2022 1st Round Pick Comparisons
By Darren Smith
With the NFL draft only a few weeks away, Dynasty managers are preparing for their upcoming rookie drafts. This time of year is when draft picks get traded for veteran players, as picks are at their highest value with rookie fever affecting just about everyone. While this might not be the most loaded draft class, there is still some huge talent that is about to enter the NFL. Dynasty managers, including myself, sometimes have trouble valuing their picks when they are trading them away, or when they are acquiring new picks.
Everyone has different values, but I want to make some comparisons to current players so managers have a baseline to gauge the value of their picks. You don’t want to ship out your valuable 1st round picks for too little, but you also don’t want to overvalue them in trade offers to turn your leaguemate away from the trade. Here are some pick to player comparisons so you know how to value your picks when making trades. Each draft pick will have a comparable Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Quarterback. For the purpose of this article, I am assuming a Super Flex PPR league.
1.01 Comparable Values
DeAndre Swift - Swift is a solid top running back that has valuable receiving talent in PPR leagues.
Cooper Kupp - Kupp was the top WR in 2021, but is getting a bit older so will only have a few more seasons of elite production.
Dak Prescott - Versatile QB that is more valuable than any rookie QB in this draft. High powered, high scoring offense.
1.02 Comparable Values
Joe Mixon - With Joe Burrow leading the offense, Mixon will continue to have the opportunity to score touchdowns, similar to his 13 in 2021.
Devonte Adams - While he no longer has Rodgers throwing him the ball, Adams will continue to have elite production in Las Vegas for years to come.
Deshaun Watson - Deshaun would be worth the 1.01 with his new contract in Cleveland, but still could miss time by NFL suspension.
1.03 Comparable Values
Dalvin Cook - Outside of Breece Hall, there are no other RBs in this class that I’d rather have over Dalvin. However his age and injury history may catch up to him in the near future.
Jalen Waddle - With the addition of Tyreek Hill, Waddle will be poised to have an excellent season if Tua can get him the ball.
Russell Wilson - Moving to Denver may result in some growing pains under a new offense, but Wilson should continue his elite production throwing to Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.
1.04 Comparable Values
Nick Chubb - Being one of the most talented RBs in the NFL, Chubb is only held back by Kareem Hunt stealing touches.
Tee Higgins - I want anyone Joe Burrow is throwing the ball to. With Chase garnering the attention of the secondary, Higgins could explode in 2022.
Matthew Stafford - Now a superbowl winner and the addition of Allen Robinson, Stafford should remain a top QB option until retirement.
1.05 Comparable Values
Derrick Henry - The King returns in the 2022 season despite injury. At 28 years old and still producing incredible numbers, Henry is perfect for a “Win Now” dynasty team.
Diontae Johnson - With Big Ben out of the picture, Johnson will hopefully have a larger depth of target. The Steelers are in the market for a rookie QB in this draft.
Jalen Hurts - The Eagles have made moves to build around Hurts and should be adding some weapons and protection for him in this draft.
1.06 Comparable Values
David Montgomery - With the Bears having one of the weakest WR cores in the NFL - Montgomery should be getting huge volume in 2022, and is shockingly only 24 years old.
Devonta Smith - The Eagles should be adding a WR in this draft, but Smith will remain Hurts’ main target in this offense.
Aaron Rodgers - Losing Adams is a huge blow, but the Packers should add a top receiver in this draft. Aaron is guaranteed to play at least two more seasons, and I expect him to remain a top 8 QB.
1.07 Comparable Values
Josh Jacobs - The Raiders have been building their offense including the O-Line, so Jacobs should have his usual carries with some passing work mixed in.
Mike Evans - The return of Tom Brady is enormous for Red-Zone threat Mike Evans. Chris Godwin may not return until November, so Evans should be the focal point in this offense.
Tua Tagovailoa - The addition of Tyreek Hill is huge for Tua’s game. This is his year to prove that he has what it takes to be the franchise QB for Miami.
1.08 Comparable Values
Travis Etienne - Coming off foot surgery, Travis is poised to be a bell-cow in the Jaguars offense and should take most of James Robinson’s carries away.
Keenan Allen - One of the most underrated WRs in the NFL, Keenan Allen will remain as consistent as ever being Justin Herbert’s favorite target.
Kirk Cousins - Kirk signed a contract extension and should remain a fringe QB1 with elite receiver Justin Jefferson out wide.
1.09 Comparable Values
Ezekiel Elliot - Zeke showed signs of slowing down, but Jerry Jones remains confident that he will be on the field with large volume.
DeAndre Hopkins - DeAndre battled injury in 2021, but I am projecting he bounces back in a big way. Playing only 10 games, he still scored 8 TD’s with the best hands in the NFL.
Derek Carr - The addition of Adams is an invaluable asset to Carr’s passing game. Carr will have a huge jump in value if he gets his contract extension that has been in talks for months with the Raiders organization.
1.10 Comparable Values
Leonard Fournette - Coming off one of his most productive seasons ever, Tom Brady returning, and getting a contract extension all make Fournette a perfect RB for a “Win Now” team.
Elijah Moore - Moore had a great second half of his rookie season, however the Jets have shown interest in adding a top WR like Tyreek Hill which is concerning for Dynasty Managers expecting him to be one of the sole targets in New York.
Mac Jones - Jones didn’t have the flashiest rookie season, but it seems like New England wants him as their guy. We should give Mac another chance to shine in 2022.
1.11 Comparable Values
Elijah Mitchell - Mitchell exploded in the 49ers rushing attack in 2021, but given Kyle Shanahan’s history of a rotating carousel at the position, there are some longevity concerns.
Marquise Brown - Most managers aren’t high on Brown, and I’ve acquired him for 2nd round picks. With a healthy Lamar Jackson, Hollywood will remain his favorite target and is worth a 1st round pick for me.
Tom Brady - Not many expected the Goat to return, but here he is. At 44 years old and his weapons signed to new contracts, Brady is a top QB option until he decides to hand up the cleats.
1.12 Comparable Values
James Conner - Signed to a contract extension and with Chase Edmonds now in Miami, Connor should have a huge 2022 season and could repeat his insane rushing TD numbers (15).
JuJu Smith-Schuster - Kansas City traded away their top WR in Tyreek Hill, and JuJu is now catching passes from the best arm in the NFL.
Ryan Tannehill - While not the flashiest option, Tannehill is still a solid QB that you can add to your team for a cheap price.
If you have a contending team and are feeling confident about your shot at the title this season, but you have some 1st round picks in your back pocket, use these comparable values to add some depth to your team to make a run. If you are in the rebuilding stage but you still have a solid older veteran on your team, send an offer for a first round pick to further your rebuild. While everyone has different values, use this article as a baseline for your trades so you don’t get fleeced for your draft pick, and also don’t turn off another owner by sending a bad trade offer. Agree with me? Totally disagree on my values? Tweet your thoughts to me @FFBirdGang.
Darren Smith has been involved with fantasy football since 2013 and is the commissioner of several Dynasty leagues. He loves diving deep into statistics, making bold trades, and creating fantasy football content. Darren is a die hard Philadelphia Eagles fan, and his favorite position in football is the Tight End as he used to play this position in high school. Recently, Darren has become very involved in the fantasy community on Twitter (@FFBirdGang) and loves posting hot takes, breaking news reactions, and trade polls to help you win that next Dynasty trade to create your championship team.