a back end TE1 due to the unique blend of increased projected opportunity and scarcity at the TE position.

 

 

It is true that fantasy value can be had with aging veterans like Ertz, but the priority in dynasty leagues should be youth. I believe there was a fair reason the Eagles were unwilling to pay Ertz anything more than a team-friendly contract. He simply did not look like the same player in his final season and a half in Philadelphia. While he still contributed to the offense, albeit inconsistently; he didn’t look near as quick or as explosive as he did in his early seasons and Pro Bowl awarded seasons (2017-2019), especially compared to fellow TE Dallas Goedert.

At this point of his career Ertz is most appealing to a very specific type of dynasty team. Strong TE-needy contending teams is where he needs to be rostered. There is appeal to sell since he is most useful to a smaller percentage of teams across your dynasty league. If you are a current Ertz holder and that above criteria doesn’t apply to you; then you should absolutely be willing and looking to sell him to a team that does fit that criteria. It is perfect; even if that strong contending team already has a decent TE, Ertz can still be dangled out for bait as a solid depth piece.

 

There is a case to be made where he is still a valuable hold initially for middling to borderline contending teams where TE depth is needed. This is a temporary hold situation to see where you stand across your league after the first few weeks. In this specific instance, let’s say your team is struggling to earn wins, Ertz should be moved to a contending hopeful. However, if your team is earning wins and you are appearing to be an outside contender after all; I’d find holding to be appropriate.

Ultimately, it would be optimal to trade Ertz away for whatever draft capital you can prior to your dynasty leagues’ rookie draft due to the reasons I laid out above. Or if you start the season with Ertz, it would be opportunistic to move him immediately if and after he pumps out a big game early in the season.

I think a reasonable return for Ertz would be a 3rd round rookie pick plus a young depth piece at a position of need. A strong contending team seeking a championship would benefit from Ertz’s opportunity in the fantasy-friendly Cardinals offense; giving up a 3rd round rookie and a young player would be worth it for both sides.

I do believe there is legitimate reason to be optimistic with Ertz in 2022, however I fear the optimism will be through a shorter-term lens rather than a longer-term lens. Looking through the longer-term lens is where I prefer to consider roster management action. Therefore, he ultimately is a SELL as the short-term value is more palpable compared to the long-term.

 

 

 

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @FantasyLadder for any further fantasy football discussion, questions, or advice!

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